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Have your say on the state of the Spanish property market.
At the end of my article published online in today’s Sunday Times there is a section for leaving your comments. If the debate is good enough it might lead to a follow up based on your views, so please get stuck in.
http://property.timesonline.co.uk/tol/life_and_style/property/overseas/article1742590.ece
Mark
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“a fall in the Spanish stock market as jittery investors dumped construction stocks in April.”
Mark, why do you think the investors are Jittery ? These are normally fund managers and have very extensive knowledge, statistcs and in the case of Spain dare I say insider info on a sector of economy in the case of Spain the sector which has largly been under pinning the economy.
You say it is “Affecting domestic market” The laws of demand and supply does not differenciate between domestic or non domestic. It does not ask wether you are going to show a passport or an identity card when buying. Can you please expand on this.
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Jittery because there has been plenty of recent evidence pointing towards a slowdown in the Spanish housing market. A correction in share prices was expected; it was just a question of when.
I mentioned the domestic market to make the point that there is more to the Spanish housing market than holiday homes on the coast. The property companies quoted on the Madrid stock exchange do more business with first homes in places like Madrid than holiday homes.
I don’t know what you mean by an ‘edit warning in red’. I can’t see anything that might fit that description on this page.
Mark
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@shakeel wrote:
Why my post has an edit warning is red ???????????
Are you sure it’s not the delete symbol (white cross in a red circle) by the edit box?
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Thanks Charlie,
If only I could have spent time at the Tapas bar. I thought it was something on those lines but was not sure. Me and technologly are on parallel planets.I, was politely remided by Mark some time ago that word prosseing in block letter meant that I was shouting. All I thought that it would make it easier and will make my stand out.
This is the problem when you work from home. There no interaction on small matter
Cheers
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@shakeel wrote:
Me and technologly are on parallel planets.
Me too………..I’m just lucky enough to have a good friend who explains everything.
When I got my first computer, I used to log off by pulling the plug out…… 😳
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No, but they had a simple on/off button, you didn’t have to click on loads of things first to ‘close down’.
Think we’d better get back ON TOPIC…..Mark will get excited at seeing so many replies on his thread before he realises it’s just us too lazy to go to bed.
The current state of the property market in Spain? Bit like Shakeel being near anything technological (like delete buttons) –
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Apologies if I am stating the obvious here but it is important to distinguish between the shares of property companies and bricks and mortar property. They are different asset classes with the former being much more volatile. A fall in the former does not necessarily mean a collapse in Spanish property prices is a racing certainty, but it is a good indication because stockmarkets anticipate future events and price in both good and bad news beforehand. There will be an inevitable time lag if property prices collapse or there is a recession but we ignore the markets at our peril. As ever location, quality and individual factors will determine the specifics for any particular property.
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@Mikegrant wrote:
Apologies if I am stating the obvious here but it is important to distinguish between the shares of property companies and bricks and mortar property.
Isn’t “Bricks and mortar” an English term?
When referring to investment in some of these Spanish new-builds I think the professional term is: “Breeze block and plasterboard”
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In the stocks and shares world, of which I know a little, this kind of major withdrawal of capitol in major companies is rarely because of a predicted crash. It seems major share holders in some large Spanish contstructors and developers are relocating their funds.
This usually means they have decided they have made good gains on their original investments and have found something better to invest in. Most really serious investors will never cash in their shares and put the money in the bank. Even in a crash situation they will move their funds into something else straight away.
These people all use the top investment advisors, they move in the same circles and receive the same advice. I´m sure there is a new investment with good returns about to come into play and they are on to it.
Yes they are well aware the Property market has peaked, so now is as good a time as any to invest in some new idea. In time we may work out what it is.
If we knew what it was we would be as rich as them.
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So what you’re saying in a roundabout way is. The insiders know whats comming and have bailed.
The markets been flat for 2.5 years now it will fall for the next 3 to 4 years depending on what happens to the world economy.
http://uk.reuters.com/article/personalFinanceNews/idUKNOA94111720070509?rpc=401&&pageNumber=1
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Pablo, what I said was there is most likely something better for their money than remaining in the property sector.
The market in my area has only recently shown significant dips, we were doing very nicely until mid 2006.
Investing in stocks and shares is quite different to investing in property. These people move in different ends of society, usually where the real money is. They follow trends abroad, usually in the USA. Eventually it arrives in Spain, or Europe as a whole. For example .com companies, Europe was very slow in catching on to tech stocks.
As I said in an earlier post, it looks like they found the next big thing!
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@Paddy wrote:
In the stocks and shares world, of which I know a little, this kind of major withdrawal of capitol in major companies is rarely because of a predicted crash. It seems major share holders in some large Spanish contstructors and developers are relocating their funds.
