Where are we in the bubble cycle?

LoadingFavourite

This topic contains 119 replies, has 14 voices, and was last updated by Profile photo of DBMarcos99 DBMarcos99 2 years, 7 months ago.

  • Author
    Posts
  • #57842
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    Here are two good illustrations of the stages that bubbles go through. The question is, in which stage is the Spanish property market?

    I think we are in despair / revulsion, which doesn’t mean to say the overall market has touched bottom yet.

  • #118607
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    i think we are in the ‘soapy bubble’ stage and will remain so for some time ๐Ÿ˜€

  • #118616
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    Please, please, please, for God’s sake, do not buy a property in Spain. As a non-resident if you don’t show sufficient means of income you will be deported from Spain; you need to declare all your assets, bank accounts to the Spanish tax man and there are stiff penalties for every bank account that the tax authorities discover that you failed to declare. You will be ripped off in buying property in Spain, you need to budget at least 11% of the property price to pay tax and fees when buying property in Spain. The Spanish tax man will come after you for additional tax if you bought a property at a price that is less than the Valor Catastral (rateable value) of the property. The entire property buying process in Spain is totally corrupt and opaque and a minefield designed to fleece the naive British home buyer who left their brain at the airport. Property that is priced at 20,000 euros to the local Spanish are sold for 100,000 euros to the gullible British buyer. The only people that still own a property in Spain are those people who cannot sell their property at any price.

  • #118617
    Profile photo of GarySFBCN
    GarySFBCN
    Participant

    @spanishsiesta wrote:

    Please, please, please, for God’s sake, do not buy a property in Spain. As a non-resident if you don’t show sufficient means of income you will be deported from Spain; you need to declare all your assets, bank accounts to the Spanish tax man and there are stiff penalties for every bank account that the tax authorities discover that you failed to declare. You will be ripped off in buying property in Spain, you need to budget at least 11% of the property price to pay tax and fees when buying property in Spain. The Spanish tax man will come after you for additional tax if you bought a property at a price that is less than the Valor Catastral (rateable value) of the property. The entire property buying process in Spain is totally corrupt and opaque and a minefield designed to fleece the naive British home buyer who left their brain at the airport. Property that is priced at 20,000 euros to the local Spanish are sold for 100,000 euros to the gullible British buyer. The only people that still own a property in Spain are those people who cannot sell their property at any price.

    Can you please provide links to articles about those who were deported from Spain because they didn’t ‘show sufficient means of income’ ? Or are you just making this up?

  • #118620
    Profile photo of angie
    angie
    Spectator

    Maybe Spain’s property bubble has gone through all stages like speculation, greed, denial, resignation and capitulation and is probably back to ‘resignation’. I think most property owners are resigned to this present state of the market and hoping it will upturn sometime but not knowing when for sure.:roll: There comes a point when people won’t lower prices any more because they cannot so just get on with life ๐Ÿ™„

  • #118622
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    The economy is in the twenty year long depression stage of the economic cycle in which property owners in Spain are praying for a miracle but despite official figures to the contrary unemployment will remain a massive problem as good paying jobs are lost to be replaced by part-time jobs serving fries at McDonalds. Its the classic boiled frog syndrome in which the people in Spain are slowly being cooked alive but don’t realise that they are slowly being vociferated.

    The recent cut in interest rates by the ECB is only kicking the can down the road and is just postponing the day of reckoning in which Spain faces up to the fact that it will never be able to pay off its national debt and will eventually default and drop out of the Euro. Low interest rates is not dealing with the acute structural problems that Spain has and Spain desperately needs a structural solution to its structural problems and not cheap money solutions which will only prolong the Depression that Spain is in and will fail to address the structural problems in the Spain economy.

  • #118631
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    Spain has a structural problem with its economy in that it was too dependent on construction during the housing boom and a structural problem requires a structural solution but the Spanish Government and the ECB are implementing short-term monetary solutions to fix the structural problem which will not work because it is not dealing with the fundamental structural problems of the Spanish economy but the policy is simply designed to keep interest rates low by buying up Government debt in the form of bonds which is creating artificial demand for bonds with the aim of causing bond prices to rise and thereby lower the yield on those bonds, reduce the interest rate on the bonds so that Spain can continue to borrow cheaply and keep the ponzi scheme economy going. Eventually, like all Ponzi schemes, the Spanish economic Ponzi scheme will collapse when it becomes so big that no more people will be willing to buy Spanish Government debt at which point the economy will collapse almost certainly in the year 2015.

  • #118634
    Profile photo of Igurisu
    Igurisu
    Participant

    Jake, you made two new profiles so you could debate with yourself? I think its time for you to visit the doctor.

  • #118635
    Profile photo of katy
    katy
    Spectator

    @igurisu wrote:

    Jake, you made two new profiles so you could debate with yourself? I think its time for you to visit the doctor.

    Yes, he is quite obvious, can’t be bothered to respond to him. I need a big YAWN emoticon :mrgreen:

  • #118636
    Profile photo of GarySFBCN
    GarySFBCN
    Participant

    @katy wrote:

    @igurisu wrote:
    Jake, you made two new profiles so you could debate with yourself? I think its time for you to visit the doctor.

    Yes, he is quite obvious, can’t be bothered to respond to him. I need a big YAWN emoticon :mrgreen:

    We are seeing the result of eating too many sausages and tinned pineapple. ๐Ÿ™‚

    Actually, the previous usernames have been disabled or deleted (jakesuper, spanishsiesta, etc), so it may be that Jake keeps registering with new names in order to inflict his opinion upon us.

  • #118739
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    I’ve been talking to funds looking at Spain. I get the impression there will be a lot of international fund money invested in Spanish real estate next year. When Goldman Sachs and Bill Gates invest, you know the crowd won’t be far behind.

    There are now 68 new developments being built on the Costa Blanca between Torrevieja and Pilar de la Horadada, up from just a handful a year ago. None of them are using bank financing. They are selling off-plan and using stage payments to finance the build. There has been a big and dramatic improvement in a relatively short space of time.

  • #118742
    Profile photo of logan
    logan
    Participant

    @mark wrote:

    There are now 68 new developments being built on the Costa Blanca between Torrevieja and Pilar de la Horadada, up from just a handful a year ago. None of them are using bank financing. They are selling off-plan and using stage payments to finance the build. There has been a big and dramatic improvement in a relatively short space of time.

    I do find that statement difficult to believe Mark. I am not accusing you of untruths but I would like some links to support it.
    68 developments using stage payments to finance the build” seems very far fetched to my eye.

    I know that strip of coastal region and last time I was there this year I saw no evidence of developments apart from the ones standing empty or abandoned.

  • #118743
    Profile photo of angie
    angie
    Spectator

    logan, an article here on this link from SPI on 26th November 2013 headlined ‘Demolition Day Getting Closer’, talks about ‘something like 750,000 new homes languish on the market, maybe more, and 100’s of 1000’s more as yet unfinished etc’

    http://www.spanishpropertyinsight.com/2013/11/ … ng-closer/

    Interestingly, a previous article talks of the glut and the region with the biggest glut for sale is Valencia region. ๐Ÿ˜ฎ

    This begs the question, why build 68 new developments in that region if there are so many for sale, and why build them if existing developments have to be demolished, it doesn’t make sense. Surely, stage payment funding for such developments would be high risk with so many existing new developments for sale in the Costa Blanca. I don’t understand this, please explain if I’m reading this incorrectly? ๐Ÿ˜• ๐Ÿ™„

  • #118744
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    “This begs the question, why build 68 new developments in that region if there are so many for sale, and why build them if existing developments have to be demolished,”

    maybe these ones are on A1 locations.

    ” it doesn’t make sense “

    It does not have to make sense. This is Spain we are talking about .

    ” Surely, stage payment funding for such developments would be high risk “

    Indeed, why would you give funds to some one where you have no chance of a recourse against anybody. Remember you cannot even accept a Bank as a guarantor.

  • #118747
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    @logan wrote:

    I do find that statement difficult to believe Mark. I am not accusing you of untruths but I would like some links to support it. “68 developments using stage payments to finance the build” seems very far fetched to my eye.

    I know that strip of coastal region and last time I was there this year I saw no evidence of developments apart from the ones standing empty or abandoned.

    My source is someone who’s business it is to know how many developments there are in that area. He has no reason to lie to me. He has counted active developments, not ones that have stopped building.

  • #118749
    Profile photo of katy
    katy
    Spectator

    http://economia.elpais.com/economia/2013/11/23/actualidad/1385221051_342380.html

    They must be crazy…Torrevieja area too ๐Ÿ˜ฏ ๐Ÿ˜†

  • #118751
    Profile photo of logan
    logan
    Participant

    @mark wrote:

    My source is someone who’s business it is to know how many developments there are in that area. He has no reason to lie to me. He has counted active developments, not ones that have stopped building.

    If I were you Mark I would listen to your sources in the future with a bucket full of scepticism. The story is just not credible like so many stories of the Spanish market returning to norms.

  • #118752
    Profile photo of angie
    angie
    Spectator

    The link katy provides says ‘Valencia is the region that builds the most new homes that stand empty’, I find it hard to believe that 68 new developments are needed in that region, nor that they are being built, please can we have links to these 68 devloments? ๐Ÿ™„

  • #118814
    Profile photo of angie
    angie
    Spectator

    Any links please on request made by logan and myself to these extra developments on the Costa Blanca , I’ve searched the web and can’t find them? ๐Ÿ™„

  • #118815
    Profile photo of katy
    katy
    Spectator

    In the news this week, House sales in Mรกlaga province fell by 10% in October.

  • #118811
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    @angie wrote:

    Any links please on request made by logan and myself to these extra developments on the Costa Blanca , I’ve searched the web and can’t find them? ๐Ÿ™„

    I don’t have any links. Someone I know, who is not a liar, has counted 68 new developments underway between Torrevieja and Pilar de la Horadada. These developments are catering to buyers who want better quality than the crap left over from the boom, and they are prepared to pay more. Brits and Swedes are buying the crap on the cheap, Norwegians and Russians are buying off-plan, better quality, more expensive (around โ‚ฌ140,000). That’s all there is to it. You don’t have to believe it if you don’t want to. It might be part of the big conspiracy ๐Ÿ˜‰

  • #118802
    Profile photo of angie
    angie
    Spectator

    If so, then it would fit in with my view that better quality, maybe smaller niche developments might be a way forward in Spain, but if they turn out to be the usual stuff being built then there’s no real need for them with existing oversupply ๐Ÿ™„

  • #118795
    Profile photo of logan
    logan
    Participant

    The distance of coast between Torre@mark wrote:

    @angie wrote:
    Any links please on request made by logan and myself to these extra developments on the Costa Blanca , I’ve searched the web and can’t find them? ๐Ÿ™„

    I don’t have any links. Someone I know, who is not a liar, has counted 68 new developments underway between Torrevieja and Pilar de la Horadada. These developments are catering to buyers who want better quality than the crap left over from the boom, and they are prepared to pay more. Brits and Swedes are buying the crap on the cheap, Norwegians and Russians are buying off-plan, better quality, more expensive (around โ‚ฌ140,000). That’s all there is to it. You don’t have to believe it if you don’t want to. It might be part of the big conspiracy ๐Ÿ˜‰

    The distance of coast between Torrevieja and Pilar de Horadada is 20km. Most of it is built up with cheap and tatty urbanisations with massive shopping malls built during the boom. The entire area has a cheap and cheerful ethos similar to Benidorm. There are few attractions to attract those seeking quality. Most of it is salt pans, cheap bars and mosquitoes.

