What Will Spain’s Future Property Market Look Like?

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This topic contains 38 replies, has 12 voices, and was last updated by Profile photo of peterhun peterhun 4 years, 3 months ago.

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  • #56998
    Profile photo of angie
    angie
    Spectator

    If and when Spain’s property market picks up to any extent, what will it look like compared to the overheated market of recent years?

    In it’s hey day, it seemed like anyone and everyone was buying, (a) to follow the dream of a new life in the sun, (b) to invest in a ‘booming’ market lured by flipping or rental returns, (c) as a 2nd home or holiday home.

    We all now know this was a load of hype and a largely unregulated property market, fuelled by greed, scams, and all the rest.

    I don’t think even with much lower prices that we will ever see the like of it again, mainly because people have their eyes opened wider now, plus they can’t raise the money so easily anymore, and they don’t want the hassle of overseas ownership.

    If prices dropped to near nothing, I doubt I would buy for any future uplift, I’d still be concerned as to it’s build quality and costs of ownership, possible vandalism or robbery, exchange rate fluctuations, increasing costs of going to and fro.

    So I think those agents who survive and get a good name should concentrate on quality rather than quantity and maybe a niche market will be the way forward for Spain.

    Spain itself should thoroughly regulate this market too, and ensure no illegal builds get sold, the Gov’t should somehow financially guarantee the status of each property sold, meaning only legal properties would be sold in future.

    This is as yet only my opinion and no doubt some will wish to pull this apart, but how do you see the market in future? 🙄

  • #111536
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    Some say that there will only be a recovery when the pool of 1.6 million vacant unsold properties have been bought up but at current buying rates it will take at least seven years before all the supply of unsold properties have been bought up. The property boom started in 1996 and ended in 2007 which makes it eleven years. The boom went bust in 2007 and it will take eleven years from 2007 in order to unwind the boom and return the housing market back to normal which means that by the year 2018, which is six years away, you can expect to see the bottom in house prices to have been reached, or maybe even sooner when the inevitable happens and Spain drops out of the Euro which is expected to take place sometime in the next three to four years.

    An alternative way of looking at it is that because house prices rose by 300% during the boom then the bottom won’t be reached until these gains have been reversed completely which means that house prices will have to fall by 75% from peak to trough to return property prices back to what they were before the start of the boom which means that only until there has been a 75% fall in house prices will the bottom in house prices have been reached. So far house prices in general have fallen by 50% but it will require a further 50% reduction in prices before we get an overall reduction of 75% from peak to trough which will just about bring prices back to sensible levels but whenever there is a crash the market undershoots its long term equilibrium in the short term before recovering and so you can expect to see falls of as much as 95% in house prices when Spain drops out of the Euro.

  • #111538
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    Whilst, I agree with Angie’s posting. However I would like to sugguest that even if the Propertyy sector is regulated it will not resolve the issues. The reason is that there are no audits, no suprvision or enforcements.

    On paper Spain has all the legislations and as we all know that they dont get enforced !!!!

  • #111540
    Profile photo of DBMarcos99
    DBMarcos99
    Participant

    I remember the slump of the early 90s. Unemployment was just as high, tourism was heading down – at the time I heard many Brits claiming Spanish tourism was toast, they’d priced themselves out of the market etc etc. Yet things turned around in the second half of the decade..
    Spain still holds a great appeal to tourists and people wanting a home under the sun and near the Med sea – you can see from the press article I linked to on the Press Articles thread that now Russians are coming in greater numbers.
    Will people learn from the past property slump? Sadly I think people will make the same mistakes. Unless credit is more tightly controlled there will be another bubble in the future. Don’t get me wrong we have some time to go before the current situation is resolved. But even now I see people on different forums deciding to move to or retire to Spain. The appeal seems to be ever-lasting. Unless something drastic like a European war breaks out, there will always be people wanting to “live the dream” and move to Spain, even if the reality is different to their dream.

  • #111541
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    @dbmarcos99 wrote:

    I remember the slump of the early 90s. Unemployment was just as high, tourism was heading down – at the time I heard many Brits claiming Spanish tourism was toast, they’d priced themselves out of the market etc etc. Yet things turned around in the second half of the decade..
    Spain still holds a great appeal to tourists and people wanting a home under the sun and near the Med sea – you can see from the press article I linked to on the Press Articles thread that now Russians are coming in greater numbers.
    Will people learn from the past property slump? Sadly I think people will make the same mistakes. Unless credit is more tightly controlled there will be another bubble in the future. Don’t get me wrong we have some time to go before the current situation is resolved. But even now I see people on different forums deciding to move to or retire to Spain. The appeal seems to be ever-lasting. Unless something drastic like a European war breaks out, there will always be people wanting to “live the dream” and move to Spain, even if the reality is different to their dream.

