Spain bouncing back as always…

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  • #55537
    Profile photo of Chris McCarthy
    Chris McCarthy
    Participant

    OK here is one for you all to chew over.

    Yesterday’s Times in the Business Section from the Property Correspondent.

    Britons return to sun, sea, sand and Spain

    http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/construction_and_property/article7093736.ece

    This is also what I am seeing on my recent visits, this is what I think will happen in the future, that we have been through 5 years of hell, long before the worldwide economic crisis and now; prime areas such as Marbella are bouncing back, as they always have, and always will.

    You can say whatever you like about the past, but in the future, Marbella has it all, for those that want to be part of it all, if you don’t agree then I am fine with that, but for the many, the very many, the fact is – there has never been a better time to buy – and I rather agree with this correspondent.

    Am sure one or two will not though…!

  • #97876
    Profile photo of petej
    petej
    Participant

    Not sure I would be that upbeat, hope the facts in the article are better researched than their geography, Alicante is on the Costa Blanca not the Costa Brava!

  • #97877
    Profile photo of katy
    katy
    Spectator

    Chris surely you could do better than quote that piece of “churnalism”. Cobbled together from various press releases of Taylor Wimpy. It was also in Diario sur last week, even they stated it was an “informe” from the developer. Los Arqueros isn’t a great location or a good golf course.

    I have a better one here although you will have to google the translation. It sounds very positive for Marbella. Naturally I am sceptical but at least it is not from a developer! If it’s true then it must be one of the fastest turn arounds ever. Some of these small agents who claim to be selling 4-8 properties a month ought to be driving around in Bentleys instead of old bangers 😆

    http://www.diariosur.es/v/20100407/marbella/marbella-vuelve-vender-pisos-20100407.html

    (Marbella is selling apartments again)

  • #97879
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    Let’s not get too excited. I suspect that Taylor Wimpey always over egg their puddings. I am pleased if a recovery is taking place but forgive me for being a bit sceptical. They are up to the same thing in parts of UK – lots of viewers – but not many completed sales! 🙄

  • #97882
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    Just come back from the Canaries. Definitely busier on the streets with tourists than any time in the last 4 years. Several empty shops have reopened. Three properties I have been tracking have sold in the last couple of months 😕 .

  • #97884
    Profile photo of peterhun
    peterhun
    Participant

    I wonder where the money will come from, given the lack of mortgage/debt finance.

    There maybe a few houses sold here and there, but the fundamentals of a massive oversupply, terrible exchange rate and the disappearance of the main source of finance are not going to go away in years.

  • #97885
    Profile photo of Chris McCarthy
    Chris McCarthy
    Participant

    Well don’t shoot the messenger.

    Thanks Katy also for showing the Diario Sur article which shows Marbella property sales shooting up by what 300% and even more than the same period going back to 2006/8/9.

    My point is, that it has been down soooooo long, that at some point it has to come back up. It always has to, and if the exchange rate improves over the next 6 months it will gather even more momentum.

    The issues that almost all other areas have, being massive over build, lamentable quality, locations with poor infrastructure and undesirable location are just not prevalent in and around Marbella, they are in fact the exception.

    As for mortgages to buy etc. well between 1989 – 2001 we almost never heard of anyone ask us for a mortgage, people could afford to buy and came with their funds in place usually, it was only the boom and the easy credit that brought about the worldwide crisis that brought the notion of a mortgage into play.

    Nobody even thought of applying to a Spanish bank for mortgage before that time, and even then, most people were simply releasing equity in the UK for deposits and relying on the builders mortgage for purchase in the boom. It was certainly not your stereotypical purchaser.

    But the boom is looooong gone, now we have today and tomorrow, am sorry for those who predict and want the area to fulfil their morbid doom laden protestations that the area is dead and finished for the next 20 years it just plain isn’t, the investment, infrastructure and development is over 50 years not 5 years as Bansko Bulgaria, in fact it will move forward, go and grow again for all the very many positive and exciting reasons, that a whole range of new buyers and residents will bring forward.

    It isn’t going to happen overnight, but it has been happening all across last year, people and businesses have been surviving there just like the UK the devastation of the crisis, now… new vistas and potential opens up, people get a bit more heart, people see a different future, and the turnaround comes.

    I don’t want boom, I want gradual growth, I don’t want agents touting all sorts of rubbish purchases and easy mortgages, I want quality and delivery, and it would be nice to see this forum really help and play a part in that going forward.

    It was never going to be over for the area, for 101 reasons, be good to see this forum recognise that – which it often does without any help from me – and ensure that the sharp, and malpractice of some years ago does not repeat itself.

  • #97886
    Profile photo of logan
    logan
    Participant

    The type of so called journalism quoted in this post is simply advertising by another name. It’s a con trick designed to make you believe serious journalism still exists. It happens like this. The Times approaches the quoted companies with an offer to quote their developments or company name ebbed in the so called ‘story’. The company pays a levy to have themselves included.
    Of course it’s not a story at all, just words filling up space in newspaper supplements masquerading as serious news when its actually advertising.
    Do not believe a word of it. Desperate times leads to desperate measures.

  • #97887
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    Chris,
    Cant speak for CDS but I have just completed on a property in inland Almeria where the properties are slowly starting to show signs of limited sales.
    We have watched the property prices dropping and feel that if sellers are realistic in considering offers then sales are possible.
    A 345 euro property has just sold for 200 which was one we looked at but not the one purchased.
    There are still those who have the money to fund a lifestyle choice and its these that are responsible for most of the purchases.
    Spain is still not a place to invest in for capital growth IMO but still has much to offer those who have the necessary funds to enjoy a good standard of living.
    We are looking forward to finalising things here in UK and hope to make the move Aug/Sept.
    Im not sure when the holiday home brigade will consider the economy will be stable enough to invest.
    But retiring to the sun and a peaceful future still attracts many.
    Im with you Chris, this forum should be encouraging people to make the move guided by fair, honest and capable professionals. (There are still many who have weathered the storm as a result) and these should be commended and encouraged to champion the move to a fair and open property market.
    I had a good agent who on a number of properties advised us (this property is not for you) saving us valuable time.
    The agent was well aware of our requirements and was extremely helpful and patient during our three year search.
    Wont advertise for them but happy to answer any PMs.
    Quite a few sales but not holiday type apartments.

  • #97890
    Profile photo of angie
    angie
    Spectator

    Funny how you popped back in again Chris following what looks like a positive bit of news! 🙂

    Even without my few pence worth, I think most have already said it here already, jounalistic licence by a firm of Developers Taylor Wimpy (well they would talk a dire market up) on an unattractive development that resembles a crater in the sun.

    Been there, seen it several times, couldn’t wait to get out, Los Arqueros.

