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I haven’t voted (put me down as a don’t know 😉 )
What I am seeing locally is that Spain has already been hit hard…the place is dead, shops and restaurants empty. I am in the UK now and there are no visible signs of a recession, hard to find an empty restaurant table etc. Difference is Spain doesn’t talk itself down unlike the UK who comes up with a new disaster every day.
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I haven’t voted (put me down as a don’t know 😉 )
What I am seeing locally is that Spain has already been hit hard…the place is dead, shops and restaurants empty. I am in the UK now and there are no visible signs of a recession, hard to find an empty restaurant table etc. Difference is Spain doesn’t talk itself down unlike the UK who comes up with a new disaster every day.
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@katy wrote:
I haven’t voted (put me down as a don’t know 😉 )
What I am seeing locally is that Spain has already been hit hard…the place is dead, shops and restaurants empty. I am in the UK now and there are no visible signs of a recession, hard to find an empty restaurant table etc. Difference is Spain doesn’t talk itself down unlike the UK who comes up with a new disaster every day.
I do not think UK talks itself down, the situation is critical. The difference is that UK people
have more money to start with so, if you take away some wealth, still a lot remains.
Spain had a once-in-a-lifetime chance to get rich due to construction sector. Take that away and see that the Emperor has no clothes…But it is still hard to tell which country will fall further in the near future.
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@katy wrote:
I haven’t voted (put me down as a don’t know 😉 )
What I am seeing locally is that Spain has already been hit hard…the place is dead, shops and restaurants empty. I am in the UK now and there are no visible signs of a recession, hard to find an empty restaurant table etc. Difference is Spain doesn’t talk itself down unlike the UK who comes up with a new disaster every day.
I do not think UK talks itself down, the situation is critical. The difference is that UK people
have more money to start with so, if you take away some wealth, still a lot remains.
Spain had a once-in-a-lifetime chance to get rich due to construction sector. Take that away and see that the Emperor has no clothes…But it is still hard to tell which country will fall further in the near future.
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flosmichael
things look pretty bad for both, but i think Spain will take longer to recover. The UK’s problems are i think very much part of the worldwide crisis, i think the basics are still sound in the UK though? Spain was heading for a disaster anyway due its corruption/lack of regulation/justice, which has resulted in losing much of probably its biggest incomes. Tourism and building. Until Spain accepts it’s problems and acts on them, its hard to see much recovery on the costas at least. I guess areas that don’t depend on the recent boom in building/tourism might fair better?
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flosmichael
things look pretty bad for both, but i think Spain will take longer to recover. The UK’s problems are i think very much part of the worldwide crisis, i think the basics are still sound in the UK though? Spain was heading for a disaster anyway due its corruption/lack of regulation/justice, which has resulted in losing much of probably its biggest incomes. Tourism and building. Until Spain accepts it’s problems and acts on them, its hard to see much recovery on the costas at least. I guess areas that don’t depend on the recent boom in building/tourism might fair better?
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I think -in part- Spain’s recovery is dependant on the ability for the UK to recover. For the reasons goodstitch mentions above.
However, there is a growing number of UK citizens looking to move abroad as soon as they can sell their properties. Mostly due to their dissatifaction with the government and UK economy and it’s prospects. On a couple of recent trips to the UK, many of my family and friends asked about living in Spain for the first time in the 9 years I have been living here. These were people who had not even considered it during the boom years and I would never have had them down to leave their home towns.
So, it remains to be seen whether they do take the plunge if/when they sell their UK properties, but the key factor will remain, what are they giving up? and at present, it won’t be very much.
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I think -in part- Spain’s recovery is dependant on the ability for the UK to recover. For the reasons goodstitch mentions above.
However, there is a growing number of UK citizens looking to move abroad as soon as they can sell their properties. Mostly due to their dissatifaction with the government and UK economy and it’s prospects. On a couple of recent trips to the UK, many of my family and friends asked about living in Spain for the first time in the 9 years I have been living here. These were people who had not even considered it during the boom years and I would never have had them down to leave their home towns.
So, it remains to be seen whether they do take the plunge if/when they sell their UK properties, but the key factor will remain, what are they giving up? and at present, it won’t be very much.
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@katy wrote:
They may not be giving up much in the UK but they will be getting less in Spain…least of all a job. I don’t know anyone who wants to move here now, people are only envious because of the climate.
I take your comment on the climate as a valid point katy.
However, I understand how easy it is to become disillusioned after a few years living the dream, especially when the credit crunch has put paid to many peoples jobs and ventures here in Spain.
About a year ago, I spent sometime with an English friend of mine living in France, he was a business consultant ( a very good one) and after settling into life in France, he created a small consultancy helpng ex-pats to start up, buy or run a business to help increase their income abroad.
I replicated his idea here in Spain, and have found it taking off in the past several months.
For UK citizens arriving in Spain with a new life in prospect, they can tap into advice and help regarding business ideas, helping them avoid the pitfalls and beurocracy at the start, they can also be shown hidden markets, new markets and be more effective with their promotions and marketing.
THe common businesses most ex-pats start here in Spain are, B&B/self-catering, building, bars/cafe, plumbing, electrical, buy to let, IT work and a host of others. In order to hit the ground running with these businesses, it is important to understand the new economic and market forces that prevail in a country you know little about, that is were many peole go wrong and often where they loose their operating capital in the first year.
They get advice from people in bars, they encounter legal problems and may even be trying to operate their idea in a saturated market with little idea about existing established competition.
I have seen since October last year, 3 business start-ups achieve some real success by listening to good advice and guidence.
It is still possible to come to Spain and create a succesful business, as it is still in the UK, so in reality, finding a way to earn a living in Spain need not be a barrier to moving out and starting a new life.
Like all things in life, there is a right way and a wrong way of starting a business, but if it is the right idea, at the right time in the right area, with effective marketing it will succeed.
I see no shortage of ideas, or markets even in todays economic climate.
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@katy wrote:
They may not be giving up much in the UK but they will be getting less in Spain…least of all a job. I don’t know anyone who wants to move here now, people are only envious because of the climate.
I take your comment on the climate as a valid point katy.
However, I understand how easy it is to become disillusioned after a few years living the dream, especially when the credit crunch has put paid to many peoples jobs and ventures here in Spain.