    For this region to have 68 quality self financing developments you would have to believe Elvis is still alive and living on the moon. ๐Ÿ™‚

  • #118791
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    I’ve asked for confirmation. The figures were slightly wrong. There are, in fact, 47 new developments, and 14 that were stopped but have started again, total 61 under construction between Pilar DLH and Santa Pola.

    I haven’t counted them myself, but my source is someone I trust, and more likely to know the true situation than people on this forum who haven’t been down their counting new developments recently.

    But like I say, you don’t have to believe it if you don’t want to.

  • #118793
    Profile photo of logan
    logan
    Participant

    My best guess is these developments were left over from the boom. Half finished or abandon. Under pressure from creditor banks the developer is trying to complete them using the stage method principal. I do not believe they are brand new projects, the odd one perhaps but most will be historical with massive debt burdens. If the developer offers them cheap enough some investors will bite. Cash flows however small stays off bankruptcy.

    As Mark has extended the geographical area that makes my scenario more likely.

    It’s impossible to start a new development using stage payments and selling off plan in the current financial environment. I actually was involved in that process in the seventies and it will only work in a high credit environment where potential buyers and suppliers have access to money.

  • #118794
    Profile photo of angie
    angie
    Spectator

    I don’t know that area other than what you see and hear about mass overdevelopment, I can’t see how so many ‘new’ developments are being built in that area, it does sound as if they are re-starting unfinished projects as logan says. Mark you posted recently about demolition day getting nearer in that area, huge unsold glut etc so why start new develoments there, who will buy them? The stage payment funding also seems a strange one! ๐Ÿ™„

    Hopefully the person who originally supplied the info could supply the links, then we can be in no doubt ๐Ÿ™„

    Does this still constitute a ‘big and dramatic improvement in a relatively short space of time’? ๐Ÿ™„

  • #118785
    Profile photo of logan
    logan
    Participant

    View the repossessed developments currently available from just one bank in that area of Alicante. I got to 21 pages before I got bored. ๐Ÿ™ There are in fact 71 pages in that area.
    http://www.solvia.es/resultadosOportunidades.asp?idProvincia=3&_hasta_dormitorios=7&_desde_m2=0&filtroTipoObraNueva=S&filtroTipoSegundaMano=S&nav=1&mapa=N&web=O

  • #118786
    Profile photo of DBMarcos99
    DBMarcos99
    Participant

    Property prices rose in Spain in the 3rd quarter by 0.7%, the first rise since 2010

    http://www.thinkspain.com/news-spain/23671/property-prices-on-the-up

    Data from the National Institute of Statistics (INE) confirm that house prices are moving in a positive direction after 12 consecutive quarterly drops.

    In the second quarter of 2013 house prices only dropped by 0.8%, compared with the 6.6% fall the previous quarter, so there were already signs that a recovery was on its way.

    Of course it’s too early to be sure that this is a definite sea-change or maybe just a blip.

  • #118787
    Profile photo of logan
    logan
    Participant

    In the second quarter of 2013 house prices only dropped by 0.8%, compared with the 6.6% fall the previous quarter, so there were already signs that a recovery was on its way.

    Rejoice. ๐Ÿ˜†

  • #118789
    Profile photo of angie
    angie
    Spectator

    Marcos, early this year you were posting ‘the tide has turned for Spain’ saying unemployment would fall (this was just seasonal), property would pick up etc etc and since then things have not changed much, and, certain factors are worse now as below, plus SPI has been negative with some of it’s articles as others have.

    There are still over 2 million unsold homes, some 3-4million empty housing units according to various sites. Sareb failed to attract enough high bids in it’s 1st sale of commercial real estate and is having to cut the size of it’s portfolios to make them more attractive, in fact it had 30 bids all below what it wanted. Don’t forget Sareb hides all NPLs from other Banks.

    10-15% transaction costs dissuade buyers according to SPI article on 20th October headed ‘Spanish Housing Market showing signs of anther decline’.

    Unemployment rose again in October to 26.7%, Euro Vegas pulled, Press and media coverage of 1000’s of illegal homes face threat of demolishment. It doesn’t constitute a ‘definite sea-change’. ๐Ÿ™„

    In certain good locations things may be picking up property wise, ‘quality always sells’ if the price is right 8)

  • #118782
    Profile photo of DBMarcos99
    DBMarcos99
    Participant

    @angie wrote:

    Marcos, early this year you were posting ‘the tide has turned for Spain’ saying unemployment would fall (this was just seasonal), property would pick up etc etc and since then things have not changed much, and, certain factors are worse now as below, plus SPI has been negative with some of it’s articles as others have.
    ..

    Ha – A lot of things have improved. Which is great news for the Spanish needing jobs, bad news for the tag team opeating here and across several talkboards with their desire to see things get worse.

    Reflected in higher confidence in big cities too – just look at the Christmas crowds we get in Madrid at weekends now. Bars, restaurants, shops etc are packed

    I can confirm that at weekends it’s almost impossible to get lunch in many central Madrid establishments – as I found out to my cost last Saturday. Don’t fall for the haters’ propaganda, use your eyes!

    http://www.elmundo.es/madrid/2013/12/07/52a257fa61fd3d61738b457f.html

  • #118783
    Profile photo of angie
    angie
    Spectator

    Marcos you talk so much b


    t on sites, Christmas shopping crowds are out in force in London, Paris, New York and probably all major Capitals and Cities that celebrate Christmas. So you choose to ignore all those homeless, food bank people, Sareb evictions etc, those 1000’s of Brits whose homes face demolition, those whose property values have halved in Spain, those cancelled large scale projects, the readily available recent SPI reports mentioned previously, Acuna’s figures of property glut, NPL’s absorbed by Sareb, we could go on but you’ve got your rose tints or eyepads on as usual ๐Ÿ˜† ๐Ÿ˜†

    Let’s face it your boasting that the ‘tide has turned’ several times this year was premature to say the least :mrgreen:

  • #118784
    Profile photo of DBMarcos99
    DBMarcos99
    Participant

    @angie wrote:

    Marcos you talk so much b


    t on sites, Christmas shopping crowds are out in force in London, Paris, New York and probably all major Capitals and Cities that celebrate Christmas. So you choose to ignore all those homeless, food bank people, Sareb evictions etc, those 1000’s of Brits whose homes face demolition, those whose property values have halved in Spain, those cancelled large scale projects, the readily available recent SPI reports mentioned previously, Acuna’s figures of property glut, NPL’s absorbed by Sareb, we could go on but you’ve got your rose tints or eyepads on as usual ๐Ÿ˜† ๐Ÿ˜†

    Let’s face it your boasting that the ‘tide has turned’ several times this year was premature to say the least :mrgreen:

    Angie your multi-board collaborators were boasting earlier that 1 ) the unemployment trends would be terrible again by November and that 2 ) the recession in France would totally wreck Spain’s excellent export achievements.

    Both were wrong thankfully (along with all the other doomster predictions, that expats would need to be shipped back by the Foreigm Office, that the Euro would collapse, that Santander would fall etc etc) Your doomster gang have been wrong so many times it’s laughable.

    The November figures, for the first time in 24 years showed a fall in unemployment. It may have been a lot lower than the falls over 5 months of summer, but even so a big blow to the evil bunch (yes I do regard your lot as evil) who wished for bad tidings.

    And Spanish exports are still performing extremely well. Logan take note.

    Tourist spend numbers are well up this year as well.

    And the car industry is looking good

    “Spanish factories are increasing output and creating jobs”

    http://elpais.com/elpais/2013/12/16/inenglish/1387208815_373029.html

    No wonder confidence is returning, thank heavens, I expect (as well as hope) to see unemployment fall further in the coming years. Good news (but not for the hater brigade here).

  • #118780
    Profile photo of katy
    katy
    Spectator

    Not haters, just realists. I hope it does get better there as I have friends and relatives living through it. So you regard a few of us as evil ๐Ÿ˜ฏ Now you are just being silly!

    As for your photo which you have put on another forum ๐Ÿ™„ your were told it is out of context. The crowd weren’t shopping…it was an event with Disney costumes…take another look folks ๐Ÿ˜†

    You don’t seem very busy in Madrid as you are bombarding the forums with propoganda again :mrgreen:

  • #118781
    Profile photo of DBMarcos99
    DBMarcos99
    Participant

    @katy wrote:

    Not haters, just realists. I hope it does get better there as I have friends and relatives lving through it.

    As for your photo which you have put on another forum ๐Ÿ™„ your were told it is out of context. The crowd weren’t shopping…it was an event with Disney costumes…take another look folks ๐Ÿ˜†

    You don’t seem very busy in Madrid as you are bombarding the forums with propoganda again :mrgreen:

    You’re welcome to come to Madrid any night at this time of year and you’ll see packed shops, bars, restaurants etc.
    Ask anyone else here what the centre is like here, especially at weekends.
    If you like I’m sure there are plenty of youtube clips showing the crowds here too. The fact that you choose not to believe what everyone can see with their own eyes, and try and associate it with my personal state of “busyness” speaks volumes. Keep sucking those lemons!

    And here’s 1 of those videos. Shopping crowds in the centre on the first busy weekend – Along Puerta del Sol, Preciados, Tetuan and up to Callao – and I can assure you it was just as busy last weekend. Only a real distorter of the truth would try and put those crowds down to a “Disney Promotion” Do you really know so little of Spain? Keep denying, it’s laughable, I’d have thought you’d have tried the “but it will all peter out in smoke” tract by now.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LH0B_2n6DDM

  • #118778
    Profile photo of DBMarcos99
    DBMarcos99
    Participant

    And another video. Still denying?

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wb5QtGA2qG8

  • #118779
    Profile photo of logan
    logan
    Participant

    I have written on here recently that Spanish exports were increasing and that is a welcome trend. The export sector however does not create much employment. It tends to be seasonal and use large amounts of unskilled clandestine migrant labour. There is also a limited effect on Spanish GDP due to capacity and capability problems linked to a lack of outside investment.