    Anyone who thinks Spanish property is on the up is wishfully thinking methinks, vast numbers of unsold properties still to be taken up and even the price reductions don’t make up for the dreadful exchange rate for Brits plus the exhorbitant completion costs putting most buyeres immediately into negative equity should they want to resell.

    However, if I was in your shoes as an agent or developer I’d probably be trying to talk the market up too. 🙂

  • #97892
    Profile photo of logan
    logan
    Participant

    I have recently returned from viewing some developments repossessed by a group of banks. They have been trying to sell them off individually at 60% of their original price and 80% of current bank valuations. These banks are offering 100% mortgages over 40 even 50 years and taxes paid to the mortgage. Some will even allow you buy, move in and pay nothing for 3 years! Still no takers on quite well planned coastal developments. Insiders tell me the market remains dead as the Dodo and has further scope for falls along most of the Spanish coasts over the medium term.
    I think we who have a good grasp of Spanish market conditions should speak out against the dishonest ”sexing up’ of the market designed to entrap the gullible.

  • #97894
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    How to make sense of the figures from Marbella’s tax office showing home sales exploded in the first quarter?

    Marbella property market recovers in Q1

    I can’t write them off as dodgy because I don’t have any hard evidence to the contrary. But I find them very difficult to believe. My sources tell me that sales are happening here and there, but nothing like the blast off these figures describe.

    And as one person pointed out to me, banks still aren’t lending in Marbella, at least not on anything built in the last 10 years.

    So how to explain these figures? An accurate picture? A mistake? A one-off distortion with some plausible cause? Political tampering? Any ideas?

    Chris is right that the Costa del Sol, or at least the Marbella area will recover sooner or later. I’m already starting to hear of new, non-real estate business moving in. But that doesn’t explain these figures, so what does?

    Mark

  • #97897
    Profile photo of Fuengi (Andrew)
    Fuengi (Andrew)
    Participant

    Hi Mark,

    could you clarify? these people you spoke to send no bank are lending in Marbella?

    I must admit it seems like a different world.
    Bankinter offered one client 80% mortgages.
    Solbank is giving one of our clients a 70% mortgage on an 850.000€ villa
    Unicaja has confirmed (pre.valation) to give 80% on a property on Mijas Costa at 155.000€

  • #97898
    Profile photo of Fuengi (Andrew)
    Fuengi (Andrew)
    Participant

    @mark wrote:

    So how to explain these figures? An accurate picture? A mistake? A one-off distortion with some plausible cause? Political tampering? Any ideas?

    How many do you htink are properties that have been held up from completion due to some irregularity?

  • #97899
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    Not zero bank lending, but still difficult to get a mortgage, especially if there are any doubts about legality (due to get easier after new PGOU comes into force). That’s what I’m told. The point is that if it is still difficult to get a mortgage, it’s difficult to believe that sales have exploded (where is all the money coming from?).

  • #97900
    Profile photo of katy
    katy
    Spectator

    I find it difficult to believe too except they come from an official source 😐 I remember reading an article of other transactions that are counted eg. inheritances, so they could be other factors. We left first week of February and the (genuine) people I know said things were dire.

    As for banks lending, our buyer, a relative had to jump through hoops. He is an eye consultant and his wife a physiotherapist and a Spanish national. Also a large deposit from an apartment sale in Madrid. Even when the loan was agreed they would not allow completion in January as the bank said it needed to go through the books for February 🙄

  • #97906
    Profile photo of Chris McCarthy
    Chris McCarthy
    Participant

    @logan wrote:

    The type of so called journalism quoted in this post is simply advertising by another name. It’s a con trick designed to make you believe serious journalism still exists. It happens like this. The Times approaches the quoted companies with an offer to quote their developments or company name ebbed in the so called ‘story’. The company pays a levy to have themselves included.

    Nope sorry Logan, I can’t quite buy that…

    A major UK Plc, pays a levy for favourable story in the Times, am sure the Property Correspondent would have a few words to say to you on that one hey!

    The Times involved in “con tricks” and what Taylor Wimpey have not made the sales and the progress they say they have, they lying just to con a few more people into buying?

    Well the world is seriously screwed up if that is the case Logan.

    Or could just be they reporting the facts, this is not some massive tidal wave of success here, just reporting what many people know, that more and more people are at long last buying again, and in and around Marbella that just’s great to know and to hear, and to actually see reported.

    Don’t shoot the messenger and hey don’t accuse the Times and Taylor Wimpey of being lying con merchants either, I don’t think there is any amount of levy that would make that worthwhile really.

  • #97907
    Profile photo of Chris McCarthy
    Chris McCarthy
    Participant

    @angie wrote:

    Funny how you popped back in again Chris following what looks like a positive bit of news! 🙂

    Well am hardly going to pop back in with anything negative now am I Angie…?

    I think you got the buckets load of negativity to throw in any event.

    But is anyone out there listening to you still? Or have they learned enough and are buying despite you? It is going to happen one day, sure as eggs is eggs, one day your arguments and position will be old hat, goodness knows, have had to learn to live with the same myself over the past few years as I thought things would turn around, would stabalise, would bounce back, all before the enormity of the crash of course, but since then I got humble pie all down my bib.

    People are enquiring, the economy is recovering, Britain will outstrip the Eurozone in growth after this and the last quarter, and we be in the land of the positive again.

    Amen to that.

  • #97908
    Profile photo of katy
    katy
    Spectator

    I am with Logan on the Taylor-Wimpey stuff. No suprise that they have been churning out press releases for a couple of months. Who would buy them anyway, they aren’t good value!

    Notice another “spokesperson” in the article is Savills. A company who advertises weekly with the Times 🙄 Another newspaper who does this is the Telegraph. I really think that people who read these articles are a bit more savvy nowadays.

    Plus all the myth about prices dropping, a peek at any agents website will show they haven’t dropped to a realistic price to tempt buyers.

    I do agree that Marbella will be the first area to be out of recession

  • #97909
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    Logan

    In feb 2009 you said

    I am expecting a number of Spanish banks to fail in the coming months. In fact it is rather surprising so many are still in business. However the ECB have been instrumental in propping many of them up in a slightly clandestine manner over the last year..
    There was a very good article in the Telegraph which exposed this some weeks ago. I will send anyone a copy if you PM me.
    The Spanish government are desperate to retain international confidence in Spain’s ability to deal with the severe effects of the downturn. Money on deposit in Spain is probably as safe as anywhere else right now.logan

    You were out with banks last week and the Telegraph wrote a good article back then!

    No, things are improving every day here on the CDS, just wait until we get the visitor numbers for easter, they will exceed expectations even though some will still say the place is deserted.
    S

  • #97910
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    I always feel a bit uneasy when people talk of Marbella being representative of Spain, whether discussing house values or town hall corruption or anything at all to do with Spain in the wider sense.

