Re: Re: cajas again

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Chris McCarthy
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Nobody knows. My guess is that on the Costsa we’ll see another two years of falls and 25% off prices before things stabilise. After that there will be at least another few years of stagnation. In real terms properties there will be worth some 50-60% of their current ‘value’ in five years time.

You see, I hear you, and it all makes and sounds like terrific sense, but this is the bit where it all falls down for me. And please be as patient with me when you tell me why I have it wrong.

But you are saying that a property bought for lets say 300,000 some four years ago, which has fallen by 40% already, so now is selling for 180,000, will fall by a further 25% over the next two years being 45,000 down to 135,000.

And given that today’s current value – we sold one yesterday – is 180,000 you believe that this will actually be worth as little as 90,000 in five years time?

Do you see where I am coming from?

I really do appreciate and understand your posts, and they help, it is just this bit that I don’t get – that from an actual average selling price of 300k four years ago, across the board properties on the CDS are only going to be worth 30% of their price some 9 years later.

Do you see where I have a little difficulty with that?

Please sort me out.