About a year ago, I spent sometime with an English friend of mine living in France, he was a business consultant ( a very good one) and after settling into life in France, he created a small consultancy helpng ex-pats to start up, buy or run a business to help increase their income abroad.
I replicated his idea here in Spain, and have found it taking off in the past several months.
For UK citizens arriving in Spain with a new life in prospect, they can tap into advice and help regarding business ideas, helping them avoid the pitfalls and beurocracy at the start, they can also be shown hidden markets, new markets and be more effective with their promotions and marketing.
THe common businesses most ex-pats start here in Spain are, B&B/self-catering, building, bars/cafe, plumbing, electrical, buy to let, IT work and a host of others. In order to hit the ground running with these businesses, it is important to understand the new economic and market forces that prevail in a country you know little about, that is were many peole go wrong and often where they loose their operating capital in the first year.
They get advice from people in bars, they encounter legal problems and may even be trying to operate their idea in a saturated market with little idea about existing established competition.
I have seen since October last year, 3 business start-ups achieve some real success by listening to good advice and guidence.
It is still possible to come to Spain and create a succesful business, as it is still in the UK, so in reality, finding a way to earn a living in Spain need not be a barrier to moving out and starting a new life.
Like all things in life, there is a right way and a wrong way of starting a business, but if it is the right idea, at the right time in the right area, with effective marketing it will succeed.
I see no shortage of ideas, or markets even in todays economic climate.
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@rt21 wrote:
Whilst I wouldn’t dispute what you say in terms of your own experience, I think it would take a very brave person to up sticks, move to another country and risk their capital in starting up a new businees in what are very dire and unpredictable times.
Richard
Absolutely true Richard. Your views are fully representative of those who have deep reservations about starting a new life in; not just overseas locations but also in their home towns in the UK.
But, if you sat with the right person for 60 minutes, who could help you see beyond your envisaged pitfalls and reservations, then your questions and doubts would be replaced with an interest in seriously considering the right enterprise for you.
Not all advice is good, especially when given with the wrong intentions, but sound practical advice, born out of experience and proven track record often speaks for itself.
No-one can possibly move area/country and percieve all the problems and obstacles they could encounter, thats why even; Tescos, McDonalds, Starbucks and blue-chip companys seek local business expertise before the expand into new countries.
Good advice doesn’t have to be expensive, but it does have to be honest.
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@rt21 wrote:
Whilst I wouldn’t dispute what you say in terms of your own experience, I think it would take a very brave person to up sticks, move to another country and risk their capital in starting up a new businees in what are very dire and unpredictable times.
Richard
Absolutely true Richard. Your views are fully representative of those who have deep reservations about starting a new life in; not just overseas locations but also in their home towns in the UK.
But, if you sat with the right person for 60 minutes, who could help you see beyond your envisaged pitfalls and reservations, then your questions and doubts would be replaced with an interest in seriously considering the right enterprise for you.
Not all advice is good, especially when given with the wrong intentions, but sound practical advice, born out of experience and proven track record often speaks for itself.
No-one can possibly move area/country and percieve all the problems and obstacles they could encounter, thats why even; Tescos, McDonalds, Starbucks and blue-chip companys seek local business expertise before the expand into new countries.
Good advice doesn’t have to be expensive, but it does have to be honest.
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Hi Katy
Reported yesterday that in London its 50 after every job
Have advertised for a bench joiner in Devon at the local job centre and have had 27 applications so far.
Firms around me are failing everyday and one in every four retail shops are closing in many areas.
NO WOOLIES. No future 😥
Contruction is getting a real hammering and without that in either countries then thats big problems ahead as in most cases it comes back to this sector to bring about changes both good and bad.
Still with reports that Spain is set for unemployment of up to 25% and the real s–t to hit the fan in both countries think I would rather be unemployed in the warm as its bloody freezing. 😥Regards
Just Frank 8) -
Hi Katy
Reported yesterday that in London its 50 after every job
Have advertised for a bench joiner in Devon at the local job centre and have had 27 applications so far.
Firms around me are failing everyday and one in every four retail shops are closing in many areas.
NO WOOLIES. No future 😥
Contruction is getting a real hammering and without that in either countries then thats big problems ahead as in most cases it comes back to this sector to bring about changes both good and bad.
Still with reports that Spain is set for unemployment of up to 25% and the real s–t to hit the fan in both countries think I would rather be unemployed in the warm as its bloody freezing. 😥Regards
Just Frank 8) -
Its a close run race to be sure, but I think Spain is quite stable. Thanks to not giving hand outs and help to all and sundry, the ones prepared to work and tighten their belts will survive in Spain, many ex pats will go back to the UK and in some cases be a burden on the economy.
Many immigrants here, from whatever country, wont be able to survive, will leave and this I feel will see Spain not getting as bad as the UK overall.
Yes industries will suffer, but people will still live and the Spanish are still buying property, albeit in not such the huge numbers as before. A well run tight business, not wholly dependant on english speakers will survive. I know of several people who have lost jobs in one place, but then have found other work within a reasonable timeframe. Nothing massivley exciting but they are able to cover their outgoings and live.
I did find it interesting how quiet the shops were prior to the 25th december which is when the english go shopping for xmas, in comparison to the huge jams and queues prior to 6th january. A very noticeable difference and everywhere was packed to the brim.
Interesting times for sure
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Its a close run race to be sure, but I think Spain is quite stable. Thanks to not giving hand outs and help to all and sundry, the ones prepared to work and tighten their belts will survive in Spain, many ex pats will go back to the UK and in some cases be a burden on the economy.
Many immigrants here, from whatever country, wont be able to survive, will leave and this I feel will see Spain not getting as bad as the UK overall.
Yes industries will suffer, but people will still live and the Spanish are still buying property, albeit in not such the huge numbers as before. A well run tight business, not wholly dependant on english speakers will survive. I know of several people who have lost jobs in one place, but then have found other work within a reasonable timeframe. Nothing massivley exciting but they are able to cover their outgoings and live.
I did find it interesting how quiet the shops were prior to the 25th december which is when the english go shopping for xmas, in comparison to the huge jams and queues prior to 6th january. A very noticeable difference and everywhere was packed to the brim.
Interesting times for sure
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I think Inez has it about right.
The UK health service spends 53% of GDP on it’s health provision. I read somewhere that the NHS is the 3rd largest employer in the world – The Chinese army is 4th!!
