Re: Re: Euribor starting to rise.



I agree with your comments. There is a systemic ECB policy to drive up the value of the Euro against the $ in particular. I think that might also be a hedge against the oil price. Oil is priced in US Dollars and a stronger Euro offsets the impact in the Eurozone.
Economists and investors are currently fixated about the oil price and it’s consequences.
The 1973 Yom Kipper war and it’s impact on the world economy is still fresh in their minds.
Personally I think it’s overdone. Oil stocks are high and much alternative energy has been developed since so high oil costs do not have quite the same impact. Also the House of Saud is increasing production.
The sovereign debt crisis and unemployment in club med countries will be exasperated by higher interest rates and Euro strength. The fact that the ECB seems not to have any concern may well be their nemesis.
They cocked it up in 2008 when they prematurely increased rates causing a more rapid slow down in Germany than was necessary. They have not learned that their mandate for price stability is far too narrow and that this obsession is suffocating the economies of the peripheral EU states.