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CURRENCY EXCHANGE: Market holds its breath as France goes to the polls

EDITOR’S NOTE: Luke Trevail, a currency exchange specialist at forex brokers TorFX, looks at the factors driving the pound’s exchange rate in the week gone by.

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The French Presidential Elections takes place this weekend, and all eyes are on what will happen on Sunday. The uncertainty has been weighing on the euro.

Opinion polls are suggesting that it’s a one horse race with Emmanuel Macron likely to trounce his far-right rival Marine Le Pen. The latter was heckled on Friday as she was treading the tarmac for some last minute campaigning, this after an egg was hurled at her on Thursday.

We should know the result on Sunday evening, but the official announcement won’t be made until Thursday 11th. According to the latest poll today Macron was 24% ahead, we remember the EU referendum result and Donald Trump getting in defying the polls who got it wrong but it’s difficult to fathom that Le Pen will be able to turn around such a deficit.

Arguably those of you that are looking to buy euros would benefit from Le Pen getting in, as this will boost the pound as the euro nervously adjusts to the idea of a Brexit style referendum that would seriously damage the EU. Macron is leading the charge, however, which will most likely support the euro, and bring the rate down a touch.

More information on the results will be reported when we get them, but if you’re looking to act on a euro requirement then pray for Le Pen(!) and maybe look to cover yourself depending on how things pan out.

The UK elections will start to come into focus once the dust settles in France. The market is leaning towards a Tory majority, and much like our friends across the Channel, only a surprise result might derail the trend on the rate.

This article is written by a foreign-currency broker working for TorFX, a forex broker established in 2004 to provide foreign exchange and international payments to both individuals and companies. TorFX is authorised by the Financial Conduct Authority under the Payment Service Regulations 2009 for the provision of payment services. Their FCA number is 517320. To verify their authorisation, you can visit the Financial Services Register and search the register using their FCA number. SPI is not responsible for the opinions of guest contributors.


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