    Unlike in the early 1990’s there is nowadays alot of places that people can buy holiday homes in apart from just Spain like Turkey and even Bulgaria and Romania and so Spain is facing alot of competition. However, the current crisis or recession or depression, whatever you want to call it, is many many times worse that the modest recession that occurred back in the early 1990’s. This time Spain has entered a full blown depression and given that the recent housing boom was so large then a massive recession can be the only outcome which will mean that Spain is facing a lost decade in which property prices will be continually falling over the next ten years or so. Don’t expect another boom in property prices to occur for at least twenty years.

  • #111543
    Profile photo of DBMarcos99
    DBMarcos99
    Participant

    @jakesuper wrote:

    @dbmarcos99 wrote:
    I remember the slump of the early 90s. Unemployment was just as high, tourism was heading down – at the time I heard many Brits claiming Spanish tourism was toast, they’d priced themselves out of the market etc etc. Yet things turned around in the second half of the decade..
    Spain still holds a great appeal to tourists and people wanting a home under the sun and near the Med sea – you can see from the press article I linked to on the Press Articles thread that now Russians are coming in greater numbers.
    Will people learn from the past property slump? Sadly I think people will make the same mistakes. Unless credit is more tightly controlled there will be another bubble in the future. Don’t get me wrong we have some time to go before the current situation is resolved. But even now I see people on different forums deciding to move to or retire to Spain. The appeal seems to be ever-lasting. Unless something drastic like a European war breaks out, there will always be people wanting to “live the dream” and move to Spain, even if the reality is different to their dream.

    Unlike in the early 1990’s there is nowadays alot of places that people can buy holiday homes in apart from just Spain like Turkey and even Bulgaria and Romania and so Spain is facing alot of competition. However, the current crisis or recession or depression, whatever you want to call it, is many many times worse that the modest recession that occurred back in the early 1990’s. This time Spain has entered a full blown depression and given that the recent housing boom was so large then a massive recession can be the only outcome which will mean that Spain is facing a lost decade in which property prices will be continually falling over the next ten years or so. Don’t expect another boom in property prices to occur for at least twenty years.

    The real difference is that tourism has held up (it really slumped in the mid 90s) and Spain is now building up tourist numbers from places like Russia. Plus, it seems from other talkboards there is still a pent-up desire from many Brits to move to Spain (perhaps to retire). In a sense this is not good news as it distorts the economy, but I don’t see it changing. Plus, living costs in Spain are still way cheaper than the UK. For instance it costs 10k a year to rent a one bedroom flat in south east England – you can now buy 2 bedroom flats in Valencia for 25k.

  • #111546
    Profile photo of katy
    katy
    Spectator

    Rental costs are lower in Spain but not much use if you can’t get a job. If you are unemployed in the UK the rent is paid.

    I don’t think the desire that fed the last property boom will return for more than a decade, if ever. It is totally different from the last slump. It was like the south sea bubble, tulip bubble etc.

    Of course there will be some buyers, mainly pensioners with decent pensions. Similar to how it was in the 80’s. All that Russian stuff is a myth, the sources are always estate agents. Everywhere in the Med is full of Russians right now including Turkey and Greece!

    BTW Property sales in Spain were down again last month by 11.4%

  • #111547
    Profile photo of DBMarcos99
    DBMarcos99
    Participant

    According to this site, interest is increasing again from Germans!

    http://www.spanishpropertyinsight.com/buff/2012/08/14/the-futures-bright-as-spain-attracts-british-retirees-and-german-second-home-buyers/

    “Germans have a long history of buying Spanish property. At one stage there was a dip but now this trend is reversing as Germans begin to invest in the nation once again especially on Mallorca. We’ve actually seen a 28.6% increase in sales from German buyers between January and July this year over the same period in 2011!”

    And there is firm evidence that the numbers of Russians visiting Spain are increasing (mainly Catalunya):

    Their preferred destinations are the Costa Brava and Costa Dorada in Catalonia. About 70% of Russian tourists who go to Spain visit the north-east region, with Barcelona the must-see destination. About 750,000 are expected to visit Catalonia this year, 40% more than 2011, spending around €1.5bn (£1.2bn). These are not the oligarchs who were buying up mansions along the costa 10 years ago, but the new Russian middle class getting their first taste of foreign travel.