    It started off as an enclave for rich people and soon attracted all the undesirables trying to feed off them. When it reached saturation level, after spreading out and destroying what was an attractive landscape, central government intervened and large numbers of assorted crooks and chancers either left, or went to prison.

    But the optimistic commentator is right, a new wave of people will return when memories fade, the name itself will guarantee that, and some attractive scenery still remains and more might be freed if the Junta does carry out its promise to demolish illegal builds, if that is feasible.

    But it will remain a tiny, notorious part of Spain, not at all representative of the rest of it.

  • #97912
    Profile photo of logan
    logan
    Participant

    It is very easy to get a mortgage if the bank already owns the thing! They currently own huge amounts of property all over Spain and are unlikely to lend on anything which they don’t have a stake in.

  • #97913
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    Mark,

    I have to say that I find those figures hard to believe. They fly in the face of pretty well everything I am hearing or reading including the latest Tinsa figures published today. The only thing I can think of is that rather than these being individual sales a couple of large developments may have changed hands thus boosting the numbers.

    As we well know, official figures have long been laughable in Spain.

  • #97914
    Profile photo of logan
    logan
    Participant

    @Chris McCarthy wrote:

    Well the world is seriously screwed up if that is the case Logan.
    l[/quote]

    I cannot quite believe you are that naive Chris. Have you spent some time in the modern marketing world recently? It’s a dog fight as newspapers fight the web and the decline of their industry. Don’t tell me you believe the inhabitants of Canary Wharf have scruples!
    If I believed Spain was bouncing back as you named it I would invest. Investment decisions are based on a prospect of five years consitant growth. That growth has to cover the huge tax liabilities Spain currently has in place. Serious investors will not return until the real signs of an upturn happen. This quoted clap trap will convince no one.

  • #97915
    Profile photo of peterhun
    peterhun
    Participant

    @Chris McCarthy wrote:

    @angie wrote:
    Funny how you popped back in again Chris following what looks like a positive bit of news! 🙂

    Well am hardly going to pop back in with anything negative now am I Angie…?

    I think you got the buckets load of negativity to throw in any event.

    But is anyone out there listening to you still? Or have they learned enough and are buying despite you? It is going to happen one day, sure as eggs is eggs, one day your arguments and position will be old hat, goodness knows, have had to learn to live with the same myself over the past few years as I thought things would turn around, would stabalise, would bounce back, all before the enormity of the crash of course, but since then I got humble pie all down my bib.

    People are enquiring, the economy is recovering, Britain will outstrip the Eurozone in growth after this and the last quarter, and we be in the land of the positive again.

    Amen to that.

    Even if I believed you, which I don’t becuase you admit you are post the news you need to hear, its no going to overcome the fact that property prices in Spain are far above anything even someone earning twice the UK average (like myself) could afford. Even if those apartments were located where the high paying jobs are. Nevermind the fact that I’d need at least an 20% deposit and assuming that I was spending nothing on UK property.

    The exchange rate is dire, BTW.

    The only sustainable source of buyers will be retiree’s. UK’s economy is going to be screwed for a decade at least and taxes are going up. Growth will be terrible. House prices will stagnate or fall in real terms.

    Keep praying.

  • #97917
    Profile photo of logan
    logan
    Participant

    @brianc_li wrote:

    I a couple of large developments may have changed hands thus boosting the numbers.
    As we well know, official figures have long been laughable in Spain.

    That is the best explanation or perhaps justification for the figures. As banks attempt to consolidate their losses. Developments are changing from old insolvent company to a bright shiny new one financed by another bank or group of banks. Polaris World are doing something similar. Since insolvent companies cannot legally trade it become a necessary option. On paper these transactions will show multiple units of property sales and confuse the statistics if you believe them or foolish enough to take any notice. Green shoots they are not.
    On the bank failure subject, some banks have failed in Spain. Most have continued to receive large financial support from the ECB. That is going to end soon as the ECB tightens and increases the liquidity rules for banks within the Eurozone. As a consequence and currently the banks are desperately trying to off load their properties to anyone who will buy them in order to improve their liquidity status.
    However since the market has further to fall in the next few months/years few investors with half a brain will risk a punt.

  • #97922
    Profile photo of Chris McCarthy
    Chris McCarthy
    Participant

    Please remember I am not talking about tens of thousands of people looking to buy. I am not expecting some Klondike gold rush to the Costa’s, I am not even talking about investments, set against tax losses, set against price falls, set against all manner of other equations to prove the negative point.

    I am not announcing boom glorious boom, just the fact that, Marbella particularly is – with its admittedly tarnished name – is bouncing back, and that a turnaround is happening.

    And no I don’t subscribe to a conspiracy theory in Canary Wharf or a naivety as to the way things work between national press and Plc Britain, we who know a thing or two about the front line, and yes of course that is also we who have a vested interest through long term commitment and experience of very good times and seriously bad, are simply saying that people are buying, in ever increasing numbers with ever increasing activity.

    I believe it will last, and be consistent, but I could very well be wrong, but those of you who determinedly hold to exchange rates, interest rates, price falls, overbuild, overvalue, bank failure, government corruption and the rest may very well be right also.. the world could fall apart.

    However all the above was true in the late 80’s early 90’s when I arrived in Spain, in fact you could copy articles from that period to today and see no difference except the date of the piece, but lo, the wind shifted, the tide changed and so did the vista as people came to buy for all their own reasons rather than yours.

  • #97923
    Profile photo of logan
    logan
    Participant

    @Chris McCarthy wrote:

    However all the above was true in the late 80’s early 90’s when I arrived in Spain, in fact you could copy articles from that period to today and see no difference except the date of the piece, but lo, the wind shifted, the tide changed and so did the vista as people came to buy for all their won reasons rather than yours.

    I was around in Spain during the periods you quote with a rather large property portfolio. I was hit hard and liquidated when things recovered. The two major recessions then were not the same animal as today. I won’t bore you with the differences but it’s like comparing chalk with cheese. Spain and the market was a very different place back then.
    The current global recession is the worst since the depression of the nineteen thirties. Then the economic down turn really persisted until the USA entered World War 2 when manufacturing pulled America out. Arms and war bonds got the markets moving. Now it’s optimism and phony statistics. Equity markets are currently riding along on such a cocktail. I accept that markets are not the same now. That is why I do believe recovery will start in late 2011/12. Spain IMO will be the last G8 country to return to growth. Property market will slowly follow as banks sell off cheaply. Not until lending returns to normal levels will we see significant improvement. Even then little or no capital growth will follow, maybe 5%. Then inflation will likely wipe that out.
    Currently no bank will lend on a property or development in which they don’t have a stake. Would you at Euribor +0,90%? Perhaps a bank who has not been hit but I don’t know any.
    If being optimistic gets you through the day Chris then fine. Best of luck. I’m keeping my powder dry.

