Real Estate Facts

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This topic contains 34 replies, has 12 voices, and was last updated by Profile photo of peterhun peterhun 6 years, 4 months ago.

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  • #55781
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    Hello All

    I have been reading a few of the comments in the past 3 years and I think we should look at FACTS.
    Here in the US, we can see a real drop in real estate prices. Florida, California, Nevada and Arizona are the hardest hit. 50 to 60% drop. The rest of the states not much better

    I can give you real facts. I own 2 homes in Florida, one in Scottsdale Arizona , and one in Sacramento California. All have dropped 50% plus.

    Now another fact. I have been watching 69 properties in Costa del sol. In Kyero, Fotocasa, and Idealista.(my favorite list)
    In the past 3 years out of 69 , 2 were either sold or taken of the market, one I purchased, one dropped 3% , leaves 65 that did not drop their prices one iota. None of those sellers got the email that we are in a crisis.
    I am still looking to invest in another house in Costa Del Sol, so I keep an eye on those 65 and more properties.

    So is the market better? Worse? I guess some agents would like to paint a rosy picture, and some are aware of the crisis, but can’t do much about it. Is the glass half full or half empty.
    Those are the facts

    Regards
    David

  • #100131
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    Price is what one is willing to pay & other willing to accept. The advantage of real estate is that if you dont need to sell in a hurry than the increase or decrease is acadamic.

  • #100132
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    Hello Shakeel

    Long time no talk.

    I agree with your statement. However , the prices did not move at all in the last 3 years in Costa Del Sol.
    I put one of my homes in Florida on Craigslist in Paris and Malaga. I got 45 bites and one offer within 4 days. I priced it right and I got an offer (accepted and in Euros (lol) Now I need the right price to buy another house in Costa Del Sol area.

    Have a great day.

    @shakeel wrote:

    Price is what one is willing to pay & other willing to accept. The advantage of real estate is that if you dont need to sell in a hurry than the increase or decrease is acadamic.

  • #100133
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    bentdavi,

    Prices do not move in Spain because I believe the vast majority of sellers believe it’s only a matter of time until conditions improve and hence they sit on a price optimistically hoping the upturn is around the corner.

    The problem is that, I believe the oversupply is far more than statistics would indicate. Also one thing I never quite understand is that once a house is built, it’s there to provide a roof over ones head for decades, or even centuries. So the argument of over supply being mopped up never sits nicely with me. Oversupply can only be mopped up if future buyers exceed sellers.

    For the next decade we are looking at a period of austerity so holiday homes will be in less demand than the last one, in addition the population of Europe is predicted to fall by around 100 million by 2050. The conveyer belt of life will also mean that those falling off the end will provide a property for those that wish to retire in the sunny Mediterranean meaning that retirement demand is static.

    Social security payments for many unemployed Spanish will expire within the next 6~12 months.

    It’s really very simple:-

    Demand is not going to increase over and above supply and hence prices will crash when the factors that enable sellers to sit and hold expire. The ability to hold beyond a year or two for most individuals is extremely small.

    Come back in another 12 months and see where we are!

  • #100134
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    Bentdevi: Indeed long time no speak. I hope all is well. I did not know that Craig list could be useful in global terms. I always got the impression that it is Ok for obtaining local, regional services.

  • #100135
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    Hello Shak.

    Craigslist.com is not as widely known in Europe, but well known all over the world. And it is free.
    It is the best thing since sliced bread.
    If it is not on craigslist, it does not exist. lol

    @shakeel wrote:

    Bentdevi: Indeed long time no speak. I hope all is well. I did not know that Craig list could be useful in global terms. I always got the impression that it is Ok for obtaining local, regional services.

  • #100137
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    Facts are, I’m afraid, very scarce in the Spanish property market. The official figures are laughable and even figures from the best of the independent analysts, Tinsa, need to be taken with a very large pinch of salt.

    Truth is that nobody, myself included, truly knows where the market actually is other that it is in a pretty dire state. This is my view after having followed the market pretty closely now for a couple of years:

    – Most asking prices, even those of bank repos, are laughable and should be ignored.
    – Off-plan builds should be avoided at all costs. You should also be very wary of any new builds even if complete.
    – Actual prices have fallen around 30% from peak. There are of course variations from area to area and in property types.
    – Prices look set to fall for at least another year, probably longer.
    – Other factors such as demise of the euro or sovereign debt default COULD cause a major correction.
    – Don’t buy for investment only. You’ll almost certainly lose money.

