Mark Stucklin seems to think property prices are

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This topic contains 77 replies, has 19 voices, and was last updated by Profile photo of katy katy 9 years, 9 months ago.

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  • #52695
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    Anonymous
    Participant

    going to see a big drop. Is he usually on the ball?

  • #69822
    Profile photo of Inez
    Inez
    Participant

    Yes – very experienced and knows his stuff.

    Any agent here telling the truth will tell you the same news

  • #69823
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    There again
    Many are saying this about the U.K and have been for the past year or so.
    Just trying to look on the bright side but the sad fact is its going to be difficult for the next few years.
    What I find is difficult is from what point are prices going to fall and in what areas as there was no doubt that some properties had valuations that were picked out of the sky and a bit like the U.K several years back ,when falls happened it was only noticable on overpriced property.
    Say for instance someone bought an off plan 3 years ago for say 220K or 300 K euros in say Calahonda/Benalmadana/Estepona/ Manilva.
    How do these thousands of people now sit down and decide what their options are
    Have they lost money/are they about even or will they in fact have lost or will loose money even at the off plan price.
    Lets not go into desperate sales just where the market is balanced at the moment.
    Why would anyone want to buy in Spain at all at the moment if no one knows where to bottom is

  • #69827
    Profile photo of Aunty Val
    Aunty Val
    Participant

    Having worked through the recession of the early 90’s in the UK there are some enormous similarities between then and now (in Spain).

    Firstly, it is localised. This means that people who are suffering on the CDS with their 1 or 2 year old, standard layout, 2 bed flat will be balanced by those that are selling a finca in some rural part of Granada or Malaga province. The two markets are quite different albeit that they are affected by an overall effect of the Spanish property market.

    The worst affected part of the UK in the early 90’s was Docklands where enormous numbers of new build apartments and houses had been built (akin to CDS) whereas sales were booming in other parts of the country (admittedly these areas did catch up with London & the SE when the recession continued).

    Did people stop moving? No, because for a number of reasons people still need to move – births deaths and marriages (and divorces nowadays) all affect the market.

    We just need to find a more realistic level for all buyers (spanish included) to start making the market move again. This goes for the CDS as well – as soon as those with money can see a bargain they may well start to pick up these properties and that in itself will start the momentum again.

    Property is cyclical. Prices will return eventually. Its sad for those that have to sell but for the rest of us that can sit out the downturn it is simply a question of time.

  • #69830
    Profile photo of katy
    katy
    Spectator

    I know a lot of people who are selling here because they hate what has happened to the coast, overbuilt, overpriced etc. none of them for financial reasons. The Germans particularly have fell out of love with Andalucia. The property market here is different from the UK

  • #69831
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    Anonymous
    Participant

    My position is more nuanced than that. True, I’m bearish, but I’m not holding my breath for a big drop (though I wouldn’t rule it out either for the most over-developed areas). Read this for a better idea of what I actually think.

    http://www.spanishpropertyinsight.com/spanish-property-market-2006.htm

    Mark

  • #69833
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    Anonymous
    Participant

    Mark, how do you see Javea performing?

  • #69834
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    Anonymous
    Participant

    Sorry, but I just have to comment on statements made here.
    “Having worked through the recession of the early 90’s in the UK there are some enormous similarities between then and now (in Spain).
    Firstly, it is localised.”
    This statement must be meant as a joke. “Localised”, when it was Nationwide (there was a recession remember, they aren’t localised).

    “The worst affected part of the UK in the early 90’s was Docklands”
    In that particular part of UK maybe, buth other parts suffered equally or more.

    “Did people stop moving? No, “
    Yes

    “We just need to find a more realistic level for all buyers (spanish included)”
    “We” do not find, the economy dictates.

    “to start making the market move again. This goes for the CDS as well – as soon as those with money can see a bargain they may well start to pick up these properties and that in itself will start the momentum again.”
    That is assuming there is no risk for self funded acquisitions, otherwise investors do have more sense that to purchase something just because it is cheap.

