Random Price Moves — UP and DOWN

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This topic contains 47 replies, has 11 voices, and was last updated by Profile photo of Anonymous Anonymous 5 years, 8 months ago.

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  • #56149
    Profile photo of adiep
    adiep
    Participant

    For some reason, Ive now seen several properties on fotocasa which have displayed the weirdest price changes I can imagine.

    Not sure if I should post the links to the properties, but here is the scenario.

    4 Bed House: Starting market price – 400k, then 390k, then 300k, then 270k, then 400k, then 290k, then and I think right now its 310k.

    3 Bed house: Starting market price – 315k, then 305k, then 290k, then 240k, now sat at 270k.

    What this all about??

    I have a couple of theories, but dont really know. Perhaps they are dropping heavily to see if there are any contacts, then raising again seeing if they can keep the fish on the hook. Or perhaps is this some kind of price discovery method?

    Any of our agents (or others) have any thoughts?

  • #103200
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    My stab in the dark on this would be:

    4 bed house: the moment it went to 270,000, it brought in all the “looking-for-under-300,000 euros” purchasers, probably brought in a little flurry of ‘lookers’ and therefore made the owner feel he/she had it on too cheap and put the price back up a bit.

    Same with the 3 bed house, as soon as it slipped under the 250,000 price bracket, the same scenario.

    Most purchasers log their ‘up to…’ price with internet co’s and agents.

  • #103377
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    My stab in the dark on this would be:

    4 bed house: the moment it went to 270,000, it brought in all the “looking-for-under-300,000 euros” purchasers, probably brought in a little flurry of ‘lookers’ and therefore made the owner feel he/she had it on too cheap and put the price back up a bit.

    Same with the 3 bed house, as soon as it slipped under the 250,000 price bracket, the same scenario.

    Most purchasers log their ‘up to…’ price with internet co’s and agents.

  • #103212
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    I have my apartment on fotocasa for 199k Euros, originally at 220k (I think). Back in the peak 300k would have been achievable.

    It has been on fotocasa since Sept 2010 and these are the fotocasa stats

    Han visto tu inmueble: 163 personas
    Han visto tu teléfono: 6 personas

    Those 6 individuals that have looked at my telephone number, well 2 are me, 1 was idealista, 1 was some scammer. So probably 2 people have looked at my phone number. No one has contacted me.

    Now I am biased, but my apartment is one of the best in the resort and front-line, there are not many for sale and similar ones to mine can be seen at 250k. Selling my previous inferior apartment in 2009 was relatively easier and marketing it a low price achieved a result very quickly, it certainly got a few people to contact me to enquire.

    Even though 2009 was considerably into the recession I don’t think people appreciated how bad it was going to be and hence were tempted to buy when they saw what they perceived to be large discounts.

    Today is completely different people are well aware of the real situation. My experience with my current apartment tells me that simply no-one is buying.

    I had the thought (briefly) to reduce mine to something silly say 120~150k to see if anyone contacts me, but then decided against it as it would be hassle if they contact me by phone ( I am in the UK) rather than email. Also as I have absolutely no intention of selling it less than 200k (unless the pound falls even further) I thought it would be a tad misleading.

    BUT….. in dropping to a ridiculously low price and still having no enquires would really confirm that there are no buyers, so maybe this is what you have seen some one just testing to see what price people start enquiring, without any intention of selling at that price as they have no need to sell.

  • #103383
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    I have my apartment on fotocasa for 199k Euros, originally at 220k (I think). Back in the peak 300k would have been achievable.

    It has been on fotocasa since Sept 2010 and these are the fotocasa stats

    Han visto tu inmueble: 163 personas
    Han visto tu teléfono: 6 personas

    Those 6 individuals that have looked at my telephone number, well 2 are me, 1 was idealista, 1 was some scammer. So probably 2 people have looked at my phone number. No one has contacted me.

    Now I am biased, but my apartment is one of the best in the resort and front-line, there are not many for sale and similar ones to mine can be seen at 250k. Selling my previous inferior apartment in 2009 was relatively easier and marketing it a low price achieved a result very quickly, it certainly got a few people to contact me to enquire.

    Even though 2009 was considerably into the recession I don’t think people appreciated how bad it was going to be and hence were tempted to buy when they saw what they perceived to be large discounts.

    Today is completely different people are well aware of the real situation. My experience with my current apartment tells me that simply no-one is buying.

    I had the thought (briefly) to reduce mine to something silly say 120~150k to see if anyone contacts me, but then decided against it as it would be hassle if they contact me by phone ( I am in the UK) rather than email. Also as I have absolutely no intention of selling it less than 200k (unless the pound falls even further) I thought it would be a tad misleading.

    BUT….. in dropping to a ridiculously low price and still having no enquires would really confirm that there are no buyers, so maybe this is what you have seen some one just testing to see what price people start enquiring, without any intention of selling at that price as they have no need to sell.

  • #103214
    Profile photo of katy
    katy
    Spectator

    JP1 I don’t think many are buying either, whatever the stats and agents say. I base this on knowing about 20 people who are trying to sell….and have been for years. All have reduced and some are willing to negotiate even lower but they don’t even get viewings which shows a decided lack of interest from buyers.

