EDITOR’S NOTE: The pound is going up and down with the opinion polls on the UK’s EU referendum. Foreign currency exchange specialist Luke Trevail explains.
Sterling surged upwards this week when a phone survey of 1,000 adults revealed that 55% would vote to remain in Europe when the 23rd June referendum comes along.
The biggest move that we’ve seen in Sterling this year started on Wednesday and reached its peak on Thursday morning, before settling down a touch on Friday. We rallied to €1.3065, such a difference from €1.22 that we touched briefly just last month, and which marked a 2-year low.
The effect to the UK economy is one of the crucial issues in the EU referendum debate. It’s thought that nearly twice as many people think that a Brexodus vote would harm the UK’s economic performance in the first five years. Chancellor George Osborne has already revised growth forecasts to 2020 as lower than first thought. This would likely worsen if we left Europe.
Clearly this week has offered a fantastic opportunity to those people wanting to secure a good rate prior to June when things are expected to become more volatile. There will be a rash of different opinion polls issued over the coming weeks, the schedule of which is as uncertain as the outcome. The pound, fickle as it is, will react to the result of polls, and could be in for a good time, or not, depending on the ups and downs in the polls before next month’s vote.
Caution, as always, is well advised. From where we are today, we’ve recently been far lower than higher, so it’s a good time to protect yourself against the uncertain market in the short term.