- This topic has 77 replies, 17 voices, and was last updated 17 years, 10 months ago by
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As I said before, the bankrupcy of a Spanish developer will be a piece of cake when compared to what comes in the near future.
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The global contagion from America has been fitful so far, with lethal bursts followed by bouts of eerie calm, just like 1930. Canada has stalled. Japan is teetering on the edge of recession. Tokyo’s stock market has suffered the worst New Year slide since World War Two, led by Honda, Sony and the export giants that live off the US market. The Nikkei index is down a third since July. The Shanghai bourse has dropped even harder. China is having to jam on the brakes to curb inflation.Italy has buckled. The economy contracted in the last quarter. The housing bubbles have burst in Spain and Ireland. Unemployment is now jumping across most of the Club Med bloc”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/03/13/ccambrose113.xml
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This doesn’t look good
Inflation at 4.4% – highest rates since 1995.
Oil around $110 per barrel
Euro at all time high against the Dollar of 1.56 $/€
Euribor rising again
Credit markets frozen
Unemployment rising
Abysmally low productivity growth (just 1.13%, compared to 2% in Germany, largely thanks to over reliance on construction), and falling competitiveness
Retail sales down 2.4% in January
Housing starts plummeting, construction sector that represents 20% of GDP in major crisis
Massive current account deficit
Government that is almost certain to do nothing to liberalise the economy.Am I missing anything?
Based on these facts, I would say that the Spanish economy appears to be heading for the rocks. If so, the real estate sector will get smashed to bits.
Mark
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OK doomsters, let’s get a little bit of perspective.
Recessions are bad news. In the UK it usually means 10% – 15% unemployment.
Hang on a mo’ though. It’s about 3% – 5% now. Yes, that’s correct, economies are so finely balanced that they can be in recession even with 85% – 90% employment.
Recessions affect those on the margins, the poor s0ds who comprise that extra unemployed 5%, and the ones who overborrowed and have to sell at distressed prices. For the rest of us it’s rich pickings as asset prices tumble to exploitable levels. I’m sitting on a pile of cash and index linkers waiting to pounce.
Remember, markets always overshoot on the upside in times of boom and always undershoot on the downside in times of bust. Buy, my friends, when there’s blood on the streets. Buy when the papers all run weekly stories of negative equity, “billions wiped off share prices”,. (By the way, has anyone seen a headline shouting “BILLIONS ADDED ON TO SHARE PRICES”?)
I’m lickin’ my lips and waiting for a 40% – 50% drop in prices. Sadly i don’t think it will get that bad in the village I’m interested in.
But if it does i’m in there like a whippet down a rabbit warren!
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@ashtondav wrote:
OK doomsters, let’s get a little bit of perspective.
I’m sitting on a pile of cash……waiting to pounce……buy, my friends, when there’s blood on the streets…..I’m lickin’ my lips…..
Don’t lick too hard, you’ll run out of saliva (unless you’re drooling excessively).
Always good to have a bit of ‘perspective and balance’ on the forum I suppose. 🙄
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ashtondav wrote:Remember, markets always overshoot on the upside in times of boom and always undershoot on the downside in times of bust. Buy, my friends, when there’s blood on the streets. Buy when the papers all run weekly stories of negative equity, “billions wiped off share prices”,. (By the way, has anyone seen a headline shouting “BILLIONS ADDED ON TO SHARE PRICES”?)
I agree with what you say. I always said that things undershoot on the downside in times of bust, this is why I expect bad places in Spain (and other holiday destinations) to go down 80%.
What I do not agree is with the piles of cash. Maybe you sit on piles of cash, but not many do so. Most of the people are already over-mortgaged and over-indebted that they can barely make it from one month to another.
In Florida almost new houses in some areas already sell for 70% of the BUILDING PRICE! I mean, if I buy a cheap lot and build now, I pay at least 30% more.
And still nobody is interested. Meanwhile stock markets crash.
So the lack of money is the one which determines the lack of interest.
About your waiting to pounce, do not catch falling kniwves, have patience and beware of
dead cat bounces. -
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charlie wrote:mark wrote:Am I missing anything?
Yes Mark.
