Very hard to know, as usual everything in Spain is supposed to be rosy.
Santander has taken over the Alliance and Leicester today , so they have quite a foothold in the UK with them owning the Shabby National, whether this is a good thing or not time will tell.
Spanish bank share prices have been really weak over the last week. This could be due though to the problems of the Fanny Craddock bank in the States.
I know Spanish banks did some really bad lending based on high valuations , and with unemployment likely to rocket in the Autumn bad debts can only increase. Developers are really up against it, and the banks here will have to write millions of their values.
Probably the savings banks are more vulnerable than the big ones ,Santander,BBVA, Popular etc.
Based on feeling more than economic reality, I would expect a few banks ,savings banks that is , to go under. One should be safe with any of the big four.
Not vey scientific, but with a weak government in Madrid who may or may not support banks if the shove comes to push, I cannot believe anyone can forecast what will happen to Spanish banks over the next two years.
There are so many impònderables, will the Euro survive in its present form?. Will the European Union survive in its present state ?