    “Property is cyclical. Prices will return eventually.”
    Historically 10 years.

    “Many are saying this about the U.K and have been for the past year or so”
    Which was and is a forecast because of amongst other things, borrowings are so high.

    “How do these thousands of people now sit down and decide what their options are “
    Sometimes no choice, their lenders determine their fate.

  • #69836
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    Katy said – quote

    I know a lot of people who are selling here because they hate what has happened to the coast, overbuilt, overpriced etc. none of them for financial reasons

    how true, ……many areas on the CDS are now so ugly, badly built and just a horrible reflection of out of control greed by developers, agents, councils, corrupt officials etc., that until the cranes stop and the ‘oh so slow’ laws change in favour of buyers over the sharks, then why would anyone expect the CDS to flourish? I think to much damage has probably been done to ever restore the appeal the CDS used to have, but at least if a plan to halt the building and tighten up on current building regs were put in place NOW!, and made public, it might at least give people confidence to think, ”o.k mistakes have made, but now change for the best is really happening, lets wait for the dust to settle and then look again”.

  • #69845
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    Anonymous
    Participant

    @goodstich44 wrote:

    Katy said – quote

    I know a lot of people who are selling here because they hate what has happened to the coast, overbuilt, overpriced etc. none of them for financial reasons

    how true, ……many areas on the CDS are now so ugly, badly built and just a horrible reflection of out of control greed by developers, agents, councils, corrupt officials etc., that until the cranes stop and the ‘oh so slow’ laws change in favour of buyers over the sharks, then why would anyone expect the CDS to flourish? I think to much damage has probably been done to ever restore the appeal the CDS used to have, but at least if a plan to halt the building and tighten up on current building regs were put in place NOW!, and made public, it might at least give people confidence to think, ”o.k mistakes have made, but now change for the best is really happening, lets wait for the dust to settle and then look again”.

    My thoughts as well.

    IMHO, house prices on the coast will fall because the area has been devastated. Not all areas but the hastily built clones definitely. It will resolve itself but it’s going to take quite a time to stabalise I think.

  • #69852
    Profile photo of Aunty Val
    Aunty Val
    Participant

    In response to mg’s post!

    Localised was a reference to the property market not the recession! Give me some credit.

    Indeed, most of the country suffered at some stage – the point I was making was that it was felt more critically in Docklands at the start of the recession. Much the same as some parts of the coastal strip now.

    You are saying that people didn’t move for the duration of the recession – don’t be bluddy stupid – now who’s “joking”. People still have to move even in the darkest days of any recession.

    You really are some sort of prat – “historically 10 years” well thanks for that.

    I look forward to your next contribution…

  • #69857
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    Anonymous
    Participant

    “Localised was a reference to the property market not the recession”
    Docklands may have been the worst hit in London, but many other locations througout UK were the same or worse.
    Check the evidence, statistics.

    “Indeed, most of the country suffered at some stage – the point I was making was that it was felt more critically in Docklands at the start of the recession.”
    So why was it felt more critically in Doclands compared to elsewhere.

    “You are saying that people didn’t move for the duration of the recession”
    Yes, that is correct, there was a massive drop in relocations. Again, check evidence and stats.,

    “You really are some sort of prat”
    If you believe so and it humours you then yes.
    Just a humble being that happens to be familar with the property market, the trading of and investment in.

    “historically 10 years”
    Evidence & stats.,

    A parting comment. You seem to be under the impression that UK revolved around Docklands?

  • #69858
    Profile photo of Aunty Val
    Aunty Val
    Participant

    No, not at all.

    I am simply saying that some areas were affected sooner than others. It reminds me of the fact that the CDS coastal areas are suffering whereas some of the inland areas are still active (relatively speaking).

    It being a local thing (property that is).

    I’m all for statistics by the way.

  • #69863
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    Anonymous
    Participant

    m.g

    I for one would love to see the information and the stats which show a 10 year period as I am sure would many more. that have invested in Spain or the U.K for that matter.
    If you would be so kind ?

