Tracking Property Prices in Spain during 2013

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This topic contains 51 replies, has 13 voices, and was last updated by Profile photo of logan logan 2 years, 11 months ago.

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  • #57540
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    Anonymous
    Participant

    I’m setting up this thread to track and discuss the evolution of house prices in Spain in the course of 2013. This is where I’ll put all the latest data on Spanish property prices as the Spanish house price indices are published each month.

    Starting with the latest house price index from the Registradores, Spain’s property registrars….

  • #117190
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    Anonymous
    Participant

    Spanish house prices fell -2.32pc in Q1 compared to the previous quarter, and -11.4pc compared to the same time last year.

    Peak-to-present, house prices are down -30.3pc, taking them back to where they were in 2003.

  • #117233
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    Anonymous
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    The European Commission says in a new report that Spanish house prices will continue falling until at least next year, having already fallen more than 30pc since 2007 (they’re wrong about that, it’s more like 50pc). That means prices declines for seven consecutive years, if they are right.

  • #117289
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    Anonymous
    Participant

    In its annual report 2012 just published the Bank of Spain estimates that Spanish property prices have fallen 34.4pc peak-to-present (since Q2 2008). That compared to 27pc declared by the Dept. of Housing (Fomento). The price trend so far this year has continued down. Residential investment went down last year for the 5th year running and is expect to decline again this year.

    BUT, they expect some areas to recover quicker than others (they are bright sparks at the BoS).

    They note that some coastal areas in particular have a big over-supply of property and a low level of sales. Much of the building boom was concentrated on the coast with holiday-home buyers in mind. On the other hand, Madrid, the Basque Country, Asturias and Galicia have relatively low new housing inventories.

    There will be no increase in housing starts this year thanks to weak demand, falling prices and excess inventories.

    Rental demand will go up.

  • #117290
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    Anonymous
    Participant

    Solvia / Banco Sabadell warn that the price of “many properties” will start rising in the second half of the year. “There is a lot of demand and stocks are running low,” said MD Miquel Montes in comments to the Spanish press. They have already started raising prices on some homes in Valencia.

    Solvia sales are up 40pc this year, with a big increase in British and Russian buyers. They also not an increase in “neighbourhood investors”, locals investing in buy-to-let in their immediate neighbourhoods.

  • #117291
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    Anonymous
    Participant

    Resale prices fell 11pc to 1,799 €/m2 over 12 months to end May according to the portal pisos.com

  • #117299
    Profile photo of angie
    angie
    Spectator

    Miquel Montes? 😆 Surely he’s stating the obvious, many price rises will be due to Solvia’s and Sabadell’s offloading at rock bottom prices, and it is in his interests to say that 😉 But does it mean the overall market will rise 🙄 ?

    If you buy fire-sale stock from bankrupts, auctions, distressed sellers, stack em high sell em low, prices will rise. You can do it at antique auctions. Buy an item for £10 it will often double in price, buy enough and make good profits, buy one for £100 it might make a tenner, bad business, have seen many dealers get it wrong whilst the savvy get it right 😛

  • #117379
    Profile photo of SPI News
    SPI News
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    According to the statistics published today by Tinsa Spain’s cities have been hardest hit with an annual fall in housing prices of 13.3%. They are followed by the Metropolitan areas, registering a 13.2% fall, and the Mediterranean coast where prices are down 8.5% on last year.

    The areas least affected were those categorized in the Other Municipalities section and the Balearic islands where prices were down 7.2% and 5% respectively.

  • #117435
    Profile photo of SPI News
    SPI News
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    House Price Index data released by Instituto Nacional de Estadistica for the first quarter of 2013 reveals the highest quarterly price fall since 2007.

    House prices fell 6.6% in the first 3 months of this year, new housing dropped 6.8% while the rest of the market saw a decline of 6.5%.

    Every region in Spain posted negative annualised declines in Q1 as illustrated by the chart below.

  • #117439
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    Anonymous
    Participant

    These are thumping big declines. It seems that official figures are finally starting to catch up with reality. Interesting to see that the islands are still faring better than the mainland.