  • #97924
    Profile photo of angie
    angie
    Spectator

    Both peterhun and logan make posts as it is in Spain, and, Chris is potentially right by saying that one day things will or might pick up but certainly not to previous levels, Marbella may always attract those with bling as well.

    As an agent, Fuengi seems to post more realistic sense of what is happening.

    However, the truth is that anyone buying now with 11% completion costs as well as the agent’s built in commission will have to market their property if they wish with an uplift of 20% just to break even, I’ve said it before, the majority of buyers will be left in negative equity once they complete and this could take years to clear.

    Then of course what happens to the 1.5 million unsold properties still hanging around, who will buy all of these and when?

  • #97926
    Profile photo of Chris McCarthy
    Chris McCarthy
    Participant

    @logan wrote:

    @Chris McCarthy wrote:
    Currently no bank will lend on a property or development in which they don’t have a stake. Would you at Euribor +0,90%? Perhaps a bank who has not been hit but I don’t know any.
    If being optimistic gets you through the day Chris then fine. Best of luck. I’m keeping my powder dry.

    I think everyone with any doubt whatsoever should certainly keep their powder totally dry. I also would not advise anyone to buy purely on an investment basis, not now, not ever really.

    I do however recall that Fuengi advised on this or another thread that he had several experiences of banks lending recently and I too have several also, so it is not true – that if you fit the criteria then banks are not lending – they are.

    People should only buy if it is right for them personally, that they can afford to do so, it suits their lifestyle choice or use, and most particularly if they feel the price is right for them now.

    And, there are plenty of those people around it seems, and I predict for Marbella and its surrounds that number will increase now and continue to do so, hopefully in sensible numbers over a much more stable period than the last few years.

    And that everyone will be a lot happier too, let’s remember sometimes that there is much more to owning a home in Spain than purely financial investment, and that over the long term, even that proves worthwhile if one sells at the optimum point, the main reason to purchase is for sheer joy of use and fulfillment.

  • #97933
    Profile photo of besj
    besj
    Participant

    @Chris McCarthy wrote:

    @logan wrote:
    @Chris McCarthy wrote:
    Currently no bank will lend on a property or development in which they don’t have a stake. Would you at Euribor +0,90%? Perhaps a bank who has not been hit but I don’t know any.
    If being optimistic gets you through the day Chris then fine. Best of luck. I’m keeping my powder dry.

    I think everyone with any doubt whatsoever should certainly keep their powder totally dry. I also would not advise anyone to buy purely on an investment basis, not now, not ever really.

    I do however recall that Fuengi advised on this or another thread that he had several experiences of banks lending recently and I too have several also, so it is not true – that if you fit the criteria then banks are not lending – they are.

    People should only buy if it is right for them personally, that they can afford to do so, it suits their lifestyle choice or use, and most particularly if they feel the price is right for them now.

    And, there are plenty of those people around it seems, and I predict for Marbella and its surrounds that number will increase now and continue to do so, hopefully in sensible numbers over a much more stable period than the last few years.

    And that everyone will be a lot happier too, let’s remember sometimes that there is much more to owning a home in Spain than purely financial investment, and that over the long term, even that proves worthwhile if one sells at the optimum point, the main reason to purchase is for sheer joy of use and fulfillment.

    I can really agree to this. This is precisely the reason we decided to buy now in Spain. Not as an investment but for enjoyment and the possibility to really make it your own second home…

  • #97935
    Profile photo of peterhun
    peterhun
    Participant

    I can really agree to this. This is precisely the reason we decided to buy now in Spain. Not as an investment but for enjoyment and the possibility to really make it your own second home…

    Well good for you, but you are in the minority of people who can afford to to throw money away for a life style choice. With the high prices in Spain it certainly isn’t a good investment and its doesn’t make sense to buy when you can rent.

  • #97938
    Profile photo of Chris McCarthy
    Chris McCarthy
    Participant

    @peterhun wrote:

    Well good for you, but you are in the minority of people who can afford to to throw money away for a life style choice. With the high prices in Spain it certainly isn’t a good investment and its doesn’t make sense to buy when you can rent.

    A tad disingenuous don’t you think – assuming that one person’s choice is them throwing their money away on a lifestyle choice.

    I wonder Peterhun, what car do you drive?

    Would another person, less fortunate than you owning a lesser value or more ordinary car perhaps believe that you had indeed thrown your own money away on that for a lifestyle choice? Why have car when you can use public transport I wonder?

    Is your car a good investment?

    Please also don’t simply assume that there is no property that is a potentially good investment in Marbella or Spain right now, there are many potentially excellent investments, and the world doesn’t stop because you say it should, that’s not what makes the world go around.

    It is the people with optimism, hope and belief in themselves and their potential that make the world a better place, it is their drive and desire to improve their lot and reward themselves for doing so that makes the world go around, not those who simply say freeze and do nothing, what was the well worn Warren Buffet phrase that has been used here before “Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful” might not that apply at this or some near point?

    Or what else did dear old Warren say… something about not following the sheep, going into a market where everyone is, because by then it is already clearly too late.

    Just because a poster says he has made his choice and bought, I don’t think it is fair for you to simply denounce him or her for being an idiot who has thrown their money away.

    Again, perhaps you might want to sell your car and take up public transport and cloth yourself in sackcloth and ashes if that is how we are all going to proceed.

  • #97941
    Profile photo of besj
    besj
    Participant

    @peterhun wrote:

    I can really agree to this. This is precisely the reason we decided to buy now in Spain. Not as an investment but for enjoyment and the possibility to really make it your own second home…

    Well good for you, but you are in the minority of people who can afford to to throw money away for a life style choice. With the high prices in Spain it certainly isn’t a good investment and its doesn’t make sense to buy when you can rent.