    It more than silly to accuse the property realists on this forum of either hating Spain or not wishing to see any recovery in the market. I would be more than happy to see any genuine asset value spike, it benefits us all. However it is not happening and no one should believe it is. That is not to say it will never happen but the well documented and severe headwinds in place make it unlikely for years to come.

    What I do continue to post is the current market conditions as best I see them based on long experience and constant evaluation. I post to try and save anyone tempted to enter into the Spanish market from making a serious loss or worse losing their entire life savings. Knowledgeable risk is one thing, blind acceptance of optimism plain stupid.

    These truths of course cut directly across the interests of all the property sellers on here who have a vested interest in talking up the market. They try and convince the less market educated that it’s always a good time to buy and the roses in the garden smell so sweet.

    The truth historically is the Spanish property market has and will always be a high risk minefield. That is because it’s not regulated effectively or supervised by the authorities and consequently attracts the unscrupulous and dishonest. When things go very wrong and they do ALL the time the hapless buyers are on their own and will always lose.

  • #118777
    Profile photo of DBMarcos99
    DBMarcos99
    Participant

    @logan wrote:

    I have written on here recently that Spanish exports were increasing and that is a welcome trend. The export sector however does not create much employment. It tends to be seasonal and use large amounts of unskilled clandestine migrant labour. There is also a limited effect on Spanish GDP due to capacity and capability problems linked to a lack of outside investment.

    It more than silly to accuse the property realists on this forum of either hating Spain or not wishing to see any recovery in the market. I would be more than happy to see any genuine asset value spike, it benefits us all. However it is not happening and no one should believe it is. That is not to say it will never happen but the well documented and severe headwinds in place make it unlikely for years to come.

    What I do continue to post is the current market conditions as best I see them based on long experience and constant evaluation. I post to try and save anyone tempted to enter into the Spanish market from making a serious loss or worse losing their entire life savings. Knowledgeable risk is one thing, blind acceptance of optimism plain stupid.

    These truths of course cut directly across the interests of all the property sellers on here who have a vested interest in talking up the market. They try and convince the less market educated that it’s always a good time to buy and the roses in the garden smell so sweet.

    The truth historically is the Spanish property market has and will always be a high risk minefield. That is because it’s not regulated effectively or supervised by the authorities and consequently attracts the unscrupulous and dishonest. When things go very wrong and they do ALL the time the hapless buyers are on their own and will always lose.

    Thank you for the measured post – better than I’ve seen you do on the OlivePress for sure.
    And I’d tend to agree with you that there is always a measure of risk. The problem is that the risk exists on both sides – the saying “a rising tide floats all ships” could come into play. I personally think renting is far better option at this point in time – but who can honestly predict with any accuracy that prices will remain stable for the next 10 or 20 years?

  • #118774
    Profile photo of logan
    logan
    Participant

    Olive Press? I have never posted there. Good to read you believe renting the best option Marcos. I might release you from my ignore list now. I’m unsure what you mean by ‘risks on both sides’ however. Perhaps you might explain.

    The relationship between buyer and seller has to be one of trust. Not predator against victim as it’s been in the past.

    Spain need to implement systemic regulation in the property purchase and the responsibility for policing that given to agents with a proven track record of qualifications and honesty. Only able to operate as such with a financial bond and licence issued by a regulatory body with powers of supervision and suspension. That’s the case in France and it eliminates the cowboys completely. Penalties for transgression are severe.

    Further planning consents should not be in the gift of the local mayor but as in UK given to a regulated professional and qualified planning service.

    Only then will Spain’s property market ever become clean.

  • #118776
    Profile photo of katy
    katy
    Spectator

    @dbmarcos99 wrote:

    And here’s 1 of those videos. Shopping crowds in the centre on the first busy weekend – Along Puerta del Sol, Preciados, Tetuan and up to Callao – and I can assure you it was just as busy last weekend. Only a real distorter of the truth would try and put those crowds down to a “Disney PromotionDo you really know so little of Spain? Keep denying, it’s laughable, I’d have thought you’d have tried the “but it will all peter out in smoke” tract by now.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LH0B_2n6DDM

    As I said you are getting silly, paranoid too. I was refering to what someone else said about the “Disney promotion”…you didn’t take it up with them did you ๐Ÿ˜† . neither did i say it wasn’t busy in Madrid, would be in dire straits if a capital city wasn’t ๐Ÿ™„ You are pathetic. Anyway, won’t distract you anymore from the Christmas rush ๐Ÿ˜†

  • #118771
    Profile photo of DBMarcos99
    DBMarcos99
    Participant

    Olive Press? I have never posted there. Good to read you believe renting the best option Marcos. I might release you from my ignore list now. I’m unsure what you mean by ‘risks on both sides’ however. Perhaps you might explain.

    Well not sure I can understand how you’re talking to me now when I’m on “ignore” ๐Ÿ™„
    But yes renting seems the best option currently in Spain.
    The risk comes when you stay 10 or 20 years in one area, and the rents start to rise…and besides all that rent is money down the drain – or so house owners normally say.
    As I mentioned earlier, anyone who can predict that prices will be stable for 10 or even 5 years, is blowing in the wind.

  • #118772
    Profile photo of katy
    katy
    Spectator

    @logan wrote:

    I have written on here recently that Spanish exports were increasing and that is a welcome trend. The export sector however does not create much employment. It tends to be seasonal and use large amounts of unskilled clandestine migrant labour. There is also a limited effect on Spanish GDP due to capacity and capability problems linked to a lack of outside investment.
    .

    The Andalucian hotel association stated that increased tourism this year didn’t create any jobs.

  • #118768
    Profile photo of angie
    angie
    Spectator

    The gloves are off again Marcos, Steviedeluxe, Mark Nessfield, were you ‘invited’ back on to this topic, your timing is impeccable? ๐Ÿ˜† ๐Ÿ˜† It had gone relatively peaceful and quiet on here without you of late, most of us seemed to be getting on well, even old adversaries, but you’re back so we’re up for it โ—

    BTW We realists will only counter the bullshit so if you up the anti so be it :mrgreen:

    Your reference to logan on Olive Press sounds like paranoia. Do you post on there under yet another name, do enlighten us please ๐Ÿ™„

  • #118769
    Profile photo of DBMarcos99
    DBMarcos99
    Participant

    @angie wrote:

    The gloves are off again Marcos, Steviedeluxe, Mark Nessfield, were you ‘invited’ back on to this topic, your timing is impeccable? ๐Ÿ˜† ๐Ÿ˜† It had gone relatively peaceful and quiet on here without you of late, most of us seemed to be getting on well, even old adversaries, but you’re back so we’re up for it โ—

    BTW We realists will only counter the bullshit so if you up the anti so be it :mrgreen:

    Your reference to logan on Olive Press sounds like paranoia. Do you post on there under yet another name, do enlighten us please ๐Ÿ™„

    Angie – you have posted what you believe is my real name again

    Question again – Do you act as an estate agent for Italian properties. Yes or NO?

    About time you came clean.

  • #118770
    Profile photo of Chopera
    Chopera
    Participant

    @dbmarcos99 wrote:

    Property prices rose in Spain in the 3rd quarter by 0.7%, the first rise since 2010

    http://www.thinkspain.com/news-spain/23671/property-prices-on-the-up

    Data from the National Institute of Statistics (INE) confirm that house prices are moving in a positive direction after 12 consecutive quarterly drops.

    In the second quarter of 2013 house prices only dropped by 0.8%, compared with the 6.6% fall the previous quarter, so there were already signs that a recovery was on its way.

    Of course it’s too early to be sure that this is a definite sea-change or maybe just a blip.

    It is best not to use property prices as a measure of how well the Spanish economy is doing. The best thing for the Spanish economy is that they stay low, or start to rise only after the fundamentals have improved. Personally I think spain will turn the corner once small business activity takes off. The government has been running campaigns to help people start their own business but further reform is required to create a healthy amount of business activity.

  • #118828
    Profile photo of angie
    angie
    Spectator

    Marcos I’ll let you enlighten me here as to whether I am an agent for Italian property, I look forward to it, but just a word of caution, be careful you are not libellous as I previously raised your posts about this to Mark. Not sure why such an agent would want to post on Spanish property matters ๐Ÿ˜† BTW try to distinguish the differences between reality and jest ๐Ÿ™„

    Now, how has your 1st 3 months gone as a book shop manager in Madrid? Are you pleased with your move from booming London and walks around the park at last? ๐Ÿ™„

  • #118829
    Profile photo of katy
    katy
    Spectator

    @dbmarcos99 wrote:

    Angie your multi-board collaborators were boasting earlier that 1 ) the unemployment trends would be terrible again by November and that 2 ) the recession in France would totally wreck Spain’s excellent export achievements.

    Both were wrong thankfully (along with all the other doomster predictions, that expats would need to be shipped back by the Foreigm Office, that the Euro would collapse, that Santander would fall etc etc) Your doomster gang have been wrong so many times it’s laughable.

    The November figures, for the first time in 24 years showed a fall in unemployment. It may have been a lot lower than the falls over 5 months of summer, but even so a big blow to the evil bunch (yes I do regard your lot as evil) who wished for bad tidings.

    No wonder confidence is returning, thank heavens, I expect (as well as hope) to see unemployment fall further in the coming years. Good news (but not for the hater brigade here).

    I don’t think you know many spaniards. Here is one of 138 comments most saying the same about Government stats.

    Es lo mismo que con el paro…. En el momento que dejas de estar registrado como demandante de empleo o entras en cualquier programa…. zas !

    …and this re. rising property prices

    Yo tampoco lo entiendo, hay un monton de casas vacias, que llevan aรฑos en venta, y cuyos precios van cayendo. No informa el articulo de la metodologรญa seguida para obtener estos porcentajes, pero teniendo en cuenta que hasta ahora todas las instituciones, no han hecho mas que tomar medidas para tratar de evitar o postergar el necesario ajuste de precios del mercado inmobiliario, me pregunto ยฟno serรกn datos manipulados? ยฟmerece el INE alguna confianza? Yo lo siento pero a estas alturas , ya no me fio ni de mi padre?

  • #118830
    Profile photo of DBMarcos99
    DBMarcos99
    Participant

    @angie wrote:

    Marcos I’ll let you enlighten me here as to whether I am an agent for Italian property, I look forward to it, but just a word of caution, be careful you are not libellous as I previously raised your posts about this to Mark. Not sure why such an agent would want to post on Spanish property matters ๐Ÿ˜† BTW try to distinguish the differences between reality and jest ๐Ÿ™„

    Now, how has your 1st 3 months gone as a book shop manager in Madrid? Are you pleased with your move from booming London and walks around the park at last? ๐Ÿ™„

    So you’re unable to even give a straight forward answer to the question?

