Pig – singular or plural?

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This topic contains 21 replies, has 10 voices, and was last updated by Profile photo of logan logan 5 years, 8 months ago.

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  • #56182
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    With Portugal finally calling for help we now have PIG as a matter of fact.

    Spain is commonly regarded as next in line. Certainly the markets may well target it now.

    I read last week of a Spanish politician saying it would remain singular. I have to say, given the stakes involved, I lean slightly towards agreeing with him.

    What say you?

  • #103766
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    I say, Spain has always talking Porkies.

  • #103776
    Profile photo of kgpoc
    kgpoc
    Participant

    I don’t believe Spain will need to ask for a bail out!

  • #103777
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    kgpoc if they manage to avoid it it’s just by giving false information about the status of their finances. AKA Greek finances. =)

  • #103794
    Profile photo of ozmunky
    ozmunky
    Participant

    @kgpoc wrote:

    I don’t believe Spain will need to ask for a bail out!

    Anyone who thinks this is deluded.

    Spain will need to assisted at some point.

    The public sums do not add up — markets know it, banks know it. EU says Spain is safe and wont happen — wait till global credit taps are turned off by non EU investors.

    Only long term (10 years plus from now) property owners/holders and those that hold off buying till 2014 to hold for while will be unaffected to a degree.

    All short term speculators and flippers will be toast.

    Those panicking now to get out have missed the boat and are now face life determining decisions if you are aged 35 or more.

    — Munky

  • #103802
    Profile photo of logan
    logan
    Participant

    Its quite odd really. Market sentiment seems to have turned in the last week or so towards Spain being able to handle their debt problem. Here is an an example:-
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/gilts/8436428/Spains-tough-stance-makes-it-different-from-the-rest.html
    The sentiment seems to be based on the fact that it’s debt ratio as a percentage of GDP has gone down 1.4%. The recent budget austerity measures also are an improving factor.
    Personally I think this sentiment is clutching at straws.
    The banking crisis is festering and coming to a head. Spain needs to repay or roll over billions in debt this year. Unemployment is continuing to rise and the social security bill escalating. The population on variable mortgages will need to find more cash and consequently default, already at a record level will continue to increase placing more and more stress on the banking sector.
    Spain is not out of the woods, its in the mire.

  • #103807
    Profile photo of Fuengi (Andrew)
    Fuengi (Andrew)
    Participant

    hi logan

    i was under the impression that what has caused the problem in portugal was due to the last austerity budget not being approved by the senate, which cuase the resignation of the president (or prime minister?).

    I assume there is more confidence with spain (for this week anyway) because so far the spanish senate have been doing what is needed to keep the markets happy

    correct?

  • #103811
    Profile photo of logan
    logan
    Participant

    So far yes. There is a political and public consensus in Spain for austerity, unlike Portugal whose opposition seem to inhabit another planet. They will now have it imposed by the men from Brussels and it’s likely to be far tougher than the government tried and failed to get through the parliament. Stupid playing politics in a national time of need.
    Although there is that consensus in Spain I am sure the real state of their deficit is yet to be revealed. The banks could be a tipping point. The economy is not going to grow in the short term and the deficit will increase.
    If the bond markets keep faith Spain will avoid a bail out but it’s too close to call.
    Ignore what politicians and bankers say on the subject they are simply trying to talk up market confidence like desperate estate agents.

  • #103813
    Profile photo of kgpoc
    kgpoc
    Participant

    Spain will NOT need a bail out!

    Let’s not quote figures adding up, because those can go both ways (japan)! This is whether the cap markets fund Spain for less that about +-7% for the next 3 years!

    Lets look at where the others were first: Greece, Ireland and Portugal had the more capitalist of the socialists in power, so better business minded people in the eyes of the markets and they could not make it work.
    In Spain you have the socialists in power and they were able to come up with some tough concessions (some say week, but they got some big ones through like the tax increase) with barely a hitch. The markets know that if you let this settle for a year and come back from more, you will probably get it. There is also the more Capitalist government PP waiting in the wings, and the cap markets will give them a lower risk premium than PSOE. Spain has about 5-8 of the European top 40 Companies (by market cap or revenue) and probably within the top 150 in the world. Portugal, Ireland and Greece don’t have 8 between them.
    ERE (the government help plan for Spanish companies to take on their worker payroll) is decreasing and the new filings for extension are dropping too.

    I do not believe housing is a buy, I believe housing prices will still fall, I do not think the economy will do more than 1% growth annually for the next 2-3 years. Nor do I like Zapatero or Rajoy so I am quite sure I am not deluded.. 🙂

  • #103814
    Profile photo of logan
    logan
    Participant

    I understand your points kgpoc and they are valid.
    However I and other market commentators cannot be so sure. This year I think the figure is around €70 billion of bond maturity to repay. Then the bank restructuring to conform with Basle 111 estimated by Moddy’s to cost €100bn. So there’s a new €170bn of debt on top of the current pile.
    Then add lack of growth to the mix, mass unemployment, lower tax revenues and higher social payments. If that scenario lasts an additional 2 years as you suggest what then?
    The rating agencies will not simply sit on their hands whilst the bond markets become nervous.

