- This topic has 62 replies, 21 voices, and was last updated 17 years, 1 month ago by
.
-
Posts
-
-
I guess the Estate Agents were the first to leave the boat, as good rats do.
The buyers remained with the hot potatoes in their hands.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2007/09/07/wboom107.xml
-
-
There is another article.
http://www.in2perspective.com/nr/2007/09/spain-braced-for-housing-market-crash.jsp
They say: “expected rise in mortgage rates may mean a mass exodus from the Spanish market by British owners looking to consolidate their finances.”
Where is the exodus directed to? back home or to Turkey, Bulgaria et al.?
Of course the bubble is global and there is nowhere to hide… -
So this is what we get as credible information on this forum
This is what people are expected to take notice of when coming to this forum for help and advice.
Someone sees a newspaper report and thats gospel and tries to get a reaction.
Suggest this person stops reading newspapers if he or she bases all of lifes decisions on what the press says
Tomorrow is yesterdays news and suggest we keep to facts shall we as this is what is going to keep a sensible reference pointFrank 8)
-
-
Oliver B
Of course they are. 🙂However naming a thread as a free fall on the basis of a stupid newpaper and worrying people who have enough problems is perhaps a little ill though out.
Lets have a look at this so called true report?
Statement . 100 s of estate agents have gone.
Answer . Yep gone to rip off the Brits in another country leaving possibly the more genuine ones and as we know the market has slowed
Statement. Some experts are saying that property prices are 30% overvalued.
Answer . Some experts say the same in the U.K,some experts say areas in Spain are showing signs of opportunity for the canny investor.
Statement . Some are having to sell below what they expected
Answer . Possible could just be the ones that have overvalued their property by the amount the so called experts say its overpriced
Statement .More homes built in Spain than the other countries combined
Answer . No surprise there with the billions spent on the infrastructure with E U money.
Statement . Demand is 10% lower
Answer . Is that all we are talking about and this is a free fall.?
Statement . People are consolidating and moving back to the U.K
Answer . People are consolidating and moving out of the U.K in record numbers and Spain is the top destination
No wonder we are not getting people posting in volume anymore, this is a newpaper reporter trying just like the Trevor McDonald to sell news(any news as long as it fills a spot)Surely this forum is not reducing itself to that level as this thread name suggests.
Frank 8)
-
-
Whether you like it or not it is current news, as is the Euribor rising – this affects real people who have to pay mortgages and ones who have interest only payments now about to convert to capital and repayment, this is not only in Spain but also in the UK – and anyone can see this will have the same knock on effect as it did in the 90’s with the added problem of oversupply and overpricing.
This will affect the Spanish market and property prices, so I would have thought anyone looking at this forum will want to be kept informed by people who find these articles. If there were any good news articles then they would be posted here as well!
Readers are bright enough to come to their own conclusions.
-
Claire
That was regarding the U.K property market I presume and no one can deny that its rather a knife edge situation and that applies to all property, investments and even interest rates in any country.
This is times when big money can be made or lost and almost impossible to predict (unless you are a Telegraph reporter of course) if you could then you could make a fortune,if it goes then it goes big style but at the moment it’s steady as she goes.Gordon Brown says everything is fine so who am I to argue 😕
Frank 8)
-
Here’s another selection of press cuttings for you.
sociedad de tasación cree que el precio de la vivienda puede caer en la periferia
el mundo, viernes 7 sep 07 |
las áreas periféricas de desarrollo de las ciudades pueden bajar de precio en un plazo prudencial, según el presidente de la sociedad de tasación, josé luis estevas-guilmain. en su opinión va a ser muy difícil que los pisos bajen en el centro de las ciudades por la fuerte demanda que todavía tienen, por lo que juzga como probable que en algunos lugares los precios sigan subiendo o se mantengan, mientras en otros sitios los precios pueden caer, aunque no de manera abrupta
el bce mantiene los tipos en el 4%invertia.com, jueves 6 sep 07 |
el presidente del banco central europeo, jean-claude trichet, dijo que vigilará de cerca los riesgos inflacionistas y los mercados financieros, rebajando el tono de su discurso anti-inflación tras mantener sin cambios los tipos de interés de la eurozona al 4 por ciento. trichet destacó que la volatilidad de los mercados financieros en las últimas semanas había aumentado la incertidumbre sobre la economía de la zona euro. “dado el elevado nivel de incertidumbre, se necesita información adicional antes de elevar mayores conclusiones sobre política monetaria”, explicó. “el consejo de gobierno seguirá muy de cerca todos los desarrollos en base a nuestros estudios y, actuando de una manera firme y adecuada en el tiempo, nos aseguraremos que los riesgos para la estabilidad de precios no se materialicen”, añadió
los promotores insisten en el aterrizaje suave
abc, jueves 6 sep 07 |
la asociación de promotores y constructores de españa (apce) sigue manteniendo que el mercado inmobiliario español está asistiendo a un “aterrizaje suave” de los precios y considera que el clima de alarma no tiene fundamento, por lo que insistió en la necesidad de mantener la tranquilidad. los promotores consideran, tras reunirse con el ministerio de vivienda, correcta la potenciación del alquiler para favorecer el acceso a la vivienda a colectivos que tienen cada vez más complicado el acceso a la vivienda en propiedad
Depends on who you are, what you read and whether the cup is half full or half empty, I suppose! -
-
-
Inez
It’s a sad fact that any good news doesn’t sell newspapers.Marks report in the Times attracted much response when it printed bad news however the last one Costa del Come back didn’t have a mention.
