Reply To: Spanish Real Estate Bubble bursts



I meant to reflect that the Spanish market stock psychology has changed after Astroc’s stock debacle. As long as those RE companies held unreal market values (Astroc for example has no land and never had unlike FADESA) the bubble in the “real” world would be sustained to a greater or lesser extent.

Albeit today the market correction put an end to this “irrational exuberance”. For the first time in years the Spanish media at large (public t.v.’s etc) have spoken outloud of an “asset bubble” which was almost taboo in the broad media and always denied by the Government –for obvious reasons-.

Today may well mean a milestone in the construction frenzy of the last years in Spain, a turning point if you so wish. Only time may discern if today’s events will translate into diminishing “real-world” estate values.

My impression is that Spaniards have been crudely awoken by some massive losses and this in turn will end up changing the market psychology and we will see more and more houses up for sale as events unfold.

Personally I doubt property prices will fall more than 30% at most and even so it’s nothing when they have tripled within the last seven years. The problem being of course for those who bought at the market’s peak (mid 2004) or even later.