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/aug/14/russians-middle-class-spain-tourism?CMP=twt_gu

    I must admit I’m surprised myself as to why the Russians prefer Catalunya – maybe it’s the proximity of Barcelona?

  • #111549
    Profile photo of katy
    katy
    Spectator

    As I said above

    All that Russian stuff is a myth, the sources are always estate agents. Everywhere in the Med is full of Russians right now including Turkey and Greece!

    The Russians are coming stories have been around for 5+ years. Almost as long as the Disney stories. Of course some have bought but hardly enough to make a dent. Our golf club was 50% German members. The majority have sold or are trying to.

  • #111550
    Profile photo of DBMarcos99
    DBMarcos99
    Participant

    @katy wrote:

    As I said above

    All that Russian stuff is a myth, the sources are always estate agents. Everywhere in the Med is full of Russians right now including Turkey and Greece!

    Not according to that report in the UK newspaper the Guardian.

    The biggest concentration of Russians is along the Costa Dorada at Tarragona, where they are occupying 40% of hotel beds this summer, twice as many as the British. “The rise in the number of Russian tourists has compensated for the decline in Spanish ones,” Maria Eugenia Arbó, president of the local hotel association, told the Spanish newspaper La Vanguardia.

    Now you could argue that it’s info from a biased source (what isn’t?) but the hotel association is not an estate agent.

  • #111551
    Profile photo of angie
    angie
    Spectator

    I posted the topic because I really cannot believe we will ever again see a similar kind of boom that Spain experienced, it’s gone for good. There is no way that the same amount of mass buying will occur again for what were often not well built huge urbanisations that somehow Brits and others were seduced in to buying with much regret now. I would bet money that those times will never come back in those numbers, boom to bust in a decade!

    There are plenty of other choices too, maybe not so hot in Summer nor so mild in Winter, but more stable markets like Italy and the South of France, and, not so spoilt in view and less tacky generally.

    However, there will be areas in Spain where quality overrides quantity and that being mainly because of a better climate, but an awful lot of properties need to be bulldozed or shifted from the market first 🙄

    I would hate to see a return too, of large agents opening chains of offices all over the place as before, that’s a return to quantity and not quality 🙁

  • #111552
    Profile photo of GJ
    GJ
    Participant

    Angie wrote

    I would hate to see a return too, of large agents opening chains of offices all over the place as before, that’s a return to quantity and not quality

    http://www.vivaestates.com/blog/2012/06/24/viva-opens-a-new-branch-office-in-elviria-marbella%E2%80%A6-pushing-up-green-shoots/

    This office looks like its the old location of the ADH office in Elviria.

  • #111553
    Profile photo of Chopera
    Chopera
    Participant

    If Spain keeps the euro then I expect to see nominal property prices fall for a few years yet and then the market will stabilise and just bob along. Which is no bad thing. Without overall control of the money supply the Spanish government will not be able to manipulate the market according to its wishes (or the wishes of the various lobbies that try to bribe it). That’s not to say there won’t be money to be made (or lost) by investing in property, but as Angie says, it will have to be made by backing the right horse rather than any old horse.

    Shakeel makes a good point about regulation – governments can make as many rules as they like, but getting people to stick to them is another matter. I’m hoping that without government interference the market might be able to regulate itself a bit better, e.g. constructors will be forced into building houses that people actually want to buy, but maybe I’m being too optimistic.

    If Spain leaves the euro then I’m afraid we’ll see Spain attempt go back to its bad old ways. We probably won’t see a boom like the last one, but certainly attempts will be made to drive up nominal property prices.

  • #111555
    Profile photo of katy
    katy
    Spectator

    @dbmarcos99 wrote:

    @katy wrote:
    As I said above

    All that Russian stuff is a myth, the sources are always estate agents. Everywhere in the Med is full of Russians right now including Turkey and Greece!

    Not according to that report in the UK newspaper the Guardian.

    The biggest concentration of Russians is along the Costa Dorada at Tarragona, where they are occupying 40% of hotel beds this summer, twice as many as the British. “The rise in the number of Russian tourists has compensated for the decline in Spanish ones,” Maria Eugenia Arbó, president of the local hotel association, told the Spanish newspaper La Vanguardia.

    Now you could argue that it’s info from a biased source (what isn’t?) but the hotel association is not an estate agent.

    I did read the article 🙄 I don’t dispute the tourist figures. I was refering to the Russians supposed to be buying property.