    Well, I could also live on bread and water and invest my hard earned money in financial instruments or maybe invest them in fast cars, women and wine (and waste the rest a la George Best), “invest” them in smoking (as a large part f the poulation does) etc…
    I am quite a careful person when it comes to my finances, and I do know how to calculate. So I know that if I would like to sell my apartment tomorrow I would make quite a big loss. I would not be happy to see that happen, but I could handle it. Also I know how much extra this hobby is costing me per year and I sincerely think it is worth it.
    Compared to renting another apartment for three weeks in the summer and three more times per year, adding renting it out to a few friends for a couple of weeks the cost is not that huge, much less than owning a horse for hobby… The big risk would be a forced sale, but I am quite convinced that I will keep this for more than 20 years…

  • #97943
    Profile photo of logan
    logan
    Participant

    Holiday homes are a huge expensive indulgence and completely pointless unless you are super rich for the following reasons:-
    12% to 13% buying costs. High mortgage costs if you take one. High community maintenance costs rising annually. High depreciation on capital that could be used for growth elsewhere. Costs to have it supervised by letting agent. Travel costs including car hire every time you use it. Capital gains costs (assuming there is any). High inheritance tax costs in Spain (even between spouses) Standing charges annually for utilities. Having to return to the same place year in year out just because you have to. No, you will not cover your expenses by renting it out despite what the agent will tell you.
    I read people justify having a holiday home because they have an emotional need to own something. I don’t understand why it’s necessary to own anything in order to take holiday. Surely that’s the point. A holiday is by definition just that. An escape, a different experience away from the norms of life.
    With the net costs of your holiday home you could annually visit a five star resort anywhere round the world for the rest of your life. Beats me why folks do it. Perhaps the emotional decision usually taken whilst actually taking a holiday addles the brain. 🙂

  • #97944
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    @logan wrote:

    Holiday homes are a huge expensive indulgence and completely pointless unless you are super rich for the following reasons:-
    12% to 13% buying costs. High mortgage costs if you take one. High community maintenance costs rising annually. High depreciation on capital that could be used for growth elsewhere. Costs to have it supervised by letting agent. Travel costs including car hire every time you use it. Capital gains costs (assuming there is any). High inheritance tax costs in Spain (even between spouses) Standing charges annually for utilities. Having to return to the same place year in year out just because you have to. No, you will not cover your expenses by renting it out despite what the agent will tell you.
    I read people justify having a holiday home because they have an emotional need to own something. I don’t understand why it’s necessary to own anything in order to take holiday. Surely that’s the point. A holiday is by definition just that. An escape, a different experience away from the norms of life.
    With the net costs of your holiday home you could annually visit a five star resort anywhere round the world for the rest of your life. Beats me why folks do it. Perhaps the emotional decision usually taken whilst actually taking a holiday addles the brain. 🙂

    Buying any property or indeed any luxury item (any item you cant afford is a luxury) is a huge gamble, however spending your money is a very personal thing which is influenced by many factors.
    Our family background etc etc some of us were born during the war and the subsequent rationing of very basic items of food and clothing have had a huge impact on our outlook in respect of posessions. We were raised in an era where it was frowned on to have credit. You saved hard for an item and bought it.
    None of my family ever owned a car for large parts of their life, never owned a house or travelled far from their birth place.
    I have had a good life from leaving school at 15 with no qualifications to being priviledged to have enjoyed a rewarding career, travelled extensively, raised a family and retired with a comfortable income.
    Along the way I have by your account sqandered vast amounts of money on childrens ponies, racing motorbikes and cars, holiday home, ever increasingly large and expensive homes.
    But still I consider that I am financially astute with my investments being considered to be cautious medium risk.
    My recent purchase in Spain is purely for lifestyle and having said that we have bought at the bottom? of the market and consider that to be cautious.
    I couldhave had none of these things and be no better off, remember we all have choices in life.
    Enjoy your family, enjoy your money and enjoy life, who wants to be the richest man in the graveyard.

  • #97949
    Profile photo of logan
    logan
    Participant

    @vilprano wrote:

    Enjoy your family, enjoy your money and enjoy life, who wants to be the richest man in the graveyard.

    I agree no one unless you want to see your family well provided for. 🙂
    You have missed my point really Vilprano I was suggesting the fashion or lemming like tendency for holiday homes in Spain in the last thirty years is not all that it’s cracked up to be. I believe that market has now reached a natural end in Spain as people seek to travel further and wider for a richer experience.
    Improved value for money especially in these difficult times surely must be a worthy aspiration.

  • #97952
    Profile photo of peterhun
    peterhun
    Participant

    @Chris McCarthy wrote:

    @peterhun wrote:
    Well good for you, but you are in the minority of people who can afford to to throw money away for a life style choice. With the high prices in Spain it certainly isn’t a good investment and its doesn’t make sense to buy when you can rent.

    A tad disingenuous don’t you think – assuming that one person’s choice is them throwing their money away on a lifestyle choice.

    I wonder Peterhun, what car do you drive?

    Would another person, less fortunate than you owning a lesser value or more ordinary car perhaps believe that you had indeed thrown your own money away on that for a lifestyle choice? Why have car when you can use public transport I wonder?

    Is your car a good investment?

    Please also don’t simply assume that there is no property that is a potentially good investment in Marbella or Spain right now, there are many potentially excellent investments, and the world doesn’t stop because you say it should, that’s not what makes the world go around.

    It is the people with optimism, hope and belief in themselves and their potential that make the world a better place, it is their drive and desire to improve their lot and reward themselves for doing so that makes the world go around, not those who simply say freeze and do nothing, what was the well worn Warren Buffet phrase that has been used here before “Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful” might not that apply at this or some near point?

    Or what else did dear old Warren say… something about not following the sheep, going into a market where everyone is, because by then it is already clearly too late.

    Just because a poster says he has made his choice and bought, I don’t think it is fair for you to simply denounce him or her for being an idiot who has thrown their money away.

    Again, perhaps you might want to sell your car and take up public transport and cloth yourself in sackcloth and ashes if that is how we are all going to proceed.

    I don’t have a car. Never had one either, I passed my motorcycle test twenty years ago and have never passed my car test. I don’t need one so it would have been a very bad investment in time and money, living in London it saved me a large portion of my waking hours travelling by bike rather than a car. When I needed a car I hired a taxi or van. Now, I need a car, and it will be an old Discovery for me.

    You will always get someone to buy property for whatever life style needs he/she wants; it does not mean that is a good or wise financial decision.

    For a start, why buy in Spain at all? I looked at what was available in Spain and then looked at Krakow in Poland. Here I bought a farm with 2.5 ha, 160m house and a barn in beautiful farm land with a pleasant view. It takes 35minutes to the centre of Krakow and getting there via public transport cost 70pence. The land produces 5000 dollars of wheat per year, the house needs work, but at £35K it puts a two bedroom apartment at 140k euro’s in Spain in rather sharp contrast. Sure Poland’s winters are cold, but short so renting in the Canaries for six weeks a year will be easily financed by the 100K I’ve saved by buying in Poland. Tax? £180 income tax per year for a farmer in Poland and about £60 per year rates.

    My choices, and a lifestyle choice that may not suit many others but it emphasises that Spain is by no means the only or best second home option. Its got terrible future growth prospects and foreigners will be milked dry for years to pay for Spains debts.

    As for the reference to sheep, yes buying in Spain in the past and future few years will be for the sheep (or ‘lifestyle buyers’ who hare happy to lose money. Ha!).