    At least it shows you’re not a bare-faced liar. But it does give the impression of hiding something! If someone asks me if I operate as an agent for Spanish or for British property I can honestly say no. Interesting that you can’t confirm or deny an Italian interest.

    As for my circumstances – they change daily! I certainly feel there are even more business opportunities here than I previously realised. The question is whether I can capitalise on them or not, there are business people here far more proficient than I can claim to be, just I have the advantage of being a native English speaker. And I’m afraid I won’t be divulging those opportunities here, I don’t want others to cash in and freeze me out.

  • #118831
    Profile photo of logan
    logan
    Participant

    Yes Chopera I agree, rising property prices is the very last thing Spain needs both now and for many years to come. However I believe there is almost no risk of it happening.

    The problem with encouraging small business is the current lack of lending capital. The banks are all still smarting from the wounds and reluctant to lend. Also until it’s easier to hire and fire labour the unemployment figures will change little especially for the young.

    In the Eurozone there are 72 million people under the age of 25 unemployed. What a great success the single currency is.

  • #118832
    Profile photo of angie
    angie
    Spectator

    You’re just a provocative chappie marcosdeluxe, you made the accusation so you prove it, it’s not for me to answer yes or no to a banal question, I could ask you if you are a man or a mouse by why would you answer yes or no? You have your wires crossed old boy ๐Ÿ˜†

    Now get back to the topic, you historically hijack topics to take them off thread, what do you know about the bubble cycle? ๐Ÿ™„

  • #118840
    Profile photo of DBMarcos99
    DBMarcos99
    Participant

    @angie wrote:

    You’re just a provocative chappie marcosdeluxe, you made the accusation so you prove it, it’s not for me to answer yes or no to a banal question, I could ask you if you are a man or a mouse by why would you answer yes or no? You have your wires crossed old boy ๐Ÿ˜†

    Now get back to the topic, you historically hijack topics to take them off thread, what do you know about the bubble cycle? ๐Ÿ™„

    I think it’s perfectly valid to ask if you have a vested interest in selling Italian property, when you post here. Of course there is no law that says you have to come clean, but it’s a bit hypocritical of you to demand answers from me when you won’t answer that basic one. Remember it’s you (again) who reverted to the personal angle on this thread, by publishing what you believe is my real life name.

  • #118841
    Profile photo of DBMarcos99
    DBMarcos99
    Participant

    @katy wrote:

    @dbmarcos99 wrote:
    Angie your multi-board collaborators were boasting earlier that 1 ) the unemployment trends would be terrible again by November and that 2 ) the recession in France would totally wreck Spain’s excellent export achievements.

    Both were wrong thankfully (along with all the other doomster predictions, that expats would need to be shipped back by the Foreigm Office, that the Euro would collapse, that Santander would fall etc etc) Your doomster gang have been wrong so many times it’s laughable.

    The November figures, for the first time in 24 years showed a fall in unemployment. It may have been a lot lower than the falls over 5 months of summer, but even so a big blow to the evil bunch (yes I do regard your lot as evil) who wished for bad tidings.

    No wonder confidence is returning, thank heavens, I expect (as well as hope) to see unemployment fall further in the coming years. Good news (but not for the hater brigade here).

    I don’t think you know many spaniards.

    I live and work in Spain, but that doesn’t mean I speak for all (or even most Spanish). My landlord, business contacts or my customers are only ever going to be a small subset of people in this city.
    Incidentally you have your location as the CDS but I thought you’d been back in the UK for 6 years at least?

  • #118842
    Profile photo of angie
    angie
    Spectator

    Are you on leave again Marcos and do you where a sombrero, yes or no? ๐Ÿ˜†

    Do you intend to answer the topic question, yes or no? ๐Ÿ™„

  • #118843
    Profile photo of DBMarcos99
    DBMarcos99
    Participant

    @angie wrote:

    Are you on leave again Marcos and do you where a sombrero, yes or no? ๐Ÿ˜†

    Do you intend to answer the topic question, yes or no? ๐Ÿ™„

    Hey, if you don’t want to clarify whether you have a vested interest, then fair enough. I’m sure there are plenty of others on here in the same boat. But try your stalking “is this your real name” tactics again, and I will repeat the question of you. Your choice.

  • #118846
    Profile photo of angie
    angie
    Spectator

    You’ve tried this before Marcos, rather troll-like isn’t it, you’re old enough so grow up and stop taking topics off thread which you do of old :mrgreen: If you feel you know something about me which you want to air in public then go ahead, but watch out for libel, we have a lawyer friend who lives on the CDS who has already been informed of your baiting and he would be used!!! ๐Ÿ˜ก

    You appear to have no view on the topic question ๐Ÿ˜†

  • #118850
    Profile photo of katy
    katy
    Spectator

    Marcos you know exactly when I left Spain as I had to correct you on another forum. 8) How long have you been there…3 months approx. i was there almost 15 years…when it used to be a nicer place :mrgreen:

  • #118851
    Profile photo of DBMarcos99
    DBMarcos99
    Participant

    @katy wrote:

    Marcos you know exactly when I left Spain as I had to correct you on another forum. 8) How long have you been there…3 months approx. i was there almost 15 years…when it used to be a nicer place :mrgreen:

    I’ve been in Spain before as you well know, and have known the place since the 80s.
    Don’t try and mislead everyone with your location: Costa del sol, when you’ve been back in the UK for what 7 (or is it 6 ) years? Please tell us if that is incorrect ๐Ÿ˜†
    It really shouldn’t make a difference to your knowledge as regards Marbella and the CDS especially if you really do have family connections there.

  • #118853
    Profile photo of DBMarcos99
    DBMarcos99
    Participant

    Meanwhile here’s a reason why the Spanish may not have the appetite to take adavantage of lower house prices. according to the site owner Mark, it’s foreign investors who are able to pay less, but not the Spanish

    http://www.spanishpropertyinsight.com/2013/12/15/spaniards-missing-lower-house-prices/

    Which helps explain why foreign demand for Spanish property is the only market segment showing any vitality in recent years. Home sales to foreigners exploded 24.7pc in Q3, to 12,070, the ninth consecutive quarter of growth. Foreign buyers are now 17.2pc of the market, the highest level since the Government started publishing this data. Foreign buyers were concentrated in Alicante (3,158), Malaga (1,552), Barcelona (889), Girona (758), and Tenerife (705).

  • #118854
    Profile photo of katy
    katy
    Spectator

    @dbmarcos99 wrote:

    @katy wrote:
    Marcos you know exactly when I left Spain as I had to correct you on another forum. 8) How long have you been there…3 months approx. i was there almost 15 years…when it used to be a nicer place :mrgreen:

    I’ve been in Spain before as you well know, and have known the place since the 80s.
    Don’t try and mislead everyone with your location: Costa del sol, when you’ve been back in the UK for what 7 (or is it 6 ) years? Please tell us if that is incorrect ๐Ÿ˜†
    It really shouldn’t make a difference to your knowledge as regards Marbella and the CDS especially if you really do have family connections there.

    Can’t be arsed to mess around changing location. Anyone who reads my posts knows when I left. I have always been transparent on here. Cease trying to muddy the discussion by implying things aren’t true. You are a nasty piece of work ๐Ÿ˜ˆ

  • #118855
    Profile photo of logan
    logan
    Participant

    Marcos.
    If I were you I would take a deep breath and ask yourself if the attacks you make on forum members really further your ’cause’ any further.

    Any independent reader would wonder just what your agenda really is. Marks quote is no surprise whatever. Foreign buyers have always massively contributed to the Spanish market. Marks point out in the piece you quote that cash buyers fare better than borrowers. Again no surprise there, borrowing money always costs, either if you are Spanish or any other nationality.

    I don’t believe that foreigners armed with wads of cash are heading to buy so called bargains in Spain. Cash buyers are very savvy. That’s why they have the cash available. They know if they work hard and spend weeks searching for a deal they may well find the odd genuine one. However the costs attached to owning Spanish property these days will make them think twice or thrice. Then head for the airport unless the buy is exceptional and in reality there are very few of those.

    The realists who post on here have no agenda other than to warn potential buyers that Spain is a dangerous place to invest in property. Property writers like Mark would be well advised to point that out occasionally together with the reasons why. ๐Ÿ™‚

  • #118856
    Profile photo of DBMarcos99
    DBMarcos99
    Participant

    @katy wrote:

    @dbmarcos99 wrote:
    @katy wrote:
    Marcos you know exactly when I left Spain as I had to correct you on another forum. 8) How long have you been there…3 months approx. i was there almost 15 years…when it used to be a nicer place :mrgreen:

    I’ve been in Spain before as you well know, and have known the place since the 80s.
    Don’t try and mislead everyone with your location: Costa del sol, when you’ve been back in the UK for what 7 (or is it 6 ) years? Please tell us if that is incorrect ๐Ÿ˜†
    It really shouldn’t make a difference to your knowledge as regards Marbella and the CDS especially if you really do have family connections there.

    Can’t be arsed to mess around changing location. Anyone who reads my posts knows when I left. I have always been transparent on here. Cease trying to muddy the discussion by implying things aren’t true. You are a nasty piece of work ๐Ÿ˜ˆ

    If you’ve always been transparent why are you still trying to hide when you left? I can understand anyone not getting around to updating their status, but please stop assuming everyone knows. And as I state, it really shouldn’t matter, even I acknowledge you have experience in the Marbella area. It’s when you pooh-pooh other people’s experience in other parts of Spain that you obviously can’t have such good knowledge of, that it galls.

  • #118858
    Profile photo of angie
    angie
    Spectator

    Marcos, why do you continue taking discussions off topic? ๐Ÿ™„ Helloooooo bubble cycle!!!!! Start another thread if you must! ๐Ÿ™„

  • #118859
    Profile photo of DBMarcos99
    DBMarcos99
    Participant

    @angie wrote:

    Marcos, why do you continue taking discussions off topic? ๐Ÿ™„ Helloooooo bubble cycle!!!!! Start another thread if you must! ๐Ÿ™„

    Pot meet Kettle! ๐Ÿ˜†

    Actually Mark has a good article today pointing out that although prices rose in Q3 it doesn’t mean that the market has bottomed out

    http://www.spanishpropertyinsight.com/2013/12/17/official-house-price-index-q3/?utm_content=bufferaaaff&utm_source=buffer&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=Buffer

  • #118860
    Profile photo of angie
    angie
    Spectator

    Excellent self description of yourself, both pot and kettle Marcos, for once I agree with you, but still off topic nonetheless :mrgreen:

    Mark is correct in saying ‘it doesn’t mean prices have bottomed out’ there are some other worrying factors which I shall explain in another topic, it involves banks and corporates again ๐Ÿ™„

  • #118861
    Profile photo of logan
    logan
    Participant

    The British tend to believe that annual residential property price increases are a given. In Britain, recessions apart that view may be true. It’s true because of geographical limits to the amount and scale of development, a strong domestic economy and positive government intervention causing demand always to exceed supply. It’s not difficult to understand that it’s in everyone’s best interests to see that status quo continue. Everyone of course except the hapless first time buyer struggling to buy a home.

