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A study conducted by the research body, Tinsa, into the Spanish coastal residential and holiday home market has concluded that demand for new housing will not increase until 2015.
The Spanish real estate development sector has collapsed since the onset of the crisis in the country and in the same report Tinsa predicts that in 2015 just 50,000 new builds will be completed on Spain’s coasts which would be 58% down on 2012 (120,000).
According to the study 2017 will be the year that sees the unsold new housing stock finally cleared in the coastal areas. Demand for new housing will drop until 2015 and then stabilize at 97,000 units sold per year.
There will be further years of recession for the coastal housing market according to Tinsa -
Some charts to illustrate the Tinsa forecast that demand for new builds will continue falling to bottom out around 97,000/year in 2015:
At that rate of demand, coupled with collapse in new housing starts, the glut of new homes will disappear by around the end of 2017:
They say that demand for second homes on the coast has fallen from 100,000/year in the period 2005-2006 to just 20,000/year now. The trend will continue down until 2015.
They note that foreign buyers are up, but not enough to compensate for the fall in local demand, which will only recover with the economy.
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Some charts to illustrate the Tinsa forecast that demand for new builds will continue falling to bottom out around 97,000/year in 2015:
At that rate of demand, coupled with collapse in new housing starts, the glut of new homes will disappear by around the end of 2017:
They say that demand for second homes on the coast has fallen from 100,000/year in the period 2005-2006 to just 20,000/year now. The trend will continue down until 2015.
They note that foreign buyers are up, but not enough to compensate for the fall in local demand, which will only recover with the economy.
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