  • #69864
    Profile photo of Inez
    Inez
    Participant

    I would love to see TRUE stats as I have tried in vain to obtain these over the years.

    Its impossible as sales are based on undeclared money and so NO-ONE really knows what is being paid and therefore the actual increase/decrease.

    One bank I know increases their valuatins by 10% per year regardless!!
    Totally mad and totally unrealistic.

    Crazy taking `stats`on asking prices as this is in no way a treu reflection either.

    I pull my hair out at it – something is ONLY worth what someone else is prepared to pay for it, no more and no less!

    The o0nly buyers either want 110% financing (and ideally cashback) OR are genuinely wanting a retirement place. They still want a bargain though and offer way below asking prices.

    In general our prices are at least 20 to 30% below other agents and even owners prices and even then they are not flying off the shelves!

    The confidence in the market has totally gone and after this coming weekend show followed by the one after – Viv Espana – I can give you a TRUE indication of the market. But then we too have been preaching this ,future, for 4 years now. Unfortunately even we didnt forsee the own goal struck by the recent scandals!

  • #69865
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    Anonymous
    Participant

    You will see that my comments are regarding the UK property market, its slump and trend. Be it commercial, leisure or residential properties.
    You will agree that the UK market and its method of funding does differ from that in Spain.
    Banks in UK do not tend to over value (to 110% and the likes), which is often where the problems can start, which I believe is also a factor in the recession in the property market in Spain.

    “Its impossible as sales are based on undeclared money and so NO-ONE really knows what is being paid and therefore the actual crease/decrease.”
    I assume you are talking about Spanish deals here?

    “One bank I know increases their valuatins by 10% per year regardless!!
    Totally mad and totally unrealistic.”
    I suppose they have to on new developments, to support the developers claims of year on year increases in value, be it true or not. They are funding the developer.

    “Crazy taking `stats`on asking prices as this is in no way a treu reflection either. “
    Couldn’t agree more.

    “Unfortunately even we didnt forsee the own goal struck by the recent scandals!”
    OK, so wait 10 years, another generation of buyers come along and much is forgotten and forgiven.
    Remember, it is not too long ago in UK that interest rates reache 15+%, but many forget, choose not to remember, or were not about to experience it, so the borrow as much as they can to fund a UK home, then use to fund a holiday property, then blame all if interest rate goes up by a quarter point. Another factor in the slump in Spanish sales?

  • #69866
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    i just think it all comes back to the same thing in Spain, greed, unregulated sharks, laws that don’t protect people against them, and massive corruption at many levels. Until that lot is seen to be put right, what chance of recovery? At least now it’s out in the open, so huge potential for improvement!!!!

    Due to the above, (and i’m not prenting U.K is perfect by any means) i think comparison with the U.K market is at best unlikely.

  • #69867
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    Inez Bit like the stock market at the moment.
    The problem is that until things settle down it appears difficult to see what the actual valuations of property prices are.
    Are you a buyer or a seller, if you aint selling then its worth X and if your buying its worth Y
    Feel its difficult to say prices are going to fall, full stop at this point of time as to much is coming up regarding decisions at local and perhaps national level for anyone to call.
    The one point I have is that an apartment in Marbella at the moment costs around the same as an apartment similar in Torquay and that’s a dive nowadays.
    If anyone had a crystal ball at the moment ?
    m.g I would just luv to see what point in the cycle are you saying ,it will take 10 years as if you ARE right then I am bailing out now.
    goodstich44 Unregulated sharks ? in the U.K unless you know different estate agents than me and you give them half a chance some would do the same.
    There are good and bad. ( NOT EVERYONE IS A SHARK )

  • #69868
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    Anonymous
    Participant

    glassman

    please dont try and pretend the system in the U.K, is anything like as bad as that in Spain. Of course there are bad agents in the U.K., as there are good one’s in Spain. I’ve not bought many, but enough properties in the U.K to know that there are at least several bodies of protection in the U.K that you can turn to, when things start to go wrong. (and not just self regulating shark networks) And that protection goes a long way to stopping the U.K sharks from prospering as they do in Spain. As you say, ”given half a chance the U.K agents would do the same”…. That’s my point, as a rule thanks heavens, they are not given that chance, though obviously there will always be exceptions.