    The British who venture outside their shores seeking to invest in property carry that preconception and expectation with them. However in Europe it’s not a given.

    To being with and I could write an essay on this subject if I could be bothered the market conditions in Europe are very different. There is no restricted geographical problem to building property in most EU southern states except perhaps Italy. So supply can cope with demand.

    Spain has a vast and empty hinterland that can be easily developed given the political will. The growth potential is huge if the demand was ever there. France equally is relatively under developed in property compared the UK. What weakens these markets is the economic activity in the country as a whole. The indigenous population simply don’t have the ability to pay vast amount for somewhere to live.

    That effect acts as a cap on property values. During the boom it was distorted by too much easy credit. Now what’s happening is a return to the historical norms which always persisted in these markets. ie: Static prices, slow growth and stability. Spanish property was never a route to wealth. Traditionally for Brits It was a method of hiding capital, gaining a tax free income on capital and having a holiday. If capital gain arose they taxed you on it anyway.

    The market has changed, or rather reverted to the conditions of the past past, which in my view for the Spanish is a benefit. The backlog of unsold property will be a mill stone on the market for years. There will be blips and troughs along they way in the coming years but I believe at best the market will remain almost static from here on. Which may or may not give the banks and the market much needed time to recover.

  • #118862
    Profile photo of zenkarma
    zenkarma
    Participant

    @dbmarcos99 wrote:

    Actually Mark has a good article today pointing out that although prices rose in Q3 it doesn’t mean that the market has bottomed out

    I think Mark’s analysis in that article is spot on.

    The quarterly increase means nothing in the overall scheme and as Mark rightly points out given the low number of transactions just a few fairly large price sales could skew the data to produce a small quarterly increase.

    The bottom line says it allโ€”prices at still down 7.9% on the year.

    I fully expect this situation to continue for the foreseeable future. As logan points out in his excellent post, it’s hard to see where the demand is going to come from to increase prices in the short, medium and long terms.

    It’s similar in some ways to the British Government thinking the economy is improving due to a small increase in GDP. What they’re not looking at and in my opinion is far more telling of what’s actually going on is the decline in GDP per capita. If GDP is marginally rising and GDP per capita falling, the economy is becoming less productive not more.

  • #118866
    Profile photo of katy
    katy
    Spectator

    Moodys says Spanish property prices will continue to fall until 2015.

    Edited to keep marcos happy

  • #118868
    Profile photo of DBMarcos99
    DBMarcos99
    Participant

    @katy wrote:

    Moodys says Spanish property prices will continue to fall until 2005.

    You’re not a real person, you’re a robot aren’t you? Very good one, I have to admit! ๐Ÿ˜‰

  • #118869
    Profile photo of logan
    logan
    Participant

    You are a dwork Marcos, Katy clearly meant 2015. It was a typo don’t rush to condemn it’s so childish. ๐Ÿ‘ฟ

  • #118870
    Profile photo of DBMarcos99
    DBMarcos99
    Participant

    @logan wrote:

    You are a dwork Marcos, Katy clearly meant 2015. It was a typo don’t rush to condemn it’s so childish. ๐Ÿ‘ฟ

    Well it was as a jest (the smiley normally indicates that to intelligent readers), but there again why are you running around protecting her tail? She’s perfectly capable of her own cutting remarks.

  • #118871
    Profile photo of katy
    katy
    Spectator

    I had a busy day shopping in Guildford and a liquid lunch ๐Ÿ˜† Often make mistakes on my tablet, prefer the lappy.

    Angie, Sometimes Marcos comes across as a sexist bully. Has anyone noticed he never challenges any of the male posters who say the same as you and I.

    Can we get back to the bubble, whats your view Marcos โ“

  • #118872
    Profile photo of angie
    angie
    Spectator

    Marcos, stick to the topic, it’s so immature to pick up on that, you’re goading aren’t you, you’ve made typo errors before? ๐Ÿ™„

  • #118873
    Profile photo of DBMarcos99
    DBMarcos99
    Participant

    @katy wrote:

    I had a busy day shopping in Guildford and a liquid lunch ๐Ÿ˜† Often make mistakes on my tablet, prefer the lappy.

    Angie, Sometimes Marcos comes across as a sexist bully. Has anyone noticed he never challenges any of the male posters who say the same as you and I.

    Don’t talk rubbish. Logan and PeterHun will confirm I normally butt in when they talk what I believe is rubbish.
    In fact let’s face it, Katy, Angie and Logan operate fairly much as a team here.

    Edit: I’m liking the idea that on my own, I’m able to bully Katy AND Angie AND Logan. Get a grip.

  • #118874
    Profile photo of logan
    logan
    Participant

    @dbmarcos99 wrote:

    Edit: I’m liking the idea that on my own, I’m able to bully Katy AND Angie AND Logan. Get a grip.

    I suggest you return to the school playground and come back when you have fully grown.

  • #118875
    Profile photo of DBMarcos99
    DBMarcos99
    Participant

    @logan wrote:

    @dbmarcos99 wrote:
    Edit: I’m liking the idea that on my own, I’m able to bully Katy AND Angie AND Logan. Get a grip.

    I suggest you return to the school playground and come back when you have fully grown.

    The chances of my obeying orders from you are zero. Deal with it.

  • #118876
    Profile photo of angie
    angie
    Spectator

    Marcos, you’ve lost any credibility saying you like ‘bullying’, sounds rather like a MCP, thought those days were long gone. ๐Ÿ˜†

    When will you act your age, and when will you stick to the topics?????? ๐Ÿ™„ :mrgreen:

  • #118877
    Profile photo of DBMarcos99
    DBMarcos99
    Participant

    @angie wrote:

    Marcos, you’ve lost any credibility saying you like ‘bullying’, sounds rather like a MCP, thought those days were long gone. ๐Ÿ˜†

    When will you act your age, and when will you stick to the topics?????? ๐Ÿ™„ :mrgreen:

    You, Logan and Katie can attempt to talk down to me as much as you like.
    It shows you are in collusion.

  • #118878
    Profile photo of angie
    angie
    Spectator

    Paranoia again Marcos ๐Ÿ˜†

    Come on back to the topic ๐Ÿ™„

    04/11/13 S & P sees Spanish house prices continue to fall into 2016. They say ‘there is insufficient ”solvent demand” to absorb the stock of unsold homes as at the end of 2012 of 635,000 of which 30% was in the hands of lenders and Sareb’. Since then R R Acuna and Associates have put this figure up 3 fold +.

    That is the key, ‘insufficient solvent demand’, not enough people have the wonga, too many are feeling the pinch in most countries to revitalise this market ๐Ÿ™„

  • #118879
    Profile photo of DBMarcos99
    DBMarcos99
    Participant

    @angie wrote:

    Paranoia again Marcos ๐Ÿ˜†

    Come on back to the topic ๐Ÿ™„

    04/11/13 S & P sees Spanish house prices continue to fall into 2016. They say ‘there is insufficient ”solvent demand” to absorb the stock of unsold homes as at the end of 2012 of 635,000 of which 30% was in the hands of lenders and Sareb’. Since then R R Acuna and Associates have put this figure up 3 fold +.

    That is the key, ‘insufficient solvent demand’, not enough people have the wonga, too many are feeling the pinch in most countries to revitalise this market ๐Ÿ™„

    Do you really feel entities that couldn’t spot NR going bust a few weeks before it happened, can predict what’s going to happen in 2016 with any accuracy?
    Point is, exports are up in Spain, and tourist numbers are up. This is resulting in inceased confidence. Of course this is dependent on world markets, but we’re told that both the UK and US are getting results from their QE regimes. A rising tide lifts all ships.

  • #118880
    Profile photo of angie
    angie
    Spectator

    I don’t see the correlation between trying to spot a Bank about to go under with S&P’s informed property view (and that of others’) that there are simply too many properties for sale in Spain to be absorbed with solvent funds currently and may be for some time ๐Ÿ™„

    The number of properties is there for all to see, those Banks probably hid the fact that they were stuffed long before, in NR’s case it still resulted in a run ๐Ÿ™„

  • #118882
    Profile photo of zenkarma
    zenkarma
    Participant

    @katy wrote:

    I had a busy day shopping in Guildford…

    Good grief, you’re not far from me! A few miles up the A3 in Esher!

    I’ve just flogged my house, it sold within 3 days of going on the market. Got asking price for it too!

    Just exchanged contracts, completion 10th January.

    ๐Ÿ˜€

  • #118883
    Profile photo of angie
    angie
    Spectator

    Small world ZK, we were in Esher last week visiting family in Thames Ditton, property is moving really fast in the suburbs ๐Ÿ™‚

  • #119528
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    @logan wrote:

    @mark wrote:
    There are now 68 new developments being built on the Costa Blanca between Torrevieja and Pilar de la Horadada, up from just a handful a year ago. None of them are using bank financing. They are selling off-plan and using stage payments to finance the build. There has been a big and dramatic improvement in a relatively short space of time.

    I do find that statement difficult to believe Mark. I am not accusing you of untruths but I would like some links to support it.
    68 developments using stage payments to finance the build” seems very far fetched to my eye.

    I know that strip of coastal region and last time I was there this year I saw no evidence of developments apart from the ones standing empty or abandoned.

    This article at El Mundo reports there are now 52 developments underway in the Vega Baja:
    http://www.elmundo.es/comunidad-valenciana/2014/04/20/5353e14822601d48398b4572.html

  • #119529
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    Well here in Marbella the recovery is well under way (sorry lemons, fat housewives and social misfits); bargains are still to be had in the hills but in central areas the prices are now firm and offers are not entertained. New businesses are opening like crazy and demand for all products is now pretty strong… in fact, the atmosphere is now pretty gungh ho so probably just a matter of months before ocean et al appear on the scene.

    Bars and restaurants have been packed since late March, something we havent seen since 2009; average spend is up 20% as well……

    I know for a fact that barcelona have had the best eight weeks in ten years; absolutely packed with tourists some who will eventually translate into property buyers…

    It’s still a great time to buy in SpaIn!!!!!!!!

