Re: Re: Costas – When will this market bottom?



@Rocker wrote:

History has a natural cycle and memory fades after a time. After six years of crashed house prices in the early nineties, it didn’t take long for the optimistic investors to return, and they did well until the next crash four years ago. Several on this forum still brag about the money they made, then.

They’ll be back next year, along with a new bunch with short memories. The lure of the sun is simply too strong.

(Considering the demand, a million unsold houses for a country desperate to encourage immigration, is a small hurdle).

You are quite right, the cycle has been famously stated to be 18 years , peak to peak. It matches a mortgage repayment term, give or take – and two decades is enough to erase memories in some people. If we have the same situation as the UK 1989 crash and it is six years before prices start to recover, then the 2008 peak (Tinsa ) will indicate a 2014 start of recovery.

Your maths is therefore a bit suspect, that’s not next year is it? 2014 is three years away.

However, the situation in the costas is a bit different which may indicate an even longer rebound period. Its dependant on UK buyers selling up from the UK to retirement.
In the UK you had a rapid fall in prices, in Spain prices have not fallen in UK terms due to the currency collapse.
In the UK you have steady stream of first time buyers joining the job market, in Spain you have a steady stream of forced sellers due to death, there isn’t a job market for locals to support prices.
In the UK you have a safe and benign legal system that protects and encourages investment, in Spain you don’t.
In the UK you have well paying jobs and a sound economy to provide long term stability, in Spain you don’t – you do nothing and spend money.
The UK isseveral years away from a start of recovery in its prices, until UK residents build up equity again they won’t be able to buy in Spain in their retirement. The younger generation in the UK are looking at a 10 year saving period to build a deposit for a UK property, never mind having £150K spare equity to splash out on a second home in Spain.