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Well spotted Chopera. Ambrose is well aware that certain parts of the Spanish economy are now performing well, and that he (and the Telegraph) need an excuse if things don’t go belly-up as predicted by them at the weekend. He’s still put in enough gloom to be blamed on the EU. In the mean-time what does this show the UK if a country bound to the single currency can outperform the pound-laden UK?
Spain is making heroic efforts to adjust. Officials are rightly proud that exports are flourishing, keeping pace with those of Germany. Shipments have risen 15pc to Africa and 13pc to Asia over the past year, as struggling firms scour the world for a lifeline.
For the first time in living memory, the country is clawing its way back to competitiveness without a devaluation. Total exports in January and February were up 5pc from a year before, a startling contrast to the 3.2pc fall in Britain, where the long-awaited fruit of devaluation never seems to arrive.
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@DBMarcos99 wrote:
Well spotted Chopera. Ambrose is well aware that certain parts of the Spanish economy are now performing well, and that he (and the Telegraph) need an excuse if things don’t go belly-up as predicted by them at the weekend. He’s still put in enough gloom to be blamed on the EU. In the mean-time what does this show the UK if a country bound to the single currency can outperform the pound-laden UK?
Spain is making heroic efforts to adjust. Officials are rightly proud that exports are flourishing, keeping pace with those of Germany. Shipments have risen 15pc to Africa and 13pc to Asia over the past year, as struggling firms scour the world for a lifeline.
For the first time in living memory, the country is clawing its way back to competitiveness without a devaluation. Total exports in January and February were up 5pc from a year before, a startling contrast to the 3.2pc fall in Britain, where the long-awaited fruit of devaluation never seems to arrive.
AEP has always been quite sympathetic towards Spain, he regards it as being the prime example of a country that has tried its hardest to do what has been asked of it by the EU, while at the same time the EU (or ECB to be precise) conducts a monetary policy designed to destroy Spain’s economy.
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@Chopera wrote:
@DBMarcos99 wrote:
Well spotted Chopera. Ambrose is well aware that certain parts of the Spanish economy are now performing well, and that he (and the Telegraph) need an excuse if things don’t go belly-up as predicted by them at the weekend. He’s still put in enough gloom to be blamed on the EU. In the mean-time what does this show the UK if a country bound to the single currency can outperform the pound-laden UK?
Spain is making heroic efforts to adjust. Officials are rightly proud that exports are flourishing, keeping pace with those of Germany. Shipments have risen 15pc to Africa and 13pc to Asia over the past year, as struggling firms scour the world for a lifeline.
For the first time in living memory, the country is clawing its way back to competitiveness without a devaluation. Total exports in January and February were up 5pc from a year before, a startling contrast to the 3.2pc fall in Britain, where the long-awaited fruit of devaluation never seems to arrive.
AEP has always been quite sympathetic towards Spain, he regards it as being the prime example of a country that has tried its hardest to do what has been asked of it by the EU, while at the same time the EU (or ECB to be precise) conducts a monetary policy designed to destroy Spain’s economy.
Yep – see this example
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/8322035/Vibrant-exports-will-save-Spain-and-perhaps-the-euro.html -
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@angie wrote:
Don’t think so, that article was written 13th February 2011, over 2 years ago, a lot’s got worse since then 🙄
You missed the point – AEP was starting to praise Spanish export growth even back in 2011, and is now pointing out it’s continuimg to grow, at a time when the UK’s falling – even with the “advantage” of being outside the Euro.
By the way, the next step for the gloomster is “Export levels aren’t big enough to make an impact”.
Wrong.
Exports of goods and services account for 33% of Spanish GDP now, having grown 50% in 5 years. -
And there’s me thinking I’d thought you’d missed the date! 🙄
Re your ‘Gloomster’ thing about some of us, I think you’ll know full well that we don’t actually write the scores of articles we link to (mainly written by economists), just point them out as a balance as people thinking of relocating to Spain may not be aware of such problems.