    I must stress that this is my own view. No doubt some others will disagree.

  • #100139
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    brainc_li : I agree with all your postings. This is what I find curious that people make predictions either way as to the direction of the market.

    Not having any valid information allowing for margin of error and further second guessing world events econimical/political is not very wise.

  • #100140
    Profile photo of Aunty Val
    Aunty Val
    Participant

    If you want some facts, here’s a few.

    Average rate of € per square meter (built) for my area (inland Malaga) over the last few years:

    2007 – €1,769
    2008 – €1,871
    2009 – €1,278
    2010 – €1,228

    Yes, its a limited area and yes, its a limited number of properties (around 90 offers) but you can see just how much lower offers are compared with previous years.

    The problem with the vast majority of websites is that they only show asking prices and (from my stats) I can confirm that over the last 4 years, the average offer is 10% below asking price although this stands at 15% for 2010.

    The other problem with websites is that lazy agents will leave old stuff on them without changing prices, taking sold ones off and therefore they do not truly reflect what is happening on the ground.

    Yes 2010 has been a better year than 2009. July and August are quiet but we are starting to see a few enquiries coming in for the autumn.

  • #100141
    Profile photo of angie
    angie
    Spectator

    David, if only the US would relax it’s rules and allow Pensioners and those able to support themselves from the UK and other acceptable countries to live in the US, or, longer than the 6 months they allow. I’d like a property there but not for limited use.

    I think many would then buy in the US which would help that property market, I know they’re afraid of the terrorist threat but it seems a bit over the top.

  • #100142
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    Hello Angie

    I am very surprised of your statement. I have seen thousand of French buying in the US , mostly in Florida, where prices have gone down drastically. 50 to 60 % , None seem to have any issues with their Visa, as long as you don’t work in the US , you are allowed to live here. I have multiple friends here in Scottsdale that have been here for years (they don’t need a green card to just live here).
    Just FYI, if you are willing to buy and hold on to a house for about 4 years, your investment will double.
    Leasing your house is very lucrative, they lease within a couple of days.
    In Florida, and Las Vegas, they are down by 60%, Banks are unloading fast, French are making a killing here.
    In areas like Fort Myers Florida, one out of every 4 houses are Bank owned. Going for 40 cents to a dollar and Banks PAY for closing costs.
    David

    @angie wrote:

    David, if only the US would relax it’s rules and allow Pensioners and those able to support themselves from the UK and other acceptable countries to live in the US, or, longer than the 6 months they allow. I’d like a property there but not for limited use.

    I think many would then buy in the US which would help that property market, I know they’re afraid of the terrorist threat but it seems a bit over the top.

  • #100143
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    Correction..

    As low as 20 cents to the dollar.

    Example , I purchased a house near Tampa , new built in 2006 for $465.000. I paid $100.000

  • #100144
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    “I know they’re afraid of the terrorist threat but it seems a bit over the top “
    They are paranoid. They have been creating havoc around the world for decades like a bully boy. Some one had the guts to slap the bully boy. The bully boy now dont know how to react.

    Forum users will recall the IRA attack in the city. No Irish were hounded out of UK or their entry was denied nor was any Irish club/bar was closed down. ( Not to mention that it is a well known the Irish Americans were bank rolling the IRA )

  • #100145
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    Shak

    I agree with statement “a bit over the top”

    However I disagree with the rest , We do know how to react , But our president has nothing in his pant.
    He is an empty suit.

    @shakeel wrote:

    “I know they’re afraid of the terrorist threat but it seems a bit over the top “
    They are paranoid. They have been creating havoc around the world for decades like a bully boy. Some one had the guts to slap the bully boy. The bully boy now dont know how to react.

    Forum users will recall the IRA attack in the city. No Irish were hounded out of UK or their entry was denied nor was any Irish club/bar was closed down. ( Not to mention that it is a well known the Irish Americans were bank rolling the IRA )

  • #100150
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    I dont want to high jack the subject. I think the President that you are talking about is the one who did not have much in between his ears.

  • #100167
    Profile photo of angie
    angie
    Spectator

    David, I really had no idea that anyone could just live there, I felt sure it was for a max of 6 months, is this just a Florida thing or generally all over the States?

  • #100168
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    Hello Angie

    I do know that at least in Florida and Arizona, I do have friends from France that have been here for the past 10 years. Some came in as investors (investment of $40.000 min) A house purchase may considered as investment.
    Some opened small businesses.
    Besides UK is US’s best friend, if anyone is welcome , it will most likely be Brits.

