Supply/Demand Dynamics

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    Anonymous

     

    Dear Mark Stücklin,

     

    I am currently doing some research on the Spanish mortgage market and I have read some of your articles on that topic. Especially the ‘Glut Of New Homes Shrinks, But Is It Enough?’ article caught my interest, which talks about the supply/demand dynamics in the market. I am trying to better understand the market and it would be great if you could briefly help me out.

     

    Firstly, there are some predictions that the house prices in Spain are going to increase in the next few quarters (such as recent S&P, Bankinter and Fitch predictions), however do these projections make sense given the significant over supply that you have talked about?

    Also do you have any information on:

    • Supply of housing: new constructions, new starts, half built developments (regionally?)
    • Demand: household formation, mortgage availability?

     

    Basically how do you think will the prices develop in the near to medium term and when will the supply glut end?

    Also do you know the current interest rate for new mortgages, since I have seen several different figures.

     

    I would greatly appreciate to hear your opinion.

     

    Kind regards,

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