Other countries, including Spain, have to find a fraction of this amount, the US for example is 8%.
With this mill-stone around it’s neck, the UK has no scope for raising taxes or NHI. It has lowered V.A.T 😯 No other country is handling it’s economy in such an irresponsible way.
My vote goes in favour of Spain and my commiserations go to anyone living in the UK.
All of the above is mostly my opinion and can be countered and even disproven, but I am in no way contemplating a return to Britain. 😀
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I think Inez has it about right.
The UK health service spends 53% of GDP on it’s health provision. I read somewhere that the NHS is the 3rd largest employer in the world – The Chinese army is 4th!!
Other countries, including Spain, have to find a fraction of this amount, the US for example is 8%.
With this mill-stone around it’s neck, the UK has no scope for raising taxes or NHI. It has lowered V.A.T 😯 No other country is handling it’s economy in such an irresponsible way.
My vote goes in favour of Spain and my commiserations go to anyone living in the UK.
All of the above is mostly my opinion and can be countered and even disproven, but I am in no way contemplating a return to Britain. 😀
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I think these people agree that UK will win the race to the bottom.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/5d4a02ca-e7a1-11dd-b2a5-0000779fd2ac.html
I hope they are wrong.
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I think these people agree that UK will win the race to the bottom.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/5d4a02ca-e7a1-11dd-b2a5-0000779fd2ac.html
I hope they are wrong.
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I read somewhere last week that certain hedgefunds and speculators were selling the pound short. Nothing surprising in that. It was of very little surprise therefore this week to hear Jim Rogers’ comments about the UK because this was the man who made a tidy in selling the pound short on Black Wednesday many years ago. I wonder whether he is back to his old tricks
Richard
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I read somewhere last week that certain hedgefunds and speculators were selling the pound short. Nothing surprising in that. It was of very little surprise therefore this week to hear Jim Rogers’ comments about the UK because this was the man who made a tidy in selling the pound short on Black Wednesday many years ago. I wonder whether he is back to his old tricks
Richard
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I cna’t say who will suffer more but I will say this.
When it comes to the economic growth Spain seems more extreme than its neighbours. Whe thye are doing ok, Spain does very well. When they are struggling, Spain plunges.
The UKs strengh is its flexibility which many nations in europe don’t have, so although its going to be dire there, there should be a good chance of recovery as long as the government does not meddle too much.
Spains strength, is that there is alot of room for improvement. So they can make the improvements that the UK, germany, etc… had to make in the 80s % 90s to improve their economies.
EDIT. whether they make those improvements though…
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I cna’t say who will suffer more but I will say this.
When it comes to the economic growth Spain seems more extreme than its neighbours. Whe thye are doing ok, Spain does very well. When they are struggling, Spain plunges.
The UKs strengh is its flexibility which many nations in europe don’t have, so although its going to be dire there, there should be a good chance of recovery as long as the government does not meddle too much.
Spains strength, is that there is alot of room for improvement. So they can make the improvements that the UK, germany, etc… had to make in the 80s % 90s to improve their economies.
EDIT. whether they make those improvements though…
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The well known economist Roubini said the UK recession could last 2 years. Hear a very short interview at
http://news.bbc.co.uk/today/hi/today/newsid_7846000/7846412.stm
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The well known economist Roubini said the UK recession could last 2 years. Hear a very short interview at
http://news.bbc.co.uk/today/hi/today/newsid_7846000/7846412.stm
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@shakeel wrote:
Most replies have looked at the situation in a simplest form. The economies are very different with different slant e.g Spain relied on construction whilst UK relied on Banking/finance.
The main question is what are they going to base economies on after the crisis?
There won’t be any need for a construction boom in Spain and the financial sector will be much more regulated with less profits in UK.Both countries have to return to the basics, building empty houses or trading financial derivatives are not sustainable.
I think both countries will fall very hard (but they will be joined by Italy, Greece, Ireland,
most of the Eastern European countries). -
@shakeel wrote:
Most replies have looked at the situation in a simplest form. The economies are very different with different slant e.g Spain relied on construction whilst UK relied on Banking/finance.
The main question is what are they going to base economies on after the crisis?
There won’t be any need for a construction boom in Spain and the financial sector will be much more regulated with less profits in UK.Both countries have to return to the basics, building empty houses or trading financial derivatives are not sustainable.
I think both countries will fall very hard (but they will be joined by Italy, Greece, Ireland,
most of the Eastern European countries). -
@katy wrote:
Things are certainly worse for Spain at local level…Málaga province unemployment now 26.3% 😯
Are all the lost jobs related to tourism industry?
What are the main manufactury industries in Malaga area?
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@katy wrote:
Things are certainly worse for Spain at local level…Málaga province unemployment now 26.3% 😯
Are all the lost jobs related to tourism industry?
What are the main manufactury industries in Malaga area?
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@katy wrote:
Things are certainly worse for Spain at local level…Málaga province unemployment now 26.3% 😯
Just back from a few days in Spain and found that Marbella, Puerto Banus and Estepona were like ghost towns, a lot of shops, restaurants and bars shut. The big problem they have is that unless the £ strengthens against the euro or the PIIGS withdraw which I doubt tourism will be very flat as it is becoming very expensive. 26% might look good.
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@mark wrote:
It astonishes me when people praise Gordon Brown. He has been Chancellor and PM for the last 12 years, in which time he has lead the UK into the biggest economic crisis in a generation, whilst boasting about the end of boom and bust. If he is not to blame, then who on earth is?
Mark
The problem started, in the UK, under Thatcher and the determination that everyone should aspire to buy their own property. Trouble is this escalated into the property boom and overlending. I blame Brown for not putting a check on the overlending by banks through re-mortgaging and credit cards. Add the get quick rich buy to letting boom, second homes in yes, Spain, and you have the recipe for the crisis we are now in. Too much wealth has been invested in property assets and the consequences are upon us. The key is unemployment and when that levels out life should get calmer as people start to be able to pay heir bills again. So far as Spain is concerned a further influx of foreigners, especially Brits, to buy property seems a long way off. Brits are battening down the domestic financial hatches so Spanish sellers will have a long wait. Maybe everyone who was going to buy now has, and the new builds may stand empty for many years.