    David

    @angie wrote:

    David, I really had no idea that anyone could just live there, I felt sure it was for a max of 6 months, is this just a Florida thing or generally all over the States?

  • #100174
    Profile photo of katy
    katy
    Spectator

    The above is completely wrong, all of it. Just being from the USA doesn’t make you an immigration expert. If anyone disputes this the ex-pat Florida and USA forums should be read.

  • #100175
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    @katy wrote:

    The above is completely wrong, all of it. Just being from the USA doesn’t make you an immigration expert. If anyone disputes this the ex-pat Florida and USA forums should be read.

    Hello Katy

    No , I am not an Immigration expert. I am just stating that at least 10 of my friends here in Arizona, and 6 of my friends in Florida are from France and they purchased houses in both states. They do live here as long as they don’t work . If any of them needed to work then they will need a green card. Else they can live here just as long as they are not a burden to US.
    Perhaps they may have a special visa from France US Embassy.

  • #100176
    Profile photo of katy
    katy
    Spectator

    They may be there but they are illegal. A house purchase is not considered for an investment Visa. Buying a business gets you a temporary visa. The business has to show an owner benefit of cerca $75,000 pa. The business is reviewed every 2 or 5 years, not showing enough profit and employing Americans, the Visa is withdrawn. France has the same USA visa requirements as every other country.

    The only visa anyone can hope to get is a B-2 which is what we have and gives us 6 months stay and 6 months out. Someone I know well has just had a book published re. visas and moving to the USA. For sale on Amazon. If it were easy I would have been there about 6 years ago 🙂

  • #100177
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    @katy wrote:

    They may be there but they are illegal. A house purchase is not considered for an investment Visa. Buying a business gets you a temporary visa. The business has to show an owner benefit of cerca $75,000 pa. The business is reviewed every 2 or 5 years, not showing enough profit and employing Americans, the Visa is withdrawn. France has the same USA visa requirements as every other country.

    The only visa anyone can hope to get is a B-2 which is what we have and gives us 6 months stay and 6 months out. Someone I know well has just had a book published re. visas and moving to the USA. For sale on Amazon. If it were easy I would have been there about 6 years ago 🙂

    FYI

    NONE of them are illegal. Two of them have very small businesses, I doubt seriously they are making a $75K profit.
    One of those , have a 10 Year Visa for business.
    I am not arguing your facts , I am merely stating what I know and see here by those examples.

  • #100178
    Profile photo of katy
    katy
    Spectator

    One of those , have a 10 Year Visa for business.

    Quite a feat seeing as there are no 10 year visas for business.

    I suggest you scroll down this page and read about different visas or check out your own countries website.

    http://www.thefloridaforums.com/forum/index.php

  • #100179
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    @katy wrote:

    One of those , have a 10 Year Visa for business.

    Quite a feat seeing as there are no 10 year visas for business.

    I suggest you scroll down this page and read about different visas or check out your own countries website.

    http://www.thefloridaforums.com/forum/index.php

    He has been here for 7 years now , and I just called him , he has another 3 years left on his visa.
    Now , there is a possibility that thing may have changed lately.
    I do however detect some aggressiveness in your replies.
    Perhaps you would like me to give your email address to my friends , and they may share with you all the details of their status here.

  • #100180
    Profile photo of peterhun
    peterhun
    Participant

    katy is quite right. Getting a Visa for the USA is very difficult, bentdavi you are talking rubbish.
    Screw around with American immigration and you will end up in a high security jail with some real nasty creatures. One British guy got picked up on the way to the airport (departing US) and he spent months in jail feeling his life was in danger.
    Being British will get you zero ‘benefit of the doubt’.

    One of my employees (we are a US company) entered the US multiple times on a 3month visa stays (he was working). Immigration picked him up on the third visit. We could only get him on a short term visa, getting visa, even for crucial staff is difficult and they are time limited to a few years.

    BTW, Canada is going to up its minimum investment figure to $1million Canadian, the UK figure is £1million investment requirement. Don’t know the USA figure, but I expect it to be at least $1million.

    Perhaps you would like me to give your email address to my friends , and they may share with you all the details of their status here.

    I would advise anyone to check online with the many information sites about applying for a US visa’s and ignore anything else..

  • #100181
    Profile photo of katy
    katy
    Spectator

    I am not at all aggressive, I am just pointing out you are very mistaken but still you persist in giving out false information when a child could google and find out.

