Spanish housing glut in figures

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This topic contains 18 replies, has 6 voices, and was last updated by Profile photo of angie angie 6 years, 7 months ago.

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  • #55582
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    This just sent to me.

    Housing Minister Beatriz Corredor has revealed that in Spain overall there
    are 688,044 new homes built on speculation with no owners in sight – an
    increase of 12% over last year and 61% of these are near the sea. The
    majority of these homes are in Andalucia (110,147), the Valencian Community
    (110,798) and Catalunia (107,240), whilst in the Valencian Community, the
    lead province is Alicante where almost 49,343 new homes lie awaiting a
    prospective owner. Coming second is Valencia Province(36,089) and in third
    place is Castellon(34,366). As for the other provinces along the
    Mediterranean, the availability reads: Gerona -15,402: Barcelona – 62,804;
    Tarragona – 17,366; Murcia – 29,684; Almeria – 22,517; Granada – 11,491;
    Malaga – 22,666; Cadiz 17,005 and Huelva – 7,036.

  • #98370
    Profile photo of angie
    angie
    Spectator

    Would a Spanish Housing Minister’s figures be trustworthy, these seem on the light side and doubtful????

  • #98371
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    Angie, I agree with you. specially if they were built without any licences etc i.e. no trace of any documentary trail of existence.

  • #98375
    Profile photo of angie
    angie
    Spectator

    I can’t believe it shakeel, we’re agreeing again, it’s great!

    Where did the other 1 million unsold properties go to, figures before Christmas indicated there were between 1.5 and 2 million unsold homes, mainly new builds.

    This Housing Minister is massaging the figures in a similar way to the Labour Gov’t massaging Britain’s unemployment figures (7 million ish, not 2.5 million) ๐Ÿ™‚

  • #98377
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    Angie, its boring when people agree. I cant have a clean fight.

  • #98379
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    Fotocasa shows 325,000 homes for sale in Spain.

    Being a physicist in a former life and always been told something on the lines of a good physicist can estimate the number of piano tuners in Dusseldorf. Here goes… (but working backwards of course)

    Number of websites advertising homes (A lot!!!). Lets say Fotocasa has 10% of the market

    Therefore 3,250,000 homes for sale

    Number of homes not advertised on the Internet (pretty high tech world these days so 10% just in the shop window)

    Therefore 3,575,000 homes for sale

    Number of homes not advertised because owners too lazy, not got around to it, feel it’s not worth it 10%

    Therefore potentially 3,932,500 for sale

    And finally taking my Spanish town as an example Fotocasa shows 360 homes for sale. (this includes the town of El Ejido and the resort of Almerimar). 360 is about the number of homes in 1 complex!! Knowing the area I would say fotocasa is only showing 1 or 2% of the properties available or even less!!!

    Therefore doing the calculation again at 5% there are potentially 8 million properties for sale!!!

    These are obviously new and re-sale properties, but it highlights the potential problem in terms of homes looking for it’s first owner and those over-committed and needing to sell.

    Having just done the above I think Spain’s problem is even bigger than we all think

  • #98380
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    SOUNDS LIKE YOU WERE GORDON BROWN IN A FORMER LIFE ON THAT BASIS.

  • #98381
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    8 million was just for effect!!

    I don’t believe there are 8 million properties for sale. However, I do think that estimating fotocasa with 10% of all properties for sale in Spain is reasonable (and on the conservative side) Clearly for El Ejido its has a lot less than 10% of all sales.

    That gives around 3.25 million properties for sale in Spain. I expect this figure to more accurately represent the true picture of the Housing market than other figures put out by estate agents or official bodies. This is real data, these are real properties, it available for everyone to see.

    The only error is the estimate in the % of all Spanish properties on fotocas. And as I said I think 10% is giving fotocasa a lot more credit than it’s due.

    How about we hear your estimate?

  • #98382
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    JP1:

    QED

  • #98385
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    Actually one thing that fotocasa does not show are properties that are not completed due to the construction being abandonded. Again for El Ejido and Almerimar there are a few complexes in this position. Again I have no idea of the real number but it’s easily over 1000 apartments, could be 10,000 or more. In the exclusive complex (on the beach literally!) where 1 bed apartments were advertised from 400,000 Euros ๐Ÿ˜† the number of unfinished apartments must be close to 300 (you can see for yourself I took the pictures last year). This is one complex, there are several more in the area. And again remember fotocasa shows 360 apartments for sale in this area. Almost the same number of this SINGLE abandonded complex.