Rising interest rates and the inclusion of capital repayments are of course going to be a serious negative issue for many as is the end of some fixed rate deals that have been available.
You above many see the situation at ground level everyday and no doubt you see people looking for answers to their problems and its a sad fact that they do rely on newspaper or T.V reports if they admit it or not.Many have invested in markets and including property in Spain and some perhaps didnt stop and listen or were conned and will no doupt get burnt.
My solicitor happened to mention that a certain solicitor in Spain has just decided and completed on 10 apartments on La Reserva de Marbella he bought off plan so there is always some worse of than some of us.As I have various business and property interest I am the last person not to realize that these are very difficult times and any really bad news could spell panic then problems would really start.
There are however more savers than borrowers so the fact is that all part of the investment merry go round.
Claire , Correct. Thats what I meant as steady as she goes 😉
Had meeeee say so dont want to continue on this as we all rightly so have our own views and opinions.(not alot of time for newspapers have to say,tooo depressing) 😥
Tell you what though at least it brought the forum to life after a very poor day of postings. 🙂
What did stewlanz posting mean ?Stay Cool
Frank 8)
-
One member’s view I respect sums it up for me.
@Pablo Silver or Lead? wrote:
We are only at the beginging of the markets unwinding. There is only one way for property prices to go (as they are a debt backed inflated asset class) for the next few years and it isn’t up or across.
Yes, opportunites for the ‘canny’ invester maybe, but if they’re really canny they won’t be rushing in just yet. And people who purchased in the last couple of years or so with a large mortgage I see dipping into negative equity in times to come.
-
-
anyone i’ve spoken to recently, wouldn’t touch Spain with a bargepole, and that’s before i fill them in with my tales of woe! Many are buying elsewhere though. I think unless Spain cleans its act up very fast, and stops wrecking the already overbuilt coastline, then it will remain the place NOT to buy for a long while.
-
Just Frank wrote:Oliver B
No wonder we are not getting people posting in volume anymore, this is a newpaper reporter trying just like the Trevor McDonald to sell news(any news as long as it fills a spot)Surely this forum is not reducing itself to that level as this thread name suggests.Frank 8)
There are enough sharks estate agents still saying that the profits in Spain are 20%/year. Do you trust them more than you trust newspapers like Telegraph?
-
-
-
-
Claire wrote:The Telegraph also give these awards to OE and the like. The latest awards will be available online on Monday.
Of course newspapers have vested interest and they have huge profits from real estate.
This is why bearish articles are hard to come buy and they signal that the situation is as bad as it gets. Not only in Spain, but almost everywhere.
-
-
Goodstitch – people are still buying in Spain and once speculators get their fingers burned in other countries being promised the earth by the same REA’s as were here until a year or so ago they will realize that while Spain and the southern Costas are currently overpriced and over supplied, the lifestyle decision will be to be here for all the reasons everyone well knows about.
Investors wont buy here at the moment merely because the figures dont stack up and whilst they can buy all in as it were, the unit then has to wash its face – and it doesnt! Im sure your pals (Just Frank) who are thinking of investing here will agree with you.
I have I would say around 40-50 actual buyers sitting on my shoulders wanting property, and I am sure other agents will have the same, but until there is a turn, they will be wary of committing. These guys have money etc and can rent out to wash the face as they promote and actively work at it – professional landlords – BUT until there is a settling, they are hovering.