  • #83274
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    Anonymous
    Participant

    According to Eduardo González, director of Issue Real Estate in Madrid:

    • 8 out of 10 luxury home purchases are cash only
    • Prime Madrid is down 25pc to 30pc
    • There is only one buyer for every 20 luxury homes on the market
    • The vendor who bites the bullet and drops the asking price gets the buyer
  • #83974
    Profile photo of SPI News
    SPI News
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    The price of Spanish resale housing fell 1.5% in 2013’s second quarter according to research released by the Spanish real estate news portal idealista.com. The decrease means that the average price per m2 in Spain is now at 1,723 euros.

    Regions

    Every one of Spain’s autonomous communities experienced price declines as shown in the chart below.

    Provinces

    The picture was almost as bleak for the breakdown of price changes by province but four did see price increases, Cuenca (1.9%), Guipúzcoa (1.6%), Albacete (0.8%) and León (0.2%). The rest of the statistics for Spanish provinces are in the chart below.

    Further falls expected

    The head of research at idealista.com, Fernando Encinar, believes that “although our study shows more price falls the market has still not absorbed the impact of Sareb aggressively slashing its prices which should lead to prices being driven down even further and provide a stimulus for sales.”

  • #116566
    Profile photo of SPI News
    SPI News
    Participant

    The Bank of Spain has released its annual report for 2012 in which it estimates that there has been a total fall of 34.4% in the price of Spanish housing since the adjustment began in the second quarter of 2008.

    The report notes that this negative trend has continued into 2013 and has also accelerated. The 34.4% total is higher than the recent estimate made by the Ministry of Public Works which put the total reduction at 27%.

    Regional differences

    The Bank of Spain believes that some Spanish regions will take much longer than others to recover from the housing crisis as already there are large differences apparent. On the coasts there is a massive amount of unsold housing with very few purchases while in Madrid, Aragón, País Vasco, Asturias y Galicia the unsold housing stock is much smaller.

    Rental market

    One of the conclusions of the report is that renting will grow in popularity due to the tax breaks for house purchases that expired earlier this year along with the change in tenancy laws which have made rental contracts less rigid.


    The Spanish rental market may be primed for growth according to the Bank of Spain report

  • #115706
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    SPI News
    Participant

    GLOBAL PROPERTY GUIDE HOUSE PRICE RANKINGS

    In the first quarter of 2013 the only countries in which property prices fell more, year on year, than in Spain were the Netherlands (-10.99%) and Greece (-11.53%). Spain posted a decline of 10.24% year on year although prices rose by 0.28% on the previous quarter.

    The full table can be found below.

  • #117584
    Profile photo of SPI News
    SPI News
    Participant

    The consultancy RR. de Acuña & Asociados predicts that the price of housing in Spain will fall another 25% from its current levels so that its price will equal 4 years of income for the average Spanish family.

    The ideal cost range for any country according to experts is between 3.8 and 4 years but the current level in Spain is 5.9 years of income which the majority of analysts believe is unsustainable,

    The predicted drop in prices would mean that the cost of Spanish housing would reach 1999-2000 levels.


    Graph showing the evolution of the average number of years of families’ income required to buy a house in Spain

  • #117585
    Profile photo of SPI News
    SPI News
    Participant

    A study by the Spanish real estate research body Tinsa shows that the cost of holiday housing in the Province of Barcelona has fallen 48.5% since 2007. The zones which have been worst hit in the province are Pineda de Mar, down 52.1%, and Mataró, -52%.

    Other coastal provinces which have seen large drops in the value of their holiday housing in the same period are Girona, -45%, and Tarragona, -44.5%.

    The majority of buyers on the Costa Brava are from France, Belgium and the Netherlands as well as, to a lesser extent, Britain.


    A beach in the area of Mataró in Barcelona Province which has seen falls of 52% in the
    price of its holiday homes

  • #117601
    Profile photo of Mexberry
    Mexberry
    Participant

    Are these statistics based on actual prices that vendors pay to purchase a property, or one some arbitrary amount that a bureaucrat feels that the property is valued at from a taxation point of view?