  • #103384
    Profile photo of katy
    katy
    Spectator

    JP1 I don’t think many are buying either, whatever the stats and agents say. I base this on knowing about 20 people who are trying to sell….and have been for years. All have reduced and some are willing to negotiate even lower but they don’t even get viewings which shows a decided lack of interest from buyers.

  • #103222
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    When we were considering buying, one of the things that put us off was not just the properties being handled by every agent in town, but also the varying prices on view for the same house. it was as if they just thought of a number. The beauty of this is that I would use the lowest price possible and use this as my benchmark for a discounted offer – the logic being that ‘ no one pays anywhere near asking price these days’.

    So ultimately it seems to work against the seller (who only has one property to sell), whilst the agents just crank up their listings and play the numbers game – and eveentually make a sale somewhere.

    The estate agent business in the UK gets vilified, but in my opinion, the Spanish agents generally by comparison are total bungling oportunistic amateurs. They have a lot to learn about presentation of properties online too (shocking quality pictures and descriptions). Especially for overseas buyers (who cant just jump in their car and view a property) they should really go overboard on the quality of shots taken and the descriptions.

    Rightmove for the UK market shows them how it should be done. The Spanish props on RM are just an extension of the agents own websites generally. Anyway, the actions of agents went a long way to putting me off parting with our cash for a Spanish property.

  • #103388
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    When we were considering buying, one of the things that put us off was not just the properties being handled by every agent in town, but also the varying prices on view for the same house. it was as if they just thought of a number. The beauty of this is that I would use the lowest price possible and use this as my benchmark for a discounted offer – the logic being that ‘ no one pays anywhere near asking price these days’.

    So ultimately it seems to work against the seller (who only has one property to sell), whilst the agents just crank up their listings and play the numbers game – and eveentually make a sale somewhere.

    The estate agent business in the UK gets vilified, but in my opinion, the Spanish agents generally by comparison are total bungling oportunistic amateurs. They have a lot to learn about presentation of properties online too (shocking quality pictures and descriptions). Especially for overseas buyers (who cant just jump in their car and view a property) they should really go overboard on the quality of shots taken and the descriptions.

    Rightmove for the UK market shows them how it should be done. The Spanish props on RM are just an extension of the agents own websites generally. Anyway, the actions of agents went a long way to putting me off parting with our cash for a Spanish property.

  • #103226
    Profile photo of adiep
    adiep
    Participant

    @rialto wrote:

    Anyway, the actions of agents went a long way to putting me off parting with our cash for a Spanish property.

    Do people still use agents? I thought sites like fotocasa would be reducing the need for them.

  • #103390
    Profile photo of adiep
    adiep
    Participant

    @rialto wrote:

    Anyway, the actions of agents went a long way to putting me off parting with our cash for a Spanish property.

    Do people still use agents? I thought sites like fotocasa would be reducing the need for them.

  • #103230
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    Oh but katy, people are buying – the figures for 2010 are 460,000 properties sold in Spain, UP 6% on 2009…………….
    these are not my figures, but government stats; you can also read the article on Mark’s news and views column… this is not to say the market is booming because we know it’s not .. but 6% is rather healthy……….. also, the SIMA fair in Madrid is enjoying record sales with punters lining up with their cheque books buying up bargains with 100% low cost mortgages………

    😕 :

  • #103392
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    Oh but katy, people are buying – the figures for 2010 are 460,000 properties sold in Spain, UP 6% on 2009…………….
    these are not my figures, but government stats; you can also read the article on Mark’s news and views column… this is not to say the market is booming because we know it’s not .. but 6% is rather healthy……….. also, the SIMA fair in Madrid is enjoying record sales with punters lining up with their cheque books buying up bargains with 100% low cost mortgages………

    😕 :

  • #103232
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    “Do people still use agents? I thought sites like fotocasa would be reducing the need for them.”

    Yes Adiep they do; have you tried to buy off a web site dealing with a Spaniard?????? they are sooooooooooo proud and stubborn that they will neeeevveeer accept your realistic offer – that’s why you need a slippery agent between buyer and seller to do the deal !!!!!!

  • #103393
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    “Do people still use agents? I thought sites like fotocasa would be reducing the need for them.”

    Yes Adiep they do; have you tried to buy off a web site dealing with a Spaniard?????? they are sooooooooooo proud and stubborn that they will neeeevveeer accept your realistic offer – that’s why you need a slippery agent between buyer and seller to do the deal !!!!!!

  • #103234
    Profile photo of katy
    katy
    Spectator

    @UBEDA wrote:

    Oh but katy, people are buying – the figures for 2010 are 460,000 properties sold in Spain, UP 6% on 2009…………….
    these are not my figures, but government stats; you can also read the article on Mark’s news and views column… this is not to say the market is booming because we know it’s not .. but 6% is rather healthy……….. also, the SIMA fair in Madrid is enjoying record sales with punters lining up with their cheque books buying up bargains with 100% low cost mortgages………

    😕 :

    According to my spanish friends and relatives the figures are vastly inflated by foreclosures and inheritances. I do read the spanish news everyday so I do see the figures. I just find it strange that everyone I know who is selling (and have a wide range of properties from apartments coastal and inland to large villas ) are experiencing the same…no viewings! Plus there are friends of friends who say the same 😕 I know there are a some spanish young couples taking the advantage of 100% mortgages as they have to live somewhere but that doesn’t help the hundreds of thousands of private sellers.

