This is a website for buyers, owners, and sellers of property in Spain, offering reliable information and resources to help you get things done with confidence. It is run by Mark Stücklin, author of the Spanish Property Doctor Column in The Sunday Times (2005-2008), and the book ‘Need to Know: Buying Property in Spain’ published by Collins.
Anyone keeping an eye on the Spanish property market could be forgiven for feeling a little confused right now. On the one hand official figures show prices falling, though not by as much as you might expect given Spain’s economic problems. On the other hand, annualised sales surged by almost 30pc in August, after 8 consecutive months of growth. These two bits of news are at odds with each other. So what’s going on?
A recent article published by Fotocasa – one of the biggest property portals in Spain – might help to shed some light on this apparent contradiction.
They get data and opinions from various sources to see if a recovery is genuinely under way or if it just an illusion.
Several sources report a recovery in sales starting at the end of 2009 and lasting the first half of this year, driven by the elimination of mortgage tax breaks in 2011, and the rise in VAT this year, both of which brought sales forward, plus low interest rates, and the effort banks are making to shift their stock of property. Fotocasa themselves have seen listings rise 103% in a year, and property searches rise 55%. All of that suggests the market has bottomed out.
Just an illusion
But then along comes Borja Mateo, a self-proclaimed real estate expert, with a plausible reason why the recovery in sales might just be an illusion.
According to Mateo, who has worked with Spanish banks for some years, and should know a thing or two about how they operate, the rising sales figures are just a reflection of the “enormous weakness of Spain’s banks and real estate market.”
Swapsies
The problem is that the official sales figures include what is known in Spain as ‘daciones en pago’, basically debt for property swaps (bank takes the property and cancels the debt). Mateo argues that banks are using swaps to avoid recognising losses they would face in foreclosure and selling at public auction.
The beauty of swaps for banks is they, not the market, get to decide the value of their own property portfolios. “If they were to recognise the real market value of their assets they would be very close to bankruptcy as the market value of their assets is far below the book value of their loans,” claims Mateo, who sees plenty of reasons to suspect the Bank of Spain is complicit in the cover up.
What is worse, banks are also keeping insolvent clients on life support with new loans to avoid having to recognise bad debts, claims Mateo. “The real level of the (banking) system’s bad debts is above 11%, the official rate is 5.5%,” he says. “Recognise real losses would put them (the banks) in a very, very difficult situation.”
Dismal forecast
Mateo forecasts that sales will fall significantly in the near future, thanks in part to end of mortgage interest tax breaks in 2011. Vendors are starting to give ground on asking prices again because “many people realise that if they don’t’ sell in 2010, sales will be much tougher in 2011.”
“House prices and rents will continue falling in the coming years. It’s an unstoppable process,” he concludes.
brianc_li says:
“The problem is that the official sales figures include what is known in Spain as ‘daciones en pago’, basically debt for property swaps.”
A few of us have been saying this for some time on the forum already.
Mark says:
Since writing the article I have spoken to the director of real estate at a middling Spanish bank. He is someone I trust to tell the truth.
He says their daciones are down enormously on last year thanks to the new provision rules from the Bank of Spain. He believes other banks are doing the same.
In which case daciones would not explain the August jump in sales.
He also says that sales have picked up significantly, and they have now reached what he calls a ‘cruising speed’ of monthly sales that are acceptable.
So yet more mixed signals.
borjamateo.com says:
Hi Mark,
thanks for mentioning me on your website. Allow me to correct one of your comments. You say: “a self-proclaimed real estate expert”. This is not correct: I have never claimed myself to be an expert: the people I speak to refer to me as being one. My book “La verdad sobre el mercado inmobiliario” will be available on all bookshpos mid-November as we are about to start to print it. borjamateo.com
Mark says:
Okay Borja. Seems a reasonable credential.
Surveyor says:
I agree with Borja that these are further misleading stats from the Government due to their methods, deliberate or not.
Also to be considered are the many offers of 100+% mortages being given by Spanish Banks. These are leading us down the path that started it all in the US. The mortgages are given over the properties at above market values (probably the value of the original loan of the property they have ‘possessed’). The borrower maybe thinks that there is no harm in that as it gives him a house for nothing or very little. But what if he can’t keep up the payments or needs to move on? He is in an instant negative equity situation, plus the 10+% costs of house sale, and is competing against banks offering 100% when they will maybe only offer a max 70% mortgage on a house they are not selling directly from their ‘stock’. The buyer then either defaults and the bank takes back its property to do the same again, but for a while having removed it from its books and received some payments; or the buyer drops the price to sell it and accepts the loss, and lowers the comparative market value of all around even further. Leaving the bank, the borrower, the neighbours and eventually the country with an even bigger negative value of assets to loan.