    Here, too, they are buying property, either as second residences or to rent out to fellow Russians. “We mostly sell to families who have come here for their holidays,” said Grigory Bekishev, a Russian who set up an estate agency in Salou on the Costa Dorada. “They are mostly second homes. Some are luxurious, some are normal flats. But they have to be new. They won’t buy anything old.”

    “They usually buy flats for around €220,000 to €300,000 with a view of the sea,” Manuel Gonzálvez, another Salou estate agent. “It’s a new market and a very interesting one as far as we can tell.”

  • #111557
    Profile photo of DBMarcos99
    DBMarcos99
    Participant

    Like you, I don’t live in Catalunya, but I’m inclined to believe the quote from Aksana below – he/she would have no motive in distorting things in talking to a UK newspaper:

    Aksana Niamkovich, the editor of Tot en Rus, a Russian-language monthly with a circulation of 10,000 in Catalonia, said this is a new phenomenon. “This is the Russian middle class who have chosen Catalonia as either their first or second residence,” she said. “There are 2,000 Russians (including people from the former Soviet republics) registered as residents in Barcelona and 4,000 in the Costa Brava resort of Lloret de Mar. They are attracted by the climate and the fact that Barcelona is nearby and by the sea. Barcelona is also very cosmopolitan and Russians are very interested in the culture of poetry and painting here. It also cheaper to emigrate here than to England, France or Germany and easier to adapt. They could go to Italy but it’s too chaotic.”

    Not sure why you’re so keen to deny this is happening. If tourist figures go up, then you will find the numbers trying to settle there will go up too.
    I admit it’s hard to work out how they get the residency permission – I’m still bemused at how many Chinese seem to get in. I suppose money talks.

  • #111558
    Profile photo of GarySFBCN
    GarySFBCN
    Participant

    Some say that there will only be a recovery when the pool of 1.6 million vacant unsold properties have been bought up but at current buying rates it will take at least seven years before all the supply of unsold properties have been bought up.

    The ‘recovery’ will have nothing to do with the pool of vacant unsold properties. The recovery will happen when the overall economies improve. I the San Francisco bay area, the number of vacant unsold properties did not drop, but as the economy is exploding off the charts, there are again multiple offers on houses and apartments for sale.

    There are 2,000 Russians (including people from the former Soviet republics) registered as residents in Barcelona and 4,000 in the Costa Brava resort of Lloret de Mar.

    I’ve seen a few shops that focus on Russian expats open in Barcelona. I thought they existed to funnel criminal money because they’ve been there for months and I’ve yet to see one customer enter the stores.

  • #111559
    Profile photo of DBMarcos99
    DBMarcos99
    Participant

    @garysfbcn wrote:

    I’ve seen a few shops that focus on Russian expats open in Barcelona. I thought they existed to funnel criminal money because they’ve been there for months and I’ve yet to see one customer enter the stores.

    That’s interesting – there was an article a few weeks back stating the number of bin Ladens (500 Euro notes) had started to rise again in Spain. Possible also that the shop-owners have seen the projected rise in Russian visitors, and want to take advantage… Always very risky to cater to migrant groups though. I’ve seen a lot of Polish shops open up in the UK – sometimes they seem to do quite well, but others have miscalculated and closed.

  • #111563
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    @dbmarcos99 wrote:

    @jakesuper wrote:
    @dbmarcos99 wrote:
    I remember the slump of the early 90s. Unemployment was just as high, tourism was heading down – at the time I heard many Brits claiming Spanish tourism was toast, they’d priced themselves out of the market etc etc. Yet things turned around in the second half of the decade..
    Spain still holds a great appeal to tourists and people wanting a home under the sun and near the Med sea – you can see from the press article I linked to on the Press Articles thread that now Russians are coming in greater numbers.
    Will people learn from the past property slump? Sadly I think people will make the same mistakes. Unless credit is more tightly controlled there will be another bubble in the future. Don’t get me wrong we have some time to go before the current situation is resolved. But even now I see people on different forums deciding to move to or retire to Spain. The appeal seems to be ever-lasting. Unless something drastic like a European war breaks out, there will always be people wanting to “live the dream” and move to Spain, even if the reality is different to their dream.

    Unlike in the early 1990’s there is nowadays alot of places that people can buy holiday homes in apart from just Spain like Turkey and even Bulgaria and Romania and so Spain is facing alot of competition. However, the current crisis or recession or depression, whatever you want to call it, is many many times worse that the modest recession that occurred back in the early 1990’s. This time Spain has entered a full blown depression and given that the recent housing boom was so large then a massive recession can be the only outcome which will mean that Spain is facing a lost decade in which property prices will be continually falling over the next ten years or so. Don’t expect another boom in property prices to occur for at least twenty years.

