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I know the La Manga Club quite well.
You are right to note that La Manga and Polaris are worlds apart.
Even if the surrounding markets collapse, I imagine La Manga will hold its ground better than the rest. If you want quality in that area it’s your best option, with the exception of Hacienda del Alamo if you want inland. I expect a flight to quality as people finally realise that buying property is a really big deal, and you had better get it right or else. I expect other developers will start to fold, which should increase the number of buyers prepared to pay a premium for safety and quality. And there is a very limited supply of good stuff around (be careful though, there is bound to be plenty of crap within the resort too – you have to evaluate every single property on its own merits).
Nevertheless, I’m expect prices to drop there over the next year, maybe longer. As you say, there is plenty on the market in La Manga, little of it selling, which suggests prices will have to come down. The coming months will reveal which vendors are serious about selling, and which are simply flying a kite. And if there is a train wreck, then prices will almost certainly come down, though in La Manga’s case I would expect them to fall less and rebound quicker than other resorts in the area.
Sounds like you aren’t in a hurry, so if I were you I would just wait and see for now. Use the time to keep a close eye on the market, what sells, what doesn’t, find out who needs to sell and who doesn’t, and be in a position to move when you see an opportunity at a price you think is good value. No rush, as this buyer’s market is going to last AT LEAST a year in the quality segment, much longer in the rest of the market.
Just my thoughts, and of course I could be wrong.
I had the best curry in all of Spain in the La Manga Club, in the Indian restaurant at the top of the hill by the spa. Not easy to find a good curry in Spain.