    The era of easy credit has gone. Foreign European buyers are many years away from returning due to financial constraints. Spain is facing a huge huge problem in over-supply. There is no doubt about it.

  • #98386
    Profile photo of angie
    angie
    Spectator

    I think there must be over 2 million unsold properties, some say 1.5 million others have quoted 3 million so somewhere between the two I reckon.

    Mark didn’t say who sent him those figures so my vivid imagination conjures ‘some strange little character in a back street in Madrid with a printing machine who has run off that list for the Housing Minister whilst all around his/her dimly lit office are newly printed 50 euro notes hanging on washing lines which the Spanish Gov’t turns a blind eye to in return for favours’. Clearly the Housing Minister is blackmailing this character over a former lewd act in a toilet!!!!

    Only joking Mark ๐Ÿ˜‰ You’ll probably tell us that Chris sent this list to you!! ๐Ÿ™‚

  • #98387
    Profile photo of Chris McCarthy
    Chris McCarthy
    Participant

    @angie wrote:

    I think there must be over 2 million unsold properties, some say 1.5 million others have quoted 3 million so somewhere between the two I reckon.

    Only joking Mark ๐Ÿ˜‰ You’ll probably tell us that Chris sent this list to you!! ๐Ÿ™‚

    Oh dear Angie,

    Is there no end I ask myself?

    You guys want stats, as soon as you get them you shoot them down, you sooo desperately want to be able to say that the coasts are as pictured above in all areas, and that everything is not just doom and gloom but absolute unmitigated disaster.

    I get it, and there is a property glut, but we said last year that in the Malaga area this was only about 20,000 and these stats are about right. The overall 1-1.5million relates to huge urban areas not just the coasts and will be already being eaten up by the sheer halt construction activity in Spain, and the natural requirement for 400,000 new homes annually, so in another year or two the glut is gone.

    But yes there may well be some shells such as above here and there for another 10 years, some projects should never have got off the drawing board, and will remain an eyesore.

    Me, it is Saturday, I just spent a few hours at my desk, now I am off to play golf at Las Brisas teeing off at about 5pm and ending up in the cool evening sun around 8:45pm, it is going to be just lovely.

    Am going to drive by the extension work to the CDS Hospital as I go, have to go up near San Pedro first so will get a look at how that underpass is proceeding and have seen all manner of local roadworks taking place at urbanisations this past, week to mention nothing of having arrived at our amazing new aiport terminal last week. I see the CDS growing and improving every week.

    I am never going to be able to report to you Angie that which you wish for, that the CDS has shut down and disappeared, has happened, sorry to disappoint you, it is growing now daily once again, it is developing once again, it has a future once again, just like everywhere else in the world that has been through such terrible times.

    Why do you just knock everything continuously Angie, is there anything or anyone in life, that you have something positive to say about? Do you see anything happy or good in the world?

  • #98391
    Profile photo of angie
    angie
    Spectator

    You sad man Chris, you just don’t know when someone’s having a joke do you? It was a jest which you take so personally.

    Why do you then launch into what you’re doing all day in Spain, I’m not interested as I’m sure you wouldn’t be if I told what I’m doing?

    I’m not too interested in stats which you say we want, ( lots of Stats in Spain are untrustworthy) I use my eyes to see the huge numbers of unsolds, I read the Press and adverts and websites including yours which show me the reduced sales prices etc. BTW Have you forgotten how many times you’ve said I post interesting and relevant points too?

    You then tell us a lot of what we know already in your paragraphs, what has already been posted by others, (the shells etc) above. Repetition!

    You mentioned ‘absolute unmitigated disaster’ overblowing the whole thing!!

    So now you know what I’m wishing for as well, Rubbish, You know nothing about me or my thoughts!! I’m not asking you to report to me either!! I use information that is reliable!

    I have a very happy life too with lots outside of Spain as well, (France, US, UK) thank you for enquiring so sarcastically! I also enjoy currencies too and investing, sorry am I boring you?