I’ve pointed out to you that IMO you must be relieved you haven’t moved to Madrid yet with property prices predicted to fall another 30%, you must be pleased you still live in London with rising property prices, assuming you own your place, and I’ve pointed out how you can achieve a sale and more money with ‘home staging’ whether in the UK or Spain, so it’s not all ‘Gloomster’ news 😉 It can be done even in Spain 😉
If there are now 2.25 million homes for sale in Spain, up a quarter of a million, this is not good as it put further downward pressure on Spanish property prices, so it’s only good for potential buyers who can make lower offers, but of course bad for sellers 😉
Debate is good 😛
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If there are now 2.25 million homes for sale in Spain
Well are you really sure there are 2.25 million homes for sale?
You’re probably referring to the census figure (closer to 3 million iirc) of unoccupied homes – but that includes a lot of family homes eg village homes for the August and Easter getaways, but which are classified as unoccupied otherwise.
Still far too many available homes around – but that is excellent news for first time buyers, and those seeking a bargain. I was told by a friend this week it’s possible to get a place in Andalucia for 38k now (away from the coast). You’d pay more than that for a garage where I’m based in the UK! -
There has always been cheap houses away from the coast. Most are in a shocking state, some better to knock down and rebuild. Then there are many without utilities and of course, the illegals! Another demolition order in todays Sur I Pizarra, plus a €200,000.
Ancona said yesterday houses aren’t selling even with 50% off.
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No, I’m not sure there’s 2.25 million homes for sale, who is, I expect it to be higher IMO, that figure was mentioned by Acuna in the lead article which chopera posted to start this topic, so I took it from there, I thought you had noticed it in the article 🙄 I don’t think Acuna was referring to the census count 🙄
Low prices are good news for buyers, but I would put a caveat on that by saying ‘if they’re in goodish areas though’, if such are available in those areas. Low prices in bad or run down areas are not good unless you can sit it out for 20 years +. I think there are still properties for £1 in some of the UK’s run down Northern town, or there were no so long ago, but I wouldn’t buy those despite it being UK ❗
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There are plenty of cheap properties off the coast and in fairly remote areas of Spain, but what do you do if you live there? We know a Brit. couple who bought a little house an hour or so from Malaga I think it was around the Competa area, we went there once, whoa 😯 🙄 We came off a sort of semi main road, then went down this tortuous dirt road with great pot-holes, passing the odd house en-route at 3-5mph max, taking ages, neighbours large barking dogs jumping out in front of us, fortunately it was dry but Winter is a nightmare, cutting wood to keep warm, and paraffin/calor gas heaters, arrived at a pretty little house worth very little, and they live there full-time going stir crazy painting pictures and a bit of car mechanics to get by, no money to fall back on. 🙁
Apparently like lots of Brits. they thought it was a lifestyle they were buying in the mountains on a warm sunny day (didn’t think of viewing in the rain with cloud obscuring views) with like-minded Brits, (all builders or mechanics, but not in their previous lives), have occasional barbecues and drink each others’ beers and wines and that’s about it. 😯
How much were these tiny houses? 30-50k ish, needing mod cons and enlarging, all thinking they would sell this dream on for 80-100k and getting caught up in this Spanish property crash. Been there so long, they couldn’t afford to return if they wanted.
So, a long uncomfortable chassis crunching trip using their battered vehicles and lots of fuel just to post a letter, buy a loaf of bread, or anything. Sounds a nightmare and probably is 🙄
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Angie, I think you’re right about many people not thinking things through. In my search there have been many lovely looking properties that are miles away from the nearest shop, and reading the small print, if an Estate Agent tells you that a 4×4 is needed, then you know it’s bad.
Luckily I know exactly why I’m looking for property, and what I need. If I turn down one of those roads to view a property and it is as you describe, I won’t even bother getting out of the car. 😆
Having said that, there are so many nice looking, fairly modern properties on the market for next to nothing, I don’t know why anyone would be looking to buy something a few thousand Euros cheaper to do up. I would imagine that most of the time it would be cheaper to buy something already in good condition.
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@Daryl wrote:
Having said that, there are so many nice looking, fairly modern properties on the market for next to nothing, I don’t know why anyone would be looking to buy something a few thousand Euros cheaper to do up. I would imagine that most of the time it would be cheaper to buy something already in good condition.
