Tinsa Index – Apr

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This topic contains 9 replies, has 5 voices, and was last updated by Profile photo of Anonymous Anonymous 4 years, 6 months ago.

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  • #56825
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    A bit late this month:

    http://www.tinsa.es/n-pages/np-files/1/18/ficha_Imie_Abril_2012-.pdf

    General -12.5% (Mar -11.5%)
    Costas -14.3% (Mar -10.8%)

    Peak (Dec 2007) to present

    General -29.8%
    Costas -37.0%

    It looks like this index is now plunging quite quickly.

  • #108800
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    The index fall is at about floor 6 (out of 10). When the value of the index reaches 1000. i.e. the 2001 value, then maybe is time to look, if one is really interested.

  • #108802
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    For me the Tinsa index is more a sign of how far Spain has gotten in their will to reform the goverment. When this index follows reality quite quickly it’s fair to say that Spain is about to recover from their current predicament. No one believes this index anyhow.

  • #108803
    Profile photo of peterhun
    peterhun
    Participant

    Inflation adjusted prices are back to about 2001/2002

  • #108805
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    @Ardun wrote:

    For me the Tinsa index is more a sign of how far Spain has gotten in their will to reform the goverment. When this index follows reality quite quickly it’s fair to say that Spain is about to recover from their current predicament. No one believes this index anyhow.

    The situation in Spain has started to deteriorate quickly from July-August 2011 so the index is about 9-10 month behind.
    I do not see any reason for improvement before 2013 so TINSA might improve around Spring 2014.

  • #108809
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    I never like taking one or two months numbers in isolation but the index is now showing five consecutive months of increasing rates of fall. This to me is down to a combination of increased worries about the economic situation and the banks having to start facing the scale of their losses.

    For what it is worth I have always felt the Tinsa numbers to be seriously trailing the market. My guess is by 12-24 months. For example they list the market peak as Dec 2007. Most observers would say it was some time in 2006.

    at present I don’t see anything on the horizon other than continued falls. Perhaps even to pre-2000 prices.

  • #108849
    Profile photo of Chris McCarthy
    Chris McCarthy
    Participant

    @brianc_li wrote:

    For what it is worth I have always felt the Tinsa numbers to be seriously trailing the market. My guess is by 12-24 months. For example they list the market peak as Dec 2007. Most observers would say it was some time in 2006.
    at present I don’t see anything on the horizon other than continued falls. Perhaps even to pre-2000 prices.

    The figures and the analysis are indeed often horribly bent out of shape. As Brianc_li has always made clear.

    The truth as we see it – on the real estate side – is that the absolute peak of interest and clients in the market was the end of the first quarter of 2004, after that numbers started a slow and gradual decline as did sales through 2005 and into 2006, and right off the scale by 2007.

    The reason for the ‘so called’ peak in ’06-’07 in my view was the massive and unstoppable tidal wave of ‘new development – off plan’ sales that took place between ’03-’05 which then were completing / registering some two to four years later. Giving a completely false impression that thousands of sales were being registered when in truth the market had already collapsed.

    I appreciate the posting of the TINSA report each month, and watch the falls with as much interest as everyone else, and can report that yes many prices are at 40% below the peak, even of solid and quality resales stock, and now ‘sell out’ stock on certain old / new projects are at 50% and slightly beyond, whilst some bank repossessions are beginning to edge further below.

    The fascinating thing however from our perspective is that our average sale / purchase price is still over €320,000 which is where it was back in 2006.

    Now go figure that one out.

    The thing is, everyone talks cheap, looks cheap, but there’s not that many folk buying just cos its cheap.

  • #109028
    Profile photo of Chris McCarthy
    Chris McCarthy
    Participant

    @brianc_li wrote:

    For what it is worth I have always felt the Tinsa numbers to be seriously trailing the market. My guess is by 12-24 months. For example they list the market peak as Dec 2007. Most observers would say it was some time in 2006.
    at present I don’t see anything on the horizon other than continued falls. Perhaps even to pre-2000 prices.

    The figures and the analysis are indeed often horribly bent out of shape. As Brianc_li has always made clear.

    The truth as we see it – on the real estate side – is that the absolute peak of interest and clients in the market was the end of the first quarter of 2004, after that numbers started a slow and gradual decline as did sales through 2005 and into 2006, and right off the scale by 2007.

    The reason for the ‘so called’ peak in ’06-’07 in my view was the massive and unstoppable tidal wave of ‘new development – off plan’ sales that took place between ’03-’05 which then were completing / registering some two to four years later. Giving a completely false impression that thousands of sales were being registered when in truth the market had already collapsed.

    I appreciate the posting of the TINSA report each month, and watch the falls with as much interest as everyone else, and can report that yes many prices are at 40% below the peak, even of solid and quality resales stock, and now ‘sell out’ stock on certain old / new projects are at 50% and slightly beyond, whilst some bank repossessions are beginning to edge further below.

    The fascinating thing however from our perspective is that our average sale / purchase price is still over €320,000 which is where it was back in 2006.

    Now go figure that one out.

    The thing is, everyone talks cheap, looks cheap, but there’s not that many folk buying just cos its cheap.

  • #108853
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    But Chris that’s not so weird when you take inflation into account. 12-20% of fake inflation?

  • #109036
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    But Chris that’s not so weird when you take inflation into account. 12-20% of fake inflation?

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