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Picked this up from another forum. Really says it all about the Spanish property bubble and this one was not flamed by residential tourism or Northern European property investors.
http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=ccJp6C1xdZ8&fmt=18
However I believe this programme which was broadcast last night on the BBC goes some way to explain why the US and the UK are reacting as they are now to try to avoid this happening again
http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b00h9xh8/b00h9xgm/1929_The_Great_Crash/Who will go down the furthest. History suggests this will be a worldwide depression and the last depression was one of the main causes of world war 2.
The comparisons with 1929/1930 are remarkable. -
Cardinal
Fail to see why Margaret Thatcher aspirations that people should work towards owning their property (I read that as just your main “home”) can in anyway responsible for what has happened now.
Will admit though I thought selling off council properties, at a fraction of the price, to sitting tenants was NOT the best of ideas.Debt agencies and the media have, for at least the last 5 years, been advertising Joe publics mounting debts yet Brown and Co. state ” they couldn’t see it coming” !!!!
Wow …what an admission 😯
Sooner this incompetent Government are gone the better.Watched The Great Crash last night and agree the similarities are remarkable.
Just pray that another world war won’t be needed to kick start the economies again. -
I think the government has to take its fair share of responsibility for the mess that we are now in together with the senior management of the major banks, whose reckless lending policies have hurt every single person in this country.
The government’s lighweight regulatory powers over the banking sector, their inability to see the extent of the housing bubble, their sell off of gold reserves at relatively low prices and their failure to put aside funds for a rainy day all smack of incompetence and a touch of arrogance
Even before the credit crunch emerged I argued that it was time for change as it is unhealthy to have one party in government for so long. However, I must confess I am now having second thoughts. Given the enormity of this recession (or depression) I believe that keynsian fiscal policies are needed to arrest the decline in economic activity otherwise we will be in danger of losing big chunks of commerce that will be very difficult to replace.
This leaves me with a big dilema because on the one hand I feel that the government should rightly be punished for the mess that they have put us. However, having put us in this mess, I feel that they are ironically the only major party that are promoting the economic policies that I believe are now needed to take us out of it. (that does not include the lowering of VAT which in my opinion is ineffective and a waste of time)
If a new government was voted in tomorrow, I would be interested to know what sort of economic policies others would want the government to follow
Richard
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That video on youtube that GJ posted above is shocking. It’s of a new development called Soto de Henares in Torrejón de Ardoz, east of Madrid, near Barajas airport, but it could be one of countless new developments in Spain. Collective madness is the only way to explain how we got here.
I’ve seen similar looking places up and down the coast. That video will help you understand some places might never come back.
Mark
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Anyone driving on the A-7 should take a look at the developments near to the cable car at Benalmádena. Blocks and more blocks, all the wrong side of the Motorway and all built over the past 18 months or so. Would take a photo but don’t want to risk death on the few centimetres of hard shoulder. I cannot imagine anyone buying them, resembles the Gaza strip.
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“Will admit though I thought selling off council properties, at a fraction of the price, to sitting tenants was NOT the best of ideas “.
There is no other way they could have been sold. Apart from lenders not willing to take them as collateral. The construction quality was poor, up keep & lack of maintenance, social problems etc. Who in their right minds would have paid an open market value for them ?. A friend of mine bought his flat in Finchley for around £16k, A year later he had to pay £22k to replace the double glazing etc. The works initiated by his Council. He had no say in it. If he wished to replace the same privately, he would have paid a fraction of the £22k. I am sure that as we are in UK, heavens !!! no brown envelopes were exchanged.
A large numbers who took their option sold them after the third year, to avoid any claw back on the price. This suited the BTL brigade as the properties offered good rental yields.
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@Melosine wrote:
I just dont think Social housing should ever for sale.
I think social housing is only viable if on a co-ownership basis.
Selling off council houses in the UK during the 80’s & 90’s was inspirational.
Unfortunately, it did not go far enough.
The idea of state/local government property is a poor one. It creates sink estates and ghetto’s. It’s a place where the local authorities despose of undesireables.
Every town and city across the UK has no go areas, and in nearly all cases they are state or local government owned properties.
If you like the idea of herding the dregs of society together in a ghetto for ease of policing, then fine, but they will not learn how to improve if they are surrounded by the same kind of people. The children of these types of people need to see a better side of society if they are to aspire to do better for themselves.
Co-ownership properties spread across all areas of a town and city is a better way of doing things and stops the ghetto mentality from growing.
It takes joined up thinking by local government when allowing new private development plans, it only needs to require all developers to build 30% co-ownership and 70% private ownership estates in order to supply good quality homes in decent environments to avoid the mistakes and sink estates of the 50’s & 60’s.
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Spain, Portugal and Greece have already had their credit status downgraded and Ireland is now on credit watch.
The eurozone has been kidding itself that the UK’s problems were far worse than their own. The European Central Bank has been far too slow to act and far behind with its interest rate cut which should now be at
0.5 or even 0.25%. With unemployment is Spain forecast to hit 10% or more they arte in a far worse position than the UK. The fact that their finance Minister continues to think everything is rosy is just adding to their problems.
The UK may be in for a deep and longer recession than the Government forecast, but it will be out of recession faster than most of the eurozone. -
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@Michael521 wrote:
Spain, Portugal and Greece have already had their credit status downgraded and Ireland is now on credit watch.
So spains credit rating is now AAA the same as the UKs.
@Michael521 wrote:
With unemployment is Spain forecast to hit 10% or more they arte in a far worse position than the UK. The fact that their finance Minister continues to think everything is rosy is just adding to their problems.
although 10% is far to high, even in 2004 when everything was looking up spains unemployment stood at 11%, officially
@Michael521 wrote:
The UK may be in for a deep and longer recession than the Government forecast, but it will be out of recession faster than most of the eurozone.
heres hoping.
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Announced today:
Spain declared officially in recession today, first time since 1993.
Spain has the highest unemployment in the EU, losing 40,000 jobs every week.
Unemployment currently sitting at 13.9%.Counter-balancing that, the UK economy is predicted to shrink by 3% with the IMF warning of the deepest recession of any industrialised country this year, our worst recession since the Second World War
I can understand why nobody is voting on this poll, it’s anyone’s guess.
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@Fuengi wrote:
Heres another one.
Will any other country in europe suffer more than spain or the UK?
Romania, Bulgaria, Hungary, Ireland, all ex-USSR countries, probably Greece.