  • #103394
    Profile photo of katy
    katy
    Spectator

    @UBEDA wrote:

    Oh but katy, people are buying – the figures for 2010 are 460,000 properties sold in Spain, UP 6% on 2009…………….
    these are not my figures, but government stats; you can also read the article on Mark’s news and views column… this is not to say the market is booming because we know it’s not .. but 6% is rather healthy……….. also, the SIMA fair in Madrid is enjoying record sales with punters lining up with their cheque books buying up bargains with 100% low cost mortgages………

    😕 :

    According to my spanish friends and relatives the figures are vastly inflated by foreclosures and inheritances. I do read the spanish news everyday so I do see the figures. I just find it strange that everyone I know who is selling (and have a wide range of properties from apartments coastal and inland to large villas ) are experiencing the same…no viewings! Plus there are friends of friends who say the same 😕 I know there are a some spanish young couples taking the advantage of 100% mortgages as they have to live somewhere but that doesn’t help the hundreds of thousands of private sellers.

  • #103236
    Profile photo of adiep
    adiep
    Participant

    @UBEDA wrote:

    “Do people still use agents? I thought sites like fotocasa would be reducing the need for them.”

    Yes Adiep they do; have you tried to buy off a web site dealing with a Spaniard?????? they are sooooooooooo proud and stubborn that they will neeeevveeer accept your realistic offer – that’s why you need a slippery agent between buyer and seller to do the deal !!!!!!

    Seems strange to me. Agents are typically crooked who will try and sham you out of the real sale price that sellers will accept from my experience. There was a place I was looking at some time back, agent took me there and told me 220k. The owners asked me what price he said and they were shocked and had told him 200k. So he was trying to top up the deal by 20k for his own pocket and also charging the seller a percentage.

    Of course we will all have seen the same property in different agents at vastly different prices.

    Honestly, I wouldnt go near an agent, they all seem like crooks and “chancers” to me.

  • #103395
    Profile photo of adiep
    adiep
    Participant

    @UBEDA wrote:

    “Do people still use agents? I thought sites like fotocasa would be reducing the need for them.”

    Yes Adiep they do; have you tried to buy off a web site dealing with a Spaniard?????? they are sooooooooooo proud and stubborn that they will neeeevveeer accept your realistic offer – that’s why you need a slippery agent between buyer and seller to do the deal !!!!!!

    Seems strange to me. Agents are typically crooked who will try and sham you out of the real sale price that sellers will accept from my experience. There was a place I was looking at some time back, agent took me there and told me 220k. The owners asked me what price he said and they were shocked and had told him 200k. So he was trying to top up the deal by 20k for his own pocket and also charging the seller a percentage.

    Of course we will all have seen the same property in different agents at vastly different prices.

    Honestly, I wouldnt go near an agent, they all seem like crooks and “chancers” to me.

  • #103238
    Profile photo of katy
    katy
    Spectator

    I don’t think many on the CDS work like that. Have sold through VIVA a few times in the past and I was clear what price I wanted and I paid the commission out of the sale. The commission should be nothing to do with the buyer. The practice of putting a bundle on the asking price was started by the spanish many years ago. I think the only agents who do this are the kitchen sink one man band agents.

    How it worked is the “correadores” would ask an owner how much they wanted for the house. Spanish logic being that if they are satisfied with that sum then anything above that sum they could wrangle out of the buyer was theirs. Then the British caught on and adopted it especially inland when silly Brits were paying 80,000 for a ruin worth 40,000.

  • #103396
    Profile photo of katy
    katy
    Spectator

    I don’t think many on the CDS work like that. Have sold through VIVA a few times in the past and I was clear what price I wanted and I paid the commission out of the sale. The commission should be nothing to do with the buyer. The practice of putting a bundle on the asking price was started by the spanish many years ago. I think the only agents who do this are the kitchen sink one man band agents.

    How it worked is the “correadores” would ask an owner how much they wanted for the house. Spanish logic being that if they are satisfied with that sum then anything above that sum they could wrangle out of the buyer was theirs. Then the British caught on and adopted it especially inland when silly Brits were paying 80,000 for a ruin worth 40,000.

  • #103240
    Profile photo of adiep
    adiep
    Participant

    @katy wrote:

    I don’t think many on the CDS work like that. Have sold through VIVA a few times in the past and I was clear what price I wanted and I paid the commission out of the sale. The commission should be nothing to do with the buyer. The practice of putting a bundle on the asking price was started by the spanish many years ago. I think the only agents who do this are the kitchen sink one man band agents.

    How it worked is the “correadores” would ask an owner how much they wanted for the house. Spanish logic being that if they are satisfied with that sum then anything above that sum they could wrangle out of the buyer was theirs. Then the British caught on and adopted it especially inland when silly Brits were paying 80,000 for a ruin worth 40,000.

    This was a Spanish agent – as are all of them in this neck of the woods. The sellers were brits, so we were able to have good conversation over a cup of tea.

    That’s how business should be done 🙂

  • #103397
    Profile photo of adiep
    adiep
    Participant

    @katy wrote:

    I don’t think many on the CDS work like that. Have sold through VIVA a few times in the past and I was clear what price I wanted and I paid the commission out of the sale. The commission should be nothing to do with the buyer. The practice of putting a bundle on the asking price was started by the spanish many years ago. I think the only agents who do this are the kitchen sink one man band agents.

