Re: Re: Spanish economy in crisis


I have seen perfectly reasonable 2 bed apartments, Marbella, long finished development and fully occupied that were sold at peak for €325k sell this year for @ €180k being close to 45% fall, I simply can’t see them one day selling for €65k being a further 35% to say 75%. It just isn’t going to happen.

Where on earth did I suggest that? The Spanish situation IMO is much more similar to the Irish one than the Bulgarian. The biggest difference being that the Irish market is much more transparent than the Spanish one, as such it has now more or less bottomed out. The Spanish market still has some way to go.

For what it is worth, my guess is that the kind of apartment you have cited will bottom out around the 150k mark in a couple of years time. Allowing for inflation of 3% p.a. that will be the equivalent of 140k in todays money.

I am one of those in the market for such a property. When I do buy it will be a pure lifestyle purchase. That said I simply refuse to buy now while the market is still over valued. I’m not going to throw money away, sun and sangria or not.

It was apparent to me after I did my initial research a couple of years ago that the market still had some way to fall. If I recall correctly at the time you were predicting that the market would turn in 2009. History now tells us who proved to be correct. Having followed the market closely since then I still firmly believe that more falls are in the pipeline.

The bottom line here is that this is fundamentally not a good time to buy. If you want the lifestyle then rent until such time as this market sorts itself out.