Spain’s population falling.

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This topic contains 42 replies, has 7 voices, and was last updated by Profile photo of logan logan 3 years, 7 months ago.

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  • #57416
    Profile photo of logan
    logan
    Participant

    Spain’s population has fallen for the first time – because of the eurozone crisis.
    The number of residents fell by 206,000 to 47.1million, the National Statistics Institute reports. Immigrants are leaving the country because of the inability to find work.

    http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/04/22/us-spain-population-idUSBRE93L0J620130422

    This may not come as any surprise to anyone but I predict it will continue until the economic crisis ends. This will further impact the property market making demand for residential homes weaker still.

    In UK and France recently arrived immigrants don’t leave because they can live on welfare. A fact I’m sure is not lost on the governments of those countries. Usually when a downturn bites immigrants are the first to leave followed by talented and qualified residents born in the country.

    Spain now has the highest budget deficit in the EU at 10.6% of GDP which includes the costs of bank restructuring. Spain is likely to be granted a 2 year extension to reduce the deficit to more manageable levels. More austerity then?

    The maximum permissible limit imposed by the Maastricht Treaty is a 3% budget deficit. πŸ™‚

  • #84329
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    The rules have been bent so far that they are now pointless and its all just been made up as they go along.
    If the e.u was a business it would have folded by now.The best thing for all would be to drop all the countries that fail to meet the requirements back onto their own currencies so they can get themselves out of the mess that has been created.

  • #84470
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    The rules have been bent so far that they are now pointless and its all just been made up as they go along.
    If the e.u was a business it would have folded by now.The best thing for all would be to drop all the countries that fail to meet the requirements back onto their own currencies so they can get themselves out of the mess that has been created.

  • #84331
    Profile photo of DBMarcos99
    DBMarcos99
    Participant

    Spain now has the highest budget deficit in the EU at 10.6% of GDP which includes the costs of bank restructuring.

    You quote this again, when the real level is 7% excluding the bank loans.
    If you want to include the bank loans remember that 40 billion was repaid in January, so if you want to persist on this measurement, you can’t quibble when the 2013 deficit figure is dramatically reduced!!!

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-02-01/ltro-post-mortem-who-repaid-what-european-excess-cash-now-reabsorbed

    Spanish banks under our coverage will repay €41 bn of LTRO in January, or c.1/3 of the initial take-up. This is essentially due to Santander and BBVA (€32 bn), for which funding conditions have improved most. Domestic banks will repay a total of €9 bn or 12% of initial take-up. While a positive from a signaling perspective, we view the Spanish repayments as earnings dilutive, and risky. We believe it would have been preferable for Spanish banks to have held onto the ECB funds for longer.

    Yes of course there has been a fall in population, after 17 years of rises!!! No wonder given the recession and job losses.
    But at long last it’s looking like it’s starting to turn around. If we look on the Spanish jobs portal, apart from the normal jobs abroad, we see 3,400 new jobs with Jazztel in Barcelona, 1,000 people being set on with Ford in Valencia, 400 at a new logistics centre in Madrid. Plus jobs being created by Cap Gemini in Asturias and Mercedes Benz in Vitoria.
    Great news for the Spanish and their economy!!
    http://www.portalparados.es/actualidad

  • #84473
    Profile photo of DBMarcos99
    DBMarcos99
    Participant

    Spain now has the highest budget deficit in the EU at 10.6% of GDP which includes the costs of bank restructuring.

    You quote this again, when the real level is 7% excluding the bank loans.
    If you want to include the bank loans remember that 40 billion was repaid in January, so if you want to persist on this measurement, you can’t quibble when the 2013 deficit figure is dramatically reduced!!!

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-02-01/ltro-post-mortem-who-repaid-what-european-excess-cash-now-reabsorbed

    Spanish banks under our coverage will repay €41 bn of LTRO in January, or c.1/3 of the initial take-up. This is essentially due to Santander and BBVA (€32 bn), for which funding conditions have improved most. Domestic banks will repay a total of €9 bn or 12% of initial take-up. While a positive from a signaling perspective, we view the Spanish repayments as earnings dilutive, and risky. We believe it would have been preferable for Spanish banks to have held onto the ECB funds for longer.

