Pound to go below Euro

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This topic contains 26 replies, has 12 voices, and was last updated by Profile photo of Anonymous Anonymous 6 years, 9 months ago.

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  • #55452
    Profile photo of GJ
    GJ
    Participant

    Main financial news on the BBC this morning.

    A spokesman from UBS is predicting the Pound will be worth less than a Euro within days based on the weakness of the British economy.

    Meanwhile the Wall Street Journals front page says hedge funds are placing large bets against the Euro.

    The comparative size of the Euro economic zone when compared to the UK suggests both will slide against the US dollar.

    Could the pound end up being worth 90 centimos and have parity with the US dollar?

  • #97251
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    Apparently it’s that f***ing Soros who did the same thing to me (and millions of others) with the pound back in 1992.
    What is his problem?

  • #97254
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    @lenox wrote:

    Apparently it’s that f***ing Soros who did the same thing to me (and millions of others) with the pound back in 1992.
    What is his problem?

    His problem?

    Take advantage of the market conditions and gain lots of money. Nothing personal, just business.

  • #97256
    Profile photo of angie
    angie
    Spectator

    lenox, Soros is a business man with a lot of clout, markets often follow his statements, on the other hand he’s crafty enough to punt the other way so caution is needed.

    When he feels the time is right he could well bet large against the euro, generally the Dollar has always been King as well. 😉

  • #97264
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    There have been ‘pound/euro parity’ stories popping up for a couple of years now. So far none of them have been true but I suppose there is a chance that one of these years someone may call it right.

    Truth is nobody, not even Soros, knows what is going to happen. Certainly anyone who did would not be witing press articles about it. Rather they’d be on the markets putting their money where their mouth is.

  • #97281
    Profile photo of petej
    petej
    Participant

    It would be a very rich man that knew what was going to happen, I cant see the pound ever going below 1-1 with the Euro, sterling’s strength will be very dependant on the outcome of the soon to be held UK elections,
    I don’t think who wins matters much, its the size of the victory that will count, a hung parliament will send the pound down maybe to the level of Christmas 2008

  • #97283
    Profile photo of logan
    logan
    Participant

    Weak Sterling is a central plank of the Bank of England’s recovery strategy. It’s in the interests of the UK to keep Sterling low against it’s principal trading partners. Exports, goods and services stay competitive and give UK an important trading edge.
    An exchange rate reflects the economic state of a nation unless its in an artificial system called Eurozone.
    I expect Sterling to remain near parity with the Euro for some time. Best guess – 2 years.

  • #97284
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
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    @logan wrote:

    I expect Sterling to remain near parity with the Euro for some time. Best guess – 2 years.

    Why do you think Pound will start increasing versus Euro in the near future? The UK economy will not get any better in 2 years from now…

  • #97285
    Profile photo of logan
    logan
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    I think the US is key to the UK recovery and should perform well over the short to middle term. I expect the Eurozone to remain moribund which I agree will be a damper on UK prospects.
    It will also depend on which party wins the UK election in May. Labour will not reduce the huge deficit and only increase borrowing despite what they say.
    I expect the Tories will reduce borrowing and the deficit.
    That will eventually encourage the markets to invest in UK PLC and boost Sterling. Tax incentives later should increase public consumption.
    2 years to partial recovery is possible. If Brown/Labour wins more like 4-5.
    In the end it’s all really an educated guess. Uncertainty rules right now.

  • #97290
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    petej
    Participant

    logan,

    In the end it’s all really an educated guess.

    Sums it up quite well really, IMO the gulf between Labour and Conservatives after an election will not be that great, I think both will cut expenditure hard with a hike in VAT to 20% on the cards with both.

  • #97293
    Profile photo of logan
    logan
    Participant

    The labour Party have only committed to halving the deficit within 4 years.
    A disaster for Sterling. Having seen Osborne give an interview this morning they seem to also soft peddling on deficit cuts.
    Perhaps Sterling is indeed heading below parity. Very soon there won’t be a single Brit on a Sterling income living in Europe. 🙁

  • #97294
    Profile photo of GJ
    GJ
    Participant

    @logan wrote:

    The labour Party have only committed to halving the deficit within 4 years.
    A disaster for Sterling. Having seen Osborne give an interview this morning they seem to also soft peddling on deficit cuts.
    Perhaps Sterling is indeed heading below parity. Very soon there won’t be a single Brit on a Sterling income living in Europe. 🙁

    I think the soft peddling is because no party wants to tell the truth about their intended actions until after the election due to the fear that the electorate will not vote for even harder times.
    I hope and expect the financial markets realise this.
    The true crunch will come after the election when the market may believe they can force the government to make the cuts regardless of pain caused.
    IMO after the election will be when we find out what the Tories are going to do not before.

  • #97295
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    petej
    Participant

    Similar points made in the comments to this article in the Times

    http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article7043834.ece

  • #97302
    Profile photo of logan
    logan
    Participant

    Sterling falling off a cliff this morning £1 = 1.09 Euros. Heading for parity and beyond? 🙁

  • #97304
    Profile photo of angie
    angie
    Spectator

    If stg does fall to parity or worse against the euro, then it makes no sense financially for Brits to buy properties in the Eurozone, only for Brits to sell if they possibly can.

  • #97310
    Profile photo of logan
    logan
    Participant

    @angie wrote:

    If stg does fall to parity or worse against the euro, then it makes no sense financially for Brits to buy properties in the Eurozone, only for Brits to sell if they possibly can.