Also until the banks settle as well. Yesterday locally it was reported that due to the worldwide cereal price increase and demand, prices of staple foods are to increase by 15-20%, whereas the wages wont. So fact is people cant afford to buy and the rentals are way out of the range.
Completions of large developments are still going through adding to the pressure and false statistics of how well the market is doing, BUT more people are buying for lifestyle. Im in the office today after showing a property to a couple living here who want a larger house, and tomorrow Im showing a couple of villas to a gentleman who is retiring out here – so just back to a normal market really.
It will be a very rough ride for a couple of years as the economy wont really bite until the untis mass sold 2 and 3 years ago have finished completing! Thats why its such a slowdown when in reality it would have nose dived.
Location will hold its price and will sell – although I am finding some beachfront stuff sticking but then again its a little early in the buying season.
With regards to the papers – they take their lead from people getting in contact with them as they are in fact usually months behind! The reports now are not news, some of us have known this for a couple of years and in fact the writing was on the wall from the late 90’s!
-
Just Frank wrote:Ralita
Please refer to Katys reply to your question as this would the same as mine.
Wouldnt trust either and certainly wouldnt name a thread SORRY THE MARKET IS IN FREEFALL on the basis of a news paper report.Frank 8)
The market is in freefall and will be for a while.
The big reason: credit crunch i.e. hard to obtain mortgages.
Easy money is over!! -
Ralita
So which paper are you going to use to post your expert opinion today then 😉Ralitas posting replying to Charlie.
________________________________________
@charlie wrote:Talking of contradictions in newspapers, today it’s even going on in the UK!
Daily Express – House Prices Still Soaring
http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/8411Dail Mail – Is the House Price Boom Over?
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/articles/news/news.html?in_article_id=458848&in_page_id=1770Both know news about property sells newspapers….
Maybe the optimists will buy the Express, the pessimists will buy the Mail!Ralita reply.
WOW, are you degrading by reading this junk 😯
______________________________________________—
Maybe. Optimists buy The Express
Maybe. Pessimists buy The MailMaybe Sensationalists buy The Telegraph 😉
End of our conversation I feel,suggest you stick with The Times.
Frank 8)
-
-
Just Frank wrote:Ralita
So which paper are you going to use to post your expert opinion today then 😉Maybe. Optimists buy The Express
Maybe. Pessimists buy The MailMaybe Sensationalists buy The Telegraph 😉
End of our conversation I feel,suggest you stick with The Times.
OK, I do not talk to braindeads anyway. You have no economics understanding.
-
-
-
-
-
‘Citigroup credit traders notch up $600m losses.
Profits plunge 57% as credit crunch write-offs hit three parts of the business.’ -
-
8)
I think it’s been well documented for some time that Spain’s property market especially on the overbuilt Costas is as much as 30% overpriced, the Telegraph article just endorses a fact that most of us know about and serves as a warning to newbie purchasers.
A clear out of the many dodgy agents was needed so good riddance to them. The defaced coastline will never be attractive again due to the greed of the Spanish Government, they get what they deserve, an uncertain future and economy.
I agree with goodstich and others that Spain is not a good prospect to purchase property in for some while as prices are likely to fall further, and, I wouldn’t trust places like Bulgaria, Turkey etc where many dodgy, even crooked agents have fled to from Spain.
-
Why worry about Spanish house prices, when if the following is correct:
“The International Monetary Fund said British property was overvalued by 40% and the growing credit crisis is likely to have a ‘sizeable impact’ on property prices. “
Taken from http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/mortgages/house-prices/article.html?in_article_id=425420&in_page_id=57Does that mean that all lenders are bankrupt?
-
-
-
-
I have had a suprising number of mortgage clients recently that are buying property in Spain – not completing on off-plans mind, actually finding and buying finished new builds or resales.
And I have had even more enquiries from clients with mortgages wanting to remortgage and switch to interest only etc.
I see the market settling as a popular holiday home destination, where people will continue to buy second homes, rather than thousands of investors searching for a quick buck.
cheers
Chris
-
Another couple of points that never seem to be mentioned in the doom-and-gloom articles :-
1. Spain as a holiday destination is still so popular. And they’re not expanding Malaga airport for fun. People continue to come to Spain on holiday. Bulgaria ? Turkey ? No thanks.