    Smart people, most people who have avoided listening to lying estate agents and their irk will ask the question; what is the upside and downside of Spanish Property investment? Will it (as my Polish Farm as it moves to the Euro) likely increase in value 100%, 200% or decrease by 10, 20%, 30% (like Spain – property prices always come down in unison, do give me the Marbella is special ****)? Can you put your hand on your heart and tell me that an apartment costing FIVE times the UK average wage, in Spain, will increase in value in real terms in future? If not, rent. Its cheaper and more flexible.

  • #97955
    Profile photo of Chris McCarthy
    Chris McCarthy
    Participant

    @peterhun wrote:

    For a start, why buy in Spain at all? I looked at what was available in Spain and then looked at Krakow in Poland. Here I bought a farm with 2.5 ha, 160m house and a barn in beautiful farm land with a pleasant view. It takes 35minutes to the centre of Krakow and getting there via public transport cost 70pence.

    My choices, and a lifestyle choice that may not suit many others but it emphasises that Spain is by no means the only or best second home option. Its got terrible future growth prospects and foreigners will be milked dry for years to pay for Spains debts.

    It is not often my jaw drops open on this forum, I thought I had seen it all.

    You bought in Poland…

    So your reason for being on SPI telling everyone they are an idiot to buy in Spain is what exactly…?

    Good luck to you, I am sure the 70p bus ride to Krakow is a pure joy compared to living and owning in Spain.

    I really don’t know what I hadn’t thought of going there myself.

    And to think the guys up above who have taken the trouble to give their reasons – non investment based and personal – for buying in what we all thought was a beautiful, sun blessed, cultured and magnficent country such as Spain, could all along have gone to Poland.

    It just beggars belief.

    Congratulations on your purchase, but how on earth did you end up on SPI, shouldn’t you be on PPI or some such and extolling the virtues of Poland really? Is it really fair or right for you to be making your own overseas purchase choice in one country and coming to a site to attack others for making their own choice in Spain, for which they have patently given every bit as good an argument for buying here as you have in Greater Krakow?

    Am almost speechlesss, I really am.

  • #97958
    Profile photo of logan
    logan
    Participant

    @Chris McCarthy wrote:

    Am almost speechlesss, I really am.

    That’ll be the day Chris. 😀

  • #97959
    Profile photo of katy
    katy
    Spectator

    It is not often my jaw drops open on this forum, I thought I had seen it all.

    Yes Chris, agree with you about this 😀 Very strange! I do agree all the other points about not having a second home. We had one in Spain for years before living there. We did get fed up after a few years. When the kids got older they didn’t want to go unless we took half their friends with them :mrgreen: Finally it never felt like a holiday so we sort of had it as a second holiday place. Said before a “real” holiday (for me) is a bit of luxury and different places to see, guaranteed weather. Not looking to see if we need milk etc. and spending half the morning trailing around supermarkets. When you are not there you are at the mercy of inefficient or even dishonest property managers.

    As for the Warren Buffet investment mode. I think we were doing that before I had heard of him. In 2002/3 we sold two spanish properties (bought from banks during the last crash). We sold them because the market was booming and I thought it couldn’t last. Renting out is a hassle too. The CDS attracts so many fraudsters and people who can’t really afford their life in the sun! Two years ago we sold the boat and the mooring. We made a fantastic profit out of the mooring. I really don’t think Spain is at the stage of “buying when fearful”. If I were to buy property for investment I would do it in the UK (at least you can rent them). A block of terrace houses we own (and have never seen) in the North East have proved better than any other investment. For serious investors the stock market has been a winner this year.

    At the same time we were selling, a Swedish friend was selling a whole block he owned in Calahonda. Took two years to sell them one by one.

    Mark your interested investors from NY….are they Nigerian 😉 😆 Or do they just read the rubbish put out that prices have really dropped 40%!

    BTW I shall soon be winging my way to a bit of culture…weather forecast not good but neither is Spain. I can definately say I shan’t be looking at property 😀

    http://www.royalgroup.it/eng/menu_sinistra_webcam/webcam.htm

  • #97961
    Profile photo of Chris McCarthy
    Chris McCarthy
    Participant

    @logan wrote:

    @Chris McCarthy wrote:
    Am almost speechlesss, I really am.

    That’ll be the day Chris. 😀

    Ha…! But I did say almost…!

  • #97963
    Profile photo of peterhun
    peterhun
    Participant

    @Chris McCarthy wrote:

    @peterhun wrote:
    For a start, why buy in Spain at all? I looked at what was available in Spain and then looked at Krakow in Poland. Here I bought a farm with 2.5 ha, 160m house and a barn in beautiful farm land with a pleasant view. It takes 35minutes to the centre of Krakow and getting there via public transport cost 70pence.

    My choices, and a lifestyle choice that may not suit many others but it emphasises that Spain is by no means the only or best second home option. Its got terrible future growth prospects and foreigners will be milked dry for years to pay for Spains debts.

    It is not often my jaw drops open on this forum, I thought I had seen it all.

    You bought in Poland…

    So your reason for being on SPI telling everyone they are an idiot to buy in Spain is what exactly…?

    Good luck to you, I am sure the 70p bus ride to Krakow is a pure joy compared to living and owning in Spain.

    I really don’t know what I hadn’t thought of going there myself.

    And to think the guys up above who have taken the trouble to give their reasons – non investment based and personal – for buying in what we all thought was a beautiful, sun blessed, cultured and magnficent country such as Spain, could all along have gone to Poland.

    It just beggars belief.

    Congratulations on your purchase, but how on earth did you end up on SPI, shouldn’t you be on PPI or some such and extolling the virtues of Poland really? Is it really fair or right for you to be making your own overseas purchase choice in one country and coming to a site to attack others for making their own choice in Spain, for which they have patently given every bit as good an argument for buying here as you have in Greater Krakow?

    Am almost speechlesss, I really am.

    Of course you wouldn’t understand why anyone would buy in anywhere than Spain would you? You are some sort of Estate agent in Spain, are you not, so your opinion is utterly worthless on anything related to property due to your vested interested.

    I’m here because seriously considered buying in Spain before realising its a corrupt country fully of crooks and sharks overcharging for dubious property (overbuilt, spoilt and ugly) at ridiculously high prices. People like you, for instance who post outright lies about how the property market is going to boom. “magnficent country ” ha.. thats salesmans talk, pure and simple.

    >> given every bit as good an argument for buying here as you have in Greater Krakow?
    The argument for buying in Spain is based entirely on emotion, not sound financial sense. Your job is to play on that and bullshit, of course .

