UK ‘Brexit’ referendum on EU membership – Latest indicators

The latest polls, betting odds, and pound-euro exchange rate suggesting which way the vote might go in the UK’s referendum on EU membership on the 23rd June.

The UK’s referendum on continued EU membership could have a big impact on the Spanish property market, as I recently explained in this article: UK EU-referendum implications for Spanish property market.

The result will obviously be important to Britons in Spain, but it also affects everyone else with an interest in property on the Spanish coast and islands, where the British tend to be the biggest group of foreign owners, buyers, and vendors.

So leading up to the referendum on the 23rd June I’ll publish regular updates on the latest indicators suggesting which way the vote might go: Opinion polls, betting odds, the EUR/GBP exchange rate (the pound goes down as the likelihood of a Brexit increases), plus celebrity endorsements of note.

For what it’s worth, I still think the British will vote to remain in the EU, preferring the devil they know to the one they don’t.


For the last week or so the polls have been neck and neck, but in the latest ICM poll on the 3rd of May, the leave camp were a nose ahead with 45% voting intention, compared to 44% for the remain camp (and 11% don’t know).

brexit opinion polls and spanish property impact


The latest betting odds from Betfair show the remain camp gaining ground as the odds-on favourite falling to 1.3, compared to 3.25 for a Brexit vote. So the bookies think a remain vote is highly likely, and getting more so.

brexit referendum betting odds and spanish property market


The pound has been strengthening against the Euro, suggesting the money markets see a remain vote as more likely.

EUR/GBP exchange rate
EUR/GBP exchange rate


In favour of remaining: President Barack Obama
In favour of leaving: Donald Trump, presumptive Republican White House candidate

SPI Member Comments

Thoughts on “UK ‘Brexit’ referendum on EU membership – Latest indicators

  • Chris Nation says:

    I voted “IN” back in the ’70s because I believed in The Common Market. I’d vote “OUT” this time (if logistics allowed) because I do not believe in The United States of Europe, run fiscally and monetarily from Berlin and socially from Paris. Both these decions are, at bottom, based on sentiment. I am simply not in any position to know how either result will pan out. And neither does anyone else, however much they might insist they do. The Greeks taking to the streets again does indicate that, despite the Pope encouraging us all to be one big happy Eurofamily – music to the ears of Mrs Merkel sitting in the front row – it isn’t going well.

    So, of all the elections in my lifetime, I think this one will be more based on sentiment than any other. Let’s now swop the Latin ‘sentimentFear v Indigation for Anglo-Saxon ‘feeling’ because that’s the word most people will be using. I believe the two overriding feelings influencing anyone’s decision are fear and indignation. Fear of the result of change and indignation in the perception that “Brussels” runs British life.

    Some 15 years ago Douglas Hurd was hesitantly in favour of the EU “as long as it does not interfere with every jot and tittle of our lives”. A great line, which probably only political nerds like me can recall but there is a great deal of indignation in the minds of many Brits who insinctively feel that it does. Say it pours with rain on the day. That always affects turnout. Which feeling will prevail? Will it put off more of the fearful than the indignant?

    • Andalusguy says:

      Whilst an interesting viewpoint, it is equally condescending and rather dismissive in terms of the electorate being able to make a more intellectual assessment of how they should vote. I strongly suggest that the notions of both sentiment and indignation, are those that apply mainly to the senior age group of the electorate as one only needs to read the various comments / observations, which point to a more nationalist and quite narcisstic rationale. There is little in evidence or factual substance in the reasoning. On the other hand our younger generation, having of course a better educational foundation and tolerance towards a multicultural society, are much more inclined to comment from the point of analysis, and with less inclination to be motivated by the prejudicial tendencies of the older generations. Whatever the viewpoint, in or out, this is one of the most important elections to take place in our modern history and one which could result in serious ramifications for rhe U.K. We all should take the time to understand the implications and how these could adversely affect the future of our younger generations.

      • Whoa there! Who’s condescending now? I take exception to the view that “our younger generation, having of course a better educational foundation and tolerance towards a multicultural society, are much more inclined to comment from the point of analysis”. I have a grammar school and university education, speak four other European languages (three totally fluently), have lived in three other European countries and two non-European, and as a past finance director working in a major multinational and an international insurance brokers, have very considerable experience of commenting “from the point of analysis”, thank you very much. However, to do so requires objective facts, not estimates from the Treasury of what will happen in 2030, when they have already on numerous occasions proven themselves totally incapable of estimating what is going to happen a year ahead. And bald statements about an exit threatening our security fail to convince when mass migration from politically unstable regions known to be the base of terrorist organisations already poses an immediate threat to EU countries under the Schengen arrangements.
        What is missing – on both sides – is reasoned debate, based on rigorous analysis of objective data. I live in Spain, but am still on the fence regarding Brexit. Hotheaded rhetoric threatening doom and disaster, based on vacuous assumptions, will do nothing to convince me either way, but to date I’ve seen little else from either camp.

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