    You just cannot stand anyone on here who portrays their bad experiences, or who wish to point out their views if it is negative in any way, or is posted to serve as a warning to others. You’ve also driven others away from this board! ๐Ÿ˜‰ Are you going to ask for me to be removed from the board, I’d hate to think you have that much influence? ๐Ÿ˜ฏ

    I’ve a good mind to drive to Las Brivas with a bucket of cold water to cool you down otherwise you might shank the shots on your short irons (joke again):)

    8) ๐Ÿ˜‰

  • #98393
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    Chris,

    Fotocasa shows 15,688 properties for sale in the province of Malaga. 75% of properties on one site? I don’t think so, especially since it’s primarily a site for private vendors, but the commercial posts do seem to be increasing.

    I think 150,000 properties on the market is closer to the truth. Some are residents moving on and away due to new jobs, or moving up, but this is a really small percentage as Spain does not have the movement of a labour market like the UK, especially in tourist areas.

    I have posted here as I think sites such as fotocasa can give a real insight into more realistic figures about the number of properties for sale. It’s not about knocking Spain. But if your interested in what may be facing Spain from a financial perspective in the next few years real statistics can give you a flavour.

    Personally I think we are going to see Spain call for a bailout in the next few months (or next year). There must be so many indebted individuals holding second properties falling in value, to what must be today less than their mortgages. It’s all very well when people talk about sitting on the property awaiting the upturn, but in the meantime they are paying interest payments, community charges, council tax, utilities etc all of this on a holiday property and many people have lost their jobs. I was in the exact situation last year as I owned 2 properties. I cut my losses and ran on my second “investment” property. I sold it within about 4 weeks of advertising as the price was so low. This morning I have seen 3 properties (only 1 on Fotocasa) in the same complex at a lower price to my actual neogatited price! Something is going to break and I think the huge number of properties for sale (IMHO well above the 1 million that has been quoted) is going to cause further price falls and a major banking crisis in Spain as tens of thousands default on their loans.

  • #98394
    Profile photo of Chris McCarthy
    Chris McCarthy
    Participant

    @angie wrote:

    I have a very happy life too with lots outside of Spain as well, (France, US, UK) thank you for enquiring so sarcastically! I also enjoy currencies too and investing, sorry am I boring you?

    You just cannot stand anyone on here who portrays their bad experiences, or who wish to point out their views if it is negative in any way, or is posted to serve as a warning to others. You’ve also driven others away from this board! ๐Ÿ˜‰ Are you going to ask for me to be removed from the board, I’d hate to think you have that much influence? ๐Ÿ˜ฏ

    I’ve a good mind to drive to Las Brivas with a bucket of cold water to cool you down otherwise you might shank the shots on your short irons (joke again):)

    8) ๐Ÿ˜‰

    I am sorry if I didn’t get the joke. Truly I am.

    As I think I have said on a number of times, I actually value your contributions quite highly, and would never ask for anyone to be removed, and I wasn’t actually trying to be sarcastic so am sorry for that too.

    I am an agent who actually… tries not to lie continuously, however you seem to jump all over everything negative about Spain continuously, I actually support you in warning of bad or negative experiences, I think it is very valuable and I made the mistake once before of questioning your right do so and accepted my mistake, but I am just wondering though…

    Is there anything positive you would have to say here, as an insight, or is forever your role to doubt, pour cold water on every stat and detail? If you have a very happy life outside of Spain, why does Spain recieve so much of your negative focus?

    I give much credence, support and agreement to a lot of what you have to say. I also appreciate that you have in the past given me a fair hearing as well, but is there nothing that you find that is an improvement, is interesting, is hopeful about the future here?

    Who drives who away from the site I wonder? There are many people who have bought in the past year, who came to give their reasons why and how, who have just given up the ghost having been derided for doing so, and you Angie, is it fun being the scarecrow all the time?

    Or unfair of me to ask, just once, is there nothing you see that is attractive about an insight into Spain?

    I am here today, and having a lovely time, I am not alone and I don’t think I am wrong to be here and be hopeful for the future, agent or not, I will go home to UK at the end of the week and I will love it there too.

    My apologies once again if you thought I was being sarcastic or personal, I find being on a forum difficult sometimes to pick the right nuance or delivery, I just speak first and should maybe think a bit more, but like many probably don’t have the time, so sometimes get the wrong note, but I would love it, if you would tell me something positive about peoples decision to live and holiday here.

    Thanks

  • #98395
    Profile photo of Chris McCarthy
    Chris McCarthy
    Participant

    @jp1 wrote:

    Chris,

    Fotocasa shows 15,688 properties for sale in the province of Malaga. 75% of properties on one site? I don’t think so, especially since it’s primarily a site for private vendors, but the commercial posts do seem to be increasing.
    .