  • #97964
    Profile photo of Fuengi (Andrew)
    Fuengi (Andrew)
    Participant

    oh for god sake.

    point 1
    peterhun bought in poland for an investment. Which can be used to pay for holidays in Spain. His choice.

    point 2
    Every corruption index shows poland as being far more corrupt than spain.

    point 3
    where ever there is a foreign demand (or even local) there will be salesman trying to rip someone off.

    point 4
    pricing is relative.

    point 5
    future growth. Property in Spain, solely as an investment, it not the best international option. Farmland in poland is a risky propostion, especially as the EU will be reducing its farming subsidies substantially in the next 5/10 years.

    point 6
    lifestyle. Yes spain is great for lifestyle. easy access, lovely culture, etc… So are places like krakow/prague/etc…
    Lifestyle is one of the wonderful bullshit terms that boils down to “I WANT THAT SORT OF LIFE”. Whethers that surrounding yourselves with ponces or living with aborigines.

    (sorry a bit ratty this afternoon)

  • #97965
    Profile photo of peterhun
    peterhun
    Participant

    >>point 2
    >>Every corruption index shows poland as being far more corrupt than spain.
    Correct, but the corruption is Poland is the ‘give a bottle of vodka to the Mayor to get your road surfaced’ or ‘bung a few zloty to deliveryman to get the stuff cheaper’. Not the ‘demolish your house, add tens of thousands of euro’s to your service charges and tax you unfairly’ kind.

    >>point 5
    >>future growth. Property in Spain, solely as an investment, it not the best international option. Farmland in poland is a risky propostion, especially as the >>EU will be reducing its farming subsidies substantially in the next 5/10 years.
    The viability of farming is a whole issue in itself. The EU grant I get on my farm is worth ~£350 per year, the cost of wheat (or whatever) has more influence on profitability – to me its simply money for nothing as my neighbour pays to use the land at the moment. If oil prices and commodity prices spike as expected again then I will be quids in. Many investors are moving into agriculture as food prices came down 75% with the advent of cheap petroleum (natural Gas) based fertilizers in the 1960, this is expected to be largely reversed with the increase in oil prices. Last year, as an example, a single acre of garlic yielded £5k. As it is I get a 5 percent return, while still being able to live at the farm, on an investment that I have already paid off 50% in the first year. The point is, for virtually peanuts I have enough land to provide me with a pension.

    >>point 6
    >>Lifestyle is one of the wonderful bullshit terms that boils down to “I WANT THAT SORT OF LIFE”. Whethers that surrounding yourselves with ponces or >>living with aborigines.
    Agreed, I wanted a country, hunting, farming lifestyle. The sun is nice, but so is snow.

  • #97967
    Profile photo of Fuengi (Andrew)
    Fuengi (Andrew)
    Participant

    Hi peter.
    while the subsidies last, you might look into seeing if your farm is entitled to anything!

    in regards to corruption I can’t agree. As percentage of total cost corruption in poland is higher than spain. But again the whole point of me posting is to point out that if one person wants oranges and another apples that’s fine! each have their own merits and attract different sort of tastes.

  • #97968
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    For the good life. Try farming in Ukraine.

  • #97969
    Profile photo of peterhun
    peterhun
    Participant

    @shakeel wrote:

    For the good life. Try farming in Ukraine.

    Superb soil and very, very cheap. Poles go there for bargain holidays.

  • #97970
    Profile photo of peterhun
    peterhun
    Participant

    @shakeel wrote:

    For the good life. Try farming in Ukraine.

    Superb soil and very, very cheap. Poles go there for bargain holidays.

    while the subsidies last, you might look into seeing if your farm is entitled to anything!

    Thats a job in itself, getting grants. I’m already looking at getting free satellite internet access.

  • #97971
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    Peterhun. I take your word for it. I am a city boy at heart and in mind. I however respect people who like to be with nature grants or no grants.

    Polish property in Warsaw, Krakow, Tricity, Poznan etc had been good investments whilst the Zloty was 8 to a £. Of Course the Irish & Poles returning from UK had distorted the market. The taxes are low I beleive around 18% and no capital gains tax if the asset had been held for five years. The Vodka & Women are not bad either.

    Skiing in the Tetra mountain is cheap and before you all jump to quality of soviet style blocks. There are some very modern & high tech buildings have been erected in the last fifteen years.

  • #97976
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    we tend to holiday in spain and often in the same villa or villas we have previously rented as my wife is a nightmare who doesn’t like change and if going to a new villa is expecting it not to be there on our arrival.so the whole build up to a holiday is very stressful we are looking into buying for this reason.We are not worried about profit or anything like that just to give her the peace of mind is priceless

  • #97978
    Profile photo of angie
    angie
    Spectator

    Returning to the topic for a mo, maybe Chris and the other agents could tell us how they think the oft quoted 1.5 million unsold properties in Spain will be sold and how long this will take, and as I’ve pointed out several times before would they agree or not the point I’ve tried making that once the buyer has bought, the property would need to rise in price 20 maybe 25% to break even should they try and sell and if so, how long would they expect that to take.

    We doubters for our reasons are quite right though in our sceptism of the Taylor Wimpey article since thet are developers who’ve really struggled globally, likewise as Chris said quote ‘he is hardly likely to post anything negative’ so if that’s the case how dangerous could that be if a new client walks in and asks about the furure for Spanish property, will he be led to the negatives as well as the agent’s talking-up of the market?

    Only asking, but I also hear that Krakow and Warsaw are pretty vibrant cities along the lines of Prague, we have Polish friends in the UK and Poland who speak of their history and beauty.

  • #97979
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    @katy wrote:

    Notice another “spokesperson” in the article is Savills. A company who advertises weekly with the Times

    Yes Katy, and it was through their office in Marbella we bought our (what turned out to be) illegal build. Sorry Chris, but I totally refute your comments about large companies and their so-called assumed ethics.

    Oh, and when we contacted their head office in London about our predicament of laying out over 100,000 euros in the foolish belief we were in the ‘safe hands’ of such a large organisation, their only comment was “the gentleman in our Marbella office is no longer employed by us”. In other words, “it’s now nothing to do with us”.

  • #97980
    Profile photo of logan
    logan
    Participant

    @angie wrote:

    I’ve pointed out several times before would they agree or not the point I’ve tried making that once the buyer has bought, the property would need to rise in price 20 maybe 25% to break even should they try and sell and if so, how long would they expect that to take.

    An excellent point Angie and one I have also mentioned before. The logically market conclusion to the answer is that property in Spain needs to reduce across the board by this minimum amount before the market remotely looks attractive. My personal estimate is 30-35%. Even with that kind of reduction the prospect of capital growth within 5 years is marginal. Rather like having your cash on deposit right now. At least that has less risk or hassle.