  • #119530
    Profile photo of angie
    angie
    Spectator

    Looking forward to seeing the ‘recovery’ in Marbella in next 2 weeks or so, and the durian too ๐Ÿ˜ฎ

    BTW you mention Ocean, would you be pleased to see them and other similar shysters back or would that give Spain a bad name again? ๐Ÿ™„

    Quote ‘it’s still a great time to buy in Spain!!!!!!’ surely that could only apply to good locations and not generally (as in the UK too), and don’t forget to add your 11% completion costs nor use one of those agent recommended lawyers, factor in your buying and selling costs before thinking there’s a profit to be made, buy for lifestyle and not profit ๐Ÿ™„

  • #119532
    Profile photo of katy
    katy
    Spectator

    Hmmm it’s Groundhog Day again I see…selling like hotcakes, booming bars…now where did I read that :mrgreen: I remember it Was on here every March/April ๐Ÿ˜† we are in Marbella in June perhaps we better reserve the restaurants now!

    Ubeda in addition to having a name as being a complete asshole I will now add sexist pig. BTW have you sold those last 4 yet ๐Ÿ˜› Spain needs new builds like another Franco!

    Just had a fantastic week in Nice, bursting at the seams, hotels fully booked, queuing outside restaurants for a table. Pleased to say there weren’t any cranes. Full and booming in London too and can’t get a restaurant locally unless booked by Wednesday for Saturday.

    What does it all mean….not a lot really, unemployment still over 30% in Andalucia and still seeing property agents with shiny trouser arses, scuffed shoes and tatty cars. Ubeda why not try getting a proper job where you don’t have to con people ๐Ÿ’ก

  • #119533
    Profile photo of DBMarcos99
    DBMarcos99
    Participant

    I’d sooner believe Ubeda’s observations (as he lives in Spain), rather than the bitter abuse coming from someone who left Spain many years ago.
    And the economic reports and articles (both within and without Spain) are showing that Spain’s economic recovery is starting to gather speed:

    The rate of expansion in new business accelerated for the second month running in April and was the fastestsince January 2007.
    Higher new business was recorded in both the manufacturing and service sectors, but was more pronounced in the latter.
    Companies have recorded improvements in demand from both domestic and export markets.

    http://www.markit.com/assets/en/docs/commentary/markit-economics/2014/may/ESP_PMI_06_05_2014.pdf

    And just to reinforce the changing of the tide, the construction industry in Spain has created a net number of jobs for the first time since 2008. It’s still only early days, but as the economy continues to pick up speed, more and more people will gain work.
    http://www.idealista.com/news/inmobiliario/vivienda/2014/05/06/728041-los-170-nuevos-puestos-de-trabajo-que-anuncian-el-fin-del-ajuste-en-la-construccion
    I don’t believe house prices will rocket for some time yet (which is good for first time buyers). But stabilisation of prices in the second half of 2014 can only be a good thing?

  • #119535
    Profile photo of logan
    logan
    Participant

    Some posters on here were, at the start of the crash posting positive reports of property in Spain and a wrote rubbish like ‘it’s’great time to buy’. If you had believed them then you would be nursing bruising losses. It’s always a great time to buy if you are a seller or promoter of property living on commissions and advertising revenue.

    It is all artificial, designed solely to extract your money. I listen to sellers of investment funds almost every day and the spiel is always the same because there is nothing new under the sun. Just different ways of saying the same thing.

    There may be some evidence of a slight weakening of the Spanish property disaster. Only because international markets are slightly more confident the Eurozone is emerging from under the stone and the main market for property in Spain the UK is turning the recession around.

    The greatest economic recession in our life time is not over and still has some time to run. Five years before a brief hiatus of rapid growth stalls is my vision.

    However this residential property catastrophe has created many other obstacles in Spain for foreign buyers. Higher taxation, restrictions on letting, residential qualification and negative social change in Spain burdened by massive debt and a right of center government philosophy..

    To simply say it’s “a great time to buy” ignores the new situation and is irresponsible. Not that any intelligent investor would take any notice of these people or I come to that.

    Taking advantage of cheap prices of any commodity carries the almost inevitable disappointment. For the unfortunate truth in this world is you always get exactly what you pay for and if it’s cheap there is a reason you cannot initially see.

    I’m told this week that a major bank has slashed their prices by 25%. Reason? They can’t sell ’em folks.

  • #119536
    Profile photo of angie
    angie
    Spectator

    Prospective buyers should believe those who post on here who don’t have a vested interest, such as katy and logan who have a good knowledge of Spain, with no commercial interests for example. People who sell Spanish property are bound to talk things up, commission is everything. Totally agree with logan’s comment about ‘it’s a great time to buy’ which has been touted for the last 5 years or so, even so called experts have posted the same, and anyone who did buy within that time would be losing lots of money even if they could re-sell. One day the market may floor, but even then it does not make a great time to buy because there’s no investment I know other than foreign property where the transaction costs are so high to negate any growth for years. Talking it up with over 2 million properties for sale is tantamount to deception yet again and designed to part naive people from their money ๐Ÿ˜ก

    Now, I’m down that way shortly and katy says she is in June, so I guess we will see just how the market really is ๐Ÿ™„

    Since stats are the order of the day, according to Spain’s INE on April 9th, Spanish housing sales in February dropped by 27.6% year-on-year, sales of new housing decreased 37.4% in February year-on-year!!

    There’s plenty more where that came from folks ๐Ÿ˜‰ ๐Ÿ™„

  • #119538
    Profile photo of DBMarcos99
    DBMarcos99
    Participant

    Speaking of “bad advice” I’ve just seen a news snippet pass by on Twitter. Those people who held shares on the Spanish stock exchange have seen the value rise by 57% since Rajoy took power.
    So, if you had followed Jeremy Warner, Nigel Farage and all the other doomsters’ advice to pull your money out of Spain, you’d have lost a packet.
    Of course, stocks can do down as well as up. And who’s to say that house prices won’t remain in the doldrums for a while yet? But since economic growth is gathering speed (adjusted upwards by international bodies asa well as those in Spain) we could well see the market stabilising, whilst at the same time foreign purchases continue to grow. Good news both for buyers and sellers, I’d have thought?

  • #119539
    Profile photo of angie
    angie
    Spectator

    Good news indeed, same for those who didn’t buy Spanish property in the last 5 years, would have wiped out gains on the stock market had they invested in both ๐Ÿ™„ ๐Ÿ˜‰ Good news for those who sold I’d have thought ๐Ÿ™„

  • #119540
    Profile photo of katy
    katy
    Spectator

    Well no suprise that you would rather believe Ubeda is there marcus You would believe an old guy from outer mongolia if he was singing your tune! You believe him because he lives in Spain…the fact that he sells property doesn’t come into consideration. Merkit the one you have been quoting over the internet all day isn’t in Spain but that’s allright then ๐Ÿ™„ Did you notice that Idealista says property prices in Spain were down 7% compared with last April so much for increases ๐Ÿ˜†

    Actually I thank my lucky stars everytime I look at my bank accounts that we got our money out of Spain…I would love to tell you how they have increased since we left Spain but I don’t like to rub it in for a struggling expat :mrgreen:

    Weathers better there though…never mind you can’t have it all can you ๐Ÿ˜€

  • #119541
    Profile photo of logan
    logan
    Participant

    57% real growth on the IBEX is yet more evidence of your disingenuous postings Marcos. Real substantive growth of 57% is ridiculous.

    The fact is because of this recession the Ibex fell relentlessly every year. Although I don’t have the percentages to hand but 50-60% is not out of the way. All that it’s now doing is recovering pre-recession levels consistent with market sentiment towards Eurozone markets. That means very little, it means current sentiment is risk on. Tomorrow equally, risk can be off.
    They who bought on the floor have done well but to do it they had to sell assets elsewhere that may have done better.

    It does on the other hand indicate the value of the sage of Omaha’s belief in investing for the very long term and holding on despite those around you heading for the exits.

    Hindsight is such a wonderful gift. ๐Ÿ™‚ ๐Ÿ˜€

  • #119542
    Profile photo of DBMarcos99
    DBMarcos99
    Participant

    @logan wrote:

    57% real growth on the IBEX is yet more evidence of your disingenuous postings Marcos. Real substantive growth of 57% is ridiculous.

    The fact is because of this recession the Ibex fell relentlessly every year. Although I don’t have the percentages to hand but 50-60% is not out of the way. All that it’s now doing is recovering pre-recession levels consistent with market sentiment towards Eurozone markets. That means very little, it means current sentiment is risk on. Tomorrow equally, risk can be off.
    They who bought on the floor have done well but to do it they had to sell assets elsewhere that may have done better.

    It does on the other hand indicate the value of the sage of Omaha’s belief in investing for the very long term and holding on despite those around you heading for the exits.

    Hindsight is such a wonderful gift. ๐Ÿ™‚ ๐Ÿ˜€

    You have to learn to read – I stated that shareholders have gained since Rajoy took power. I’m no fan of many of his policies, but that is fact. The Ibex has NOT fallen relentlessly every year, as it is substantially up over the last 2 years. If anyone is being disingenuous I’d suggest it wasn’t me!
    You can see from this chart it is UP 67% over the last two years. Apologise Logan, or it’s you who will be viewed as the person being “disingenuous”.

    https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^IBEX#symbol=^IBEX;range=2y

  • #119543
    Profile photo of DBMarcos99
    DBMarcos99
    Participant

    @katy wrote:

    **venom**personal attack*** venom etc etc

    Merkit the one you have been quoting over the internet all day isn’t in Spain but that’s allright then ๐Ÿ™„

    **more personal rantings****

    I’ve quoted the international research body Markit, as you’ve been known to rubbish reports from within Spain. But plenty of those too for example BBVA has changed its growth forecast from 1.1% to 1.9%, and they are not alone. Ratings agencies, the IMF, the EU, various banks etc are all noticing the growth starting to take off in Spain.
    Deny it all you like. Tide has turned. ๐Ÿ˜†
    Even that arch-doomster Edward Hugh has started making statements like this:
    “Spain data hard to read right now. Surprisingly strong composite PMI in April. Best in 7 yrs.”