    How it worked is the “correadores” would ask an owner how much they wanted for the house. Spanish logic being that if they are satisfied with that sum then anything above that sum they could wrangle out of the buyer was theirs. Then the British caught on and adopted it especially inland when silly Brits were paying 80,000 for a ruin worth 40,000.

    This was a Spanish agent – as are all of them in this neck of the woods. The sellers were brits, so we were able to have good conversation over a cup of tea.

    That’s how business should be done 🙂

  • #103250
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    @jp1 wrote:

    Also as I have absolutely no intention of selling it less than 200k (unless the pound falls even further)

    As I am now also looking to sell my property, I would be keen to know what other sellers are doing right now.
    What are your long term intentions? What I mean is, if you have no intentions of dropping below that figure, what happens if the value drops even more? Will you just hang in there and wait for the market to pick up? If so, how long would you wait?
    Do you think it will ever pick up???
    I ask as I am not sure if trying to sell now is a good idea or is hanging in there a better idea, if you don’t really need to sell but just want to?
    Would be great to hear what other sellers intentions are at the moment, cheers

  • #103402
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    @jp1 wrote:

    Also as I have absolutely no intention of selling it less than 200k (unless the pound falls even further)

    As I am now also looking to sell my property, I would be keen to know what other sellers are doing right now.
    What are your long term intentions? What I mean is, if you have no intentions of dropping below that figure, what happens if the value drops even more? Will you just hang in there and wait for the market to pick up? If so, how long would you wait?
    Do you think it will ever pick up???
    I ask as I am not sure if trying to sell now is a good idea or is hanging in there a better idea, if you don’t really need to sell but just want to?
    Would be great to hear what other sellers intentions are at the moment, cheers

  • #103268
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    @jonas wrote:

    @jp1 wrote:
    Also as I have absolutely no intention of selling it less than 200k (unless the pound falls even further)

    As I am now also looking to sell my property, I would be keen to know what other sellers are doing right now.
    What are your long term intentions? What I mean is, if you have no intentions of dropping below that figure, what happens if the value drops even more? Will you just hang in there and wait for the market to pick up? If so, how long would you wait?
    Do you think it will ever pick up???
    I ask as I am not sure if trying to sell now is a good idea or is hanging in there a better idea, if you don’t really need to sell but just want to?
    Would be great to hear what other sellers intentions are at the moment, cheers

    This property is my holiday home. I did (foolishly) buy an investment property in 2004 based on the rapid development of the resort. I sold it (at any cost) in Feb 2009 as I knew what was coming. My wife is Spanish, her parents live nearby, her brother has an apartment in the same complex, there are many reasons for me to keep my apartment.

    There are also many reasons why I want to sell. To move up the UK market without taking on a mortgage being the main one.

    But I am not going to dispose of my holiday home near the bottom of the recession at any price. It has value to me and my wife and if it won’t sell for a reasonable price then I won’t sell it.

    My situation is probably very different from other UK buyers that don’t have a strong link with their resort. I also have a very small mortgage on the apartment, so there is no financial pressure to sell.

    I placed the advert to test the water and I’d say I need to fish in a different pond!!

  • #103411
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    @jonas wrote:

    @jp1 wrote:
    Also as I have absolutely no intention of selling it less than 200k (unless the pound falls even further)

    As I am now also looking to sell my property, I would be keen to know what other sellers are doing right now.
    What are your long term intentions? What I mean is, if you have no intentions of dropping below that figure, what happens if the value drops even more? Will you just hang in there and wait for the market to pick up? If so, how long would you wait?
    Do you think it will ever pick up???
    I ask as I am not sure if trying to sell now is a good idea or is hanging in there a better idea, if you don’t really need to sell but just want to?
    Would be great to hear what other sellers intentions are at the moment, cheers

    This property is my holiday home. I did (foolishly) buy an investment property in 2004 based on the rapid development of the resort. I sold it (at any cost) in Feb 2009 as I knew what was coming. My wife is Spanish, her parents live nearby, her brother has an apartment in the same complex, there are many reasons for me to keep my apartment.

    There are also many reasons why I want to sell. To move up the UK market without taking on a mortgage being the main one.

    But I am not going to dispose of my holiday home near the bottom of the recession at any price. It has value to me and my wife and if it won’t sell for a reasonable price then I won’t sell it.

    My situation is probably very different from other UK buyers that don’t have a strong link with their resort. I also have a very small mortgage on the apartment, so there is no financial pressure to sell.

    I placed the advert to test the water and I’d say I need to fish in a different pond!!

  • #103272
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    @jp1 wrote:

    @jonas wrote:
    @jp1 wrote:
    Also as I have absolutely no intention of selling it less than 200k (unless the pound falls even further)

    As I am now also looking to sell my property, I would be keen to know what other sellers are doing right now.
    What are your long term intentions? What I mean is, if you have no intentions of dropping below that figure, what happens if the value drops even more? Will you just hang in there and wait for the market to pick up? If so, how long would you wait?
    Do you think it will ever pick up???
    I ask as I am not sure if trying to sell now is a good idea or is hanging in there a better idea, if you don’t really need to sell but just want to?
    Would be great to hear what other sellers intentions are at the moment, cheers

    This property is my holiday home. I did (foolishly) buy an investment property in 2004 based on the rapid development of the resort. I sold it (at any cost) in Feb 2009 as I knew what was coming. My wife is Spanish, her parents live nearby, her brother has an apartment in the same complex, there are many reasons for me to keep my apartment.