Corruption, including Land Grab, is continuing unabated, as is destroying much of Spain’s beautiful landscape. This will not attract new buyers to help kickstart Spain’s sinking property market.Charlie, unfortunately all the beautiful landscapes in all the countries were or are destroyed.
Everybody wanted a piece of heaven and they created many slices of Hell…
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I´ve thought that a crash was likely for sometime and after that budget and forecasts it now looks more likely. Brown has got the UK finances in a right old mess!
Also, how can people from the UK justify paying 15% more for their euro properties on top of the high completion costs and huge estate agent´s fees included in the already overpriced properties in Spain? This will affect all of the Eurozone.
IMO Sterling is also overpriced against the dollar which if that picks up I can see another run on sterling sometime, however I also think the Euro is overpriced so that too could suffer sometime.
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charlie wrote
‘Yes Mark.
Corruption, including Land Grab, is continuing unabated, as is destroying much of Spain’s beautiful landscape.
This will not attract new buyers to help kickstart Spain’s sinking property market.”……..i think this is an issue many are underplaying rather. When the economic situation does improve, who will be interested in Spain, unless the corruption/Land grab/poor regulation, issues show very visable signs of big change?. Hideous mis-justice like the recent British couples house being torn down, despite having the right paperwork in place, as far as they were concerned, will i think make many head for safer ground. The UK has it’s problems for buyers as does Florida and other markets, but nothing like the lottery that ‘buying in Spain’. has been for so many. When the tide turns, i think many will have faith in ‘safer bets’ unless confidence is restored.
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When one thinks of all the tens of thousands caught up in illegal builds, court cases etc., each one of those have at least a dozen family/friends who will know about it. In turn, they talk to their family/friends. Word spreading about the injustices being currently suffered by Brits should not be underestimated – it’s reaching the ears of millions without the media having to write one article.
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When one thinks of all the tens of thousands caught up in illegal builds, court cases etc., each one of those have at least a dozen family/friends who will know about it. In turn, they talk to their family/friends. Word spreading about the injustices being currently suffered by Brits should not be underestimated – it’s reaching the ears of millions without the media having to write one article.
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What I find incredible is the attitude of the average Spaniard. I talk to lots from all walks of life, I comment about the land grab,the demolitions ,the thousands under threat of demolition or having to write a blank cheque to legalise a “legal” property. They just shrug their shoulders and say that it is “normal”in Spain. They seem to have little or no sympathy for people like the Priors, the 84 year old lady in La Nucia (Alicante) who is having her house and land taken away from her , where she has lived for 30 years and will be left with the princely sum of 25,000 euros(no this is not a misprint the figure is 25.000 euros) to buy a property. They seem to say the system is like this and we can´t do anything about it..Well they had better learn pretty damn quick, as many contributors have put on this forum people caught up in these situations spread the word to all and sundry and Spain will take years to live it down.
I am not saying all Spaniards are like this but from my dealings with them this is how they think.
Last May, during the local elections and English guy called Tony Cabban in Javea (Alicante) was standing for election to the Javea Council, he was interviewd by the Daily Mail. Tony is a well travelled man and has lived most of his life outside the UK. He commented that as he had lived in Africa and most of Asia and that their systems were perhaps not the most democratic in the world it gave him a great insight into understanding the Spanish system.
The furore from local Spaniards was electric, quotes like how dare Cabban liken Spain to third world countries, we are a leading European democracy and we are more democratic than the Uk why does n´t he go back there and sort out their corruption etc etc. The upshot was that Tony had to stand down and did not appear on the list for the party he had helped to form, unfortunately his fellow co founders were not prepared to back him. This is by the way a town where the present and some of the former mayors are awaiting trial for various offences. Tony has certainly been proved right, the goings on in certain parts of Spain would shame many third world countries.
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Well ,Well 🙂
The dooom mongers are having a field day. 😀
The Spanish are not interested as they have had their fill of the U.K punter and probably see our media as just a boil on their arse.
Corruption is the system ? Live with it as their not listening,
Demolitions,so what,its the norm and all part of way of life in Spain.
Fact is the U.K will not be buying in Spain or anywhere else for that matter with the Euro and the credit crunch and well they know it.