I believe that a share is valued according to its book value and the prospect of future earnings. If the future income looks bleak it may well mean that the company’s assets, property yet to be sold, are worth a lot less than previously thought. It’s what makes the property market volatile.
@Paddy wrote:
This usually means they have decided they have made good gains on their original investments and have found something better to invest in. Most really serious investors will never cash in their shares and put the money in the bank. Even in a crash situation they will move their funds into something else straight away.
These people all use the top investment advisors, they move in the same circles and receive the same advice. I´m sure there is a new investment with good returns about to come into play and they are on to it.
They don’t seem to move in the same circle as those who invest in different sectors of the economy which continue, for the present, to hold up well
@Paddy wrote:
Yes they are well aware the Property market has peaked, so now is as good a time as any to invest in some new idea. In time we may work out what it is.
If we knew what it was we would be as rich as them.
They got rich selling a dream which doesn’t exist based on figures that didn’t add up to a gullible and naive public who felt that it couldn’t be such a bad deal if so many other people were buying at the same time.
I hate to burst your bubble, Paddy, and I wish you the best of luck but what you are suggesting is look what the crooks are doing next and deal with them again.
Rather I suspect you should consider seriously what the world is going to be like in the aftermath of this impending disaster and consider where your money will be best placed. Personally, I think defensive stocks during what I think will be a long recession.
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I suspect you are a socialist/marxist mike who hates the thought of someone makeing money. Why assume these people are crooks. Everone is a communist until they get money then they suddenly embrace capitalism. Look at Bono, Mick Hucknall etc.
Envy is not a virtue. I admire people who make money, good luck to them.
As for selling a dream that isn´t there, that is your opinion mike not mine.
The stock market tumble in the property sector takes time to occur. Only when company accounts are audited from the previous years trading do the figures filter through to the public, however those with money invested actually take note of profit warnings and sell on a high.
Much of the money invested into these companies works 2 ways for the investor, the investor requires a multiple outlet for his products, finds a large builder, buys shares in that builder then awards the builder the contract to build 200 stores nationwide – result – huge share value increase, it happens everyday allover the world to people with serious money. Nothing wrong with that whatsoever.
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Paddy I don’t know Mike from Adam but to call him a Marxist on the strength of his posts is err…… interesting. I would call him a realist. I hope you don’t have any investments in the Republic as it’s also going to take a -30 to50% spanking. No I’m not Marxist either just a free-marketeer…….
http://www.moneyweek.com/file/29122/is-ireland-heading-for-recession.html
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Paddy, the only thing that I agree with you on is that you know little about the stock market. So let me give you a quick lesson. When banks/ hedge funds / pension funds dump stock like they did the spanish housing stocks it is because they want to get rid of them sharpish, at any cost. Of course they are always looking for new areas to invest money, but when a stock declines so rapidly that is because there is a problem with it. & when they sold those stocks they were not thinking about the next big thing, all they were thinking about was of getting rid.
& all this happened in a market when these same funds are buying all the stocks they can get their hands on -just look how strong most of the european and american stock markets are performing.
Your sales talk might work with gullible clients but don’t try to put a positive gloss on the situation when there is none. -
@Pablo Silver or Lead? wrote:
Paddy I don’t know Mike from Adam but to call him a Marxist on the strength of his posts is err…… interesting. I would call him a realist. I hope you don’t have any investments in the Republic as it’s also going to take a -30 to50% spanking. No I’m not Marxist either just a free-marketeer…….
http://www.moneyweek.com/file/29122/is-ireland-heading-for-recession.html
Well, Pablo, I am coming to the conclusion that selling property in the past two years has in many cases been theft, would that make me a bit of an anarchist? 😆
From the article: “If we get a 25% drop in house prices over two to three years and a big contraction in [construction] at the same time… there’s no doubt that that would put the Irish economy into recession. And if our export sector is hit at the same time by a falling dollar then you’re getting a perfect storm of negative shocks, and then there could be quite serious trouble.”
Sometimes I think I am overreacting but then I read pieces like that
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Quote:– Mike said -They got rich selling a dream which doesn’t exist based on figures that didn’t add up to a gullible and naive public who felt that it couldn’t be such a bad deal if so many other people were buying at the same time.
I hate to burst your bubble, Paddy, and I wish you the best of luck but what you are suggesting is look what the crooks are doing next and deal with them again.
Quote:Mike, there are millions of people involved not only in this industry but in associated industries, Furniture, Pools, Air-conditioning, Banks, Garden Centres, Plumbers, Curtain Makers etc etc etc. Are you suggesting these innocent men and women working in these sectors are guilty by association?? They are after all taking advantage of your so-called “miss-selling crooked schemes.”If you had your way you would take the bread of every poor bu**ers table!
You also imply stock market investors are crooks, why??????