    There are also many reasons why I want to sell. To move up the UK market without taking on a mortgage being the main one.

    But I am not going to dispose of my holiday home near the bottom of the recession at any price. It has value to me and my wife and if it won’t sell for a reasonable price then I won’t sell it.

    My situation is probably very different from other UK buyers that don’t have a strong link with their resort. I also have a very small mortgage on the apartment, so there is no financial pressure to sell.

    I placed the advert to test the water and I’d say I need to fish in a different pond!!

    Thanks for the info. So, I know its a long shot, but do you think you will ever be able to sell it for the 200.000 your are looking for? Or do you think the market in spain will bottom out and stay like that.
    Not having ever lived through a recession (well, I lived through the one in the 90’s but never had properties back then so it didn’t affect me!), this is all new to me and am just wondering if once the levels reach the bottom, does it take years for them to rise again, or will they ever rise again as this is a different scenario what is happening now? Just like to hear other sellers thoughts to help me make my mind up as to whether to sell or sit on it as my situation is quite similar to yours. Thanks

  • #103413
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    @jp1 wrote:

    @jonas wrote:
    @jp1 wrote:
    Also as I have absolutely no intention of selling it less than 200k (unless the pound falls even further)

    As I am now also looking to sell my property, I would be keen to know what other sellers are doing right now.
    What are your long term intentions? What I mean is, if you have no intentions of dropping below that figure, what happens if the value drops even more? Will you just hang in there and wait for the market to pick up? If so, how long would you wait?
    Do you think it will ever pick up???
    I ask as I am not sure if trying to sell now is a good idea or is hanging in there a better idea, if you don’t really need to sell but just want to?
    Would be great to hear what other sellers intentions are at the moment, cheers

    This property is my holiday home. I did (foolishly) buy an investment property in 2004 based on the rapid development of the resort. I sold it (at any cost) in Feb 2009 as I knew what was coming. My wife is Spanish, her parents live nearby, her brother has an apartment in the same complex, there are many reasons for me to keep my apartment.

    There are also many reasons why I want to sell. To move up the UK market without taking on a mortgage being the main one.

    But I am not going to dispose of my holiday home near the bottom of the recession at any price. It has value to me and my wife and if it won’t sell for a reasonable price then I won’t sell it.

    My situation is probably very different from other UK buyers that don’t have a strong link with their resort. I also have a very small mortgage on the apartment, so there is no financial pressure to sell.

    I placed the advert to test the water and I’d say I need to fish in a different pond!!

    Thanks for the info. So, I know its a long shot, but do you think you will ever be able to sell it for the 200.000 your are looking for? Or do you think the market in spain will bottom out and stay like that.
    Not having ever lived through a recession (well, I lived through the one in the 90’s but never had properties back then so it didn’t affect me!), this is all new to me and am just wondering if once the levels reach the bottom, does it take years for them to rise again, or will they ever rise again as this is a different scenario what is happening now? Just like to hear other sellers thoughts to help me make my mind up as to whether to sell or sit on it as my situation is quite similar to yours. Thanks

  • #103274
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    adiep, from the people I meet JP1 is fairly typical of sellers at the moment. For most poeple selling, it is their holiday home that we are talking about. Most people did not buy at the top of the market and take out huge mortgages. Most people thought about what they were buying and bought something they would enjoy using as a holiday home i.e it’s in a good area that other people will also enjoy. Most people are are simply selling because they have had all the use they want out of their holiday home and it’s time to move on. They understand what has happened to prices and whilst they may, from a financial point of view wish they had sold a few years ago, they accept their fate, accept that they have had a few more years use and now want to sell at a price that they are comfortable with.
    For JP1 at current rates of exchange that is 200k.
    Now, having said that there will be some people who because of their financial situation need to sell a bit more urgently than people like JP1 and without knowing where his property is I suspect that if one looked you could find two or three cheaper apartments than JP1’s in the same complex. It is these type apartments that are selling. I don’t know how long it will take but lets say there are 3 better value apartments than JP1’s and they all sell this year. Jp’s apartment then becomes the best priced apartment available early next year and will sell.
    You started a thread about some houses near Gibraltar on the market in excess of 200k and asked what you should offer. You need to research that area and I would suggest you will find similar houses priced anywhere from 180k to 250k. Clearly the one’s at 180k are being sold by people who have looked at what else is on the market and priced their properties to sell. They will be keen to sell and probably take offers at say 150k. I think the advice you received was to offer 50k which is just plain bonkers.
    I think the question you really want answered is, are we at the bottom of the cycle or will prices fall further.
    I am aware that properties are selling on the Costa del Sol and therfore it’s reasonable to suggest that we are at or near the bottom. I think we are seeing a normal, gradual climb out of recession and it’s only when we have the chance to look back will we see exactly where the top and bottom of the market is.
    I suppose there is always a chance of something drastic happening to the worlds/Europes/Spain’s economy and perhaps the collapse of the Spanish Banking system and Euro etc would make me regret saying what I have and you would look back and say that now was a very bad time to be buying. However, it’s my honest opinion that that is not going to happen and this year will see more sales than last year and all the very best bargains will get sold. If you do not buy now you will be looking at properties that are not quite as cheap.
    I bought here over 12 years ago and to be honest did not give much thought to whether or not prices would go up or down. I had some spare cash, fancied an apartment in Spain which I could use for a long time and bought something that I enjoyed for many years before moving over here and I now enjoy living in it. Buying a holiday home is a bit like buying other “luxury” items such a nice car. If everybody looked at buying a car in purely financial terms nobody would buy a brand new car because we all know it immediately goes down in value when driven out of the showroom. I am actually looking at changing my car and i’m thinking now could be a good time to buy with dealers wanting to do deals. Maybe things will get a bit worse before they get better and if I hold on I might get an even better deal but I know I am not going to get the car I want at 50% of today’s prices and as I want a new car now and have the cash available I think I will get one now. I would suggest you adopt a similat attitute to your holiday home, do you reserach, bargain hard but in a sensible way and get yourself a nice place that you can start enjoing.

