Re: Re: Looking back


@logan wrote:

The article actually said this:
RR de Acuña & Asociados expects home prices in Madrid, Barcelona and other major cities to fall a further 30pc in a relentless slide until 2018, but it may be even worse in sunbelt regions where 400,000 Britons either live or own homes.

Not 30% decline next year.

I happily stand corrected, thanks.

It’s difficult to relate to a 30% fall over five years, it can’t mean 6% a year, surely, nobody could predict that far ahead.

How can anyone predict five years ahead anyway? If you turn the clock back five years, to 2007, every single prediction was wrong by a mile, mine included. Our world banks were parcelling up US mortgage parcels and selling them to each other at a pace. Few people understood them, but it didn’t matter, they were going up relentlessly and the bankers were getting bonuses to make your head spin.

What people seem to forget is that the Spanish construction sector was overheated, along with ridiculous bank lending, but had things continued as they were – with people flooding into Spain to snap up homes in the sun – the country’s prosperity would have gone on at a pace.

It didn’t for one simple reason, the cock-up in the US with Fanny Mae and Fanny Mac, I’ve probably misspelt the names, but the word in front surely explains it all.