My mother in law has Boots shares, they are selling a cream that claims to be able to stop ageing…So in your opinion my mother in law is a crook too. Get real mike 🙄
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@forestfire wrote:
Paddy, the only thing that I agree with you on is that you know little about the stock market. So let me give you a quick lesson. When banks/ hedge funds / pension funds dump stock like they did the spanish housing stocks it is because they want to get rid of them sharpish, at any cost. Of course they are always looking for new areas to invest money, but when a stock declines so rapidly that is because there is a problem with it. & when they sold those stocks they were not thinking about the next big thing, all they were thinking about was of getting rid.
& all this happened in a market when these same funds are buying all the stocks they can get their hands on -just look how strong most of the european and american stock markets are performing.
Your sales talk might work with gullible clients but don’t try to put a positive gloss on the situation when there is none.forestfire, you may not be gullible to estate agents talk, but you have certainly fallen for the garbage spouted by the press.
There are at most 4 major Spanish constructors who´s shares have fallen. They incidently hardly have anything to do with the overseas property market here in Spain, they mainly contract in Madrid and other countries on localised projects.
You suggest the banks “Bale-out” – the banks have been aware of the declining property investment business for the last 18 months, their drop in mortgage sales over the counter tells them that, not some toss-pot” celebrity reporter for the Times or Telegraph who next week will be telling us what to wear this summer on the beach.
This over-hyped subject will hopefully fade away in a few weeks and then it will be back to business, slower than in 2004 but non the less still there, still providing millions of jobs and still providing overseas buyers with their dream home in the sun.
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@Pablo Silver or Lead? wrote:
Paddy I don’t know Mike from Adam but to call him a Marxist on the strength of his posts is err…… interesting. I would call him a realist. I hope you don’t have any investments in the Republic as it’s also going to take a -30 to50% spanking. No I’m not Marxist either just a free-marketeer…….
http://www.moneyweek.com/file/29122/is-ireland-heading-for-recession.html
Pablo!! why do you assume I am Irish???? or is that an assumption too 😳
I am English, and I suspect mike isn´t a realist but a bruised buyer and consequently now a cynic of the property industry.
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@Ponzi wrote:
People need to realise that all markets are cyclical, they grow then they contract. Typically the quicker and higher they grow the quicker and lower they contract. If someone tells you differently; they are either ignorant of the facts or lying, simple as.
Spot on Ponzi, wish you had said that before, could have saved me a load of time 💡
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@Paddy wrote:
If you had your way you would take the bread of every poor bu**ers table!
And how do you feel about taking the bread from the purchasers’ table???
Personally speaking Paddy, bearing in mind you have been working as an Estate Agent for seven years and reading your attitude to clients, I wouldn’t mind removing the bread from yours.
Paddy quotes:
“….Brits are so daft when it comes to buying abroad”.“…..many people who seem to encounter the usual pitfalls are rather silly”.
“….as soon as they arrive in Spain they behave like muppets”.
“……I let the clients buy me coffee and even lunch if they offer. I get rid of them as soon as I can and lot´s of them make my car smell horrible the next morning, why don´t they bring deodorant with them???”.
These daft, silly, smelly muppets have been putting bread on your table for seven years.
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@charlie wrote:
@Paddy wrote:
If you had your way you would take the bread of every poor bu**ers table!
And how do you feel about taking the bread from the purchasers’ table???
Personally speaking Paddy, bearing in mind you have been working as an Estate Agent for seven years and reading your attitude to clients, I wouldn’t mind removing the bread from yours.
Paddy quotes:
“….Brits are so daft when it comes to buying abroad”.“…..many people who seem to encounter the usual pitfalls are rather silly
“….as soon as they arrive in Spain they behave like muppets”.
“……I let the clients buy me coffee and even lunch if they offer. I supply water in the car and never let them drink alchol whilst viewing. I get rid of them as soon as I can and lot´s of them make my car smell horrible the next morning, why don´t they bring deodorant with them???”.
These daft, silly, smelly muppets have been putting bread on your table for seven years.
Charlie…why do you assume I take the bread off clients tables??? They come to me to buy a property, I don´t force them. I have never had a client loose money buying through me, nor have I ever sold an illegal property. Quite the reverse I have them come back or reccomend friends.
Regarding the first of my quotes;
It is a common occurance for British buyers to attempt to buy a property before they engage a lawyer, you would not do this in the UK but so many buyers (60-70%) including wealthy and educated ones still ask me if they need a lawyer or could they save money by buying without. (IMHO DAFT) Always have a lawyer – that´s good advice!Second quote response;
Here again clients attempt to buy property without title deeds, without building licenses, fall for estate agents who say “there is only one left so pay a deposit now” – Use a lawyer working for a developer or agent!! Falsify their documents to try and obtain a mortgage, miss-lead a bank regarding their earnings! Commit to new-build without having sufficient funds to complete 18 months down the line, then try and cancel after their permited time to do so has passed! I wouild say rather SILLY wouldn´t you??Third quote response!