  • #103414
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    adiep, from the people I meet JP1 is fairly typical of sellers at the moment. For most poeple selling, it is their holiday home that we are talking about. Most people did not buy at the top of the market and take out huge mortgages. Most people thought about what they were buying and bought something they would enjoy using as a holiday home i.e it’s in a good area that other people will also enjoy. Most people are are simply selling because they have had all the use they want out of their holiday home and it’s time to move on. They understand what has happened to prices and whilst they may, from a financial point of view wish they had sold a few years ago, they accept their fate, accept that they have had a few more years use and now want to sell at a price that they are comfortable with.
    For JP1 at current rates of exchange that is 200k.
    Now, having said that there will be some people who because of their financial situation need to sell a bit more urgently than people like JP1 and without knowing where his property is I suspect that if one looked you could find two or three cheaper apartments than JP1’s in the same complex. It is these type apartments that are selling. I don’t know how long it will take but lets say there are 3 better value apartments than JP1’s and they all sell this year. Jp’s apartment then becomes the best priced apartment available early next year and will sell.
    You started a thread about some houses near Gibraltar on the market in excess of 200k and asked what you should offer. You need to research that area and I would suggest you will find similar houses priced anywhere from 180k to 250k. Clearly the one’s at 180k are being sold by people who have looked at what else is on the market and priced their properties to sell. They will be keen to sell and probably take offers at say 150k. I think the advice you received was to offer 50k which is just plain bonkers.
    I think the question you really want answered is, are we at the bottom of the cycle or will prices fall further.
    I am aware that properties are selling on the Costa del Sol and therfore it’s reasonable to suggest that we are at or near the bottom. I think we are seeing a normal, gradual climb out of recession and it’s only when we have the chance to look back will we see exactly where the top and bottom of the market is.
    I suppose there is always a chance of something drastic happening to the worlds/Europes/Spain’s economy and perhaps the collapse of the Spanish Banking system and Euro etc would make me regret saying what I have and you would look back and say that now was a very bad time to be buying. However, it’s my honest opinion that that is not going to happen and this year will see more sales than last year and all the very best bargains will get sold. If you do not buy now you will be looking at properties that are not quite as cheap.
    I bought here over 12 years ago and to be honest did not give much thought to whether or not prices would go up or down. I had some spare cash, fancied an apartment in Spain which I could use for a long time and bought something that I enjoyed for many years before moving over here and I now enjoy living in it. Buying a holiday home is a bit like buying other “luxury” items such a nice car. If everybody looked at buying a car in purely financial terms nobody would buy a brand new car because we all know it immediately goes down in value when driven out of the showroom. I am actually looking at changing my car and i’m thinking now could be a good time to buy with dealers wanting to do deals. Maybe things will get a bit worse before they get better and if I hold on I might get an even better deal but I know I am not going to get the car I want at 50% of today’s prices and as I want a new car now and have the cash available I think I will get one now. I would suggest you adopt a similat attitute to your holiday home, do you reserach, bargain hard but in a sensible way and get yourself a nice place that you can start enjoing.

  • #103276
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    No it won’t sell for 200k. To get a sale in a reasonable time frame (3 months) I would need to drop to around 120~130k.

    But that’s an economic fundamental law, when the market is screwed you need to effectively give away something you need to sell!

    We are not far from the bottom. As soon as it’s reached I expect there will be significant buyers and prices will rise rapidly (relatively speaking). I think to get 200k for my property we need to be 1 or 2 years on from the bottom of the market.

    If you can wait then do it, selling now is the worst time possible unless you can gain from the collapse of the pound. But to answer your question, things always bounce back up from a crash.

  • #103415
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    No it won’t sell for 200k. To get a sale in a reasonable time frame (3 months) I would need to drop to around 120~130k.

    But that’s an economic fundamental law, when the market is screwed you need to effectively give away something you need to sell!

    We are not far from the bottom. As soon as it’s reached I expect there will be significant buyers and prices will rise rapidly (relatively speaking). I think to get 200k for my property we need to be 1 or 2 years on from the bottom of the market.

    If you can wait then do it, selling now is the worst time possible unless you can gain from the collapse of the pound. But to answer your question, things always bounce back up from a crash.

