I seriously doubt that they’ll extend the 4% IVA. AFAIK it’s not the the transfer tax that’s been reduced to 4% anyway, it’s just the IVA on new builds, so for second hand properties you’ll still pay something like 8% transfer tax this year (I can’t remember the exact amount). Another tax break is coming to an end this year as well (desgravación) so there’s plenty of reasons to think prices will continue to fall next year (and the year after that). Other reasons for falling prices include the fact that unemployment is still going up, banks aren’t lending, and house prices are still over priced when compared to renting. The main reason Spaniards bought houses during the decade leading up to the crash was because they thought prices would continue to rise, and that that would compensate for paying more than they would for renting (and also it was a good way to launder money). Now the illusion of ever increasing prices has burst there’s still a fair way down to go. (as peterHun says, the AVE train will have little effect on house prices in Barcelona).