  • #119544
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    never understand these bitter people who have left Spain and then continue to bombardo web sites with their hostile anti Spain vitriol – The fact is that spain is gaining momentum and the whole place is starting to hum – frankly, most people don’t buy a holiday home as an investment; with most purchase taxes around 6 – 10% in the world, agents fees in the same region, never mind capital gains tax !!!! ๐Ÿ˜‰ :wink:people buy to have fun, holiday home, somewhere to escape to !!!! normal people that is – lemons aren’t happy anywhere except at home trolling on websites ๐Ÿ˜ก ๐Ÿ˜ก ๐Ÿ˜ก ๐Ÿ˜ก

  • #119545
    Profile photo of katy
    katy
    Spectator

    Perhaps some of us stay around because we have seen it all and want to protect people from tossers like you and a few other crane spotters :mrgreen: carry on, I have a thick skin. Most sensible people in the UK know that thousands have been conned…it won’t be so easy for you in future, most of you are no better than timeshare sharks ๐Ÿ‘ฟ

  • #119546
    Profile photo of katy
    katy
    Spectator

    @dbmarcos99 wrote:

    @katy wrote:
    **venom**personal attack*** venom etc etc

    Merkit the one you have been quoting over the internet all day isn’t in Spain but that’s allright then ๐Ÿ™„

    **more personal rantings****

    I’ve quoted the international research body Markit, as you’ve been known to rubbish reports from within Spain. But plenty of those too for example BBVA has changed its growth forecast from 1.1% to 1.9%, and they are not alone. Ratings agencies, the IMF, the EU, various banks etc are all noticing the growth starting to take off in Spain.
    Deny it all you like. Tide has turned. ๐Ÿ˜†
    Even that arch-doomster Edward Hugh has started making statements like this:
    “Spain data hard to read right now. Surprisingly strong composite PMI in April. Best in 7 yrs.”

    All this from a bloke who has never bought a property in Spain and possibly anywhere else. He is now looking at franchising his failing business model :mrgreen: some people will do anything to live the dreem ๐Ÿ™„

    Actually the IMF and the EU state that it will take years for Spain’s unemployment to drop below 20% and it’s public sector debt will climb to 104% next year. Great news!

  • #119547
    Profile photo of logan
    logan
    Participant

    Marcos wrote:
    Those people who held shares on the Spanish stock exchange have seen the value rise by 57% since Rajoy took power.

    Marcos made a misleading claim regarding the IBEX performance. Here is the actual growth pattern of the IBEX since 2010.

    http://www.bolsamadrid.es/ing/aspx/Comun/Graficos.aspx?tipo=IBEX

    I have some long term investments tied to the IBEX and will not be looking forward to a 57% return. ๐Ÿ˜€

    Posting such rubbish illustrates why some of us keep trying to post the real story about the Spanish economy and future prospects for the property market. Spain represents one of the most difficult environments for foreign buyers. The country is teeming with smiling assassins who speak your language and want to become your friends as they fleece you blind.

    In my experience foreign buyers mostly leave their brains on the plane. The sun does something to them, convinces them to act in a way they would never countenance in their home country. The sharks know that and are ready and willing to exploit it.

    I don’t believe buyers buy a property in Spain simply “to have fun”. Property is perhaps the biggest investment people make in their lifetime. They expect a return from it not a millstone around their necks, legal problems, demolition orders or huge repair bills.

    Spain is a great country with poor legal provenance and wide scale corruption in every walk of life. Buying a property should carry a health warning but it’s your money at the end of the day.

    BTW. Rajoy was elected in November 2011. Compare that to the IBEX chart and the Marcos claim Rajoy’s government created a Bolsa boom. All cobblers. ๐Ÿ™

  • #119548
    Profile photo of angie
    angie
    Spectator

    Paul Ubeda, all the time you try to mislead people because of your vested interest we will tell them the truth, all the time you refer to lemons, and make sexist comments you will be known as Durian, you know ‘ugly fruit’, as opposed to your twisted ‘bitter lemons’ jibes, as for your mate Marcos well he posts on Brit Expats and gets knocked back with his propaganda there as well. So, we will continue to post the other side of both of your spin posts, remember if you dish it out, you will get it back!! ๐Ÿ™„ :mrgreen:

    Might see you shortly Paul Ubeda Durian, why on earth would you name yourself after a Spanish town with the worst speed humps in Spain? ๐Ÿ˜†

  • #119549
    Profile photo of katy
    katy
    Spectator

    @logan wrote:

    I don’t believe buyers buy a property in Spain simply “to have fun”. Property is perhaps the biggest investment people make in their lifetime. They expect a return from it not a millstone around their necks, legal problems, demolition orders or huge repair bills.

    Spain is a great country with poor legal provenance and wide scale corruption in every walk of life. Buying a property should carry a health warning but it’s your money at the end of the day.

    True, you can have fun staying in a luxury hotel being waited on hand and foot. People buying a second home for holidays at least want to break even in the long term.

  • #119550
    Profile photo of DBMarcos99
    DBMarcos99
    Participant

    @logan wrote:

    Marcos wrote:
    Those people who held shares on the Spanish stock exchange have seen the value rise by 57% since Rajoy took power.

    Marcos made a misleading claim regarding the IBEX performance. Here is the actual growth pattern of the IBEX since 2010.

    http://www.bolsamadrid.es/ing/aspx/Comun/Graficos.aspx?tipo=IBEX

    I have some long term investments tied to the IBEX and will not be looking forward to a 57% return. ๐Ÿ˜€

    Posting such rubbish illustrates why some of us keep trying to post the real story about the Spanish economy and future prospects for the property market. Spain represents one of the most difficult environments for foreign buyers. The country is teeming with smiling assassins who speak your language and want to become your friends as they fleece you blind.

    In my experience foreign buyers mostly leave their brains on the plane. The sun does something to them, convinces them to act in a way they would never countenance in their home country. The sharks know that and are ready and willing to exploit it.

    I don’t believe buyers buy a property in Spain simply “to have fun”. Property is perhaps the biggest investment people make in their lifetime. They expect a return from it not a millstone around their necks, legal problems, demolition orders or huge repair bills.

    Spain is a great country with poor legal provenance and wide scale corruption in every walk of life. Buying a property should carry a health warning but it’s your money at the end of the day.

    BTW. Rajoy was elected in November 2011. Compare that to the IBEX chart and the Marcos claim Rajoy’s government created a Bolsa boom. All cobblers. ๐Ÿ™

    Not trying to mislead us all are you? ๐Ÿ˜† Putting in the chart from 2010 (four years ago) and then admitting that Rajoy wasn’t elected until NOV 2011. What a slippery character you are!

    I have NOT said Rajoy’s government created a Bolsa boom – in fact imo many things have happened despite their actions. BUT it is TRUE that anyone following the UK doomster advice over the last two years (eg pull your money out of Spain as per Farage or Jeremy Warner) would have lost a packet if it had been invested in the Ibex.

    You can see from this chart it is UP from around 6,000 points to over 10,000 over the last two years. Again, you should apologise Logan, or it’s you who will be viewed as the person being “disingenuous”. You made the accusation, and it’s proving to be a classic piece of projection…

    https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^IBEX#symbol=^IBEX;range=2y

  • #119551
    Profile photo of DBMarcos99
    DBMarcos99
    Participant

    Incidentally, the Ibex 2 year growth indicates why you shouldn’t trust other “experts” predictions, whether it’s stocks or house prices. I tend to castigate the doomsters as they’ve been consistently wrong over the last couple of years (Spain to be forced out of the Euro, Santander to fold, UK govt to evacuate expats etc etc). But don’t trust the over-optimistic forecasts either – none of us know what’s around the corner..

  • #119552
    Profile photo of logan
    logan
    Participant

    It’s you who are devious Marcos. I’m not going to waste any more time on this but the chart I posted showed the IBEX movement range for the last 4 years to the present. If you understand anything about markets and in particular stock markets the movements reflect future sentiment not the present. There is some optimism around for the Spanish economy but it’s just that. Written mostly by the very people you say should be ignored, financial journalists and market analysts.

    You can see if you choose to the IBex has yet to return to 2010 level norms. Your claim of 57% growth is untrue. Do you mean 57% from the lowest point in the middle of 2012? If so the market is simply recovering from historic lows and reflects the crisis in the Eurozone being over.

    You cannot cherry pick erroneous facts out of fresh air to support your baseless arguments.

  • #119553
    Profile photo of DBMarcos99
    DBMarcos99
    Participant

    @logan wrote:

    It’s you who are devious Marcos. I’m not going to waste any more time on this but the chart I posted showed the IBEX movement range for the last 4 years to the present. If you understand anything about markets and in particular stock markets the movements reflect future sentiment not the present. There is some optimism around for the Spanish economy but it’s just that. Written mostly by the very people you say should be ignored, financial journalists and market analysts.

    You can see if you choose to the IBex has yet to return to 2010 level norms. Your claim of 57% growth is untrue. Do you mean 57% from the lowest point in the middle of 2012? If so the market is simply recovering from historic lows and reflects the crisis in the Eurozone being over.

    You cannot cherry pick erroneous facts out of fresh air to support your baseless arguments.

    Just look at the graph I posted. I stand by that… and if you think facts are “baseless” then why should we look at your own artificial 4 year chart? (yes, I referred to an artificial period too, the last two years, but you show your arrogance when you dismiss my time period as cherry picking, yet somehow we have to accept the time period you chose- can you guess now why I have little respect for your condescending lectures???) As for optimism about the Spanish economy – I refer to facts, like exports up, tourist numbers up, internal tourist numbers up, external investment up. Even if written by analysts.

  • #119554
    Profile photo of angie
    angie
    Spectator

    Marcos when you mention doomsters being consistently wrong over the last couple of years and then mention some instances of that, why not agree that the ‘experts’ who we castigate have been consistently wrong over the last 5 years that ‘now is the time to buy in Spain’, I’ve lost count of the number of times that so called experts have called the bottom of the market and I believe it’s either wishful thinking or they really erroneously believed that somehow, or worse thinking only of their commissions. What annoys me though is that a number of people probably believed that hype and are now nursing serious losses. Examples work both ways you know ๐Ÿ™„

    When any market (property, stock, gold, oil etc) crashes it is a known fact that there will be opportunities to buy low as people do, several big investors don’t follow the herd they do the opposite. However, most markets don’t have such high transaction costs as Spanish, Cypriot, and many countries’ property markets have, and I’m sure it makes buying a risky proposition if people are doing it for investment only, to make up 20% buying and selling just to break even is very risky, to then expect to profit quickly , potentially dangerous, especially where there is a huge glut of look-a-like properties ๐Ÿ˜ฏ

    A different matter for those buying to live and for long term ๐Ÿ™„

  • #119555
    Profile photo of DBMarcos99
    DBMarcos99
    Participant

    Can we have examples of posters on this board who’ve said “now is the time to buy”?
    For me the “time to buy” is tied up to personal circumstances (job, deposit etc) so it’s impossible to make that call. Currently rent levels are low, and for me it’s only when they start to rise that buying would be a sensible option. But I’m not trying to make a profit, merely pay for living costs in the most economical manner. Others have different priorities.