  • #97981
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    even a reduction of 30% won’t bring back alot of english buyers as this just equals what we have lost on exchange and means the property is still actually the same price as it was before the pound tumbled and the bubble burst

  • #97982
    Profile photo of logan
    logan
    Participant

    @dartboy wrote:

    even a reduction of 30% won’t bring back alot of english buyers as this just equals what we have lost on exchange and means the property is still actually the same price as it was before the pound tumbled and the bubble burst

    I am referring to 30% to 35% below today’s reduced property offers (repossessions) which have dropped considerably from their selling levels since the crash. I believe once the banks wake up or are forced to face the music, property with suffer another catastrophic collapse.
    Anyone who buys now without substantial discounts of the kind I mentioned will loose considerable sums of money.

  • #97983
    Profile photo of Fuengi (Andrew)
    Fuengi (Andrew)
    Participant

    @angie wrote:

    Returning to the topic for a mo, maybe Chris and the other agents could tell us how they think the oft quoted 1.5 million unsold properties in Spain will be sold and how long this will take,

    mmm. always an interesting one. Let’s keep it to 2 points.
    1. how long is a piece of string?
    2. is there demand for those properties?

    Many are in areas where there is no (real) demand, as the locations are just terrible. As many of you have probably read it could take 3 to 4 years for this stock to be bought up. All these forecasters are basing this on is the level of new property sales from the last years. I think many in poor locations will never sell unless they are price at foolishly low prices that someone will buy to simply sit on and wait till the market really picks up.

    @angie wrote:

    and as I’ve pointed out several times before would they agree or not the point I’ve tried making that once the buyer has bought, the property would need to rise in price 20 maybe 25% to break even should they try and sell and if so, how long would they expect that to take.

    well lets see:
    you buy for 100.000€
    purchase tax: (11%) 11.000€
    so far 111.000€
    on selling you have to pay your plus valia,etc… after a year, so lets say 500€
    if they are non-residents and don’t want to pay up for the 3% that needs to be added into the price.
    In theory that would mean they need to sell for approximately 116.000€ to break even.

    This is of course assuming you do not use an agent when selling. If you are then any agency will charge anything from 3% up to 10% (according to some posters). Then its up to the vendor to see whether they want to use an agent or not.

    In regards to how will it take to sell the property. Comes down to how well priced the property is compared to its competition and whether the agency knows their ‘stuff’.

    @angie wrote:

    We doubters for our reasons are quite right though in our sceptism of the Taylor Wimpey article since thet are developers who’ve really struggled globally, likewise as Chris said quote ‘he is hardly likely to post anything negative’ so if that’s the case how dangerous could that be if a new client walks in and asks about the furure for Spanish property, will he be led to the negatives as well as the agent’s talking-up of the market?

    Of course an agent is going to talk up the market. If we don’t sell we don’t make money. But one thing is pointing out what we see as good opportunities and something is is bullshit.

    We all read/seen/heard the buy an off-plan with definite rental potential and our chart shows prices increasing by 20% per year for the next century.

    Another thing is showing a property that ticks the boxes you are looking for, values up above the sales price by 20/30%, is better priced than competiting properties and so forth, and what sort of rental potential it has.

    if this is too vague please ask me to clarify. got to shoot out will try and answer in a few hours.

  • #97989
    Profile photo of Fuengi (Andrew)
    Fuengi (Andrew)
    Participant

    Quick post.

    been looking at the INE stats. sales up in spain month on month and year on year.

  • #97990
    Profile photo of angie
    angie
    Spectator

    Thanks for answering Fuengi.

    I’m not trying to be awkward here but on one point say the hyperthetical property of 100k euros and the completion costs of 11% etc, my reason for the property needing to increase by more than you say IMO 20-25% is because in that price of 100k euros there will be a built in agent’s commission of maybe 5% or so, meaning that the property is actually only worth 95k euros, more so with some agents.

    Transaction costs even in the UK of an average 2-3% if the property is under 500k stg for example is enough to deter many people from moving home but this is so much lower than in Spain etc, but the difference can be made up quicker in a slightly rising UK market.

    Totally agree with charlie that several of the larger agents in Spain some years ago, always used the same excuse that ‘oh that salesperson has left and we are’nt responsible for what they told you’ a crafty get-out clause!!

  • #97993
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    @fuengi wrote:

    Quick post.

    been looking at the INE stats. sales up in spain month on month and year on year.

    Yes, but……most of that increase came from Barcelona and Madrid. Smells fishy. See:
    Spanish property market bounces back by 16pc in February

  • #97997
    Profile photo of Fuengi (Andrew)
    Fuengi (Andrew)
    Participant

    @mark wrote:

    @fuengi wrote:
    Quick post.

    been looking at the INE stats. sales up in spain month on month and year on year.

    Yes, but……most of that increase came from Barcelona and Madrid. Smells fishy. See:
    Spanish property market bounces back by 16pc in February

    Your absolutely right. And the province of Malaga (my real interest) increased by 17%. Aberration/bottoming out/green shoots?. We’ll see over the coming months. Until then I’m treating it as good news!

  • #97998
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    My perception is, that in my area (CB Torrevieja-Alicante city). The expat urbs are selling a few units, and as a percentage this must be a good increase, as they weren’t really selling anything.

    I’m told that the Madrileños are buying quite a lot of cheap (circa 80k€) holiday homes. There are a few northern European buyers too.

    However, for the part of the market I’m interested in, Casas de Campo, and mainly from Spanish owners. This feels like it is collapsing, the range of suitable property available to me has increased dramatically over the last few months, and the prices have definitely dropped significantly. Of course agents are telling me that this market is improving, but it clearly is not.

    I’m starting to think that agents are actually believing their own hype now, maybe it’s desperation. But it’s really sad to hear the same old BS, and also that a house is a bargain, because it’s reduced by X thousand euros.

  • #98006
    Profile photo of angie
    angie
    Spectator

    If there’s any bounce in the Spanish market it is very doubtful it’s coming from British buyers as happened in the ‘bullshit and boom days’ of before.

    Maybe some eurozone buyers have decided to bottom feed the market again, however articles in today’s Telegraph and other papers are really downgrading the euro as a currency again so maybe not a good investment for those buyers, however if the euro falls some Brits will no doubt buy again if only for the weather provided they can raise the funds, but the vast numbers for sale and rent mean there will be no Spanish property boom for years.

    Any media reports and stats. coming out of Spain and the Developers for the foreseeable future are bound to be hype again!

  • #98084
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    The Spanish property market was one of the worst affected countries following the market crash in 2008.

    It is difficult to judge the state of the property market at the end of 2010. Some sources have said that confidence in the property market is fuelling current interest in Spanish property. However, others predict that the property market could drop another 27% during 2010, with property prices expected to stabilise by the end of the year. A recovery is likely to occur in 2011.

    It will be interesting to compare these two predictions at the end of the year.

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