  • #103822
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    Anonymous
    Participant

    @logan wrote:

    I understand your points kgpoc and they are valid.
    However I and other market commentators cannot be so sure. This year I think the figure is around €70 billion of bond maturity to repay. Then the bank restructuring to conform with Basle 111 estimated by Moddy’s to cost €100bn. So there’s a new €170bn of debt on top of the current pile.
    Then add lack of growth to the mix, mass unemployment, lower tax revenues and higher social payments. If that scenario lasts an additional 2 years as you suggest what then?
    The rating agencies will not simply sit on their hands whilst the bond markets become nervous.

    taking into account the mass unemployment spain is in a far stronger position than it appears as we all know in spain these benifits do not last for ever like they do in the uk.so the stress caused by this group will ease as time goes on making on paper the situation seem like its improving.This could be where we will start to see unrest as people loose their benifits,houses and start to go hungry.

  • #103823
    Profile photo of logan
    logan
    Participant

    So does the Spanish state simply cut them loose or place them on other benefits? There must be some other means of minimum support. If they gave people nothing it would be the only western democratic country which did not provide at least a subsistence allowance for their people.
    Spain is not North Africa. If it were the African migrants will be very disappointed. 🙁

  • #103824
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    Do not kid yourself, Spain is Africa !!!!!!!!!!!!!.

  • #103825
    Profile photo of katy
    katy
    Spectator

    Unemployment benefit runs out after 2 years (they are also removed from unemployment figures!). Not any safety net after that and many rely on charities to provide them with basic rations, milk, rice etc. No rent subsidies like in the UK.

  • #103826
    Profile photo of logan
    logan
    Participant

    That’s surprising to me. In France you can have a comfortable career living on the state if you choose, especially with children. Many make that lifestyle choice.
    So this begs another question, why do so many immigrants work on the black doing labourer, usually agricultural work that the Spanish will not touch? Or is this another myth.

  • #103828
    Profile photo of katy
    katy
    Spectator

    @logan wrote:

    So this begs another question, why do so many immigrants work on the black doing labourer, usually agricultural work that the Spanish will not touch? Or is this another myth.

    Because many of the immigrants are illegal (sin papeles). Also they work in very bad conditions. In Almería they work long hours under plastic filled with toxic chemicals. Many work for as little as 4 euro per hour.

    There was a report in the spanish media a few weeks ago where a Grandmother’s pension was keeping a family of five.

  • #103830
    Profile photo of logan
    logan
    Participant

    Hard times indeed. I can only see the future consequences of this difficult economic situation in Spain being civil disorder and higher levels of criminality and stagflation.
    Families no doubt rally round and help each other out but that is only temporarily sustainable.
    I’m even more sure that unless Spain can create employment and increase it’s tax revenues an EU bailout will be required in the long term.
    The country simple cannot compete in an economic environment designed to suit wealthier nations such as Germany or France. If it had control over it’s own economy, reformed is restrictive labour laws, reduce corporation tax and IVA, devalue it’s currency and export its way out of the mire as it did so many times before, then there would be hope.
    Even the property market might become attractive to foreign investors again.
    Trouble is aint going to happen. 🙁

  • #103840
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    Here is another example of the experts’ view of Spain:

    http://www.elpais.com/articulo/english/IMF/European/Union/line/up/to/heap/praise/on/Spain/elpepueng/20110410elpeng_4/Ten

    I must admit it’s difficult to know who to believe, and I’m being sincere. The Telegraph reported on the same conference but didn’t mention anything about Spain being praised in this way by some seemingly knowledgeable economists.

    Yet El Pais seems to be a respected newspaper, without a political agenda, the same edition highlights several corruption scandals in the country.

    Who else can you turn to, to find out the truth? Reuters? If they came up with a short cable at some future date to say that Spain had applied for a bailout, then I would believe it and I would be surprised, but not that surprised.

  • #103841
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    Anonymous
    Participant

    good article praise for the measures being taken is one thing that doesn’t surprise me but that they think the banks are in good shape does or is it they are just talking up the situation so china and others will continue to lend spain money so they can service their debt and hence avoid a bailout

  • #103844
    Profile photo of logan
    logan
    Participant

    There is a general across the board ‘talking up Spain’ going on right now. If they think this hot air will convince the bond markets and rating agencies of anything they are truly deluded.

  • #103849
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    Anonymous
    Participant

    @logan wrote:

    There is a general across the board ‘talking up Spain’ going on right now. If they think this hot air will convince the bond markets and rating agencies of anything they are truly deluded.

    The talking up reminds me of owners of football clubs giving all their support to the manager on a saturday afternoon before firing him on the monday

  • #103852
    Profile photo of logan
    logan
    Participant

    @dartboy wrote:

    The talking up reminds me of owners of football clubs giving all their support to the manager on a saturday afternoon before firing him on the monday

    😆 😆

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