Reply To: Spanish property market 2007/2008 report discussion


@Bernard Hornung wrote:

Clearly Ralita is very close to what is going on in the market in her area today and has made a resonable assumption that in her mind prices will be lower in a year from now.

Do you have to be close to the property market to come to such a conclusion? I’d keep my eye on the credit crunch, global economy, value of the pound against the euro, the perception of corruption in Spanish property, oversupply, and lack of facilities such as water as residents compete with golf courses. When these matters are resolved then I might visit Spain and have a look around.

@Bernard Hornung wrote:

As we get closer to the General Elections in Spain more information as to the true state of the economy is being revealed. Over the next few weeks we should have a greater level of transparency with which to judge more accurately what may lie ahead.

I hear that Spain has a budget surplus which Zapatero says he will spend if Spain goes into recession. I hope he spends it wisely, maybe knock a few buildings down?

@Bernard Hornung wrote:

I remain optimistic in my forecast for a recovery in the medium term, but the immediate outlook is not comfortable and

Why are you optimistic and what do you consider to be medium term?

@Bernard Hornung wrote:

we should carefully consider the comments of Ralita and others who are operating in this market every day. They will be sensitive to a number of additional factors which will escape analysts and journalists.

Are there any analysts and journalists that you would recommend? Just in case Ralita has it wrong.