House prices are reported to be falling in the U.K at the fastest rate for many years and dept of individuals and the U.K government makes dismal reading.
U.K in the main have fed the overbuild in crap small 1 and 2 bed apartments and Spanish developers were more than happy to feed them in the frenzy of activity.
U.K were yesterdays buyers and only ones with Euro as their currency will at sometime in the future be buyers along other countries that are in better shape to ride the storm that the U.K.
The U.K punters will be leaving this country in record numbers at least those with money and where do you think they will head when they see bargains and thats the only buyers of any numbers Spain can expect from us.
As Katy pointed out corruption is big news here but doesnt even make the news in Spain nor others countries.
Simple fact is that its the U.K thats going down the swanee and the doom merchants base all of their posts based on the U,Ks angle and forget its a big world out there.
Hows that Ralita ?Post to your approval. 🙁Blimey 😕 Tin hat time. 😯
Frank 8)
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Just Frank wrote:Well ,Well 🙂
The dooom mongers are having a field day. 😀
The Spanish are not interested as they have had their fill of the U.K punter and probably see our media as just a boil on their arse.
Corruption is the system ? Live with it as their not listening,
Demolitions,so what,its the norm and all part of way of life in Spain.
Fact is the U.K will not be buying in Spain or anywhere else for that matter with the Euro and the credit crunch and well they know it.The point is that it does not matter at all if the Spanish care or not about the corrpution and the demolitions. When their economy sinks and the unemployment sky rockets, they will definitely observe.
About UK punters leaving. Many of them won’t be able to do so as their property will be worth 50% of the value of the owed money. if they all leave at the same time (after sending the house key by mail to the banks), the banking system in Spain will crash.
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Ralita 🙂
So U.K prices are also going to fall by 50% is your opinion then.?
Ralitas REPLY . YEPRALITA
Many will hand back the keys in Spain
FRANK
The 30%+ they loose may just help the Banks offset some of the losses that will happen when prices fall.Yep the not so good locations will nose dive but the better areas will fall less and in some cases the Banks may do O.K and they could just have equity in many properties.
FRANKS REPLY
Dont agree that the Spanish banks will crash. :?.
People forget that a large part of the construction employment sector was taken up by Eastern Europeans and they will just move on ?Frank 8)
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Just Frank wrote:Ralita 🙂
So U.K prices are also going to fall by 50% is your opinion then.?
Yep. Many will hand back the keys in Spain however the 30%+ they loose may just help the Banks offset some of the losses that will happen when prices fall.
Yep the not so good locations will nose dive but the better areas will fall less and in some cases the Banks may do O.K and they could just have equity in many properties.
Dont agree that the Spanish banks will crash. :?.Frank 8)
UK, 50%? Might be… Definitely 70% for flats in Manchester, Liverpool, Leeds, Sheffield, etc.
Much less in London, etc. Same as Marbella versus junk in Spain.I can make a better estimate for UK in about 6 months from now. I am not sure how much MEW has been taken out in UK.
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@Just Frank wrote:
……..and the doom merchants base all of their posts based on the UK’s angle and forget its a big world out there.
Do we…. ❓ 😕
I thought it was simply a case of seeing what’s infront of our eyes.
Though acknowledge that’s hard to do if one’s head is buried firmly in the sand. Suggest you re-read Mark’s post on page 1 if you’re in any doubt.
Admit it Frank, you’re really a closet doom merchant yourself, you just won’t admit it. 😉 -
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Hi Charlie 🙂
Well lets say I try to look at the bright side. 😕
At the moment I have to admit that I am having to work overtime on this one.
When you get postings that U.K property is going to fall by 50% someone has got to bring some reality into the situation.
You know me Charlie,see something that may start worrying people when they have enough on their plate as it is,I do me best to bring some balance even if it may be a load of rubbish to counter balance the over the top opinions and predictions.
Worry about today and let tomorrow look after its self. 😀Frank 8)
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MG: Where in the UK has dropped by 50%? Some flats in Manchester have dropped substantially but, not as far as I know by 50%. These are flats bought by amateur speculaters, sight unseen & given unrealistic letting valuations. They didn’t do their research.