    Here is another one for you.

    http://london.usembassy.gov/e.html

  • #100183
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    This discussion is a bit like the guy next to me on my flight to Spain earlier this month telling me that as long as a UK registered car is taxed and MOTed in the UK you can drive it in Spain for as long as you like. He was registered as resident in Spain! Car insured with a Spanish company.

    He had no idea of the real EU agreement about use of EU registered cars for a maximum of 6 months in another EU country OR matriculation necessary if Spanish resident.

    Just because he drives a car illegally (unknowingly) he assumes it’s allowed under the rules and tells others what the rules allow!!

    Anyone who thinks you can live in America permanently if you own a property so long as you do not work ………..!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  • #100185
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    This is typical. American behaviour ignorance & arrogance.

  • #100187
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    This is very much like the barstool Real Estate Expert; in any ex-pat bar on the coast. Knows more about Spanish real estate than anybody else so you have to take his word for it.
    How many people have been taken for a ride by the bar stool expert? I shudder to think!

  • #100189
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    And how many people have been taken for a ride by Spanish “justice” when it comes to being screwed by the system?

    Bar stool experts pale in significance in comparison.

  • #100191
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    Uhh Uhh – this is a hot topic – property in the U.S.

    We were considering to buy a house in Florida some time ago- forget about it.
    The statement with permission to live there for only 180 days a year ist absolute right.

    If you look at this foreclosures – most of them are terrible, no ventilation/climatisation for month in connection with high hummidity,
    you can imagen how they smell and look like from the inside – really disgusting.
    They have no electricity no maintanance as the banks don´t want to pay for it and the former owner left the house.

    And then immigration – it´s an absolute highlight at least for me personnaly.
    These guys are absolute crazy.

    I used to visit the states for more than 15 years at least once a year.
    But, it might be ten years ago, they startet to get really crazy.

    When I entered the U.S., I think it was in Chicago when it first happened, and showed my passport the lady starred at me, pressed a button and some flashing light went on.
    I was aked not to move and was then guided by two armed immigration officers to a office where I had to stay for nearly 3 hours.
    Then my passport was handed back and I was told that I´m allowed to travel on, no excuse no reason nothing even when I asked for a reason.
    Happyly I found my unattended lugage near the belt – but my conecting flight to dallas of course was gone.

    Since then, I think it´s now for 10 years, everytime the same procedure when I visit the states.
    I always ask why they do this double check – no answer, no reason.
    I asked them what I have to do to change that – I was told they never gone change that, no chance.

    Then we did this preregistration via the net from home.
    The result was that he last time we were there, my wife and our two kids had to follow this crazy guys as well.

    It´s a beautyfull country but we avoid to go there anymore.
    My family tells me the travel time is far to long: 10 hours flight + 3-4 hours immigration office 😥

  • #100193
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    My brother and nephew had the same experience. They were members of a crew in a sailing championship, had all the documents to prove it but were still pulled over by USA immigration and kept for several hours, no explanation. Also missed their connecting flight.

    A couple of years ago at Charles de Gaulle airport, I watched as they made an elderly Frenchman in a wheelchair stand up aided by security guys because the bleep went off (metal in the wheelchair??), and remove his shoes and belt resulting in his trousers falling down around his ankles much to his and everyone else’s embarrassment.
    Incidentally they meanwhile let a Muslim lady walk through in the ‘full gear’ without so much as a quick pat-down. I don’t understand what goes on at airports anymore.

  • #100197
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    As one of a senior travel executive pointed out. “They just want our money they dont wish us to travel there” He also said as a follow on that he feels the best way is to forward them the money by what ever method we decide.

  • #100198
    Profile photo of katy
    katy
    Spectator

    Never had a problem entering the US and have been almost yearly since the 80’s. Lot of procedures, fingerprints and eye recognition which can take time. We prefer to fly with a US airline as there tends to be more Americans on board and they enter through a different lane which reduces the immigration line.

    As one of a senior travel executive pointed out. “They just want our money they dont wish us to travel there”

    Shakeel that is said about Spain too “They want to sell houses to Foreigners but they don’t want us to live in them “

  • #100219
    Profile photo of logan
    logan
    Participant

    Compared to Europe US property is very reasonable. However what makes re-locating to the USA unattractive for retired Europeans is the cost of suitable long term health care and property taxes.

  • #100233
    Profile photo of peterhun
    peterhun
    Participant

    Plus, obviously, the impossibility of actually living there all year round.

    Investment is another issue, though.

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