  • #69869
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    Anonymous
    Participant

    goodstich 44
    Cant argue with that my ole son.
    Good and bad everywhere and worse wherever there is money to be made anywhere in the world.
    Spain has had more than its fair share of the greedy ba


    ards and I really dont know just how these scum sleep at nights.
    Just have to pick up the bits and hopefully? start to build some foundations of some sort of trust as hopefully the real pigs are in pastures new.
    One good sign when I was down there a couple of weeks back is someone fully shopfitted a cafe/bar without planning near Estepona at a cost of 80,000 euros and had to take the lot out.
    Just perhaps they are starting to listen but I wont hold my breath.

  • #69870
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    Anonymous
    Participant

    “Spain has had more than its fair share of the greedy ba


    ards and I really dont know just how these scum sleep at nights.”
    So are you talking about the agents, vendors or purchasers?
    Remember, the agent may be a shark, but both the purchaser and vendor or often equally as greedy. There is also a problem in recent years, where many people without sufficient funds of their own, have puchased a property hoping to make a fast buck in a 12 month time, or if off plan, before they have to pay in full.
    The above is from pure ignorance and greed.
    The property investment market is a long term investment, not just a quickie, but here is always someone who has a “mate” who made a “few grand”, so believes that he can go to a bank, borrow and get 25% profit in a year. Yes, there are those mugs, read about it.
    The same applies for UK and Spain, commercial and residential.

  • #69871
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    Anonymous
    Participant

    mg said – quote

    Remember, the agent may be a shark, but both the purchaser and vendor or often equally as greedy.

    mg
    we are covering old ground here, but you are joking i hope?, surely you are not comparing someone who puts their life savings in a development, hoping for a capital gain, retirement home etc, with the shark practices on the CDS? ……..Yes people have been naive, but does that make it right to screw them and get away with it?

  • #69873
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    Anonymous
    Participant

    “someone who puts their life savings in a development, hoping for a capital gain, retirement home etc, “
    No. But they should read up and be aware that capital growth in property, especially short term, cannot be guaranteed. Also, the holiday property market is more vulnerable that the residential market. People need homes to live in, but don’t NEED a holiday home, although they may dream of one.

    I did say:
    “The property investment market is a long term investment, not just a quickie, but here is always someone who has a “mate” who made a “few grand”, so believes that he can go to a bank, borrow and get 25% profit in a year. Yes, there are those mugs, read about it.”

  • #69874
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    Anonymous
    Participant

    mg

    o.k, so those ‘mugs’ deserve all they get do they?, very nice!

  • #69876
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    Anonymous
    Participant

    Sorry, but my sentiments are that anyone trying to make a quick buck, should also be prepared to loose a few bucks.
    If investment or deal was guaranteed growth, many more people would be wealthy.
    Remember Lloyds?

  • #69879
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    Anonymous
    Participant

    mg

    i would agree if we were talking purely speculation, but we are not, we are talking loss, through liars and cheats and a crap legal system that allows them to exist. ……..but somehow, i don’t think we will ever agree on that one?

  • #69880
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    mg – unfortunately in all this scandal mess, there are two distinct groups of people who are caught up. Yes there are the speculators who buy/sell to make ‘the quick buck’ and who are having their fingers burned currently, but there are also the likes of goodstich and myself who just wanted to buy a new home in Spain, using the proceeds of their UK house (as in my case) or life savings. When we unwittingly got caught up with illegal builds etc. our only real crime was being totally unaware of the corruption that existed. Sadly, were not aware of forums such as this four years ago.
    Many estate agents (Inez excluded 😉 ) who have posted here in the past have labelled us as naive, stupid, greedy, ignorant and several other adjectives I don’t wish to repeat – but it is easy for them to be ‘in the know’ being in the business, often for many years, in Spain.