2. After the USA, Spain has the largest number of immigrants in the world each year. We keep hearing about hundreds of thousands of empty properties, but these people will need somewhere to live. They can’t all be asylum seekers and Polish plumbers, they’re all in the UK……….
cheers
Chris
-
@latenitetellyvision wrote:
2. After the USA, Spain has the largest number of immigrants in the world each year. We keep hearing about hundreds of thousands of empty properties, but these people will need somewhere to live. They can’t all be asylum seekers and Polish plumbers, they’re all in the UK……….
They’re not in the market for holiday apartments, just normal family accommodation
-
Hi Chris
Re. the subject of this thread, I notice your website states:
“If you are looking for a great investment, take a look at our partners at The Village at Valle Romano. An exciting investment opportunity with low entry deposit, guaranteed rental scheme, and a superb concept in lifestyle property in Spain”.By coincidence there was a question asked re. this development just a couple of days ago. Perhaps you’d like to add something re. this ‘great investment’?
http://www.spanishpropertyinsight.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=2659
-
800 people a day arrive to take up perminent residency in the state of Florida USA and property prices are down 25% to 50% from their peak (Oct 2005) prices. So the lesson for Spain (and the UK where we have circa 750k unoccupied properties), when the key reason for discretionary demand i.e. borrowing to make money on property (which is the vast majority of demand is) dissappears, prices fall (irrespective of all the new arrivals). Once prices fall (which they are) sentiment changes and the whole thing becomes self fullfiling. Bust like booms creat their own momentum.
The era of motivation to lend to the masses, whithout pricing in risk which fueled the artificial rise in prices away from fundimentals is over for a very long time. We ain’t heard nothing yet about the 200 billion in CDO losses financial institutions are going to be coughing up to in the next year or two. Don’t forget its not the direct losses that are the problem its the trillions of paper/book value that is being written down on loan backed inflated assets, that will litteraly bring the house down.
Against this back drop the motivation to lend/borrow money to buy second homes is falling of a cliff, prices will follow.
Thats the way it always works and theres nothing unique about this time, except a lot more people are exposed.
-
-
I can’t remember what the source article was regarding immigrants into Spain, but I clearly remember that it was “after the USA” so it must have been a worldwide figure.
And I wasn’t suggesting that they are all potential purchasers of holiday apartments. But surely those that want to buy holiday style apartments for permanent living should be able to do so ?
And plenty of people coming to Spain to live would be potential long-term renters of apartments ?
You could easily work in Malaga city and live in a “holiday” area like Calahonda – a half hour drive away
cheers
-
Where are all these people going to find work? How will they get mortgages in low paid jobs? (Minimum wage about 600 euros monthly?). There are thousands of empty rental properties right now. I do agree that Spain is a better long term prospect than Turkey or Bulgaria though. There has never been a real demand for all the apartments built in Andalucia it was all fed by buyers wanting to sell before completion…virtually pyramid selling
-
I wasn’t trying to be overly simplistic in matching up incoming people to empty properties. But of course the empty housing figures for Spain are across the country, and presumably many immigrants are heading for the big cities to find work etc.
Clearly it’s a very complicated issue, but I do think that if you work at the holiday rentals you can do OK, and if you position your rental unit right (ie price-wise) then you can rent long term, even if it is at a loss. Occupied with some income being better than empty with none, I think.
I also saw recently that because of mortgage rates (and falling rental prices) it is now cheaper to rent than pay a mortgage. Which for Spanish people, that could get 100% mortgages. it was previously the case that mortgages were cheaper than renting.
-
“Spain as a holiday destination is still so popular”
I don’t think it is. Spain was only ever popular because it was cheap and convenient but nowadays it certainly isn’t that cheap and is no more convenient than any where else. The average british tourist just wants nice weather and a beach and doesn’t have much interest in foreign languages or cultures, so the charms of Spain are lost on them.
Living in the province of Malaga, I notice that it gets only slightly busier in July/August, but even then the roads are still quiet and the beaches / restaurants / apartment blocks are only half full at best.
It never seems to get busy any more and as a resident I like it like this. -
-
-
-
-
-
“These are Official figures published by the World Tourism Organisation – part of the UN”
What was there source ??? Was it independent or passed on ? by the Spanish tourist board. Yes I have read over number of years. The order was (1)France, (2) Spain, (3) Italy. These rating was pre € days.
Slightly of subject:
The royalist will note that France/Italy does have a royal family. One of the justification for supporting our Royal family is that it brings in tourist.
I have never met a tourist who has/was invited by royalty for a cup of of tea or a GT with the late Queen mum.