    The real difference is that tourism has held up (it really slumped in the mid 90s) and Spain is now building up tourist numbers from places like Russia. Plus, it seems from other talkboards there is still a pent-up desire from many Brits to move to Spain (perhaps to retire). In a sense this is not good news as it distorts the economy, but I don’t see it changing. Plus, living costs in Spain are still way cheaper than the UK. For instance it costs 10k a year to rent a one bedroom flat in south east England – you can now buy 2 bedroom flats in Valencia for 25k.

    You cannot compare the price of renting in Spain to South East England at 10k for a one bed flat, as in other parts of the UK a flat can be had for less than half that amount.

  • #111564
    Profile photo of DBMarcos99
    DBMarcos99
    Participant

    You cannot compare the price of renting in Spain to South East England at 10k for a one bed flat, as in other parts of the UK a flat can be had for less than half that amount.

    Well I can, because as an internet worker, if I moved from where I am now to various parts of Spain, including Valencia or Granada (not Madrid or Barcelona I admit) then the accommodation costs would be a lot cheaper.

    Even places like Grimsby or Bradford are still probably more expensive when you compare the price of buying a flat or house. I’ve not totally written off moving up north (the people are warm even if the climate isn’t). But staying where I am is going to be pouring a lot of money down the drain. At least if I’ve bought a place i won’t be forking out 50k every 5 years in rent.

  • #111569
    Profile photo of peterhun
    peterhun
    Participant

    @dbmarcos99 wrote:

    I must admit I’m surprised myself as to why the Russians prefer Catalunya – maybe it’s the proximity of Barcelona?

    Culture, shopping I think. If they want sun and cheapness they can always goto the Black Sea with its familiar food and language.

    Not sure why you’re so keen to deny this is happening.

    She has a VI, she hates agents.

  • #111572
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    @dbmarcos99 wrote:

    You cannot compare the price of renting in Spain to South East England at 10k for a one bed flat, as in other parts of the UK a flat can be had for less than half that amount.

    Well I can, because as an internet worker, if I moved from where I am now to various parts of Spain, including Valencia or Granada (not Madrid or Barcelona I admit) then the accommodation costs would be a lot cheaper.

    Even places like Grimsby or Bradford are still probably more expensive when you compare the price of buying a flat or house. I’ve not totally written off moving up north (the people are warm even if the climate isn’t). But staying where I am is going to be pouring a lot of money down the drain. At least if I’ve bought a place i won’t be forking out 50k every 5 years in rent.

    as the owner of a 1 bed flat in the south east of england (dartford kent and its on the better side with parking) i wished i could get 10k a year in rent.I get just over 7k before costs,i think your being to general in your area maybe in se london 10k is the norm but as you come out it drops something to do with rail travel costs maybe because it can’t be because its in a nicer area.Not that Dartford is a lovely area but its better than lee, lewisham deptford etc

  • #111574
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    @dbmarcos99 wrote:

    I remember the slump of the early 90s. Unemployment was just as high, tourism was heading down – at the time I heard many Brits claiming Spanish tourism was toast, they’d priced themselves out of the market etc etc. Yet things turned around in the second half of the decade..
    Spain still holds a great appeal to tourists and people wanting a home under the sun and near the Med sea – you can see from the press article I linked to on the Press Articles thread that now Russians are coming in greater numbers.
    Will people learn from the past property slump? Sadly I think people will make the same mistakes. Unless credit is more tightly controlled there will be another bubble in the future. Don’t get me wrong we have some time to go before the current situation is resolved. But even now I see people on different forums deciding to move to or retire to Spain. The appeal seems to be ever-lasting. Unless something drastic like a European war breaks out, there will always be people wanting to “live the dream” and move to Spain, even if the reality is different to their dream.

    Just wait until the UK property market crashes which will take place in the year 2015 when inflation starts to go through the roof as a direct consequence of all the inflationary effects of the housing boom and quantitative easing (money printing) by the Bank of England. The rise in inflation will cause the Bank of England to raise interest rates dramatically to control inflation and the Government will be forced to contract the economy bringing about a devastating recession. This together with Spain dropping out of the Euro by 2015 will mean that people owning properties in both Britain and Spain will experience the double whammy of collapsing house prices both in the UK and Spain. The collapsing UK economy and crash in UK house prices will cause the British demand for holiday homes in Spain to drop sharply resulting in even further falls in Spanish house prices.