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@Just Frank wrote:
IMF
Says it going to be the U.K however Gordon says its not. 😕
Flosmicheal list appears good.
Japan will be in there somewhere.
Had someone come back from an Exhibition from Poland and he was very upbeat.
Watch this space as it appears anyones guess.Just Frank 8)
do you have a source/link?
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The European Commission sees the unemployment rate continuing to rise in Spain to 16.1 percent in 2010 and 18.7 percent the following year. This contrasts with the Spanish Government’s forecast that it will rise to 15.9 percent this year before gradually starting to fall.
Standard & Poor, who recently lowered its rating on debt issued by Spain by one notch, said euro membership had become part of the problem since it prevented the country resorting to aggressive monetary stimulus to counter the housing crash, or from devaluing to restore competitiveness.
Looks like Spain is in very deep trouble. If the Euro doesn’t weaken in the next few months I can well see a major downturn in tourism from the UK
Richard
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The downturn has already happened. noticed it for the past two years. Hardly any British here in July and August and the place is dead after September…before the pound crashed. Not suprising the service sector has seen the largest job loss after the construction sector. Nice to see the place quiet but hey…I like a bit of ambiente!
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Both economies are brittle in the present circumstances. The UK has developed an overinflated financial sector that will and is being dealt a heavy blow. Spain’s economy is however going to be more adversely affected as construction, banking and tourism suffer massive hits. Rising unemployment and weaker ex-pat spending will create a further downward spiral.
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You certainly wouldn’t get much change from £3 for bitter and expect to pay more for lager.
I like the big mac index as a way of comparing the relative strength of currencies –
http://www.economist.com/markets/bigmac/index.cfm
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Interesting to see that 77% think Spain will have the biggest crash and only 23% expect the UK to be the biggest loser.
Despite the UK having to borrow enormous amounts from the IMF and Brits having the largest personal debt on the planet, UK banks with huge toxic debt, and the high street slowly dissapearing, it appears the members of this forum have great confidence in the UK economy. Car manufacturing closing for months on end, property prices dropping at a similar rate to Spain and banks directors about to take some large bonuses. To me, the UK seems about at the bottom.
Spain, has it’s problems we admit, but managed to dump most of it’s toxic debt at the door of the ECB. Spanish banks are fairing better than British ones, even swallowing UK banks up at bargain prices. Spanish personal debt is much lower than UK debt and the Spanish treasury had a large surplus going into the recession compared to the UK having several years of shortfall.
Apart from Estate Agents offices and a few bars, most of Spains high streets are relatively unscathed.
If the majority opinion is here is to be proven right, what areas of Spains industrial and financial sectors will start to crack first.?
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@Peter Good wrote:
If the majority opinion is here is to be proven right, what areas of Spains industrial and financial sectors will start to crack first.?
Spain (as also most of mailand Europe) are just lagging by about 6-12 months behind UK in the unravelling disaster.
UK will start to recover before Spain hits the bottom (I have no idea when the recovery starts).
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Going for broke – Bank of England just reduced interest rate to 1%.
“Some analysts have suggested that today’s cut will prove to be “pointless” and will fail to help lift Britain out of recession”.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/interestrates/4523940/Bank-of-England-cuts-interest-rates-by-0.5-per-cent.html -
A link from the same page
Bond scare as German auction fails and British debt hits danger level
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I voted for Spain falling harder than the UK but I would hardly call it a vote of confidence in the UK.
Whilst it is true that there is a lot of negative news surrounding the Uk economy there appears to be even worse bad news about the spanish economy if one is to believe broadsheet reports.
I would feel much more confident about Spain if it wasn’t in the eurozone. From what I have read influential bodies believe that Spain is shackled with the policies of the ECB and is unable to develop more appropriate policies for its own problems. The markets seem to think so as well. Over the last month the Euro has been dropping in value to sterling (in part because of the economic problems in the PIGS) and S&P have downgraded Spanish debt.
Having said all of that I don’t think anyone on this forum has a clue as to how all this will finish, we are all quessing
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Can anyone explain how a sterling a/c works.? I presume you put £s in but what if you then want to move the funds to your Euro a/c in the same bank? Do they give a good ex rate? Do they charge you? Curious because I am about to have quite a large sterling balance in my UK a/c with little hope of much more than 1-2% interest. With Bancaja I get about 4% on my euro a/c with no fees and instant access.
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Most banks are offering the sterling ones. Lots of small print and depends on the individual person’s circumstances. Residents are subject to a 18% witholding tax, and could be liable for more. Once they have your sterling and the term matures the money has to go into euro. Many are only for short term ie. 6 or 9 months. Myself I’ll stay off-shore 8)
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@hudson wrote:
Can anyone explain how a sterling a/c works.? I presume you put £s in but what if you then want to move the funds to your Euro a/c in the same bank? Do they give a good ex rate? Do they charge you? Curious because I am about to have quite a large sterling balance in my UK a/c with little hope of much more than 1-2% interest. With Bancaja I get about 4% on my euro a/c with no fees and instant access.
You actually get the fluid rate of the day, I have found by using ETT from my UK bank to my Spanish account the funds arive without any deduction whereas if done through a FX company they will take a cent or two.
The trick is to refuse the offer from your UK bank to transfer/buy Euro’s.
If you tell them to send pounds, they will automatically change into euro’s at the Spanish end at the exact rate at the time.
It is important to pay at the sending end for the ETT (around 20 pounds) or you will be charged a percentage at the recieving end.
Also you must send sufficient funds to attract the commercial rate (6000+ sterling)
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@katy wrote:
Most banks are offering the sterling ones. Lots of small print and depends on the individual person’s circumstances. Residents are subject to a 18% witholding tax, and could be liable for more. Once they have your sterling and the term matures the money has to go into euro. Many are only for short term ie. 6 or 9 months. Myself I’ll stay off-shore 8)
What rate are you getting katy and is that in Gib?
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Just read article about the ECB’s decision not to reduce their bank rate. In it the European economist at Barclays Capital quotes Spain as “imploding”. In the same article Graham Turner from GFC Economics states that “this is a major risk for euroland because the damage in Spain, Ireland and Eastern Europe is starting to panic people.”
Although I have no idea whether these comments are valid nor whether Spain is in any worse position than the UK, they certainly paint a very alarming economic picture of Spain
Richard
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Mr. Shoemaker won’t be able to deny but he might put a spin on it.
