What effect Hollande will have on Eurozone Woes?

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This topic contains 18 replies, has 10 voices, and was last updated by Profile photo of Anonymous Anonymous 4 years, 7 months ago.

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  • #56817
    Profile photo of angie
    angie
    Spectator

    Assuming Hollande defeats Napoleon Sarkozy in France, what do those on this forum think will happen with the Euro and the Eurozone in general, will things get worse when Hollande cuts that dwarf free from Merkel’s apron strings? Will Germany decide to go it alone and be rid of Club Med reliance on it’s handouts?

    Will Carla get herself a real man 😆 Sorry, couldn’t resist that one 😆

  • #108647
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    Anonymous
    Participant

    He is more anti-EU but the biggest thing is that he will destroy France. Sarkozy should be hung for his deals with Ghaddafi and then he has the balls to “kill” him. Hollande is for sure a better person but his policies will totally destroy France. He will just expand public sector jobs and we all know what that means.

  • #108649
    Profile photo of katy
    katy
    Spectator

    Nothing or no one will stop the eurozone project…it’s a runaway train.

  • #108652
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    Siarkozy should not be hung for his deals with Gaddafi but Gaddafi’s friends may want to deal with him for ratting on their ex leader. Maybe he should just pay Gaddafi’s family back the money ?But Hollande will maybe begin a trend with Captain Bertorelli at the ECB that will mean a big inflation that will end in a catastrophe not just for France . Taking the seemingly easy way out is a problem that ‘democracy’ enables when you need a steady hand like Jean Claud Trichet. Adolph Hitler was enabled by ‘democracy’ – Hollande is not such a maniac but France needs better.

  • #108653
    Profile photo of peterhun
    peterhun
    Participant

    @angie wrote:

    Will Germany decide to go it alone and be rid of Club Med reliance on it’s handouts?

    Germany is the parasite on Europe, it should be kicked out of the Euro so it can be rebalanced at a natural level. Industrial production will leave Germany and go to low cost base countries in the south.

    Failing that, Germany should stop dragging its feet and pay its dues to the Club Med countries.

  • #108654
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    I love French socialists. They are completely mad.

    They don’t seem to understand that you need to create lots of wealth to afford the welfare state they want. They want to stamp out the private sector. Good luck to them. The country will end up bankrupt now that the bond markets have woken up.

    Any Economist subscribers out there I recommend you read the comments on the article about Hollande: http://www.economist.com/node/21553446

    Apparently, lots of hysterical French people subscribe to TE. 😀

    If a French paper criticises an English politician, yawns all round. But if TE criticises a French politician, the French wig out. 😆

    The truth is that Hollande will fall into line when he realises he has to go begging for money. Just look at Rajoy.

  • #108655
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    Its not only the French socialist that are mad. You can say that about the whole nation. No I am not generalising.

    They dont need to create wealth they have been screwing the colonies for centuries and than a few million from Libya just to mention. The man ask for his money they send the thungs under the guise of NATO. This keeps the lazy brain dead Fench on their three hours lunch and also keep the supermarkets close on Monday as they had to work on on Satrday.

  • #108659
    Profile photo of angie
    angie
    Spectator

    I think Mark is right when he says Hollande will be forced to beg for money. Many new parties of any country promise change and then cannot deliver, happened in the UK too. Overnight the UK has gone Socialist again, protest vote maybe, but Cameron needs to re-engage with the populus and quickly.

    I keep hearing though that France is in fact in a far worse position financially than Spain, but I don’t know the detail of this, if someone has this info that would be good to read. On the face of it, it does seem hard to believe but then nothing seems to surprise me anymore 🙄

  • #108660
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    Anonymous
    Participant

    @angie wrote:

    I think Mark is right when he says Hollande will be forced to beg for money. Many new parties of any country promise change and then cannot deliver, happened in the UK too. Overnight the UK has gone Socialist again, protest vote maybe, but Cameron needs to re-engage with the populus and quickly.

    I keep hearing though that France is in fact in a far worse position financially than Spain, but I don’t know the detail of this, if someone has this info that would be good to read. On the face of it, it does seem hard to believe but then nothing seems to surprise me anymore 🙄

    When you hear this it probably because their banking sector i so big and it’s so exposed to many of the PIGS.

  • #108661
    Profile photo of logan
    logan
    Participant

    In understanding Hollande and his politics you have to go further and look at the French populations life philosophy. That has nothing to do with global economics but everything to do with nationalism, community and working class solidarity.

    The French think they are different to everyone else, have higher aims and grubbing in the market place is considered unworthy. That’s why they so dislike Sarkozy. He is seen as possessing only capitalist sympathies and is a ‘mercantiliste’. That’s an insult in France. They want their President to be above such things.

    The French don’t care what the market does. They are disconnected from it in their mind and sole.
    Of course we ‘Anglo Saxons’ think only of our money and possessions and exploiting the poor and oppressed. 🙂

    The result of the Hollande win will be to turn the French back to their comfort zone. He will be enormously popular as he implements socialist policies. A warrior like Joan of Ark fighting the wicked capitalist hordes.

    The fact that France will potentially end up like Greece will escape them as they enjoy the 35 hour week, retirement on final salary state pensions at 60, generous welfare for life without the need to work, free university education for all. Hollande has even promised to freeze petrol prices and provide subsidies to state owned oil companies. I kid you not. 😯 The French government even provides an annual holiday by the sea for everyone with a low income.

    Who’s going to pay for it all?. The rich will be taxed at 75% and middle class 45%. They are, as I write booking their passages for Britain and the Cayman Islands.