DBelieve me it is. We bought a magnificent old Cortijo close to Ronda. We thought it just needed updating 🙄 The tiles in the lounge were about 2 inches thick and we couldn’t leave them…they were black 😆 Every job carried out found two more, floors up, rewiring, walls broke into, new water pipe to boundary. When it was all hunky dory..after months of inconvenience we had already decided we didn’t want to live there. Our nearest neighbour was a toothless old hag with dementia who had the habit of wandering in! I could write a book and it wouldn’t be one of those “how to restore a Finca” optimistic ones
We viewed one at the back of Nerja. The route started driving across a dried up river bed (well, it was August, imagine winter!). Then onwards and upwards on an unmade road that was so steep I thought we were in danger of sliding backwards when slowing down. When we arrived the only thing behind the house was huge satellite dishes, phone masts etc. Looked like Jodrell bank…nice sea views 😆 😆
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This topic headline is very apt, further evidenced by this article about Spain’s 1st balance of trade surplus for 42 years which appeared to spell good news but explained, is pretty bad news and a stark warning in it’s last paragraph! 😯 🙄
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-05-17/ugly- … r-40-years
Daryl, I think you are going about things the right way in Spain, you seem to know what you want and what to avoid so good luck there 😉
Katy, your experiences should be in book form as they would serve as an eye-opener to the inexperienced, you gained a lot of knowledge through good and bad times, but many of your posts make fun reading too, so good news there 😉 😛
The thing is, both of you know all about this ‘lifestyle thing accessed over bomb cratered roads in Spain’ that so many fall for 😉
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Exports of goods and services account for 33% of GDP now, having grown 50% in 5 years. And they are still growing.
But it’s not just the exports that will save Spain, it’s other areas – like all the car companies increasing production in Spain eg Ford, Nissan, Renault and Volkswagen.
It’s also the increase in tourism from the likes of Norway and Russia, that will have an impact. It’s true that numbers from the UK will stagnate, or remain broadly level. But do the math. If the average Russian tourist spends 159 euros per day (compared to the poor Brit who spends just 93 euros) that is quite an increase in tourism income.
http://www.eturbonews.com/33596/big-spending-russians-boost-spains-tourism-industry -
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Surplus is achieved as imports have fallen, and exports have risen.
Spain the only only major country in the Eurozone to have increasing exports in the first quarter (and stll rising btw) http://cincodias.com/cincodias/2013/05/17/mercados/1368784051_002442.html
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@angie wrote:
This topic headline is very apt, further evidenced by this article about Spain’s 1st balance of trade surplus for 42 years which appeared to spell good news but explained, is pretty bad news and a stark warning in it’s last paragraph! 😯 🙄
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-05-17/ugly-truth-behind-spains-first-trade-surplus-over-40-years
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The article implies that falling imports are a bad thing because it implies the country isn’t growing. However might it just be that the Spanish are buying domestic products rather than imported ones?
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@Chopera wrote:
@angie wrote:
This topic headline is very apt, further evidenced by this article about Spain’s 1st balance of trade surplus for 42 years which appeared to spell good news but explained, is pretty bad news and a stark warning in it’s last paragraph! 😯 🙄
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-05-17/ugly-truth-behind-spains-first-trade-surplus-over-40-years
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The article implies that falling imports are a bad thing because it implies the country isn’t growing. However might it just be that the Spanish are buying domestic products rather than imported ones?
Yep. And remember that the population has fallen a little, after years of growing. Which makes the export performance even more impressive.
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Exports rose 3%, Imports fell 15%, don’t think it was because people were buying Spanish products, more that retail sales were down in Spain generally and have fallen for 33 months in a row having fallen 8.9% year on year in March.
So, IMO the Zero Hedge article and others on the same subject appear to be giving sound reasons why this surplus is not quite what it seems 🙄
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I am not suggesting that people are buying Spanish made products and that is why the imports have collapsed, I was only pointing out the reason the balance has been achieved.
Besides no matter how much the Spanish labour cost has fallen. It cannot compete with China, India, Brazil etc and as result the imported goods will always be cheaper..
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@angie wrote:
Exports rose 3%, Imports fell 15%, don’t think it was because people were buying Spanish products, more that retail sales were down in Spain generally and have fallen for 33 months in a row having fallen 8.9% year on year in March.