    Yes of course there has been a fall in population, after 17 years of rises!!! No wonder given the recession and job losses.
    But at long last it’s looking like it’s starting to turn around. If we look on the Spanish jobs portal, apart from the normal jobs abroad, we see 3,400 new jobs with Jazztel in Barcelona, 1,000 people being set on with Ford in Valencia, 400 at a new logistics centre in Madrid. Plus jobs being created by Cap Gemini in Asturias and Mercedes Benz in Vitoria.
    Great news for the Spanish and their economy!!
    http://www.portalparados.es/actualidad

  • #84515
    Profile photo of logan
    logan
    Participant

    It’s not me who insists on including the bank restructuring in these figures it is the EU itself.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/ailing-spain-set-to-miss-eu-deficit-reduction-targets-7737954.html

    Your posts are increasing incredulous in the face of the real facts. This link is a year old and the predictions on the money.

  • #84266
    Profile photo of logan
    logan
    Participant

    It’s not me who insists on including the bank restructuring in these figures it is the EU itself.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/ailing-spain-set-to-miss-eu-deficit-reduction-targets-7737954.html

    Your posts are increasing incredulous in the face of the real facts. This link is a year old and the predictions on the money.

  • #84513
    Profile photo of DBMarcos99
    DBMarcos99
    Participant

    @logan wrote:

    It’s not me who insists on including the bank restructuring in these figures it is the EU itself.

    Well fine – you won’t quibble at the suspiciously low 2013 figure then?

    All a bit irrelevant by the way as the EU is easing up on the austerity measues.

  • #84264
    Profile photo of DBMarcos99
    DBMarcos99
    Participant

    @logan wrote:

    It’s not me who insists on including the bank restructuring in these figures it is the EU itself.

    Well fine – you won’t quibble at the suspiciously low 2013 figure then?

    All a bit irrelevant by the way as the EU is easing up on the austerity measues.

  • #84504
    Profile photo of logan
    logan
    Participant
  • #84258
    Profile photo of logan
    logan
    Participant
  • #84507
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    “we see 3,400 new jobs with Jazztel in Barcelona, 1,000 people being set on with Ford in Valencia, 400 at a new logistics centre in Madrid. Plus jobs being created by Cap Gemini in Asturias and Mercedes Benz in Vitoria”

    Are they permanent jobs ( fixa ) or temporary jobs & they will be laid off every six months.

  • #84260
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    “we see 3,400 new jobs with Jazztel in Barcelona, 1,000 people being set on with Ford in Valencia, 400 at a new logistics centre in Madrid. Plus jobs being created by Cap Gemini in Asturias and Mercedes Benz in Vitoria”

    Are they permanent jobs ( fixa ) or temporary jobs & they will be laid off every six months.

  • #84510
    Profile photo of DBMarcos99
    DBMarcos99
    Participant

    @logan wrote:

    http://forexblog.oanda.com/20130222/spain-will-miss-deficit-reduction-targets-in-2013/

    I’m going to bookmark that link – they obviously don’t factor in the January 40 billion early repayment by the banks.
    Not seen the interest rates that Spain is paying on its bonds lately? Going down all the time.
    Seen the export predictions for February ? Spain expected to be the fastest growing country in the EU as per exports.

  • #84262
    Profile photo of DBMarcos99
    DBMarcos99
    Participant

    @logan wrote:

    http://forexblog.oanda.com/20130222/spain-will-miss-deficit-reduction-targets-in-2013/

    I’m going to bookmark that link – they obviously don’t factor in the January 40 billion early repayment by the banks.
    Not seen the interest rates that Spain is paying on its bonds lately? Going down all the time.
    Seen the export predictions for February ? Spain expected to be the fastest growing country in the EU as per exports.