  • #111575
    Profile photo of Igurisu
    Igurisu
    Participant

    Jake, you seem very sure of the way things are going to go. If I had your foresight I would be a multi billionaire by now 🙂 I have no idea why you need/want to buy a property at such low values, you must have made a fortune on the markets.

  • #111576
    Profile photo of katy
    katy
    Spectator

    He sounds like a loser who owns nothing and is full of sour grapes :mrgreen:

    Would be interesting to hear the views of some who do own property in Spain as to wether they would sell so low. The ones I know certainly wouldn’t, they are prepared to sit it out. Some friends bought a holiday apartment decades ago for £25,000. About 3 years ago they put it on the market for 225,000€, it is now reduced to 175,000…it’s nice but they won’t get that but they are content to get a few holiday rentals and forget about it. Their only reason for selling is that they are fed up with Spain.

  • #111577
    Profile photo of angie
    angie
    Spectator

    GJ well done for spotting the old ADH office has just been taken over by Viva, I had already noticed that when they emailed me and wondered who would know that? We went into that office when ADH were trying to push property on to us years ago.

    I still hope we won’t see a return to multiple offices, big property magazines, loads of hype etc. IMO small is good with agents 😛

  • #111578
    Profile photo of katy
    katy
    Spectator

    I remember it well too, used to pass it regularly.

  • #111579
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    @katy wrote:

    He sounds like a loser who owns nothing and is full of sour grapes :mrgreen:

    Would be interesting to hear the views of some who do own property in Spain as to wether they would sell so low. The ones I know certainly wouldn’t, they are prepared to sit it out. Some friends bought a holiday apartment decades ago for £25,000. About 3 years ago they put it on the market for 225,000€, it is now reduced to 175,000…it’s nice but they won’t get that but they are content to get a few holiday rentals and forget about it. Their only reason for selling is that they are fed up with Spain.

    I would imagine that the holiday property that was reduced in price to 175,000€ is really only actually worth 70,000€ – 80,000€, probably will be worth just 50,000€ in three years time.

  • #111580
    Profile photo of DBMarcos99
    DBMarcos99
    Participant

    @igurisu wrote:

    Jake, you seem very sure of the way things are going to go. If I had your foresight I would be a multi billionaire by now 🙂 I have no idea why you need/want to buy a property at such low values, you must have made a fortune on the markets.

    Well it’s true that many market analysts find it difficult to predict what’s happening in 6 months time, still less 2 years.

    But you have to hand it to Jake – he’s got a very clear picture of what the situation will be in 2015, not just in Spain, but in the UK and France too.
    I’d like to see him contribute to http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ where they discuss housing markets not just in the UK, but in Spain, Ireland, France etc. They often have a number of well-informed pundits, who would no doubt benefit from Jake’s foresight.

  • #111581
    Profile photo of angie
    angie
    Spectator

    Currently, we know quite a few Brits who live in Spain and a few with 2nd homes who are reluctant to reduce their property prices so are resigned to it and adapting to living in Spain long term despite wishing to sell up. Several who own 2nd homes bought in the boom, and in one instance a couple have had their apartment on Alhaurin Golf for sale for over 7 years and have finally woken up and reduced it by 100k, but now they are chasing a falling market and can’t catch it. They paid 285k for a 2 bed apt., now reduced to 185k, but I think they’d be lucky to get 130-140k for it. Sometimes it’s better to move on 🙄

  • #111582
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    @dbmarcos99 wrote:

    @igurisu wrote:
    Jake, you seem very sure of the way things are going to go. If I had your foresight I would be a multi billionaire by now 🙂 I have no idea why you need/want to buy a property at such low values, you must have made a fortune on the markets.

    Well it’s true that many market analysts find it difficult to predict what’s happening in 6 months time, still less 2 years.

    But you have to hand it to Jake – he’s got a very clear picture of what the situation will be in 2015, not just in Spain, but in the UK and France too.
    I’d like to see him contribute to http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ where they discuss housing markets not just in the UK, but in Spain, Ireland, France etc. They often have a number of well-informed pundits, who would no doubt benefit from Jake’s foresight.