Prices certainly haven’t dropped in my area (Surrey) or in Somerset where I have some buy to let properties. In Reading where I work prices are going up for most properties, particulary near the university.
I visited a Spanish property exhibition recently (2 weeks ago) & counted 23 couples. I don’t know if they will go to Spain & buy but it did show there is interest.
I’m not finding a problem letting my flat at La Torre, perhaps others are, I don’t know.
Not everyone bought in Spain with a mortgage, & as in the UK, if you don’t need to sell, you don’t have a problem.
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Some developments? 🙄 Ralita was talking in broader terms than some developments. What developments and where mg? I’ll phone an agent in that area and ask them if prices have fallen by 50%.
If prices fall by 50% in the UK, banks and building societies would be forced to write down the value of their loan portfolios, recording massive pre-tax losses. This would result in bank customers losing confidence in the security of their deposits in these financial institutions, and would most likely result in the type of scenario we have seen with Northern Rock.
Aside from the massive Corporation Tax repayments that HM Treasury via HM Revenue & Customs would subsequently be obliged to make, this would significantly increase Government borrowing with adverse consequences on the overall state of the economy. In short, massive recession, with widespread company liquidations (lack of credit facilities) and bankruptcies, a situation that could more than match the 1929 Wall Street crash.
HM Government, Government Agencies and international regulatory authorities would have little choice but to lend support by cutting interest rates to the bone, injecting cash into the banking system and taking every step to underpin underlying property values.
No UK government could ever contemplate allowing a decline in property values of 50% across the board.
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As you folks well know, I don’t often post here.
When I do I try to strip all emotion out of it and just give you the hard facts or an honest and unbiased opinion.So, are there really dark days ahead?
Yes, for many.
1) For the speculators who bought off-plan in areas where no-one wants to be.
2) For the greedy developers who slapped up 2 bed 2 bath boxes by the shedload and over-priced them thinking that overseas buyers were a load of mugs and are now left with massive over-supply.
3) For the banks who were daft enough to give 100% mortgages on properties they couldn’t even be bothered to go and see and to clients who they didn’t credit check overseas.
4) For the corrupt and lazy, incompetent lawyers.
5) For the greedy agents who only sold off-plan and couldn’t be bothered to learn Spanish.
6) For the crooks working (or formerly working) in Town Halls across the globe.Cafe con leche days ahead for some?
1) For many who are still fighting for their rights in the town planning fiascos across Spain (it isn’t just Marbella, you know). The outcome here could end up positive for a fair proportion.Bright days ahead?
1) For those who did their research, bought in desirable areas and are now selling at break-even in euros but converting their proceeds back to sterling.
2) For honest lawyers and agents who, despite a recession, are still making a decent living.
3) For belt-tighteners across the board who sold the Bentley last year or who paid a chunk of their mortgage off before it went from interest-only to capital repayment.
4) For Spanish first-time buyers. My first 3 sales this year! At last they can get onto the ladder.
5) For bargain-hunters who still fancy a nice home in the sun or a punt on a property which may have dropped up to 40% in the last 3 years.
6) For anyone who owns in a frontline beach location or simply a location, location, location “location”.And to close on a profund note, in the words of good old Warren Buffett (‘cos he’s worth a bob or 2 after all and knows his cebollas):
“Look at market fluctuations as your friend rather than your enemy; profit from folly rather than participate in it.” -
I am one of those that are looking for a substantial drop in property prices as I think they are very overpriced for what you get.
I have been specifically looking in Almunecar and I see the same old villas up for sale for the last two or so years with no changes in prices. I wonder if folks on this forum have a view on that?
I guess that these owners who are selling brought them years ago and are not in any great hurry to sell, no high mortgages, etc, which is a bit of a bummer as I like the area. However, I am not going to pay a price for something for which I would not at the least be able to recoup if I had to sell for some reason in the near term.
Many thanks,
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Just Frank wrote:Hi Charlie 🙂
When you get postings that U.K property is going to fall by 50% someone has got to bring some reality into the situation.If you read my message carefully, I meant that UK punters will lose 50% value of their SPANISH house, not of the UK house. I never said that overall UK house price will be 50% lower.
