When people in the future look back and analyse the “Spanish economic miracle 2013-17” they will ask, how did (nearly) everyone miss the signs?
i) The preceding crisis creates opportunities. Add in the fact that tech knowledge and low cost startups are available to everyone, then many talented Spanish will (and have already) taken advantage, Also…
ii) The Spanish are in an ideal situation to exploit both the English and Spanish-speaking worlds (ie a large part of the planet). Although probably unknown to most posters here, there are Spanish start-ups already growing quickly internationally, some examples being Privalia, Boda-click, Akamon, Twissues, SocialBro, MeTheOne, minube, BrainSins, Digital Legends, Softonic, Zinkia, Fon and Red Karaoke. There will be many many more.
iii) The US market recovering, that will boost the whole world
iv) Even at the low point of the biggest depression since the 30s, the numbers of tourists visiting Spain held up. These numbers will grow further as other economies turn the corner.
v) Again, even despite the woes of the western economies, Spanish exports have grown considerably over the last few years. Spanish businessmen have got the bit between their teeth.
vi) The 160k residency measure, will help to firm up the property market. However, because of the numbers of unsold properties, we won’t see a major increase in house prices – this is a good thing and will enable growth in the economy.
vii) As companies look for low-cost countries to carry out business in Europe, they will return to Spain eg Ford to increase production by 80% in Valencia http://www.intereconomia.com/noticias-negocios/claves/ford-aumentara-un-80-su-produccion-valencia-y-llegara-300000-vehiculos-2012 Other big players will invest more and more in Spain eg Warren Buffet and JP Morgan http://www.thecorner.eu/2012/12/switzerland-spain-top-investing-recommendations-of-morgan-stanley/
As for Spain, Morgan Stanley explained that its “strategy advisers have highlighted Spain as one of the potential surprises in 2013, along other peripheral euro country members.” Spain has been upgraded on economy rankings to the second position–only behind Switzerland–, its best marks since the third quarter of 2009.
viii) Telefonica will be the next Apple, with their plans to expoit big data and mCommerce channels.
Top 5 joke for 2012.
I hope it was a joke.
Not at all – I notice you don’t argue with individual points and links provided.
There are other signs that back up this analysis.
For instance when I state that companies will start to return to Spain (now it’s so competitive) and create jobs again, it’s a point made here:
That same Wednesday, French automaker Renault announced that is looking to hire 1,300 workers for its four plants in Spain following a new deal with local unions. This bit of news highlights the relative strength of our country’s automobile sector compared to those of other European economies. Furthermore, it underscores our growing competitive advantage within the European region.
And when I state that the Spanish can exploit both the Spanish and English speaking markets, nothing illustrates the point better than Spanish IT firms doing well in Silicon Valley:
AlienVault, though, is the greatest story of Spanish success in Silicon Valley. Over the last 12 months the company raised $30 million in venture capital money from Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers, among others, over two rounds of funding. It was the most ever raised by a Spanish tech startup and the first time Kleiner Perkins had invested in a firm founded in Spain. AlienVault’s headcount and revenues have roughly doubled in the last year.
Of course the argument is that talent is attracted away from spain to these new markets. But overall it leads to more business for all:
So, is this trend luring innovation away from Spain? Argente, a serial entrepreneur himself who has lived in Canada, Hong Kong, and now the US, is adamant that companies need to thrive in a big market rather than aim for small or medium size within Spain. Besides, he says, multinationals can still maintain the design team and commercial presence in Spain.
“In the early years in Spain,” recalls Alienvault’s Casal, “our biggest contract was for $250k annually; Arcsight, the American leader, had an $80mn government contract. Our global presence allows us to aspire to this scale.”