From Romanian newspaper it appears that there is a huge exodus of Romanians back to their country. I wonder who is going to pick up the strawberries and oranges in Spain…
http://www.iht.com/articles/2009/02/12/business/12recession.php
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@flosmichael wrote:
Mr. Shoemaker won’t be able to deny but he might put a spin on it.
From Romanian newspaper it appears that there is a huge exodus of Romanians back to their country. I wonder who is going to pick up the strawberries and oranges in Spain…
http://www.iht.com/articles/2009/02/12/business/12recession.php
There is no shortage of unemployed Estate Agents 😀
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katy
that explains why the UK supermarket ones are so tasteless. Sadly the PYO fields in UK are dying out fast. To dependant on weather conditions to make reliable profit i would guess?. So much tastier though, but sadly more and more want a pretty strawberry with no flavour it seems, and don’t want to get that nasty soil on their hands?
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@Fuengi wrote:
As far as I understand it, the only GM crops allowed in Europe are 1 or 2 species of Maize.
the strawberries should be ‘natural’
That’s what they want you to think! How long have you been eating seedless grapes? Nearly all crops are GM in some way or other and the ones that are not are imported. Nearly all livestock are fed on GM material. Without GM the world will starve.
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The bad news from Euroland is starting to show through.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2009/feb/13/eurozone-recession-germany
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@jwc wrote:
That’s what they want you to think! How long have you been eating seedless grapes? Nearly all crops are GM in some way or other and the ones that are not are imported. Nearly all livestock are fed on GM material. Without GM the world will starve.
seedless grapes have been cultivated comercially in europe for 200 years. And the world would not starve without GM, especially since they produce lower yields on average than ‘natural’ varieties.
sorry guys, won’t go off topic again
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And how do you think they are seedless, by genetically modifying them whether it be 2 days ago or 200 years ago. The same goes for cereals, 30 years ago they yielded about 1 ton per acre now wheat is in excess of 4 tons per acre. Whether you want to believe it or not you are eating GM food every day (or meat and fish which have been fed GM) and have been for a long time.
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An interesting article from the DT yesterday.
UK House prices ‘could fall by further 55 per cent’
“House prices may fall by a further 55 percent and there is a “very real probability” that Britain will be bankrupted, a leading investment bank has warned in a private note to clients. “
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I saw this story yesterday and have to say I take it with a pinch of salt.
The reports authors, Numis Securities, are a small investment bank with no particular track record of monitoring or predicting property price trends. What they do appear to have a good track record in is press releases designed to attract newspaper headlines. This is one such case.
I´m not saying that they don´t have a case. Rather that I´d be much more likely to believe any such argument if it came from a more reliable source.
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I was particularly interested in their reasoning behind the prediction.
Essentially, they and several other banks are predicting a big sell-off of BTL properties in the near future. Numis were really pointing out that certain areas of the UK where BTL properties are abundant could well be badly affected by such a large increase in housing stocks for sale.
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Peter,
I don´t think anyone seriously disputes that there will be a sell off of BTL properties or that the UK housing market still has some way to drop. What concerns me is the headline grabbing quote “Prices will drop by 55%”. It was in fact this that you chose to highlight in your post.
As I live in NL I have no financial interest in the UK property market. I really couldn´t care less what happens to prices there. I just get a bit ticked off by poor journalism which this IMO is.
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@brianc_li wrote:
Peter,
I don´t think anyone seriously disputes that there will be a sell off of BTL properties or that the UK housing market still has some way to drop. What concerns me is the headline grabbing quote “Prices will drop by 55%”. It was in fact this that you chose to highlight in your post.
As I live in NL I have no financial interest in the UK property market. I really couldn´t care less what happens to prices there. I just get a bit ticked off by poor journalism which this IMO is.
Yes the headline was most probably the choice of a DT sub editor and not necessarily the Numis report publisher.
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@brianc_li wrote:
Peter,
I don´t think anyone seriously disputes that there will be a sell off of BTL properties or that the UK housing market still has some way to drop. What concerns me is the headline grabbing quote “Prices will drop by 55%”. It was in fact this that you chose to highlight in your post.
As I live in NL I have no financial interest in the UK property market. I really couldn´t care less what happens to prices there. I just get a bit ticked off by poor journalism which this IMO is.
I glanced at the article in yesterdays Mail also, and was it not a prediction that prices had fallen 20% and this was another 55%, therefore making 75% peak to trough, which really seems a bit crack pot IMO.
I think they also said then there would be 6 million people in negative equity but if that was the case, it would be more like 95% of folk in negative equity.
I think the Mail and the Telegraph love a bit of scaremongering, and love the crisis even more than they loved the boom.
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On one hand some index of Spanish economy falls by 30% in one year
On the other hand the UK car indutry falls 59% in one year
And Germany is keeping in touch
http://uk.biz.yahoo.com/20032009/323/german-recession-worse-ministry.html
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I saw this article and it does seem excessive re the prediction but what would be worrying would be if they only got it half right or more.
Regarding the Buy to Let investors, there do seem to be quite a lot dumping their properties now, or at least intending to.
Those Wilsons from Kent who own 700 were talking a while ago about getting shot of at least a third of their portfolio which would rock the Ashford market quite a bit.
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@katy wrote:
Minister for Tourism figures out today show another steep fall in this area. (February) compared with last.
18.6% down, 17% less Spanish visitors, 20.6% less Foreign.
Wasn’t someone disputing what I said about the place being quiet?
And Brits are 23.4% less. No wonder I could purchase £50 roundtrip tickets to Barcelona for August…
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http://www.diariosur.es/20090328/malaga/inmobiliarias-venden-bancos-quieren-20090328.html
“Agents sell Property that the banks do not want”
…Discounts of around 30%
…Most have been re-posessed from Developers
…Morales an Agent says there are “opportunities” but not bargains
…Optimistic though, when the stock has been sold, prices will rise.Problem is those 30% reductions are from Developers overpriced figure. They were still increasing them last year!
Scroll down page and see some of the “offers” on the right 🙄
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Another one!
http://www.diariosur.es/20090328/malaga/viviendas-embargadas-encuentran-salida-20090328.html
Properties auctioned by the Courts remain unsold. The auctions are held in an informal meeting room of the Court. Rarely more than two people turn up. Sometimes owners of the property attend, crying and pleading for more time to pay. They can discharge the debt right to the last minute if they pay arrears and court costs.
