Reply To: Euro Zone I/R Up again.



@ashtondav wrote:

as there are many foreign buyers, especially in Spain, who are buying with cash, not mortgages.

Must be your clients, 95% of our clients need a mortgage, and all my clients are foreigners, being mostly British and Irish. My clients are ordinary working people, not affluent.

It depends what everyone understands by “crash”. For me it means drops in prices of 20-40%, for you it means more. I believe we will see anual drops of 3-5% initially (this year and perhaps the next) followed by steeper falls over the next years.

Believe me you will see high unemployment in Spain all having to do with the construction-real estate business over the next years. 18% of our G.D.P. relates to construction/real estate.

For me signs of a creeping recession are: high unemployment, businesses going bankrupt, soar in mortgage defaults in Spain, lack of consumer confidence, lack of property purchasers, lots of “for sale” signs up for years etc…

I have already posted it and will post it again. Spain is not undergoing a recession yet, the roadsigns are all there for those of us who have already endured past recessions. We are only in the initial stages of one.

Perhaps I’m all wrong and everything is ok with Spain’s economy and we are doing just fine.

Yet somehow I have the sneaky suspicion that I’m right. 😉