    That website is for the people who sold their properties in the UK in the hope of a quick crash occurring so that they could then get back onto the property ladder. As such that forum is biased as it deliberately tries to talk down the UK housing market. The moderators on that forum are worse than the Stasi secret East German police in that contributors to the forum get banned and their comments deleted if they say anything that goes against the moderators own biased views. That forum died years ago when the STR’s gave up on a property crash occurring in the UK. No one has made a useful contribution on the state of the overseas property market on that forum for ages partly because the website is total tosh.

  • #111583
    Profile photo of DBMarcos99
    DBMarcos99
    Participant

    @jakesuper wrote:

    @dbmarcos99 wrote:
    @igurisu wrote:
    Jake, you seem very sure of the way things are going to go. If I had your foresight I would be a multi billionaire by now 🙂 I have no idea why you need/want to buy a property at such low values, you must have made a fortune on the markets.

    Well it’s true that many market analysts find it difficult to predict what’s happening in 6 months time, still less 2 years.

    But you have to hand it to Jake – he’s got a very clear picture of what the situation will be in 2015, not just in Spain, but in the UK and France too.
    I’d like to see him contribute to http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ where they discuss housing markets not just in the UK, but in Spain, Ireland, France etc. They often have a number of well-informed pundits, who would no doubt benefit from Jake’s foresight.

    That website is for the STR’s who sold their properties in the hope of a quick crash occurring so that they could then get back onto the property ladder. As such that forum is biased as it deliberately tries to talk down the UK housing market. The moderators on that forum are worse than the Stasi secret East German police in that contributors to the forum get banned and their comments deleted if they say anything that goes against the moderators own biased views. That forum died years ago when the STR’s gave up on a property crash occurring in the UK. No one has made a useful contribution on the state of the overseas property market on that forum for ages partly because the website is total tosh.

    Have you been banned from there?

  • #111584
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    @dbmarcos99 wrote:

    @jakesuper wrote:
    That website is for the STR’s who sold their properties in the hope of a quick crash occurring so that they could then get back onto the property ladder. As such that forum is biased as it deliberately tries to talk down the UK housing market. The moderators on that forum are worse than the Stasi secret East German police in that contributors to the forum get banned and their comments deleted if they say anything that goes against the moderators own biased views. That forum died years ago when the STR’s gave up on a property crash occurring in the UK. No one has made a useful contribution on the state of the overseas property market on that forum for ages partly because the website is total tosh.

    Have you been banned from there?

    I have been banned on that forum numerous times and I have also been banned on the britishexpats forum several times as well. 😉

  • #111590
    Profile photo of Chopera
    Chopera
    Participant

    @jakesuper wrote:

    @dbmarcos99 wrote:
    @igurisu wrote:
    Jake, you seem very sure of the way things are going to go. If I had your foresight I would be a multi billionaire by now 🙂 I have no idea why you need/want to buy a property at such low values, you must have made a fortune on the markets.

    Well it’s true that many market analysts find it difficult to predict what’s happening in 6 months time, still less 2 years.

    But you have to hand it to Jake – he’s got a very clear picture of what the situation will be in 2015, not just in Spain, but in the UK and France too.
    I’d like to see him contribute to http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ where they discuss housing markets not just in the UK, but in Spain, Ireland, France etc. They often have a number of well-informed pundits, who would no doubt benefit from Jake’s foresight.

    That website is for the people who sold their properties in the UK in the hope of a quick crash occurring so that they could then get back onto the property ladder. As such that forum is biased as it deliberately tries to talk down the UK housing market. The moderators on that forum are worse than the Stasi secret East German police in that contributors to the forum get banned and their comments deleted if they say anything that goes against the moderators own biased views. That forum died years ago when the STR’s gave up on a property crash occurring in the UK. No one has made a useful contribution on the state of the overseas property market on that forum for ages partly because the website is total tosh.

    I remember 5 years ago people on that forum making the same predictions that you are making now. It’s a forum for people who generally think the UK housing market is over valued and being talked up by vested interests in the media, and their aim is to counter that (there’s a similar one in Spain: http://www.burbuja.info/inmobiliaria/burbuja-inmobiliaria/). Some of the posters on http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ did sell in the hope of cashing in on a fall in UK house prices, but the majority are people who are priced out of the market (many through no fault of their own).

    I suspect the reason you got banned is because rather than engaging with other posters, you posted lots of new threads in an attempt to give higher priority to your personal point of view.