  • #117615
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    Anonymous
    Participant

    @mexberry wrote:

    Are these statistics based on actual prices that vendors pay to purchase a property, or one some arbitrary amount that a bureaucrat feels that the property is valued at from a taxation point of view?

    Tinsa do valuations based on a bunch of variables, including recent sales. But none of it is as reliable as in the UK / US. All Spanish appraisal companies have a reputation for slightly doing what their paymasters (the banks) want. 🙁

  • #117631
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    Anonymous
    Participant

    The rain in Spain falls mainly on the plan, but house prices will fall mainly on the coast; that’s the opinion of Diego Jiménez Albarracín, head of renta variable at DB (any city types care to translate renta variable? Variable Income? Equities? All I know is it’s not fixed income.)

    Jiménez argues that prices will fall most on the coast because of the excess supply of new developments.

    He also says the Sareb is right not to rush into liquidating stocks with lower prices, and should wait for the market to improve.

    I’m not sure he’s right on either count.

  • #117635
    Profile photo of DBMarcos99
    DBMarcos99
    Participant

    @mark wrote:

    The rain in Spain falls mainly on the plan, but house prices will fall mainly on the coast; that’s the opinion of Diego Jiménez Albarracín, head of renta variable at DB (any city types care to translate renta variable? Variable Income? Equities? All I know is it’s not fixed income.)

    Jiménez argues that prices will fall most on the coast because of the excess supply of new developments.

    He also says the Sareb is right not to rush into liquidating stocks with lower prices, and should wait for the market to improve.

    I’m not sure he’s right on either count.

    I think (although not certain) that renta variable refers to equities, or shares on stock markets.
    I find that this site is very good for showing examples of word usage and translation of relevant phrases.
    http://www.linguee.com/english-spanish

    I understand the reasoning behind your doubts. It may be that inland property owners are content to keep property in the family for another 10 or 20 years rather than sell under pressure. ??

  • #117639
    Profile photo of SPI News
    SPI News
    Participant

    Data released for May 2013 by the Spanish Notaries association shows a 7.9% year on year decrease in the value of housing in Spain, the average price per square metre is now at 1,218 euros.

  • #117688
    Profile photo of The Australian
    The Australian
    Participant

    great, I’ll keep waiting and make more money in the Forex market

  • #117840
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    This information is very interesting, which part of spain would you say was the best to invest in?

  • #117998
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    Anonymous
    Participant

    Latest Tinsa House Price Index – July 2013

    Main index -9.6pc
    Mediterranean coast -12.1pc
    Capitals and cities -11.2pc

    Peak-to-present:
    Mediterranean coast -44.8pc
    Capitals and cities -40.9pc
    Balearics & Canaries -29.9pc

  • #118180
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    Anonymous
    Participant

    Tinsa figures for August just released.

    http://www.tinsa.es/es/11323/prensa/notas-prensa/ano-2013/publicacion-imie-agosto-2013.html

    Main index -9.3pc
    Mediterranean coast -8.1pc
    Capitals and cities -11.0pc

    Peak-to-present:
    Mediterranean coast -44.4pc
    Capitals and cities -42.7pc
    Balearics & Canaries -28.6pc

  • #118249
    Profile photo of angie
    angie
    Spectator

    Surprised to see ‘peak to present’ figure for Capitals and Cities is not a bit stronger, IMO work related moves would have increased prices and not shown a further reduction 🙄

  • #118278
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    What about properties in Jaca?

  • #118284
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    Are you talking about Jaca, Huesca?

  • #118381
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    Just sold my 2 bed apartment in Frigiliana for over €2,000psm, or €1,800 if you include the terrace. Also didn’t bother with an agent – just advertised on rightmove, got 5 serious enquiries, 3 visits and a sale . In 3 months.

  • #118386
    Profile photo of angie
    angie
    Spectator

    Well done, good exchange rate too if converting back to Stg 😛

  • #118659
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    Tinsa Spanish house price index for October.