  • #84501
    Profile photo of katy
    katy
    Spectator

    …and Italy’s bond rates have dropped even lower than Spain’s rates…we all know why πŸ™„

  • #84256
    Profile photo of katy
    katy
    Spectator

    …and Italy’s bond rates have dropped even lower than Spain’s rates…we all know why πŸ™„

  • #84228
    Profile photo of Chris McCarthy
    Chris McCarthy
    Participant

    @katy wrote:

    …and Italy’s bond rates have dropped even lower than Spain’s rates…we all know why πŸ™„

    I don’t know why…

    As to the topic, was just reading this link about the population in Malaga actually rising, thanks to residential tourism they say:

    http://www.diariosur.es/20130423/local/malaga/malaga-lidera-crecimiento-poblacional-201304222217.html

  • #84461
    Profile photo of Chris McCarthy
    Chris McCarthy
    Participant

    @katy wrote:

    …and Italy’s bond rates have dropped even lower than Spain’s rates…we all know why πŸ™„

    I don’t know why…

    As to the topic, was just reading this link about the population in Malaga actually rising, thanks to residential tourism they say:

    http://www.diariosur.es/20130423/local/malaga/malaga-lidera-crecimiento-poblacional-201304222217.html

  • #84429
    Profile photo of logan
    logan
    Participant

    @Chris McCarthy wrote:

    I don’t know why…

    Because Spain’s recession is three times deeper than forecast. The IMF predicts its economy will shrink 1.6% this year. Its general unemployment level is at 27% heading for 30%.

    Bond yields have dropped from unsustainable levels of over 7% to around 4.25% because of austerity measures. Rajoy will announce more this Friday. There is speculation IVA will take another hike.

    Pleasing the Germans comes at quite a price.

  • #84196
    Profile photo of logan
    logan
    Participant

    @Chris McCarthy wrote:

    I don’t know why…

    Because Spain’s recession is three times deeper than forecast. The IMF predicts its economy will shrink 1.6% this year. Its general unemployment level is at 27% heading for 30%.

    Bond yields have dropped from unsustainable levels of over 7% to around 4.25% because of austerity measures. Rajoy will announce more this Friday. There is speculation IVA will take another hike.

    Pleasing the Germans comes at quite a price.

  • #84431
    Profile photo of Chris McCarthy
    Chris McCarthy
    Participant

    @logan wrote:

    @Chris McCarthy wrote:

    I don’t know why…

    Bond yields have dropped from unsustainable levels of over 7% to around 4.25% because of austerity measures. Rajoy will announce more this Friday. There is speculation IVA will take another hike.

    Thanks Logan, forgive me am a little bit lost though.

    I didn’t know why Italy’s would be lower than Spain’s was the first thing.

    But, given all the panic the past couple of years, threat to the Euro and all that talk that used to be about returning to the Peseta (never gonna happen folks was my argument back in the day) is it not a good thing that the rates are now sooo much lower?

    Is it not a good thing that yet more action is being taken by Rajoy?

    Isn’t this what we all wanted to see back a couple of years ago?

    Thanks

  • #84198
    Profile photo of Chris McCarthy
    Chris McCarthy
    Participant

    @logan wrote:

    @Chris McCarthy wrote:

    I don’t know why…

    Bond yields have dropped from unsustainable levels of over 7% to around 4.25% because of austerity measures. Rajoy will announce more this Friday. There is speculation IVA will take another hike.

    Thanks Logan, forgive me am a little bit lost though.

    I didn’t know why Italy’s would be lower than Spain’s was the first thing.

    But, given all the panic the past couple of years, threat to the Euro and all that talk that used to be about returning to the Peseta (never gonna happen folks was my argument back in the day) is it not a good thing that the rates are now sooo much lower?

    Is it not a good thing that yet more action is being taken by Rajoy?

    Isn’t this what we all wanted to see back a couple of years ago?

    Thanks

  • #84425
    Profile photo of logan
    logan
    Participant

    @Chris McCarthy wrote:

    I didn’t know why Italy’s would be lower than Spain’s was the first thing.
    Isn’t this what we all wanted to see back a couple of years ago?
    Thanks

    There is not much difference between Italy’s bond yields and Spain’s, less than one percent if you take the 10 year bench mark rate. However Italy has huge political problems, opinions are divided, does not even have a government yet after the general election. The uncertainty that creates in markets leads to upward pressure on it’s debt costs. Markets hate uncertainty.

