Tinsa index – January

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This topic contains 6 replies, has 4 voices, and was last updated by Profile photo of Anonymous Anonymous 5 years, 10 months ago.

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  • #56101
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    Just published:

    http://www.tinsa.es/down/IMIE/2011/IMIE_01_2011.pdf

    General: -5.0% (Dec -3.9%)
    Costas: -8.4% (Dec -6.8%)

    Peak (Dec 2007) to Present

    General: -19.6% (Dec -18.0%)
    Costas: -27.2% (Dec -26.2%(

    It should be noted that Tinsa stats are, like all those available in Spain, flawed. That said, most commentators regard them as being the best of a bad lot.

    This increase in the rate of decline is not totally unexpected given the tax increases which kicked in at the start of this year. It does however continue a worrying trend that we have seen in the past few months for those who own properties in Spain, particularly on the costas. The recent numbers for the costas are:

    Nov: -4.7%
    Dec: -6.8%
    Jan: -8.4%

    I have said on here many times before that I do not like taking one months figures in isolation. This however is now beginning to look like a trend. For what it is worth, my reading on this is that even if market sentiment were to change soon, something I very much doubt, given the rate of decline we are currently seeing, it will be at least a year before this index turns into positive territory. Thus prices are going to be falling until at least the end of this year, probably much longer.

  • #102545
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    well the figures are getting more accurate and are starting to represent reality..

    Approx 30% decline from peak for coastal properties. 200k at peak now 140K. I would say that is pretty accurate. Of course those properties at 140k are not selling but that is another matter.

  • #102546
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    Anonymous
    Participant

    Indeed JP.

    I have in fact exchanged a few thoughts with Edward Hugh on this. This is what he has to say on the subject. I happen to agree with him.

    I think the decline in prices will be slow and extended. This is the policy being deployed by the banks and caixes, and they have a sufficient part of the real estate market (and control the mortgage market) to make this stick. You also have to take into account Merkel’s argument about disconnecting salaries from prices. This will eventually prevail, and is the first step towards the kind of adjustment I have been advocating. So it is more than likely we will see a “Japan style” process, with house prices and real wages falling in tandem, and over a decade or more, till the Spanish economy finally becomes competitive with the German one, and Spanish house prices comparable with German house prices.”

  • #102564
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    Anonymous
    Participant

    @jp1 wrote:

    well the figures are getting more accurate and are starting to represent reality..

    Approx 30% decline from peak for coastal properties. 200k at peak now 140K. I would say that is pretty accurate. Of course those properties at 140k are not selling but that is another matter.

    I think that the Tinsa figures are still optimistic, but have also witnessed the 200K to 140K decline.

    I’m not so sure that the 140K properties are not selling, that would depend on the more specific areas of Spain, and a lot of other factors.

    My personal view, for the Alicante province, is that 140K represents good value for the buyer, especially from the UK and other parts of Europe. It gets you a small, two-bedroom detached, with a pool on a 400 metre plot. Depending on location, the most important factor, that may represent good value for the incomer.

    Larger investors will obviously wait for further falls as appears to be the continuing trend, but the private buyer might well be tempted at 140K, especially if he’s coming to stay.

  • #102565
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    Anonymous
    Participant

    For what it is worth I have for some time now felt that Tinsa are actually running some 12-24 months behind what is actually happening in the market. I base this on the fact that they record the market peak as Dec 2007. I wasn’t following the market at the time but from what I read, most observers seem to feel the peak was earlier than that, sometime in 2006.

    If, as most commentators appear to be currently saying, the falls on the Costas are in reality around the 40% level from peak, this would tie in with the Tinsa stats running around a year behind reality.

    As I said in my first post on this thread. These are flawed stats but probably the best of a bad lot.

  • #102570
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    For all you ‘facts-and-figures’ guys out there, some facts and figures –

    courtesy of the National Statistics Institute:

    http://www.typicallyspanish.com/news/publish/article_29144.shtml

  • #102516
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    A 12.4% increase in the resale sector in 2010, according to the link posted by Charlie, and according to an impeccable source.

    Even for an optimist like myself, those are amazing figures, far better than my own, local observations.

    The biggest agent in this area, Atlas, much derided and even sued by numerous dissatisfied customers, are operating again, albeit on a much smaller basis than before. Around four to five years ago, their buses ferrying around innocent victims from the UK were clogging local roads and then they disappeared along with the developers going into administration.

    I saw an Atlas bus the other day, again full of innocent hopefuls from the UK and it made me wonder. Haven’t those innocents watched TV, read the newspapers or searched the internet?

    Are people’s memories really that short?

    According to the statistics on resales, they are.

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