    Agree, buying anything in Euroland with Sterling converted at these rates is prohibitive. 30% at least over fair value and not recoverable when Sterling eventually improves..
    Buying the other way round however is currently a great deal. The same 30% discount margin.
    Don’t you just love markets. 😀

  • #97323
    Profile photo of peterhun
    peterhun
    Participant

    The projection is for Sterling to go down 25-30% against the dollar, so I expect the pound to be well below a Euro as well, and it will happen pretty soon.

    We have had near parity with the dollar not so long ago and the long term average was around 1.65, so a fall from the current levels is to be expected in the circumstances (QE, massive deficit and debt).

  • #97325
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    Anonymous
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    @peterhun wrote:

    The projection is for Sterling to go down 25-30% against the dollar, so I expect the pound to be well below a Euro as well, and it will happen pretty soon.

    We have had near parity with the dollar not so long ago and the long term average was around 1.65, so a fall from the current levels is to be expected in the circumstances (QE, massive deficit and debt).

    The Pound already fell from $2.10 to $1.48 which is about than 30%.

    Illinois is bankrupt, California is bankrupt, Florida is bankrupt. There is no reason for the $ to be as strong as it is now, let alone gain another 25% versus Pound…

    Pound might go under 1 Euro temporary but will not stay there unless Greece and Portugal are kicked off Euro zone.

  • #97326
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    Anonymous
    Participant

    As of 11:20 this morning the pound has in fact gone up against the Euro.
    Reports in the media last week intimated that Soros and other speculators are presently betting against the euro.
    Soros is rumoured (but would not comment when pressed) to have forecast that their could be a loss of confidence in the EU’s ability to handle the present crisis with Greece and the PIGS economies.

  • #97328
    Profile photo of logan
    logan
    Participant

    Here is this mornings Sterling spread.
    http://news.bbc.co.uk/news/business/market_data/currency/11/13/intraday.stm
    Interesting watching an interview on CNBC with Warren Buffet, (Berkshire Hathaway) and one of my mentors. He sees disaster ahead for Eurozone nations who cannot keep up with the economic needs of Germany and France. He thinks the whole Euro concept is currently in peril. However I still expect Germany/France in the end to bankroll the failing economies of PIGS. despite public mutterings by Merkle to the contrary.

  • #97334
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    peterhun
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    @flosmichael wrote:

    @peterhun wrote:
    The projection is for Sterling to go down 25-30% against the dollar, so I expect the pound to be well below a Euro as well, and it will happen pretty soon.

    We have had near parity with the dollar not so long ago and the long term average was around 1.65, so a fall from the current levels is to be expected in the circumstances (QE, massive deficit and debt).

    The Pound already fell from $2.10 to $1.48 which is about than 30%.

    Illinois is bankrupt, California is bankrupt, Florida is bankrupt. There is no reason for the $ to be as strong as it is now, let alone gain another 25% versus Pound…

    Pound might go under 1 Euro temporary but will not stay there unless Greece and Portugal are kicked off Euro zone.

    The fall from $2.10 was mere repositioning for the overvalued £. The next fall will be due to the borrowing requirements and budget deficit.
    The $ is strong because its a safe have currency, difficult to avoid that.

  • #97337
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    petej
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    peterhun The $ is strong because its a safe have currency, difficult to avoid that.

    Very true, i did think some time ago that the Euro may take over from the Dollar as the safe haven but saw what happen at the end of 2008 when things looked bad, it all went to the Dollar

  • #97342
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    Anonymous
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    £ will probably fall against the dollar as it is the worlds reserve currency (that’s the only reason – they’ve done much more damage to their finances than UK. They also have constitutional probelm as the democrats will not reduce spending and the republicans will not increase taxes. Stalemate.)

    £ will probably rise against the € as the € looks pretty damaged by the likes of Greece, Portugal, Italy, Spain and Ireland. Of those countries only Ireland has any credibility in terms of its fiscal plans. The others are a joke.

    And Spain is a total joke. One minister says jobs will be cut at a conference. Back home another one says jobs will not be cut. One minister says gov spending will be cut another says it will be maintained.

    I still see £ at €1.30 in a few months, but probably not until after the UK election and after the new government states its deficit reduction plans in a credible way.

  • #97343
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    Anonymous
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    No one with any sense would call where the exchange rate will be in a month’s time let alone a whole year. The only person who seems to have any sort of grasp on the £ exchange rate (much to everyone’s surprise) is Mervyn King, Governor of the bank of England. But then his only task is to keep it depressed, something he seems very good at.

    Dit

  • #97344
    Profile photo of rt21
    rt21
    Participant

    As has been said I don’t think anyone can forecast with any reasonable level of accuracy what the value of the pound will be in the future. Like the weather there are too many interacting variables that affect its position and some of these are unpredictable.

    Sometimes experts have focussed on just one variable to predict the movement of sterling only to find that another unforseen variable has popped up which has undermined their prediction.

    Sometimes it is best just to monitor the market on a daily basis and make ones own judgements regardless of ones level of knowledge on the matter

    Richard

  • #97345
    Profile photo of logan
    logan
    Participant

    One thing you can be sure of is that Sterling is not going to rise in the medium term to any meaningful extent against any currency.

  • #97357
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    Anonymous
    Participant

    @logan wrote:

    One thing you can be sure of is that Sterling is not going to rise in the medium term to any meaningful extent against any currency.

    It almost certainly will as other currencies and economies are in worse shape. Just read today’s economic news and compare UK and Greece.

    Even the Daily Fail (God bless ’em) reckons things’ll get better when Dave and Boy George take command…

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