Re: Re: So… Are we all agreed that the Euro is here to stay?


The ordinary person in Germany. Netherlands etc. all want to return to their previous currency.

It is not quite as stark as that Katy. I live in NL and would say that, on balance, the majority here prefer the Euro.

Chris, first and foremost fair play to you for fighting your ground. I have always appreciated the fact that you do that. Even when you are wrong. 8)

I do think the Euro will be around for the rest of my life at least. The question to me is, in which shape or form? Yesterday, for the first time, William Hill marked Greece as odds on to be out of the single currency by the end of this year. Whatever you may say about the bookies there are not politically biased. Their odds simply reflect where people are putting their money.

Truth is, I just can’t see Greece lasting in the Eurozone. Their debts, even after a 50% trim, are too great and the economy too structurally uncompetitive for this. Assuming they do pull out, the question is, What happens next?

Things can then go one of two ways. Either the remaining countries circle the wagons, contain the problem and the currency continues more or less as before. Or there are two Euros. One for the stronger Northern economies, one for the Club Med countries. My heart wants the former. My head says the latter.

It is with some sadness that I write this. I’m very much a Europhile. Have long supported the concept of the Euro and been ready to defend it to the many detractors around. I now just can’t see it surviving in its present form.