So, IMO the Zero Hedge article and others on the same subject appear to be giving sound reasons why this surplus is not quite what it seems 🙄
Yep, everyone can see that but marcos…the new king canute 😆
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@katy wrote:
@angie wrote:
Exports rose 3%, Imports fell 15%, don’t think it was because people were buying Spanish products, more that retail sales were down in Spain generally and have fallen for 33 months in a row having fallen 8.9% year on year in March.
So, IMO the Zero Hedge article and others on the same subject appear to be giving sound reasons why this surplus is not quite what it seems 🙄
Yep, everyone can see that but marcos…the new king canute 😆
Even the Telegraph would disagree with you.
Total exports in January and February were up 5pc from a year before, a startling contrast to the 3.2pc fall in Britain, where the long-awaited fruit of devaluation never seems to arrive.
It’s also looking very promising now that unemployment is looking like falling in Quarter 2 (April-June), Quarter 3 and even Quarter 4. Or do you hold a different position?
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The correlation between economic fortunes and population rises and falls, at present Spain’s population is shrinking with immigrants and Spaniards leaving to find work abroad, the figures don’t take into account many Spaniards who’ve left but they are still on the census.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-busin … e11533946/
There are soooooooo many links mainly by economists (so assume they’re intelligent and unbiased) who all say much the same, ‘Spain is very clearly a ‘bust rather than ‘boom economy’ or as Mercator says ‘with an unbelievably bad economic outlook’, it cannot be dressed up as anything else, and whilst other countries are in a mess, this is about Spanish Property Insight 😯 🙄 It will further impact on other countries too 🙁
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@angie wrote:
The correlation between economic fortunes and population rises and falls, at present Spain’s population is shrinking with immigrants and Spaniards leaving to find work abroad, the figures don’t take into account many Spaniards who’ve left but they are still on the census.
There are soooooooo many links mainly by economists (so assume they’re intelligent and unbiased) who all say much the same, ‘Spain is very clearly a ‘bust rather than ‘boom economy’ or as Mercator says ‘with an unbelievably bad economic outlook’, it cannot be dressed up as anything else, and whilst other countries are in a mess, this is about Spanish Property Insight 😯 🙄 It will further impact on other countries too 🙁
Exports up. Unemployment starting to fall. Even car sales up in April.
You can keep denying all you like Angie – they have turned a corner, which is good news for the Spanish people. But don’t worry – property prices will stay low for a good while yet, making it an attractive place to buy. You do want that, don’t you? -
So you keep denying all the economists too, I know who I’d rather believe! 🙄
Here’s another from Mish’s Global Economics ‘Spain is in a national emergency with no consumer spending, no credit and no job creation, coupled with strongly rising unemployment’, seasonal adjustments have shown a small decrease in unemployment, but overall it’s expected to rise to just under 30%, before turning the corner. 😯 😮 🙄
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Unemployment down…seasonal, people leaving to work in UK and Germany etc. People leaving the unemployment register because they are out of benefit. Lets see at the end of October.
Car sales up…again seasonal. The time of the years when car hire companies renew their fleets.
Marcos would probably deny the holocaust if it had happened in Spain 😉
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@Daryl wrote:
I wonder how export figures are calculated. For example, in the UK a large proportion of our exports are not physical goods; they are concerned with IP, so is that reflected in the figures?
D
I guess if money actually flows from outside the UK to inside the UK then it counts as an export, although I’m no expert. I always assumed tourism to be an export because money enters the country from overseas and is spent there. However last time I checked tourism didn’t figure in Spain’s export stats.
Growth is another measure that needs to be taken with a pinch of salt. If I pay you €5 and then you pay me €5 then that counts as economic activity. If next quarter I pay you €10 and you pay me €10 then that counts as an increase in economic activity, i.e. growth. All those empty flats on the costas? If the government paid somebody to knock them all down then that would count as growth. Not exactly productive but it still registers as part of the gross domestic product.