    Hi Jp1,

    The figure that began this, being as Mark mentioned 22,000 for Malaga, this figure is not representative of all properties for sale in Malaga it is moreso representative of properties that were built by developers across Malaga province that now sit mostly completed or close to, but unsold having been built, at least that is my understanding of that statistic, the properties you see on Fotocasa will not include these properties.

    As to whether Spain will seek a bailout, that is way above my ability to say, as to the number of properties for sale, will I have always understood that there was a rule of thumb down here and actually elsewhere that at any given time there would be 15% of properties on the market good times or bad.

    So how many properties would that make against the total number of built units here? Now that percentage may just be for holiday homes urbanisations on the the coast. What if the actual number of people selling or thinking of selling at any given time was 5% well then you have some stats to work with.

    But I can tell you, there are actually far fewer people selling resales now than at any given time I am aware of in the past twelve years. Not everyone has had to cut and run, and you know what, not everyone was buying for an investment, I have said it before and will doubtless say it till i am blue in the face.

    Most everyone who owns here, wanted to own here, uses their property here, and is happy here.

    This is not all about investment. And whilst I agree it is not all very well for people to be sitting on a mortgage, community fees etc, if everyone was running away from them, then there would be the massive cataclysmic price fall and rush away from the coasts, but despite all predictions of the many here, well it just hasn’t happened has it? Prices fell, as they fell everywhere, there is a bottom to it, unless possibly the world falls apart again, but even then, even if Spain has a bailout, you just can’t stop people coming, you just can’t stop people buying, it is all relative.

    You were right to selll and go, others are right to have bought and stayed, others still are right to come and buy, it is a mix, nobody is all right and nobody is all wrong either!

  • #98398
    Profile photo of angie
    angie
    Spectator

    While you’ve been playing golf Chris, I’ve just driven round and counted the number of ‘for sale’ signs in Malaga Province, !00’s of 1000’s! Only joking again, but many more I believe than quoted in those stats.

    When you post back to me, you’re a bit like ‘good news, bad news’, you like to sing my praises, backed up with an immediate rebuff, very predictable! You really do get wound up even though we don’t attack your firm, so you sometimes make it worse for yourself. Most agents here seem to respect our views without the need to fire salvos back.

    You did the same with Goodstich and several others, they also had views that you didn’t like and made known here, other agents didn’t, it appeared as if you had major influence on this Board.

    If we don’t believe stats from Spain, that’s justifiable considering what happens there, it’s our opinion, your’s is your’s, maybe your’s is more commercially driven! It often seems so.

    The good news though is that a previous post of mine agreed that British buyers would return once the exchange rate improved but not to the extent you thought, one of us will be right I suppose or will it be a coalition?

    The weather is far better in Spain than the UK, and today you can fly to Malaga from ยฃ29.99 single including taxes, how good is that? Prawns are much cheaper too, but they do come from Scotland which is unfair to Brits. in the UK. Eating out is much cheaper too!

    I don’t say you ‘lie continuously’ as an agent, that always been on my posts ever since I tangled with Awful Estates, thankfully now history!

    I still have vested interest in Spain and property, so it still remains a chunk of my life, I’m not crying over it though, I have to put up with my mistakes, even there.

    If my experiences help one person consider carefully whether to buy in Spain or not, to weigh up the pros and cons, the completion and other costs, the exchange rate mechanism etc which they may not have considered, then IMO that will be a good job done. If they then buy, that’s their decision which may well suit them for lifestyle, I doubt though the investment for quite a while!

    Read my previous post to Mark and for goodness sake try and see the joke, you know it makes sense Rodney ๐Ÿ˜‰

  • #98412
    Profile photo of Chris McCarthy
    Chris McCarthy
    Participant

    @angie wrote:

    Read my previous post to Mark and for goodness sake try and see the joke, you know it makes sense Rodney ๐Ÿ˜‰

    That’s more than fair, thanks!

    And I take note of your comments about me too, will try not to be seen as firing salvos back, sometimes we don’t appreciate how we come across, so it is a point well taken.

  • #98446
    Profile photo of angie
    angie
    Spectator

    I forget how to spell (feignites, feinites) Chris, so thanks for your post in reply!

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