Except if we have a deep recession when nobody will be able to get money to buy houses. This is why I said that it is unclear for the moment how much will houses fall in UK. In 6 months will know.
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billkuk wrote:I have been specifically looking in Almunecar and I see the same old villas up for sale for the last two or so years with no changes in prices. I wonder if folks on this forum have a view on that?
Same in Fuerteventura. The same properties are being sold for almost 2 years at the same prices. The sale lists are virtually unchanged in the last 2 years.
I wonder what are people thinking over there…
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Just Frank wrote:Ralita
quote=”Just Frank”]Ralita 🙂
So U.K prices are also going to fall by 50% is your opinion then.?
Yep.What I wrote was: “UK, 50%? Might be… Definitely 70% for flats in Manchester, Liverpool, Leeds, Sheffield, etc.
Much less in London, etc. Same as Marbella versus junk in Spain. “You interpreted my lines in your own twisted way.
Please read twice what I write before you make comments, OK? Should I write it in French, Italian or Spanish to make it clearer?
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Ralita 🙂
I asked the question which required a yes or no answer 😕
With it so far ❓
You answered YES 😕
Now unless in your world yes means no then how could I possibly twist that in my own way,.
Claire also read it the same as did m,g.
If you would stop copying and pasting everything that we post and,dropping in your own comments we may understand what you are trying to say.Frank 8)
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@Just Frank wrote:
Ralita 🙂
So U.K prices are also going to fall by 50% is your opinion then.?
Yep. Many will hand back the keys in Spain……Frank, you wrote the ‘yep’, not Ralita!!
Can we put an end to this now, I’m going dizzy.
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Edited. I only left the relevant part, readers can judge.
Frank took his Thu Mar 13, 2008 4:07 pm message and
Last edited by Just Frank on Fri Mar 14, 2008 2:32 pm; edited 3 times in totalHe did not realize that my presumable Yep would have been in a message written at Thu Mar 13, 2008 4:15 pm which was later than his Thu Mar 13, 2008 4:07 pm message.
He wanted to make me look like a liar but I guess things backfired.
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Ralita 😈
You are very rude and insulting and I would be very grateful if you would do as you say and didnt reply to any of my postings. 😈
To be called a liar on an open forum is a disgrace and the editor should delete it. 😈
I give my time freely and many will confirm that I do help as many as I can with their problems and in no way should I have to accept such insults from you and this is not the first time.
Friendly banter is one thing showing yourself up like this brings no value to the forum not that you do anyway.
For you information I did alter my posting today following your deletion to try to bring some sense to it.Good Day
Frank 8)
FRANK ALTERED THIS POSTING TWICE TO PUT A COUPLE OF TYPOS RIGHT
Still plenty more probably, -
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Ralita 🙂
You are starting to rant and even I am getting dizzy.
Viewers of the forum are simply not interested on who said this and who said that.
They are not interested in insulting someone the way you have and has no room on the forum.( Marks words not mine)
Please just let it go and let the forum get back on track.
Please do not copy and paste anything I post that way you will not be misunderstood by me or anyone else for that matter. 😉Frank 8)
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@ralita wrote:
@mg wrote:
Post Office® exchange rate 1.2565
Ralita
Your posts will be easier to read if the lines you quote are displayed correctly. You have never mastered this simple task on the board.On the post you are replying to, click on the top right where the little box says quote and everything should appear correctly.
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Now Children!
If you could kindly stop shouting at each other and listen for a moment, you may be interested to hear that, according to a local UK Chartered Surveyor, there appears to be the usual burst of spring activity in the UK housing market. More properties are going onto Estate Agents books with increased viewings and offers. It may be, that the credit crunch will smooth itself out and the current correction in house prices has been enough.
OK, lecture over. Please feel free to call each other BIG FAT STINKING LIARS again!! 😆 😆 😆
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Rate from OANDA.com.