    Hollande will, if he keeps his promises come into direct conflict very soon with the EU, Merkle and the German ethos of thrift and austerity. He has promised to re-negotiate the fiscal treaty and not restrict France to a budget deficit of 4%.

    To put it mildly Hollande will be a disaster for France, if I did not love the country so much I would be packing my bags.

  • #108662
    Profile photo of logan
    logan
    Participant

    France in 2011 – 81.2% debt to GDP and a 5.2% budget deficit.

    Spain in 2011 – 68.5% debt to GDP and an 8.5 budget deficit.

  • #108665
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    @logan wrote:

    France in 2011 – 81.2% debt to GDP and a 5.2% budget deficit.

    Spain in 2011 – 68.5% debt to GDP and an 8.5 budget deficit.

    Logan you seem very knowlegeable about France. Do they have lots of hidden debt in certain regions etc?

  • #108667
    Profile photo of logan
    logan
    Participant

    Generally speaking French society is fairly open and transparent with a good rule of law and accountability. It’s very systematic with norms and rules of behaviour and accountability in public life. Public corruption is low, their elected officials are fairly decent. I would say there is little hidden debt especially in the banking system.
    It’s completely unlike Spain.

    That said public debt is very high, especially in small regional councils.

  • #108672
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    Anonymous
    Participant

    Mark, thanks for the pointer to the Hollande comments. I usually read TE on iPad so don’t see them. I think some of the extremity may have come from French readers writing in a foreign language and getting the vernacular wrong – I found a few comments in French which seemed more balanced. However, that doesn’t explain the economic illiteracy. Several of them described the great plan to employ lots more teachers as Keynsian – I don’t think so. As I recall Keynes was in favour of public works creating infrastructure for wealth generation – not more non-productive expenditure. Still with more teachers they could raise the school leaving age to 25, lower the retirement age to, say 45 and spend the bit in between at college.

  • #108674
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    @Costacraver wrote:

    Mark, thanks for the pointer to the Hollande comments. I usually read TE on iPad so don’t see them. I think some of the extremity may have come from French readers writing in a foreign language and getting the vernacular wrong – I found a few comments in French which seemed more balanced. However, that doesn’t explain the economic illiteracy. Several of them described the great plan to employ lots more teachers as Keynsian – I don’t think so. As I recall Keynes was in favour of public works creating infrastructure for wealth generation – not more non-productive expenditure. Still with more teachers they could raise the school leaving age to 25, lower the retirement age to, say 45 and spend the bit in between at college.

    There are different schools of thought in Keynesianism but generally you can say that they are all for the government interfering with the markets and controlling economic growth. If there is a recession the goverment should spend more money and make sure you get out of the recession. What you should spend the money on varies a little bit but most keynesianists think the best way is to spend the money on infrastructure… the more socialistic keynesianist doesn’t stop anywhere close to this but basicly says that it doesn’t matter what sort of stuff you spend the money on because it will trickle down to the populous in one form of the other. This is why keynesianism became so popular because it basicly gave the politicos the power to do whatever they want… not dependant on wether they where left winger or right wingers. This is what’s so dangerous about this whole school… it gives the politicians the control over the monetary policies and an endless money supply for their stupid projects. Another frightening thing is they often come across as free market economists which they most deffinately are not. They only like it in the micro sense not in the macro.

    Two examples of both an ok one and a bad one.

    Milton Friedman is a great example of a quite brilliant mind that in his later days actually questionioned many of his keynesian leanings. Never got as far as to refute them totally though. The older he got the more he leant towards the “austrian economics” way of thoughts. He many times questioned goverment interventions and reading his books you will find many many interesting tid bits.

    Krugman is a much more dangerous keynesian because he actually thinks that it’s his and his “friends” duties to take money from the normal people and do stuff with it. People in his mind are to stupid to make their own decisions.

  • #108675
    Profile photo of logan
    logan
    Participant

    Freidrich Hayek of the Austrian economic school was also critical of Keynes and claimed that what starts as temporary governmental fixes usually become permanent and expanding government programs, which stifle the private sector and civil society.

    Keynes theories advocate centralised government planning. That appeals to all socialists of Hollande’s colour and the European Commission is designed exactly the same way. All that does in the end is lead to economic disaster.

    In France it will make a bad situation much, much worse.

  • #108690
    Profile photo of peterhun
    peterhun
    Participant

    It looks like the EU will bend the way of France, they are already talking about relaxing the restrictions.

  • #108693
    Profile photo of Chopera
    Chopera
    Participant

    It’s a pity Keynes died before we could find out his thoughts on where increased spending should take place. His demands for increased government spending occured before the great experiments in nationalisation, and I’m not aware of him ever advocating nationalisation in the first place. So we can assume that he promoted increased spending on infrastructure which doesn’t sound like a bad idea during a recession. Also it should be rememebered that most western economies have “Keynesianism” built in through unemployment benefit: when there is a downturn unemployment increases and the government spends more due to unemployment benefit.

    Hayek provided a great critique of the problems with increased government control of the markets but on the other hand his alternative proposal of “free” self-regulating markets seems as fanciful as the socialist ideal.

  • #108697
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    Anonymous
    Participant

    Chopera, I think you have this right. My point (although on the whole I was more interested in making a cheap jibe about the French never being in conventional employment!) was about Keynes not Keynesianism. He had been advocating public works for some time before he produced the intellectual justification for it. And FDR, set up the TVA, not a sixth form college in Albequerque.

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