  • #103280
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    @jp1 wrote:

    No it won’t sell for 200k. To get a sale in a reasonable time frame (3 months) I would need to drop to around 120~130k.

    But that’s an economic fundamental law, when the market is screwed you need to effectively give away something you need to sell!

    We are not far from the bottom. As soon as it’s reached I expect there will be significant buyers and prices will rise rapidly (relatively speaking). I think to get 200k for my property we need to be 1 or 2 years on from the bottom of the market.

    If you can wait then do it, selling now is the worst time possible unless you can gain from the collapse of the pound. But to answer your question, things always bounce back up from a crash.

    Thanks for your insight jp1. What you say makes sense and I agree with, from what you have said, that selling now, unless you are desperate, is a bad move. So I think I will sit on it for another 3 years and turn to rentals to cover any costs. Lets keep our fingers crossed that the bottom of the market is some time in 2011. Thanks for that.

  • #103417
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    @jp1 wrote:

    No it won’t sell for 200k. To get a sale in a reasonable time frame (3 months) I would need to drop to around 120~130k.

    But that’s an economic fundamental law, when the market is screwed you need to effectively give away something you need to sell!

    We are not far from the bottom. As soon as it’s reached I expect there will be significant buyers and prices will rise rapidly (relatively speaking). I think to get 200k for my property we need to be 1 or 2 years on from the bottom of the market.

    If you can wait then do it, selling now is the worst time possible unless you can gain from the collapse of the pound. But to answer your question, things always bounce back up from a crash.

    Thanks for your insight jp1. What you say makes sense and I agree with, from what you have said, that selling now, unless you are desperate, is a bad move. So I think I will sit on it for another 3 years and turn to rentals to cover any costs. Lets keep our fingers crossed that the bottom of the market is some time in 2011. Thanks for that.

  • #103420
    Profile photo of katy
    katy
    Spectator

    I find it difficult to believe the market is picking up. Too much uncertainty in the world right now. I feel it is a time for battening down the hatches and most friend and contacts feel the same. I have to say though if I wanted a place for lifestyle enjoyment I wouldn’t/couldn’t wait for years/months. I would compare it to wanting a new sofa…I want it now, not wait until next january for the sale 😆

    Many will never move from their bottom line, they will just wait. There seems to be some perception that everyone will just keep reducing, some will, most won’t. The costas are a different ballgame.

  • #103421
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    @katy wrote:

    I find it difficult to believe the market is picking up. Too much uncertainty in the world right now. I feel it is a time for battening down the hatches and most friend and contacts feel the same. I have to say though if I wanted a place for lifestyle enjoyment I wouldn’t/couldn’t wait for years/months. I would compare it to wanting a new sofa…I want it now, not wait until next january for the sale 😆

    Many will never move from their bottom line, they will just wait. There seems to be some perception that everyone will just keep reducing, some will, most won’t. The costas are a different ballgame.

    Exactly. So whilst I am driving around in my new car and Katy is stting on her new sofa some people will be buying and enjoying their new holiday home in the knowledge that they have paid considerably less than they would have a few years ago and Logan will be in his miserable world without any kids, heat, noise etc. It’s a sure thing that my car and katy’s sofa will worth less in a years time than we are paying now but we don’t care. Whether or not the property buyers will be sitting on something worth less is open to debate but I am sure they will enjoy their purchase.

  • #103428
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    😀 😀 😀 😀 😀 😀 😀 😀 😀 😀 😀 😀

    one for logan 🙁

  • #103435
    Profile photo of katy
    katy
    Spectator

    Here are the latest stats re. house prices from INE

    El coste solo subió en Extremadura y Madrid
    El precio de la vivienda aumentó a cierre de 2010 en Extremadura y en Madrid, donde las casas se encarecieron un 1,7%, respectivamente, mientras que en el resto de las comunidades autónomas, se abarataron. Los mayores descensos interanuales correspondieron a Cantabria (7,2%), La Rioja (6,2%), Navarra (5,9%), Aragón (4,3%), Comunidad Valenciana (3,3%), Canarias (3,2%), Cataluña (2,8%), Murcia (2,6%) y Andalucía (2,1%).
    Por debajo de la media nacional, el precio de la vivienda disminuyó en País Vasco (1,4%), Galicia (1,4%), Castilla y León (1,3%), Baleares (1,3%), Asturias (1%), Castilla-La Mancha (0,8%), mientras que en la ciudad autónoma de Ceuta bajó el 2,6% y en Melilla descendió el 1,1%.

    You can see that prices in andalucia only fell by 2.1% in 2010 😆

  • #103437
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    According to the latest data from the Public Works Ministry, the revival of the Spanish property market continues at a pace with the Balearic Islands recording a 14.5% increase in property sales in 2010 compared to 2009. 😯

    …..which has nothing whatsoever to do with adiep’s thread, it’s a bit like Chinese Whispers in ‘ere. 😆

  • #103439
    Profile photo of katy
    katy
    Spectator

    I have a gut feeling that prices won’t drop much lower. Of course there will be the odd bargain but not overall. What will happen is that on the costas the market will be in the doldrums for 5 years at least. Let me know if I am wrong in a couple of years time 😛

  • #103440
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    @katy wrote:

    I have a gut feeling that prices won’t drop much lower. P

    You were saying this 2 years ago too. The prices went 20% down since then.