    [attachment=0:3s5w1od0]tinsa-oct-13.png[/attachment:3s5w1od0]

    Annualised price change graph:

    Peak to present:

    Coast: -46pc
    Capitals: -44pc
    Islands: -29pc

  • #118662
    Profile photo of angie
    angie
    Spectator

    If I was thinking of buying Spanish property during the crisis and now I would buy in the Balearics being a smaller and safer market, I’ve always thought prices hold up better in Majorca for example, the Tinsa index shows large differences between the islands and mainland. Smaller markets are niche, as are smaller quality developments even on the mainland, rather than these large overbuilt developments, and whilst they cost more initially, prices tend to be more stable 😉

  • #118663
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    You’ve fallen for what is known in the trade as The Balearic Defence 😉

    Depends what you are looking for. I think the best risk / return bet today is prime Barcelona or Madrid, though I guess Palma is not far behind.

  • #118665
    Profile photo of angie
    angie
    Spectator

    I don’t know the Balearic market very well so you could be right there Mark, I assumed being smaller that property prices held up better than on the mainland. I do agree that mainland cities could be in more demand as most cities worldwide seem to be. I still think if Spain could reduce the empty unfinished and empty illegal stock maybe seriously bulldozing them, and then concentrate on small but good and pretty development, there could be a demand for these. I think it’s all the bad stuff that devalues and affects the overall prices.

    So, back to my choices, Balearics still, good cities, and/or small niche coastal developments 😉

  • #118678
    Profile photo of angie
    angie
    Spectator

    Whispered with some caution, but have just seen the latest email from our old mate Chris’ firm, and there is quite a pleasant villa for sale at a reasonably attractive price in Elviria which is a nice part of the CDS. Detached, with very good pool and nice garden, but the main thing is it’s well presented, kitchen could do with an uplift perhaps the only negative, but if it could be bought for 500k euros (or less) it could be a nice buy. It shows that presentation and upkeep are key to helping sales in Spain 😉

    This sort of comes back to my point of smaller better quality more niche development for the Costas 😛

  • #118680
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    Can you share the link?

  • #118681
    Profile photo of angie
    angie
    Spectator

    Whilst it’s not the largest nor best looker outside, it’s what’s inside that counts, and the garden both of which are well kept, clean, and smart, plus of course the location is very good 😛

    http://www.yourviva.com/buying/property/marbella/villa-for-sale-hot-v2752-ssc/

    You do need to look at all the photos to appreciate it more 😉 It’s on for 559k but if it could be had for 500k or preferably less, I think it’s not bad 🙂

  • #118684
    Profile photo of The Australian
    The Australian
    Participant

    @angie wrote:

    Whispered with some caution, but have just seen the latest email from our old mate Chris’ firm, and there is quite a pleasant villa for sale at a reasonably attractive price in Elviria which is a nice part of the CDS. Detached, with very good pool and nice garden, but the main thing is it’s well presented, kitchen could do with an uplift perhaps the only negative, but if it could be bought for 500k euros (or less) it could be a nice buy. It shows that presentation and upkeep are key to helping sales in Spain 😉

    This sort of comes back to my point of smaller better quality more niche development for the Costas 😛

    500K?

    My well diversified stock portfolio returned 24% this year so far. No property is going to do better therefore I will only put down as little as I can towards the purchase of a property until the market implodes…and that means I need to buy a bank-repo because no one will lend more than 60% to foreigners…

  • #118685
    Profile photo of angie
    angie
    Spectator

    Not as an investment, as a place to live duh! 🙄

  • #118686
    Profile photo of The Australian
    The Australian
    Participant

    @angie wrote:

    Not as an investment, as a place to live duh! 🙄

    yes I got it, that’s what I need too!

    But I’d rather rent and trade the money so that I can make more of it 🙂

    Unless I find an absolute bargain on the property market…which I am looking for!