    Spain on the other hand has a stable government but a weaker economy with predictable and poorer longer term prospects.

    There is now a more general political feeling in Europe that austerity is doing more harm than good. The IMF believes so, as does Barrosso. However the markets don’t and if austerity slips debt costs will rise.

    Merkel, Osbourne/Cameron, Rajoy believe in it. They are on the right of the political spectrum. On the left it’s au contraire, except if your name is Silvio Berlusconi. πŸ™‚

  • #84192
    Profile photo of logan
    logan
    Participant

    @Chris McCarthy wrote:

    I didn’t know why Italy’s would be lower than Spain’s was the first thing.
    Isn’t this what we all wanted to see back a couple of years ago?
    Thanks

    There is not much difference between Italy’s bond yields and Spain’s, less than one percent if you take the 10 year bench mark rate. However Italy has huge political problems, opinions are divided, does not even have a government yet after the general election. The uncertainty that creates in markets leads to upward pressure on it’s debt costs. Markets hate uncertainty.

    Spain on the other hand has a stable government but a weaker economy with predictable and poorer longer term prospects.

    There is now a more general political feeling in Europe that austerity is doing more harm than good. The IMF believes so, as does Barrosso. However the markets don’t and if austerity slips debt costs will rise.

    Merkel, Osbourne/Cameron, Rajoy believe in it. They are on the right of the political spectrum. On the left it’s au contraire, except if your name is Silvio Berlusconi. πŸ™‚

  • #84421
    Profile photo of DBMarcos99
    DBMarcos99
    Participant

    Guess which EU country is going to lead growth in exports in 2013 ?

    http://bignews.biz/?id=1308440

  • #84188
    Profile photo of DBMarcos99
    DBMarcos99
    Participant

    Guess which EU country is going to lead growth in exports in 2013 ?

    http://bignews.biz/?id=1308440

  • #84423
    Profile photo of logan
    logan
    Participant

    I wish them luck. πŸ™‚
    Optimistic statements by politicians are not evidence of an improving economy. Spain’s exports are doing fairly well but a countries economy cannot recover with exports alone.

    Until consumer demand recovers Spain will continue to struggle.

  • #84190
    Profile photo of logan
    logan
    Participant

    I wish them luck. πŸ™‚
    Optimistic statements by politicians are not evidence of an improving economy. Spain’s exports are doing fairly well but a countries economy cannot recover with exports alone.

    Until consumer demand recovers Spain will continue to struggle.

  • #84419
    Profile photo of katy
    katy
    Spectator

    The reason bond rates have fallen in Spain and italy is because the ECB have been buying them…quantative easing European style

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-19499950

    A virtual guarantee for investors. There has been some big selling this week.

    http://www.euroinvestor.com/news/2013/04/24/pimco-cuts-spain-italy-government-bond-holdings/12305682

    Merkel had the last word yesterday “Austerity, no it’s just balancing the books”

  • #84186
    Profile photo of katy
    katy
    Spectator

    The reason bond rates have fallen in Spain and italy is because the ECB have been buying them…quantative easing European style

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-19499950

    A virtual guarantee for investors. There has been some big selling this week.

    http://www.euroinvestor.com/news/2013/04/24/pimco-cuts-spain-italy-government-bond-holdings/12305682

    Merkel had the last word yesterday “Austerity, no it’s just balancing the books”

  • #84413
    Profile photo of DBMarcos99
    DBMarcos99
    Participant

    We’ve heard of foreign interest in property increasing in Spain, and also seen major increases in tourism from Russia and other ex-Soviet countries like the Ukraine.
    But the reason behind this is puzzling me. Turkish airlines predict an increase of 20% in flights between Spain and Turkey in 2013
    http://www.hosteltur.com/146750_turkish-airlines-preve-transportar-20-pasajeros-espana-2013.html

    I’ve been told that it’s not more Turkish wanting to visit Spain (let’s face it, they have their own fascinating country and resorts), but that it’s a staging post for links to India and other Asian countries. Which seems barely less plausible. Unless it’s Spanish holidaymakers wanting to fly out to India and Thailand – and again that can’t be right, because we’re told here the economy is too weak. So why the 20% increase?