  • #103444
    Profile photo of adiep
    adiep
    Participant

    @katy wrote:

    I have a gut feeling that prices won’t drop much lower. Of course there will be the odd bargain but not overall. What will happen is that on the costas the market will be in the doldrums for 5 years at least. Let me know if I am wrong in a couple of years time 😛

    Katy, they have to drop. The key ingredient that allowed them to rise to such crazy heights of lunacy have now gone, they went when American sub-prime turned toxic. Without the a strong (read naive) market for CDO’s and MBS, there’s always going to be a struggle to get serious amounts of funds into the housing market. Investors are not interested in buying rolled up lumps of debt with dubious credit ratings, been there, done that, brought the country… Without this debt market, banks are reliant on their deposit base and bond markets to raise funds for lending. That’s nothing like what was available before/

    Combine the death of the debt derivatives markets with the new banking regulations and youve got a very much shrunken mortgage market.

    This is the reversal of all the factors that caused the bubble. Without those conditions the market would not have boomed, and now without those factors the market wont be able to sustain these high prices – simply because no one can afford them.

  • #103445
    Profile photo of kgpoc
    kgpoc
    Participant

    adiep – I could not agree more.

    I would add a few more things, looking at the US: Where there are higher salaries, more jobs, more immigration (into) a housing slump that started 1 or 2 years before the Spanish and to top all those off the Spanish lead time caused more houses to still come out on the market even when it was bust. With all those ‘more’ positive factors the US market price is still dropping, sales have come back, house builders are working a little and slowly, but prices are still falling!

    Spanish prices will still fall by about 10%-20%. We are in year 3 or 4 depending on the authority you use and housing cycles usually take 10 years in recovered, stable markets.

  • #103446
    Profile photo of adiep
    adiep
    Participant

    @kgpoc wrote:

    adiep – I could not agree more.

    I would add a few more things, looking at the US: Where there are higher salaries, more jobs, more immigration (into) a housing slump that started 1 or 2 years before the Spanish and to top all those off the Spanish lead time caused more houses to still come out on the market even when it was bust. With all those ‘more’ positive factors the US market price is still dropping, sales have come back, house builders are working a little and slowly, but prices are still falling!

    Spanish prices will still fall by about 10%-20%. We are in year 3 or 4 depending on the authority you use and housing cycles usually take 10 years in recovered, stable markets.

    There’s an easy way to visualise the effects on the market of less funding available for mortgages. For instance if it were still possible for any Tom, Dick or Harry to walk into a bank and borrow x 10 their salary with 120% mortgage for a town house in Manilva, would we still see prices falling? Would the market be in decline? If they could borrow x 20 salary, what would the price of a town house in Manilva be? If they can only borrow x3 salary and need a 20% deposit, what does that do to the average price of a Manilva town house?

    Its well documented that easy credit was the cause of the housing bubble, if that credit becomes restricted (as it is now) then the market shrinks and prices decline. In fact, houses at that point become a very unloved investment class – static in nature, non-convertable and highly leveraged with acute exposure to interest rate shifts.

    No one in their right mind is going to start pumping money into mortgage backed securities for quite some time, given that Spain has Euro billions that they cant repay. Talk of being at the bottom of the market is nonsense if people dont understand how the market was made and what is needed for a recovery.

    Thats my view anyway 🙂

  • #103447
    Profile photo of adiep
    adiep
    Participant

    Actually, there’s a pretty good documentary called “inside job” that explains the roots of the housing bubble, worth watching.

    http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1645089/

  • #103453
    Profile photo of ozmunky
    ozmunky
    Participant

    @katy wrote:

    I have a gut feeling that prices won’t drop much lower. Of course there will be the odd bargain but not overall. What will happen is that on the costas the market will be in the doldrums for 5 years at least. Let me know if I am wrong in a couple of years time 😛

    Katy’s posts are excellent and worth reading.

    However, in light of the dreadful global events in the Middle East,Europe and Japan combining in situ, I think all bets are off for the next 3-5 years.

    I just think Spain is more vulnerable than most because it is also weaker than most (except Portugal) to put up a fight to whats happening.

    People hoping to sell now under normal market conditions are in serious trouble depending on their debts.

    Those folks who didn’t take the lifeline offered to them earlier (at a lower value than they bought at) are pretty much toast until 2015 and beyond.

    Spanish property prices are driven in the main by the health of Western European economies which have just had a once in a genration bubble and will take a decade to regain financial health.

    It surprises me that there on some on this board who think otherwise given the circumstances.

    Anyone thinking of buying should rent and hold off under all circumstances until the fog clears (whenever that will be) and enjoy the weather.

    Sellers that dont need to sell should be prepared to hold for a while.

    Those sellers that need to sell now — sorry, but you need to cut your losses.

    As I have said before, unless Spain as a nation takes action on the points I have previously posted about then everyone is in strife.

    — Munky

  • #103463
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    @ozmunky wrote:

    Spanish property prices are driven in the main by the health of Western European economies which have just had a once in a genration bubble and will take a decade to regain financial health.
    — Munky

    Exactly. The the bubble was first in stocks, then in housing,

    The big problem is that the young generation does not have jobs so they need to think first about finding food and shelter, not many will be able to aspire owning holiday homes.

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