-
@shakeel wrote:
I have never met a tourist who has/was invited by royalty for a cup of of tea or a GT with the late Queen mum.
Staying slightly off subject….
Ah, but Shakeel – just go to Buck. Palace on a Saturday morning when there is the changing of the guard. You can’t see an inch of pavement from the heaving number of tourists wanting a glimpse of the Royal Guard doing their thing. Same with Windsor Castle.
I used to take foreign student groups for ‘London Weekends’ and these two places were always at the top of their priority list. Madame Tussauds next, to have a photo with the wax works of Princess Diana :wink:.
The whole royal family thing is a massive draw to tourists, in the UK at least, even if they don’t get an invite for a G&T. 🙁 -
Returning to topic, received this unsolicited e-mail today – don’t know how they got my address but there is an apparent discount of nearly 20%, plus it’s fully furnished.
Don’t know if bank valuations are notoriously high, low or true to market price as this will affect whether this is truly a ‘bargain’ or not.Bargain Apartment Elviria
2bed 2bth apartment, Los Patios de Santa Maria Golf
Next to Santa Maria golf course and clubhouse, 10 minutes walk to
pino commercial, elviria, with restaurants, shops banks and
pharmacy, 15 minutes walk to beach including nikki beach and the
don carlos hotel and beach club.
86m2 built plus 35m2 terrace, complete with parking and storage,
cream marble floors, travatino marble bathrooms,
sold fully furnished, at the low price of 259,999 euros,
previous bank valuation on similar apt in this development was 320,000euros.
Email: *****************
or call: **************** -
I received that email a couple of times as well.
There’s no guarantee that a new valuation would be anywhere near the previous one, as things are certainly more conservative now
Of course, the problem for valuation companies, is that if less properties are sold, less mortgages means less valuations, and so on………
-
Visitors to Spain/Andalucia/Malaga/Costa del Sol and/or population increase?
There are some recently published statistics from the government – here’s my analysis of the figures (if anyone’s interested!):1) From Malaga airport authority September 2007 figures.
a. Passengers to date during the year = 10.710.663 (up 4.3% on 2006 so far).
b. Volume of passenger flights up 2.1% on 2006 to date
c. Cargo flights up 14.2% on 20062) From the Population Census done by the Government Institute for Andalucian Statistics to end 2006:
a. Foreign residents now account for 6.6% of the Andalucian population – this figure is an increase of 7.8% on 2005..
b. In Malaga province alone this is a 35% increase from 2005 to 2006.
c. The foreign population overall in Spain only rose by 0.4%, hence Malaga province with a 35% increase is a foreign resident population hotspot.3) From the Government Health Authority, population forecasts:
a. Costa del Sol total population set to rise by 13.2% from 2006 until 2016
b. Comparative population in Andalucia over the same timeframe to rise by 3.65% (hence showing Costa del Sol as population growth hotspot)4) From the Government Institute for Andalucian Statistics, Population Age Profile Forecast:
a. From 2006 until 2050 total Andalucian population set to rise by 11.4%
b. From 2006 to 2050 the age group 64+ set to rise by an incredible 119%. This age group is significantly wealthier than ever before and is also skewed by the influence of the foreign resident retiring population.Have a great weekend
Sarah Dodgson
-
Sara
Thanks very much for that valuable information,I for one appreciate it.If anyone has more details on that apartment in Los Patos I would very much like to have it as if true must be worth a look.
Los Patos 259 ,000 euros with someone on Los Lagos needing to sell at twice this price then either some are in big trouble or something is not right 😕 ( now why do I think that posters will take the trouble view?)
That price is around what they ASKING ? in La Reserva de Marbella.
May be someone very concerned about the the L.F.O situation or perhaps they know something about this development that is not public knowledge.Frank 8)
-
-
Charlie
Thanks anyway 😉Dont know if this is true but just read on another forum that Santa Maria Village has just be given its occupation license.
Everyone will be expected to complete and its said the developer wants back dated fees.
Also the are saying that the golf course is going to go ahead. 😕Frank 8)
-
-
Blimey
Then its Armegedan 😥
Yeh appreciate Los Patos and La Reserva are both not in Elviria.
Not tooo familier with Los Patos but if this is the bench mark then prices really have gone through the floor.
Whats this development like and what have the re-sales values like.
Does anyone know? Inez? when this development was finished and what the purchase price was.Frank 8)
-
- The forum ‘Spanish Real Estate Chatter’ is closed to new topics and replies.