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El Corte Ingles is restructuring 5 billion euros of debt as it faces a collapse in consumer confidence, another indicator as to why retail sales are falling so dramatically in Spain, and, maybe one reason why imports have also fallen so much 🙄
We visited two of their stores recently and noticed how quiet they were, they had sales on lots of departments, staff hanging around doing little, looked in trouble and now confirmed in this article.
However, excellent inexpensive tapas in store 😉
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La Canada midweek was noticeably quiet and full of sales too while we were there chopera, I think people have stopped buying as they once did 😮 Golden Mile was quiet too 🙄 Estate agents very quiet too 😐
We like El Corte Ingles, but it did seem like a bomb had gone off in-store 🙄
I think people are waiting everywhere for the next Eurozone or Worldwide event 😉
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Of course, as mentioned elsewhere – the Russians are now the biggest buyers (in terms of hard cash) in Alicante, having taken over the top spot held for so long by Brits. Will the numbers of Russian holidaymakers (and buyers) continue to rise? I suspect so, for at least a couple of years yet. Like the Brits in the 70s/80s, the Russians have found a holiday destination that is convenient, gives them the warm sunshine they crave with freedom to boot.
http://www.donsento.com/en/noticia/13/russians-lead-real-estate-investments-in-alicante/
British, Russian and Norwegian are the foreigners who lead the property sales in Valencia. Russians are the ones who have seen a greater increase in the last two years. The British bought 2,286 homes in the community in 2012, followed by the Russians with 2,016 , double the figures on 2010 and the Norwegian with 1,467. Russians lead the investments with 877 million euros in the last 3 years facing the britih with 843 million.
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Spain’s housing market price crash has a long way further to drop, good luck Russians 🙄
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@angie wrote:
Spain’s housing market price crash has a long way further to drop, good luck Russians 🙄
Hah! It’s the low cost of housing (and low prices generally) that is generating increasing numbers of Russian and Norwegian buyers! Great news for the Spanish economy. 😀
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@katy wrote:
Same as I said in the other Russians are coming thread. Anyone who has been connected to Spain will remember these stories have been around since 2002 😆 Should actually be…some Russians are coming 🙄
So your denial stage has changed from “it’s not happening” to “it’s only happening a little”. 😆
The trend is there to see. And I don’t remember seeing such stories in 2002 – why would there have been at that point?The number of visitors from Russia surpassed one million last year for the first time, totalling 1,206,227, a 39.8 percent jump over 2011 and double the amount that arrived in 2010, according to tourism ministry figures.
Tourism officials credit a rise in the number of direct flights to Spain, easier visa rules, and the growing appetite of Russia’s rapidly expanding middle class for foreign travel.
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@angie wrote:
Hah! Marcos, but Mark was elated by saying it’s ‘values that count not volume’, whereas most economists would point to volumes that are needed which is pretty obvious to solve this huge overhang of properties for sale 🙄
I wasn’t elated about anything, thank you. I was just making the point in an obviously jokey way that the amount of money you get is typically more important than the volumes you sell. If you sell lots of units at a loss, then you just make a bigger loss with every unit you sell. But of course Spain needs to sell lots of homes, so volumes are important too.
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@mark wrote:
[typically more important than the volumes you sell. If you sell lots of units at a loss, then you just make a bigger loss with every unit you sell. But of course Spain needs to sell lots of homes, so volumes are important too.
Volume has always been Spain’s business model. Stack em high and sell them cheap. Applies to tourism too, third rate hotels, package tourists, cheap booze.
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If you sell lots of units at a profit as many businesses do, you also make profits, and Spain needs to shift it’s ever growing property glut, that’s what they need to work on, but they’re not. Smaller numbers of expensive properties to Russians isn’t going to do it, they are not all rich either. Trouble is Mark, Spain got greedy, built too many shoddy properties and then started to ratchet the prices up with maybe the World’s biggest property boom, or con, most overseas buyers can see through it now. Can remember the overload of Spanish property adverts in the Sunday Times when you were Spanish Property Doctor and other papers all offering cheap inspection flights, and sales guys saying ‘people are queuing so be quick’, one of the largest unregulated cons of all time IMO. 😡 Don’t remember many warning signs then 🙄
I said earlier, most countries’ populations are now struggling, those heady days are gone for some while now 🙄
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