Banks wait 3 months before starting legal proceedings. State that it is different from 1993 as whole new blocks are going for auction and all were overvalued.
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@Inez wrote:
And many properties are still technically illegal without their final licenses. Owners in distress cannot sell them, the banks cant either!
Such a sorry mess!
I am wondering if a buyer who does not retire in the next year should even think of buying before say 2011… The mess is getting deeper, there are 100 of thoussands of issues to be solved and no solutions.
The prices from Diario Sur are crazy and the illegality issue is the cherry on top. -
I would think that people retiring with plans to buy in the sun still will do so, just with caution, but no less speed.
There are buyers out here, obviously no where near as many as the boom years, but a more sensible 2nd home and retirement buyer.
People dont want to hold their lives up, whats the point?
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@Inez wrote:
People dont want to hold their lives up, whats the point?
In principle there is no point holding lives up.
But in the current condition:
-all the real estates go down in price worldwide. Maybe USA is at the point of (almost) bottom prices but there are other issues there.
– there is no reason to believe that the prices will go up anytime soon.This is valid worldwide but in the case of Spain one can add the uncertainty whether the properties are legal or not plus the oversurplus of 1 million+ properties.
I am planning to go for work and holiday for one month in Spain in July-August, I shall probably decide then whereas I shall still maintain my interest in buying in Spain or not…
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@katy wrote:
http://www.diariosur.es/20090328/malaga/inmobiliarias-venden-bancos-quieren-20090328.html
“Agents sell Property that the banks do not want”
…Discounts of around 30%
…Most have been re-posessed from Developers
…Morales an Agent says there are “opportunities” but not bargains
…Optimistic though, when the stock has been sold, prices will rise.Problem is those 30% reductions are from Developers overpriced figure. They were still increasing them last year!
Scroll down page and see some of the “offers” on the right 🙄
For some genuine auction (unfortunately in USA) you can go to
Should we expect for something like this in Spain in say 18 months from now?
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You will only see open auctions of foreclosed properties from bank stock when the banks finally accept this method.
Open auctions are not common in Spain and the Spanish do not understand that system.
Maybe this time around they will have to go down this route, but at the moment not – they will sit on stock and try to sell it privately!
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According to the latest report from the OECD, the West’s leading economic institution, “Britain will escape with one of the shallowest recessions in the rich world”. It goes on to say that this is “largely as a result of the Bank of England’s decision to cut interest rates sharply to just above zero and the fall in the pound since last year.”
All seems very confusing as it is at odds with a recent report from the IMF
Richard
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I believe the original article was from yesterday with an update from today (but I do appreciate where you are coming from 😆 😆 😆 )
the link to the article is below
Richard
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@rt21 wrote:
I believe the original article was from yesterday with an update from today (but I do appreciate where you are coming from 😆 😆 😆 )
the link to the article is below
Richard
These people could not or wanted not to predict the current situation and they expect us to believe their junky current predictions??
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I found another link which also supports the telegraph link and this was from yesterday.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2009/mar/31/economy-oecd-recession-g20
For a moment I thought I might have been caught by a spoof article
Richard
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Noticed some of these newspapers like Telegraph and Express are now beginning to talk things up because they are suffering huge loss of advertising revenue by guess who? The Telegraph even admitted it on late night news paper reviews, they’ve shot themselves in the foot and have woken up late.
UK and overseas estate agents and Developers, as well as furniture suppliers etc or anything to do with a buoyant property market. Plus the sale of papers is well down on normal.
So, the media cannot be trusted, anything to sell papers as always and boost their revenues.
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Yes, probably why they didn’t publish the photo of Suzanne handing in the petition. The Telegraph was one of the worse for publishing “articles” a few years ago about off-plan resorts and next best thing resorts.
I read an article in the Daily Mail last week, nothing but blatent advertising for Dubai and the World development. All the celebs are buying there….ya ya. No mention that things are bad there too. One person I know moved there in 2007 and returned to Spain last December. Another from the UK lost his bank job and has had to hand the keys to the bank, couldn’t sell it. Also no info’ that it costs around £10 for a glass of wineetc
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Katy, I always thought the Telegraph was one of the more trusted newspapers unlike headlining liars like the Express who get fined for it.
However my view of the Telegraph has changed as they are just chasing the revenues without considering misleading readers, they even mentioned the UK property market ‘re-ignited in March’ because mortgage lending had risen a bit, mind you from next to nothing on previous months.
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With an economy that was based on property sold on to North Europeans who were milking their homes for equity or senior citizens selling up in the IK buying into the dream of a place in Spain, then Spain will continue on a downward spiral. No one can raise dosh on their house in the UK (which is dropping in value anyway). Retirement dreams too extend a lot further these days than joining the Bowls Club on a Costa somewhere to live out your last days. As depression/recession bites further, Spain will go out of fashion and the Costa years will be seen as a historical blip that will go the same way as two weeks in Blackpool for Manchester mill workers.
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Hi Dallas
I am not sure that the Spanish market was based on Northern European buyers coming to Spain. The Spanish indigenous market was and still is by far the larger proportion of buyers in Spain and as far as I remember two years ago represented more than 90% of property sales (perhaps not in the CDS but certainly Nationwide)
However what was of concern even 3 years ago was the banks willing to give mortgages based on 40% of monthly income – ie if you earned €2,000 a month you could effectively borrow to €800 a month. 3 years ago with interest rates at a low point this represented a mortgage of 160,000 or thereabouts – which is 6.5 times basic salary
Therein lies your main problem with the Spanish market.
Euribor shot up to 5+% with interest rates following meaning that instead of representing 40% of salary it now represented 55%+ of their salary a massive jump.
The problem is that Spanish people dont earn a huge amount (minimum wage is about €750 per month and average wage is about €1,100 a month) so they borrowed taking out personal loans with guarantees from family members (parents uncles etc) acting as guarantor, to cover the additional cost of taxes and equity etc.
So now they are being squeezed (like everyone) and because the Spanish banking system is slow to react to rate changes (my bank told me yesterday I have to wait until April to come down and then it isn’t by nearly anything compared to the drop in Euribor , and my rate is tied to Euribor plus 0.55%) so the net result is that people just dont have any money whatsoever.
