I don´t think anyone, even I, would disagree with the hypotheses that places in good locations will hold their values better and sell faster than the in less desirable spots.
Indeed I would also concur with your statement
Buy and in the medium to long term you will win
, assuming by “medium to long term” you mean 5 years plus.
Where (I think) we part company is that, for all the reasons I have outlined in previous posts, I feel that this correction still has some way to go. To me this will impact on the price of all properties be they in good locations or bad. That is simple market economics.
For me therefore as a “short term” purchaser (Within the next 24 months) it makes perfect sense to sit on the sidelines and watch things develop.
What will entice me to buy sooner rather than later is to see the property I want, in the area I want, at a price I consider good value. In the particular area (of the CDS) I am looking at, estate agents window prices have hardly dropped at all from their 2007 prices. There are a few reasonably valued properties around but none, as yet, have matched my criteria.
At last cracks in this facade are starting to appear. Only the other day I got a list of six properties from one agent whose prices had been dropped around 20%. Still not enough to my mind but heading in the right direction.
You do have a point, by holding out I may be missing the bottom of the market. Who really knows? What I am taking my guidance from are the best available figures. To me these are the price/earnings ratios, the Tinsa index and the general economy readings. All of these are telling me and any other potential purchaser who cares to seek them out to sit on our money. Frankly I´d rather trust those figures than any ´experts´ telling me that the market has bottomed.