  • #84180
    Profile photo of DBMarcos99
    DBMarcos99
    Participant

    We’ve heard of foreign interest in property increasing in Spain, and also seen major increases in tourism from Russia and other ex-Soviet countries like the Ukraine.
    But the reason behind this is puzzling me. Turkish airlines predict an increase of 20% in flights between Spain and Turkey in 2013
    http://www.hosteltur.com/146750_turkish-airlines-preve-transportar-20-pasajeros-espana-2013.html

    I’ve been told that it’s not more Turkish wanting to visit Spain (let’s face it, they have their own fascinating country and resorts), but that it’s a staging post for links to India and other Asian countries. Which seems barely less plausible. Unless it’s Spanish holidaymakers wanting to fly out to India and Thailand – and again that can’t be right, because we’re told here the economy is too weak. So why the 20% increase?

  • #84405
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    Ukraine and some of the old eastern bloc is really simple to answer. Their consumers have been starved of places to go for to go on vaccation for long and their pay checks and currencies have also strengthened over time. Imagine being a a 20s something girl with a job in Ukraine having been told time and time again that you wont be allowed to travel by your own nation because they either suspect you of being a prostitute or just that you are going to marry the first best man they run into when they get there. To travel you need to deposit around a year in wages in deposit to a bureaucrat. Rents in Kiev is almost as high as in Spain for buildings that a european drugg adict wouldnt set their foot in. Corruption is at such extreme levels that priests, police officers and bureaucrats drive around in luxury cars not even sellable in the richest countries on earth. Our problems cant even compare to the shit these hard working people have to put up with. They hardly even complain because things have been getting better and they know not to dream to much. When now some gets to see the world they will throw themselves at the chance. A few years ago Turkey and Cyprus was the only alernative because of treaties. Air Travel by ukrainian companies are considered to be the most dangerous in the world and many countries air fields dont even allow them to land there or to refuel.

    Turkey has become a richer nation and turks/kurds are found all over europe as immigrants. As long as you have done your military service or paid your way out of it “not bribes but a fine sort off” and dont make to much fuzz about your kurdish heritage you are basicly free to come and go as you want as long as your destination country dont mind. Very business oriented and cheap labour costs. Spain has become cheaper for turks and I might also guess that lots of passengers will come from example ukraine through turkey. All is not rosy but turkey is a much freer country than for example belarus and ukraine. Their economy has been doing much better than most of europe for a long time.

  • #84172
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    Ukraine and some of the old eastern bloc is really simple to answer. Their consumers have been starved of places to go for to go on vaccation for long and their pay checks and currencies have also strengthened over time. Imagine being a a 20s something girl with a job in Ukraine having been told time and time again that you wont be allowed to travel by your own nation because they either suspect you of being a prostitute or just that you are going to marry the first best man they run into when they get there. To travel you need to deposit around a year in wages in deposit to a bureaucrat. Rents in Kiev is almost as high as in Spain for buildings that a european drugg adict wouldnt set their foot in. Corruption is at such extreme levels that priests, police officers and bureaucrats drive around in luxury cars not even sellable in the richest countries on earth. Our problems cant even compare to the shit these hard working people have to put up with. They hardly even complain because things have been getting better and they know not to dream to much. When now some gets to see the world they will throw themselves at the chance. A few years ago Turkey and Cyprus was the only alernative because of treaties. Air Travel by ukrainian companies are considered to be the most dangerous in the world and many countries air fields dont even allow them to land there or to refuel.

    Turkey has become a richer nation and turks/kurds are found all over europe as immigrants. As long as you have done your military service or paid your way out of it “not bribes but a fine sort off” and dont make to much fuzz about your kurdish heritage you are basicly free to come and go as you want as long as your destination country dont mind. Very business oriented and cheap labour costs. Spain has become cheaper for turks and I might also guess that lots of passengers will come from example ukraine through turkey. All is not rosy but turkey is a much freer country than for example belarus and ukraine. Their economy has been doing much better than most of europe for a long time.