  • #111593
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    People who own studio flats or one bedroom flats are going to get wiped out because nobody in their right mind will want to buy these kind of properties when they could buy a proper three bedroom house for just 20,000 euros. Even two and three bedroom flats will eventually become practically worthless when there are so many beautiful houses up for sale at knock down prices. Who would want to live in a dingy flat anyway. The only place where two and three bedroom flats will hold their worth in Spain will be in the Canary islands and places like Ibiza and Mallorca (Majorca). There are so many flats for sale now, many of which are dross and horrible, that it makes it certain that most flats that up for sale in Spain are virtually unsellable now.

    In a few years time you will almost certainly be able to buy a beautiful three bedroom house in mainland Spain for the price of a used car!

  • #111594
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    if you can ever buy a flat in barcelona or sitgies for the price of a used car i’ll have 3 unless of course you are talking something exotic like a bugatti

  • #111595
    Profile photo of katy
    katy
    Spectator

    @jakesuper wrote:

    @katy wrote:
    He sounds like a loser who owns nothing and is full of sour grapes :mrgreen:

    Would be interesting to hear the views of some who do own property in Spain as to wether they would sell so low. The ones I know certainly wouldn’t, they are prepared to sit it out. Some friends bought a holiday apartment decades ago for £25,000. About 3 years ago they put it on the market for 225,000€, it is now reduced to 175,000…it’s nice but they won’t get that but they are content to get a few holiday rentals and forget about it. Their only reason for selling is that they are fed up with Spain.

    I would imagine that the holiday property that was reduced in price to 175,000€ is really only actually worth 70,000€ – 80,000€, probably will be worth just 50,000€ in three years time.

    Well not sure, certainly a lot less than they are asking. It is in marbella and prices are holding up better there in good locations. My point was will people bother to sell if they don’t need to.

  • #111596
    Profile photo of Chopera
    Chopera
    Participant

    @jakesuper wrote:

    People who own studio flats or one bedroom flats are going to get wiped out because nobody in their right mind will want to buy these kind of properties when they could buy a proper three bedroom house for just 20,000 euros. Even two and three bedroom flats will eventually become practically worthless when there are so many beautiful houses up for sale at knock down prices. Who would want to live in a dingy flat anyway. The only place where two and three bedroom flats will hold their worth in Spain will be in the Canary islands and places like Ibiza and Mallorca (Majorca). There are so many flats for sale now, many of which are dross and horrible, that it makes it certain that most flats that up for sale in Spain are virtually unsellable now.

    In a few years time you will almost certainly be able to buy a beautiful three bedroom house in mainland Spain for the price of a used car!

    Hmmm, maybe I should invest in used cars then

  • #111613
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    You need to speculate to accumulate, buy low sell high, but many people and particularly the British expats bought into the property bubble and as such have bought high and will find themselves selling low resulting in huge losses, with some incurring losses of 100,000 euros and more. For those people who cannot sell their properties even though their property is on sale at well below the price they paid for it all I can say to these people is every generation has to learn the lessons of greed! Most of the people who bought into the property bubble did so thinking that property prices can only ever go up and made the assumption that the Spanish property market works in the same way as the British property market when this is clearly not the case. The British expats got greedy and were priced out of the British property market and so decided to ramp up property prices in Spain with devastating consequences as the British expats did not foresee that the Spanish will build more and more houses to take advantage of the stupid Brits who were willing to pay absurd prices for property in Spain and this building boom effectively added more properties to the housing market effectively diminishing the value of the houses that were already there and bought by the Brits.

    Eventually Spain will drop out of the Euro and will adopt the Peseta which will lead to a massive devaluation of the Peseta and anybody owning property in Spain will be owning an asset that will be priced in worthless Pesetas. My suggestion to anyone who owns any kind of property in Spain is sell the property now even if this involves taking a massive loss because it is only going to get worse and the value of the property will only drop further in value anyway, so take the hit and get out of property in Spain immediately because house prices are dropping every day.

    People are realising that many properties that were built in Spain during the boom were of shoddy construction and poor build quality using the crappiest materials on Earth and nobody in their right mind will buy these poorly built properties in the future. Many British expats bought shoddily built properties because that was all they could afford only to find that they are now worthless as nobody wants them.

    It is said that the property market exhibits a cycle consisting of seven good years followed by seven bad years, which means seven years of rising prices followed by seven years of falling prices and the cycle repeats itself. The British expats who bought into the boom have enjoyed the party, now they will experience the hangover.

  • #111629
    Profile photo of peterhun
    peterhun
    Participant

    @jakesuper wrote:

    Have you been banned from there?

    I have been banned on that forum numerous times and I have also been banned on the britishexpats forum several times as well. 😉

    HPC is full of nutters, you must be pretty good to get banned numerous times.

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