It is a primary fault of the banks for lending so irresponsibly that this mess is happening (in some cases four years ago they didn’t even check you had the ability to repay – I know of cases of people who were unemployed and still got a mortgage – go figure.)
So whilst I dont dispute that there is a major problem I dont think it is due to foreigners buying or not, that will have minor effect as it represents (ed) only a small percentage of the market.
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As to whether the UK or Spain will fall the hardest –
Spain has a new industry replacing construction – renewable energy. Last year Spain was the Fastest growing in the world for installing both solar and Wind Power and lie second now only to Germany for Installed solar plants and installed Wind and it is set to continue growing (although capacity limits on Solar are meant to slow this down the limit has been reached in three separate quarters when the limit is reached the tariff is reduced – but they dont stop the projects – just provide a lower feed in tariff)
Last year 1,000 MW of solar were installed (the up until the previous year the total install base was 691MW so last year represented a 160% increase on everything done since 1990 or thereabouts.
With wind this s set to grow again. Wind installed last year was 16,000MW and it is estimated a further 2-3,000MW will be installed this year.
There a lots of institutional investors ploughing money into Spain, Italy, Greece and French Renewable energy. It will take a while to filter through to jobs (especially in wind because the approval process is at least 3 years)
Last year renewable energy construction represented (I believe and I cannot remember where I found this) some 8% of employment in Spain with many from the construction sector stepping over.
o give an idea of the scale – to construct a 2MW park (remember there were 1,000MW built just in2008 alone) requires approximately 50 people full time installing plus all the earth moving before hand. Then there are the supply companies (electrical cable,panel manufacturers, Inverter manufacturers transportation companies)
At the height of the development last year (June through to Sept 28th deadline) people were literally moving teams of hundreds around to finish the projects before the deadline (whereby if they didn’t complete they effectively lost the licence and would not obtain the feed in tariff meaning they lost millions in application and development costs)
It may not be set to replace all those jobs just yet but a fair amount of jobs are being created. Spain (unlike Britain) is on target to achieve its 2020 objectives for renewable energy (last count they were 12.5% of energy produced being from renewable sources)
For this reason I dont think Spain will be hit as hard as we might expect it to be. I sincerely hope not as I live here and love it here. But it remains to be seen.
By the way there is plenty of money around – its just not going to the little man or where it is mos needed (investment in the solar industry last year was around €7bn in Spain alone)
Good luck one and all – maybe I am being optimistic but thats my sunny disposition
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I don’t have any figures to quote but I would go with Dallas. It has been stated a few times in the news that most Spanish buyers have been out ot the market for a few years. I think if anyone did some research it would show that the boom was led by foreign investment.
He is right about the “bowls” stuff too. Spain is stuck in a rut.
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Hi Katy
I do agree that it was investors and speculators who drove theprices up and staarted the boom. I will also concede that foreign investors helped topush the prices up, but I still say that the majority of buyers were Spanish. Even the spculators.
I can only talk from experience (and that means this small area of La Safor and Marina Alta) but of the developers I know locally (3 of them as friends) I would say at least 6% or more of their clients were Spanish investors. One in particular (a fairly well known local builder with a good reputation who is now diversifying into Bio fuels) had his developments sold out before the paper was dry – and all from hgis contacts of people. Mind you each of his developments was no more than 30 apartments
Of the bigger ones in Denia and thereabouts I would certainly agree a lot were sold to foreigners – but still maintain that the majority were Spanish buyers
The difference being I think is that the Spanish investors are in here on the ground floor and will put their money into constructions at the outset (usually due to links with the developer) whereas most foreigners do not have this luxury. But not always
Anyway this is purely my experience here in this small zone and I am know it is a different world down on CDS (I spent a month there in December/January) so will agree to differ on this
Best regards and nice to see you are still active on here
Vince
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The comparison is probably a lot closer now after Darling’s budget and the IMF forecast for the UK.
Capital Economics say that UK property prices are still overvalued by 20-25% in relation to earnings to prices, and they expect further large falls in the UK this year and next despite more interest in the market at present.
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@angie wrote:
The comparison is probably a lot closer now after Darling’s budget and the IMF forecast for the UK.
Capital Economics say that UK property prices are still overvalued by 20-25% in relation to earnings to prices, and they expect further large falls in the UK this year and next despite more interest in the market at present.
It is also predicted that the lebel of debt of 40% of UK GDP will be attained again only by 2032 (after skyrocketting to possibly 100% in the next few years) . So our kids are stuffed too, now it is our grand children day to save the day in about 30 years from now…
I guess house prices will be the least worry.
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I think Spain will suffer more than the UK because it relies heavily on construction and tourism. With 1 million unsold properties in Spain, the current exchange rate makes investing in Spanish property and holidaying in Spain as well as general living costs etc too expensive, plus prohibitive Spanish property purchase costs and extortionate estate agent commissions in the price, and not forgetting the general build quality of flats and townhouses is much worse than even Wimpey Developments in the UK.
That said, property prices in both countries may well fall further over the next 2 years so too early to commit.
But just my opinion maybe 😉
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@katy wrote:
The European Commission states that Spain will be the last country to come out of recession.
As foreign-purchased property and tourism is a big part of the Spanish economy, it makes sense.
But then why would Cyprus and Greece fare better?
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Maybe the UK before Spain!
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There was some very positive coverage of the UK property market on the Today program (BBC Radio4) this morning. It does sound like UK property is recovering, albeit slowly.
I must say, I’m quite surprised that UK property hasn’t fallen further, and cannot help but think this is just a temporary state, but who knows 🙂
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@El anciano wrote:
There was some very positive coverage of the UK property market on the Today program (BBC Radio4) this morning. It does sound like UK property is recovering, albeit slowly.
I must say, I’m quite surprised that UK property hasn’t fallen further, and cannot help but think this is just a temporary state, but who knows 🙂
The truth is that British economy cannot stop the downfall before the house prices stabilize. The VI propaganda is aware of this and tries to ramp it up as much as they could.
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I’ve just read Edward Hugh’s recent economic blog on Spain and it doesn’t make good reading for those who rely on income from employment in Spain.
I think if one of his possible unemployment projections of 25% to 30% of the labour force is correct then there may well be public disquiet and an associated rise in crime.
Hope GB doesn’t get into that state otherwise using Private Fraser’s immortal words ” We’re doomed, I say. Doomed’
Richard
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