  • #118687
    Profile photo of angie
    angie
    Spectator

    Now I understand you Aussie, nothing wrong with renting and using the money for investment purposes 🙂 You mentioned your returns 24%, out of interest are these secure investments, they sound like risk investments that have paid off for you 😕

  • #118698
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    Nice find Angie. Not exactly the right thread for it though 🙂

  • #118704
    Profile photo of angie
    angie
    Spectator

    Oh shucks Mark, I thought the price was not bad for that area in a tracking sort of way 😛 😉

  • #118715
    Profile photo of The Australian
    The Australian
    Participant

    @angie wrote:

    Now I understand you Aussie, nothing wrong with renting and using the money for investment purposes 🙂 You mentioned your returns 24%, out of interest are these secure investments, they sound like risk investments that have paid off for you 😕

    Mainly stocks.

    I have 16 years experience in the financial markets so I know what to do.

    What may seem risky to you is a playground to me 🙂

  • #118718
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    News is that Spanish property prices rose on a monthly basis, even the WSJ has reported the news.

    There’s a good reason why prices might have risen, which is that the market is so thin that volatility has risen, which even the notaries pointed out the other day. None of which is good news. 😕

  • #118748
    Profile photo of katy
    katy
    Spectator

    😆 😆

  • #118826
    Profile photo of logan
    logan
    Participant

    @mark wrote:

    News is that Spanish property prices rose on a monthly basis, even the WSJ has reported the news.

    There’s a good reason why prices might have risen, which is that the market is so thin that volatility has risen, which even the notaries pointed out the other day. None of which is good news. 😕

    That flies in the face of all economic principles. If a market is thin the natural and inevitable direction is prices go down. It does not create volatility. That is created by high demand and market sellers scrambling to gain the highest price.

  • #118823
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    @logan wrote:

    @mark wrote:
    News is that Spanish property prices rose on a monthly basis, even the WSJ has reported the news.

    There’s a good reason why prices might have risen, which is that the market is so thin that volatility has risen, which even the notaries pointed out the other day. None of which is good news. 😕

    That flies in the face of all economic principles. If a market is thin the natural and inevitable direction is prices go down. It does not create volatility. That is created by high demand and market sellers scrambling to gain the highest price.

    If a market is thin (few transactions), average prices can go sharply up or down, which is what I mean by price volatile. A few sales can skew the average, so you can’t have much confidence in the “trend” at a time like this.

  • #118824
    Profile photo of logan
    logan
    Participant

    The ‘trend’ Mark has been continuously downward since the crash in 2007. A few sales will have no impact whatsoever on anything. Apart that is to encourage sellers of property to advertise more, believing they can influence the market into turning.

    Of course there may be small pockets of local activity for a defined particular reason but that does not skew the overall consistent trend. I have thought for some time now the market in Spain has almost reached rock bottom in line with the economic performance of the country. If that should weaken further the property market will follow.

    Equally the recovery in Spain will be very long, slow and painful for it’s population. The property market will reflect that especially the enormous back long of unsold bank stocks. You can add to that owners who want to sell because of rising costs to own a holiday home but have sat tight believing correctly it was pointless to try.

  • #118822
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    @logan wrote:

    The ‘trend’ Mark has been continuously downward since the crash in 2007. A few sales will have no impact whatsoever on anything. Apart that is to encourage sellers of property to advertise more, believing they can influence the market into turning.

    But this is my point. In a thin market a few sales can have a big impact on the average price, which can be deceptive. All of a sudden it appears that prices are rising, when the underlying trend is downwards.

    Anyway, this is not some unique insight to me, it’s just a fact that pricesindices are more volatile in thin markets.

  • #118788
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    Tinsa House Price Index October

    October Index / Peak-to-present
    General index -7.2pc / -38.5pc
    Cities -7.9pc / -42.2pc
    Coast -7.5pc / -45.4pc
    Islands -0.9pc / -27.3pc

  • #118773
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    Such a shame that accurate actual closing prices are not easily available. The reality is, of course, even if you do find a price recorded, it may not reflect what was actually paid, as cash payments are still rife. Valuing a property can’t really be based on solid empirical evidence, in many cases, an educated guess must suffice.

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