  • #119556
    Profile photo of angie
    angie
    Spectator

    Several examples on ‘Press articles about the Spanish Property Market’ from 2011, just a quick look showed that you said ‘it’s definitely a buyer’s market’ twice, also you agreed with a leading agent’s quote ‘now is the time to buy for many’ answering ‘I think you’re right


    , Boothy said ‘it’s a buyer’s market at present if you have the cash you can clean-up’ Dec 2011, article of July 2013 here said ‘There has never been a better time to buy in Spain right now’ (how about a year later?), then I remember a property expert was invited on here some 5 years ago or so who was talking the market up but got it totally wrong, and then there’s poor old Durian Ubeda who unlike you has a vested interest in property sales on the Costa del Sol.

    Over the years there have been many, many people talking the property market up in Spain since the crash, mainly agent led, and then some whose homes have dropped in value and can’t be blamed which is unfortunate, these are often those referred to as ‘house trapped in the sun’ on programmes not only about Spain. ๐Ÿ™„

    I saw yesterday a story of a couple who a few years ago sold up in the UK for ยฃ200k to buy their home in the sun for lifestyle, so they invested the lot in Spain. It’s currently valued at ยฃ140k. However the UK has since risen to ยฃ240k, they are down ยฃ100k and now cannot afford to comfortably return to the UK which they want to do in old age to be near family. They lived the dream, which was good, but unfortunately paid the price financially, many others are in the same boat including friends of ours we’re seeing soon ๐Ÿ™

  • #119557
    Profile photo of DBMarcos99
    DBMarcos99
    Participant

    Oh dear Angie – Do you really think “it’s definitely a buyer’s market” is the same as “now is a good time to buy”?
    No wonder you get upset all the time, you’re seeing different meanings to what people are actually writing.
    ๐Ÿ™‚
    Put it another way, I’d say that as the economic growth continues to grow (ok you can put “if” if you like) then it will become less of a buyer’s market as the good properties are snapped up, yet it would still be a decent time to buy (if your circumstances allow). Do you see the difference?
    Anyway, I’m sure you’ll disbelieve the renewed economic growth we’re now experiencing in Spain – you disbelieve those of us who live here, and choose to believe your little group who live outside of Spain. Your choice. But it won’t change the fact the Tide has turned.

  • #119558
    Profile photo of katy
    katy
    Spectator

    Does living in Spain for 5 months qualify you as an expert on the Spanish economy. ๐Ÿ˜†

    I know most of the insight on here comes from anecdotes like seeing a lot of building cranes, se vende signs, someone opening a Brit bar, photos of full shops etc but some cautious people like a bit more info :mrgreen:

  • #119559
    Profile photo of DBMarcos99
    DBMarcos99
    Participant

    @katy wrote:

    Does living in Spain for 5 months qualify you as an expert on the Spanish economy. ๐Ÿ˜†
    :

    I know it’s annoying for you that various sources on the Spanish economy eg Markit, El Pais etc. are publicising the growth in the Spanish economy. Still, maybe it will all go away if you just revert to personal attacks! ๐Ÿ˜† Tide has turned Katy – and you know it.

    http://www.markit.com/assets/en/docs/commentary/markit-economics/2014/may/ESP_PMI_06_05_2014.pdf

    http://economia.elpais.com/economia/2014/05/05/actualidad/1399286330_331298.html

  • #119560
    Profile photo of logan
    logan
    Participant

    @UBEDA wrote:

    I know for a fact that barcelona have had the best eight weeks in ten years; absolutely packed with tourists some who will eventually translate into property buyers…
    It’s still a great time to buy in SpaIn!!!!!!!!

    More offerings from the ‘let’s mislead everyone’ brigade. Just because someone goes to Barcelona does not mean they will buy any property. If that were true the world would be littered with the footprint of second homes.

    The EU commission has warned on 5th May of slower growth in the Eurozone for the next two years and trimmed it’s economic forecasts. Mario Dragi has today hinted at unconventional measures in June this year, probably QE to try and boost the economy. In other words desperate times require desperate measures.

    Yet the sage of Madrid, tapas and beer, Mr Marcos believes otherwise. IBEX booming, housing crisis over and semantic cobblers like ‘it might be a decent time to buy if your circumstances allow’ or as ‘growth continues it will be less of a buyers market’.

    Growth in Spain is anaemic. April 2014 quarter the economy expanded 0.4%. Unemployment around 26% of the working population.

    Have a look as this dismal chart. http://www.tradingeconomics.com/spain/gdp-growth

    Of course there is always hope and it’s encouraging the country has just about emerged from recession. However it’s much too early to believe in any sort of recovery. Spain is well and truly anchored at the bottom of the bubble cycle.

  • #119561
    Profile photo of angie
    angie
    Spectator

    Oh dear marcos, why do you try to nit pick, you asked for examples, I’d previously said ‘people have talked up the market for years’ and got it wrong, and you’ve often talked it up, even saying early last year ‘the tide has turned’ (still saying it despite plenty of contradictory evidence) several times when in fact property which this site is mainly about had not turned, no wonder you get upset all the time here and on british expats forums etc ๐Ÿ™„ :mrgreen:

    I’ve told you people buy in crashed markets, against the tide so to to speak whatever the market, but you still haven’t answered 2 things, first, if you bought Spanish property as was talked up in the last 5 years or so then many would be nursing large losses now, certainly large enough to wipe out your talk of gains on the Ibex. Second, regarding property, I’ve often warned people of 20% rises needed to break even on buying and selling, so what other investments have such punitive costs? So would you agree only buy in Spain for lifestyle and not for investment which is what I’ve suggested for ages as well as others have.

    Also, did you see the example of how it was such a bad decision financially for a Brit couple whose financial asset has lost them ยฃ100k because they chose to live the dream but now need to return? Have you a view on them and many others like them? โ“ :mrgreen:

    BTW Are you closed today, you’re a little more active with your rosy specs chat? ๐Ÿ™„

  • #119563
    Profile photo of GarySFBCN
    GarySFBCN
    Participant

    @logan wrote:

    More offerings from the ‘let’s mislead everyone’ brigade. Just because someone goes to Barcelona does not mean they will buy any property. If that were true the world would be littered with the footprint of second homes.

    The EU commission has warned on 5th May of slower growth in the Eurozone for the next two years and trimmed it’s economic forecasts. Mario Dragi has today hinted at unconventional measures in June this year, probably QE to try and boost the economy. In other words desperate times require desperate measures.

    Yet the sage of Madrid, tapas and beer, Mr Marcos believes otherwise. IBEX booming, housing crisis over and semantic cobblers like ‘it might be a decent time to buy if your circumstances allow’ or as ‘growth continues it will be less of a buyers market’.

    Growth in Spain is anaemic. April 2014 quarter the economy expanded 0.4%. Unemployment around 26% of the working population.

    Have a look as this dismal chart. http://www.tradingeconomics.com/spain/gdp-growth

    Of course there is always hope and it’s encouraging the country has just about emerged from recession. However it’s much too early to believe in any sort of recovery. Spain is well and truly anchored at the bottom of the bubble cycle.

    Interesting chart and site, Logan and I agree with what you wrote.

    Interestingly, it looks like Spain may be in an anemic recovery, especially when compared to Germany:

    http://www.tradingeconomics.com/charts/germany-gdp-growth-annual.png?s=grgdppgy&d1=20070101&d2=20141231&URL2=/spain/gdp-growth&type=line&title=GERMANY%20GDP%20GROWTH%20ANNUAL%20|%20%20SPAIN%20GDP%20GROWTH

  • #119564
    Profile photo of logan
    logan
    Participant

    Interesting chart Gary. Charts save a million words.

    There is no doubt Germany is very concerned about it’s inability to create sustainable growth. The rest of the Eurozone is holding the country back through their debt levels and recent poor numbers from China indicate their exports will likely falter. Also the current conflict in Ukraine with Russia has the potential to hurt Germany substantially.

    What really needs to happen is the Euro down to about โ‚ฌ1.22 versus the US dollar. Until that happens the Eurozone will continue in my view to struggle to find substantive growth. A lack of understanding of these issues makes positive posts by others on here so silly.

    Mario Dragi understands what needs to be done but the obsession of Germany for a strong currency above all else restricts his room for real and meaningful action.

  • #119565
    Profile photo of DBMarcos99
    DBMarcos99
    Participant

    @dbmarcos99 wrote:

    @katy wrote:
    **venom**personal attack*** venom etc etc

    Merkit the one you have been quoting over the internet all day isn’t in Spain but that’s allright then ๐Ÿ™„

    **more personal rantings****

    I’ve quoted the international research body Markit, as you’ve been known to rubbish reports from within Spain. But plenty of those too for example BBVA has changed its growth forecast from 1.1% to 1.9%, and they are not alone. Ratings agencies, the IMF, the EU, various banks etc are all noticing the growth starting to take off in Spain.
    Deny it all you like. Tide has turned. ๐Ÿ˜†
    Even that arch-doomster Edward Hugh has started making statements like this:
    “Spain data hard to read right now. Surprisingly strong composite PMI in April. Best in 7 yrs.”

    Still, if Logan & co WANT to believe it’s all going badly, no need for them to believe all the analyst reports and figures. ๐Ÿ˜†

  • #119566
    Profile photo of angie
    angie
    Spectator

    How’s it going in Madrid property market, seems a flourishing black market for rentals? ๐Ÿ˜†

    http://www.theguardian.com/society/2014/feb/23/spain-property-black-market-housing-madrid

    Know you like links, eh? :mrgreen:

  • #119567
    Profile photo of DBMarcos99
    DBMarcos99
    Participant

    Plenty of people buying up property in Madrid centre so they can rent out eg via Airbnb and the likes (I know people who do this – I somehow doubt they’re declaring it though ๐Ÿ˜‰ )

    https://www.airbnb.com/s/Madrid–Spain

    Same in Barcelona I understand, even though the local government is trying to clamp down.

    Lamenting the rise in tourist rental flats from 2,349 in 2010 to 7,854 this year, Janet Sanz, a left-wing town councillor, blamed it on the current city hall administration whilst pointing out that cities like New York have banned tourist rentals because of the problems they create for local residents.

    http://www.spanishpropertyinsight.com/2014/05/04/barcelona-restrict-tourist-lettings/?utm_content=buffer50f1a&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

  • #119568
    Profile photo of katy
    katy
    Spectator

    I am getting worried about you Marcus, you are repeating yourself and chanting your mantra ๐Ÿ˜ฏ

    Does it really make much difference to an expat as long as the business is doing well.

  • #119569
    Profile photo of DBMarcos99
    DBMarcos99
    Participant

    @katy wrote:

    I am getting worried about you Marcus, you are repeating yourself and chanting your mantra ๐Ÿ˜ฏ

    Does it really make much difference to an expat as long as the business is doing well.

    Still making it personal I see!!!

    Remember this thread is about where we are in the cycle. Not about my business, and by the way, I see you were spreading slanders up above (I ‘ve currently got no plans to launch a franchise, and have never said so).

You must be logged in to reply to this topic.