Reply To: Euro Zone I/R Up again.


Sorry but I can’t think of one housing market that has “crashed” (say a decline of 20% or more) without a major recession, and therefore high unemployment, as well as high interest rates. The USA difficulties have been caused by excessive lending to the sub-prime (‘trailor trash’) market. Not such a problem in Europe (though I do not deny its happening.)

Rising interest rates alone are not enough to cause a “crash” as there are many foreign buyers, especially in Spain, who are buying with cash, not mortgages.

I would expect modest declines (5% to 10%) or stable prices over the next few years. If there is a European recession, however, i would expect a bloodbath along the lines of the 1990 1994 housing crash in the UK (ie 40% to 50% declines). However, there is no sign at all of recession.

As I have said before, when i see the number of cranes and dumper trucks declining I will be convinced.

No signs of that around our way.

Until then i will wait until someone comes on this board and factually states something like “my neighbour bought for £150,000 in 2005 and has just sold for £90,000”. When someone has such evidence please post. Saying that apartments spend 3 years selling is not the same thing at all.