Re: Re: Euro – One in seven chance it will be abandoned

#103799
zoro
Participant

@Rocker wrote:

Unfortunately, if you extend that logic, then the UK should be moved across the Atlantic and be parked off New York

That happened many years ago (between WW1 and WW2 I’d say)

The UK has far closer ties to the US than the rest of Europe, culturally, linguisically etc. etc. We watch far more US films and TV (for better or worse) than we watch mainland European output and our financial institutions face west far more than they face east. Being in the EU is a matter of expediency, it simply gives us access to another, bigger market so staying out of it isn’t really an option. The Eurozone however, is something else again, in the long run it will either fail or a United States of Europe will need to happen.

I suspect the latter is much less likely than the former. Fiscal unity can only really work if the prosperous areas of a union e.g. UK or US willingly allow tax pounds or tax dollars to be diverted from the richer regions to the poorer regions in much larger quantities than happens at present in the EU. In both the UK and the US national companies are bribed to set up plants or HQs in poorer regions at the expense of the richer regions. London taxpayers pays heavily to subsidise many other less properous regions of the UK in order to create jobs there. Something similar happens in the US. On the other hand, how many German car makers have been bribed by the EU to set up manufacturing plants elsewhere in the EU thus moving jobs from Germany (I exclude VW taking over Skoda, as Skoda already existed).

Secondly for such a union to work there needs to be mobility of labour. In both the UK and the US workers can freely move from poorer to richer regions without hitting language barriers. Language barriers aren’t a problem for EU workers coming to Britian e.g. Eastern Europe, as almost all children in mainland Europe learn English at school from the age of 5. Whereas how many ordinary workers (blue and white collar) in the UK can speak German which they would need to speak to have any real chance of competing with a German worker at a German company e.g. a VW worker on the shop floor.

As much as I’d like the UK to be in the Euro for selfish holiday or expat purposes, recent events have shown that it would have been suicidal from the country’s economic point of view.

Sorry, rant over!

@Rocker wrote:

We, the Europeans, have a benign superpower right on our borders, ready to supply us with all the energy we need, and instead of sending our tankers to Saudi, which could blow up with the rest of the Arab world at any moment, wouldn’t it make sense for them to meet the Russian pipeline at Antwerp?

I’m not sure that Russia could be called benign. It had no problem cutting off gas supplies to the Ukraine for political purposes.