There is a very good reason why Germany (and their poodle, France) pushed so hard for an EU treaty change; it is the only way that the proposed fiscal union and budget management proposals could be given real teeth.
What will happen now is that an attempt will be made to get agreement between all the governments who said yes.
Many of the governments who said yes to an EU wide treaty change yesterday, knew full well that Britain would say no and it wouldn’t go through. Hence they could say yes safe in the knowledge it wouldn’t happen.
This will inevitably mean negotiations and accommodations e.g. the Irish and their corporation tax rates, the French and their loss of sovereignty etc. etc. These negotiations may succeed but they probably won’t, in which case everyone will sign up to the principles involved but no commitment to the details or any effective punishments for a breach. Nothing much will change from how it is today.
Germany has no real interest in paying the price to fix the current crisis and everyone accepted that the proposals they were trying to get agreed wouldn’t have done that, it was all about not letting it happen again.
In their eyes the current crisis is being driven by market madness and they believe it will pass and hence they only want to put measures in place for the distant future.
The markets of course may not see it the same way and may not oblige by bringing the cost of borrowing down, in which case the Euro is effectively toast. There are several articles being published now that are about what steps to take when the Euro collapses. Here is one on Bloomberg that lists the measures some companies are taking to mitigate the risks.
The measures put in place last week by the worlds major central banks were in response to the drying up of US dollars available to EZ banks. Financial institutions in the US are refusing to lend to EZ banks. The EZ is rapidly moving towards being an area where no one wants to put their money.
Please excuse me for droning on about this, I’m having a slow day. 🙂