  • #84401
    Profile photo of logan
    logan
    Participant

    As expected the unemployment rate in Spain rose to 27.2% of the workforce last quarter.
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-22290422

    It will be interesting to see if Rajoy announces any changes to austerity tomorrow as he unveils his fiscal plans. My best guess it will be more of the same and the usual promises of jam tomorrow.

  • #84168
    Profile photo of logan
    logan
    Participant

    As expected the unemployment rate in Spain rose to 27.2% of the workforce last quarter.
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-22290422

    It will be interesting to see if Rajoy announces any changes to austerity tomorrow as he unveils his fiscal plans. My best guess it will be more of the same and the usual promises of jam tomorrow.

  • #84043
    Profile photo of logan
    logan
    Participant

    http://elpais.com/elpais/2013/04/26/inenglish/1366982359_002518.html
    http://uk.reuters.com/article/2012/08/27/uk-spain-gdp-revision-idUKBRE87Q0HD20120827

    The media are now reporting what has been said by some of us on here for some time that the Spanish economy is in a worse state than previously thought.

    The predictions of a worsening situation will depress the property market even further. A few Russians buying bank property will not a market make. πŸ™

  • #84207
    Profile photo of logan
    logan
    Participant

    http://elpais.com/elpais/2013/04/26/inenglish/1366982359_002518.html
    http://uk.reuters.com/article/2012/08/27/uk-spain-gdp-revision-idUKBRE87Q0HD20120827

    The media are now reporting what has been said by some of us on here for some time that the Spanish economy is in a worse state than previously thought.

    The predictions of a worsening situation will depress the property market even further. A few Russians buying bank property will not a market make. πŸ™

  • #84037
    Profile photo of DBMarcos99
    DBMarcos99
    Participant

    Someone should tell Warren Buffett, Anuncio Ortega, Carlos Slim, and now Micheal Forbes – some of the world’s richest men, investing in Spain.
    Or perhaps tell all those car companies increasing production.
    Or the venture finds investing in these startups, just in the last few days:
    – @3scale: €4,2m – @Marfeel: €1,6m – @Womenalia: €1m – @MashMeTV: €0,5m
    Or tell Turkish airlines, they are wrong to increase flights by 20% to Spain.
    Or tell those Russian/ex soviet operators, doubling weekly flights by 100 to 200 this summer.
    I wonder why CapGem are expanding and hiring in Asturias? Why Jazztel are investing so much in Barcelona? Or why Amazon is expanding their logistics centre near Madrid?
    —-
    Of course no one is suggesting house prices are set to soar. And given low rents, it really doesn’t make sense to rush into a purchase. But the government is still stating growth will resume by 2014. I believe them – let’s see if this happens? Not far away now!

  • #84195
    Profile photo of DBMarcos99
    DBMarcos99
    Participant

    Someone should tell Warren Buffett, Anuncio Ortega, Carlos Slim, and now Micheal Forbes – some of the world’s richest men, investing in Spain.
    Or perhaps tell all those car companies increasing production.
    Or the venture finds investing in these startups, just in the last few days:
    – @3scale: €4,2m – @Marfeel: €1,6m – @Womenalia: €1m – @MashMeTV: €0,5m
    Or tell Turkish airlines, they are wrong to increase flights by 20% to Spain.
    Or tell those Russian/ex soviet operators, doubling weekly flights by 100 to 200 this summer.
    I wonder why CapGem are expanding and hiring in Asturias? Why Jazztel are investing so much in Barcelona? Or why Amazon is expanding their logistics centre near Madrid?
    —-
    Of course no one is suggesting house prices are set to soar. And given low rents, it really doesn’t make sense to rush into a purchase. But the government is still stating growth will resume by 2014. I believe them – let’s see if this happens? Not far away now!

  • #84035
    Profile photo of katy
    katy
    Spectator

    …and the Spanish Government are still predicting that unemployment won’t drop below 25% until 2016 😯 You should send those twittarses to Rajoy and cheer him up πŸ˜† πŸ˜†

  • #84191
    Profile photo of katy
    katy
    Spectator

    …and the Spanish Government are still predicting that unemployment won’t drop below 25% until 2016 😯 You should send those twittarses to Rajoy and cheer him up πŸ˜† πŸ˜†

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