House price forecasts according to the Bank of Spain

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    • #56374
      Anonymous
      Participant

      I thought this article was interesting..

      https://www.spanishpropertyinsight.com/buff/2011/09/30/house-price-forecasts-according-to-the-bank-of-spain/#more-6649

      “… According to the Bank of Spain’s economic models, Spanish house prices could fall as much as 38pc from peak-to-trough before bottoming out in 2012, in their worst case scenario”

      And then this article…

      https://www.spanishpropertyinsight.com/buff/2011/09/30/spanish-president-zapatero-sells-holiday-home-at-38pc-loss/#more-6654

      “… Zapatero and his wife have finanlly managed to sell their holiday-home in Vera (pictured above), for a loss of 38pc”

      And my own personal experience

      2004 off plan price to sold price Feb 2009 31% loss

      I give the first article zero credibility, since peak 2007 price to date we are already past the worst case scenario, whilst still addressing the worlds economic problems.

      Peak 2007 to trough will be in the 50% region or more.

    • #106051
      Anonymous
      Participant

      @jp1 wrote:

      ….I give the first article zero credibility, since peak 2007 price to date we are already past the worst case scenario, whilst still addressing the worlds economic problems.

      Peak 2007 to trough will be in the 50% region or more.

      I hope it’s the Bank of Spain’s report and conclusions, rather than my article, that you give zero credibility 😯 . If you read to the end of the article I add my opinion, for what it’s worth, that prices will bottom out 40-50% down. I could be wrong, of course: they might end up down by more than 50%.

      The thing is, the BoS will probably end up right according to its own figures 😉

    • #105851
      Anonymous
      Participant

      @jp1 wrote:

      ….I give the first article zero credibility, since peak 2007 price to date we are already past the worst case scenario, whilst still addressing the worlds economic problems.

      Peak 2007 to trough will be in the 50% region or more.

      I hope it’s the Bank of Spain’s report and conclusions, rather than my article, that you give zero credibility 😯 . If you read to the end of the article I add my opinion, for what it’s worth, that prices will bottom out 40-50% down. I could be wrong, of course: they might end up down by more than 50%.

      The thing is, the BoS will probably end up right according to its own figures 😉

    • #106052
      Anonymous
      Participant

      Yeah it was the Bank of Spain report I was referring to of course (cough… cough…).

    • #105852
      Anonymous
      Participant

      Yeah it was the Bank of Spain report I was referring to of course (cough… cough…).

    • #106053
      Anonymous
      Participant

      I hope the buyer of Zapatero’s property found out the value at the Hacienda before buying.

    • #105853
      Anonymous
      Participant

      I hope the buyer of Zapatero’s property found out the value at the Hacienda before buying.

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