In welcome news for tenants feeling the squeeze, a predictive AI tool developed by Spanish property portal Fotocasa anticipates that rental prices in Madrid—and several other major cities—will decline by the end of the second quarter of 2025. The projected dip could mark a subtle yet significant shift in one of the country’s most heated housing debates.
Madrid expected to see a 4.3% drop by June 2025
According to DataVenues, Fotocasa’s predictive rental index powered by artificial intelligence and advanced analytics, rental prices in Madrid could fall by 4.3% between 1 April and 30 June 2025. The system analyses thousands of data points related to housing supply and demand to forecast short-term changes in market trends.
This prediction offers cautious optimism in a city where tenants are frequently confronted with double-digit rental growth and tight availability, particularly in central neighbourhoods.
María Matos, Fotocasa’s Director of Studies, stressed the firm’s commitment to using innovation in real estate: “At Fotocasa, we continue to champion innovation and transparency as fundamental pillars for understanding today’s property market. With our DataVenues Predictive Index, we’re taking a decisive step towards anticipating price trends using AI and deep data analysis.”
Rental pressure easing in other provincial capitals
Madrid isn’t the only city forecast to see a decline. Rental drops are expected across a handful of other provincial capitals, with southern and smaller urban locations seeing some of the sharpest corrections. Predicted rental price changes for Q2 2025 include:
- Badajoz: –14.5%
- Santa Cruz de Tenerife: –6.2%
- Granada: –5.3%
- Madrid: –4.3%
- Toledo: –4.0%
- Córdoba: –2.6%
- Salamanca: –2.0%
- Valladolid: –1.9%
- Valencia: –1.3%
Lighter declines of less than 1% are projected in cities such as Jaén (–0.9%), Santander (–0.2%), Vigo (–0.2%), and Albacete (–0.1%).
Meanwhile, AI models anticipate stable prices—neither rising nor falling—in other key cities, including Barcelona, Málaga, Sevilla, Girona, Almería, and Pamplona.
A breath of fresh air—but is it enough?
While the projected rental declines are modest in most cases, they provide a rare glimmer of relief in what has been a relentlessly upward rental market. Madrid and Barcelona have been under consistent upward pressure for years, pushing affordability concerns into the political spotlight.
What remains to be seen is whether these projected price adjustments represent a short-term blip or an early sign of a more sustainable trend, possibly influenced by an increase in supply, policy shifts, or shifting demand patterns post-pandemic.