Friday, March 14, 20081 British Pound = 1.359 Euro
1 Euro (EUR) = 0.796 British Pound (GBP)
Interbank rate +/- 4%
This means:
You buy 1 British Pound : 1.359 Euro
You sell 1 British Pound : 1.255 Euro
You buy 1 Euro : 0.796 British Pound
You sell 1 Euro : 0.735 British PoundMedian price = 1.30685 / 1.30712 (bid/ask)
Minimum price = 1.30185 / 1.30210
Maximum price = 1.31091 / 1.31125 -
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Hi All
Now this could spell one or two problems for many if you read the full report on M.S.NNEW YORK (AP) – Bear Stearns Cos., one of the most venerable names on Wall Street, turned to a rival bank and the federal government for a last-minute bailout Friday to prevent it from collapsing.
The Federal Reserve responded swiftly to pleas from Bear Stearns that its coffers had “significantly deteriorated” within a 24-hour period as rumors about the bank’s situation fueled the Wall Street version of a run on the bank. Central bankers tapped a rarely used Depression-era provision to provide loans, and said they were ready to provide extra resources to combat an erosion of confidence in America’s biggest financial institutions.
Nearly half the value of Bear Stearns, or about $5.7 billion, was wiped out in a matter of minutes as investors felt the bailout signaled that the credit crisis has reached a more serious stage, and now threatens to undermine the broader financial system — and the U.S. economy.
Come on the doom mongers full yer boots 😆
Frank 8) -
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@Just Frank wrote:
Katy 🙂
What a great question and one which I have asked myself many times.
I will await the replies with great interest and this deserves a thread all of its own
Frank 8)I’m sorry, Frank and Katy, I think I might come across like that and I am sure it is really annoying but I can’t help it. I knew something was wrong but I didn’t know what but it was bugging me and I needed to know because when you know you are right and everyone else is wrong and you just want to let everyone know because you care about them and they just won’t listen?
That’s what it felt like
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Mr. Maximus, what you say is really wishful thinking. RICS presented a very gloomy picture last week.
I don’t doubt that it could have been a burst of spring activity if not for the credit crunch. People will show interest, banks will tell many of them to take a hike and properties will remain unsold (at least at the present unrealistic prices).
If Maximus has any idea of what the credit crunch really is, he.she will know that it cannot smoothen out in less that 1-2 years. There are more than 1 trillion (i.e. 1 million millions) dollars in bad debt.
About the official Pound/Euro rate, now it is 1.2877 . This will be reflected
next working day in the exchange offices. The 1.30 rate cited by Claire was the Thurday rate. -
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@Claire wrote:
Well, I cannot fathom what you are saying Mike. Was your post deleted by Mark as looking back I cannot see a post from you on this thread?
I often post things that could be described as gloomy and so I felt I fitted into that camp even if I had not contributed to this actual thread. I didn’t check whether I had contributed to this thread, I contribute less now because what I had been predicting is now pretty mainstream and there is little left to say.
My ramblings in the post reflect the lack of belief of what I was seeing as people invested in Spanish property. It’s the spluttering of someone who is seeing someone doing something incredibly stupid and struggles to find words to explain why it is stupid because he never thought it was something he would have to explain.
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@Just Frank wrote:
Mike 🙂
Personally have never noticed any posting of yours that would bring katy to pop that question.
Have always found you postings honest and sincere so no gulity conscience needed bud 🙂Frank 8)
Thanks for that, Frank. I don’t try not to be nasty but the postings I make are gloomy!
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Mike, I didn’t have you in mind when I posted. I post lots of bad news too and I can’t see light at the end of the tunnel here in Spain. It is only one or two posters I was thinking of and the vibes that come from their posts are that they are delighted and chuckling with glee as they tap the keyboard. Just wondered why and if anyone else had noticed it 😕
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@katy wrote:
Mike, I didn’t have you in mind when I posted. I post lots of bad news too and I can’t see light at the end of the tunnel here in Spain. It is only one or two posters I was thinking of and the vibes that come from their posts are that they are delighted and chuckling with glee as they tap the keyboard. Just wondered why and if anyone else had noticed it 😕
Katy, and Claire, thanks for that. I’m glad that I don’t come across as chuckling with glee but I am sure that my interest in what is happening isn’t that healthy and can sometimes be misconstrued.
So, I’m glad it hasn’t and I’ll get back to studying financial armageddon and the threat to world peace leading to global destruction and the extinction of the human race. 😯
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