Money was cheap long before the Yen Carry Trade which is very much in the news these days. The YCT has surely just continued the supply of cheap money. Theoretically this could all unwind and the pack of cards collapse. The cynic in me says that the powers that be will not let this happen.
I would love an explanation of why the property market, particularly in London, took off in 2005? I bought a lovely loft in Battersea in Feb 2001 and put it back on the market when I decided to come to Spain.From November 2002 to April 2004 I hardly had a visit. I received one offer from a Walter Mitty guy whose “cash” turned out to be the stuff of dreams. I then let the flat and sold it in March 2005 off the market to a friend of a friend. I got back the original purchase price plus stamp duty and made a profit of less than a £1000. It was a fair price as I had bought at the top of the market.
My point is, what was so different about the economy in 2005 from 2003 and 2004. Interest rates were heading up in 2005 and the City was doing OK in 2003 and 2004. But, overnight the market seemed to move from famine to feast.
I looked at Douglas and Gordons website for Battersea last November and again recently. The difference was staggering. In Nov there were loads of property for sale. By Feb 2007 virtually everything was under offer. This ties in with City Bonuses. Perhaps I’m answering my own question? Is the London market more and more driven by the success of the City? I suspect it is , so let’s hope the pack of cards has good foundations. As we all know, markets are driven by greed and fear. Get ready for the rollercoaster 🙂