All too frequently the client´s are concerned with buying duty free cigs, spirits, wanting a game of golf, I sometimes find it impossible to get the information the client needs to know across because their minds are all over the place. It is very annoying when I am trying to do a good job. If the client won´t listen to good advice then that is behaving like a MUPPET.Fourth quote respone;
I work very hard to do a good job, It´s gruelling work in hot temperatures, driving about 650km on an average tour. Keeping an eye on peoples needs, being messed around by owners cancelling appointments after driving long distances, my clients become well aware of the work that goes into doing my job, and more often than not will ask if they can BUY LUNCH OR A COFFEE etc. I accept, it´s nice to know they appreciate what I´m doing. I will not allow alchol because I don´t want anyone getting ill or claiming I made them drunk in order to get a sale.I also never go beyond 4.30 viewing as 7 hours is long enough in a car in hot weather. So I GET RID OF THEM (so to speak) before they get rid of me buy complaining I pushed them too hard.
In hot weather sometimes with grisly children in tow and with minimal clothing in their suitcases, some client´s forget that a change of clothes is essential when couped up in a car with 4 other people. Cigarettes can make a persons breath quite horrid and in 100c of heat even Kylie Minogue would SMELL if she didn´t use deodorant!
Stand by Charlie…I´ve taken a look at your vast list of posts and my goodness If I found the time to paste some of your quotes especially out of context!!!! Well maybe as a I am working I won´t have the time!
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@Paddy wrote:
Stand by Charlie…I´ve taken a look at your vast list of posts and my goodness If I found the time to paste some of your quotes especially out of context!!!! Well maybe as a I am working I won´t have the time!
You’re welcome anytime Paddy, even after working-hours is fine. I stand by everyone of them.
Surely you can find one…..in or out of context… 🙁 -
charlie, I know you have no love of estate agents, I´m not too fond of many myself! But now you are just trying to lure me into useing so much time to answer your post so that I neglect my business and it comes crashing down around my ears 😕
Not only that you are encouraging me to do it in my own time at home so that I neglect my family and they divorce me 🙁
However I do enjoy the debate, better than work anyway 😮 lol
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Meaning??????
Had you read my posts you will see they are mainly concerned with offering good advice and highlighting obvious pitfalls, unlike yours katy, which are mostly biased and negative, tarring all with the same brush.
The fact that you interpreted my posts wrongly/innacurately has caused you to reach a false conclusion.
You will see from my post further up, to charlie, where I said how difficult it is to get people to listen!
Now read the thread again, because it´s clear you have not digested it properly.
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The following articles from Citywire about 10 days ago have some interesting perspectives on the Spanish property market and shares of property companies.
http://www.citywire.co.uk/News/NewsArticlePrint.aspx?VersionID=91594
http://www.citywire.co.uk/News/NewsArticlePrint.aspx?VersionID=91518
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Hello Paddy, it seems we cannot agree on a single thing.
I made no reference to “the garbage spouted by the press” -I was simply responding to your inaccurate analysis of the stock market situation.
Major financial institutions dumped the constructors stocks -hardly a vote of confidence in the industry is it?
The proof that the stocks were dumped is in the price action. Case closed.What makes this particularly significant is that the spanish stocks got battered while the neighbouring stock markets performed strongly.
I can’t remember the last ECB press conference when concerns weren’t raised about the state of the spanish housing market, clearly Jean-Claude Trichet thinks it’s worthy of note, while you say it’s “over hyped”…
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Hello Mark (and everyone else on the site!)
I am new to this forum, so I hope I have posted this to the correct place…..
You wrote in your artical that “Any Briton who bought an attractive property in a good area five years ago or more should not worry.”
I brought a flat in Barcelona six years ago and want to sell, as I have just got married and now want to buy in London with my husband. I have been advised by friends and family that I should hold onto the flat becasue it’s ‘Barcelona’, for another year or so, when this dip has passed. But I am starting a new chapter in my life and Barcelona is now not part of that chapter. Anyhow, because of all the reports I have read on the Spanish property market – which actually seems to relate more to properties on the coast, rather than in the cities – I am now wondering if I should wait to sell. My flat is situated on the border of the El Raval, near San Antoni Market, what is your view on me selling now or next year? How long are properties taking to sell, approximately in that area?Also, as I consider myself quite a resourceful person, so I am thinking of selling it myself. What are you thoughts on this? And could anyone recommend any good websites to me or advice on how to best do this? Also, would anyone know what the approx market value/price is for a two bedroom, 55sq m, good condition, etc, flat in that area? Thank you.
Finally, when a person sells I understand certain fees that one has paid in buying and selling their flat is deducted from the Spanish CGT they have to pay. does that include estate agent fees?
Thanks
Lavinia
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