    As goodstich says, being naive or ‘ignorant’ of the facts does not mean that anyone deserves to be screwed by a group of people – be they developers, lawyers or agents – who see innocent purchasers who come to Spain with a good heart just to buy a ‘home’ for whatever reason, as easy prey.

    Personally, I think the Spanish government has turned a blind eye all these years viewing all the property taxes etc. as a nice little earner.
    But do feel the tide is turning, awareness is slowly dawning in the UK via the media, and when things really start biting where it matters most – in the Government’s coffers through dwindling sales, I think the lion will wake up and realise that it is in its own interest to start acting.

    Governments all over the world are famous for always turning that blind eye while it suits, but with falling sales resulting in less tax revenue – it might just be the ‘kick up the butt’ that is needed. Forget the immorality of the situation, what is right or wrong, it will take ‘pain in the purse’ to change things.

  • #69882
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    Anonymous
    Participant

    “but there are also the likes of goodstich and myself who just wanted to buy a new home in Spain, using the proceeds of their UK house (as in my case) or life savings.”
    I sympathis to the limit for people who have been caught, but let’s assume that you spend 250,000€ on a holiday home in a foreign Country, where you perhaps know little about the laws of the Country, or “quirks” in their way of dealing. It is the same as buying a helicopter from an overseas seller, and finding out that it is not air worthy. Would you do it. If so, you could expect that you may be caught out. Why part with so much hard earned cash, by paying for something which is a computer generated scheme maybe, then signing a PoA, giving someone the freedom to handle your cash.
    Bet not many would give the cash to a UK agent or developer directly?
    It is bad enough losing money for whatever the reason, but when it is not yours (borrowed) all the more reason why one should check, double check, then start checking again, as you are liable, irrespective if you end up with the goods or not.
    It used to be the joke “don’t believe a car salesman”, but people go to listen to the sales pitch of a so called agent, believe what they say as Gospel and sign up.
    I do sympathise, however, there is also an element of stupidity & or naivety.
    There is now much publicity about the goings on, in the media, in Spain and UK, but people are still buying, although as someone has mentioned the sales shows are not doing as well. Could that just be because of interest rates, and if they drop, will people start throwing money away again?

  • #69884
    Profile photo of Inez
    Inez
    Participant

    Yes many people did agree to purchases without viewing, and in some cases this has lead to fingers being burned, but the vast majority of people bought believing the information they were given. Lawyers only now are checking all documents. Until a couple of months ago you could easily get a high mortgage on a property and complete despite there being no occupation license in place.

    If one is gambling in a casino then fair enough win or lose, but when you are told repeatedly by lawyers things are ok and legal, only to then later find it is not, cannot be the fault of the purchaser.

    As hard as one may try to find information to protect oneself, it isnt there. Lawyers even on a company board are SUPPOSED to act in the best interest, not blatently lie. I have seen brochures, layouts floorplans etc when the finished article did not look anything like what had been signed for – how can that be correct?

    I had one lady with a 3 bed penthouse wanting me to sell it for her – offplan – when I went there she had ‘bought a 95 sqm property with large terrace, signed for it, seen the show flat. The reality when I went after construction was a 69sqm 3 bed 2 bath box – unsaleable! Misrepresentation by someone!

    People who went to exhibitons should expect the truth, not a pile of crap spouted out. People act on this information and the truth is the agents didnt give a monkeys about the outcome – they just wanted their money.

    People who have money must have had some brains to be able to get into the position they are in, then they ask all the right questions and rely on proffessionals to help smooth it along. Then all hell breaks loose.

    Many if not most agents are from the timeshare era – and it shows!

    Doesnt ever make it right.

  • #69885
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    Anonymous
    Participant

    mg

    just a thought

    if after much research, you pay an expert for their knowledge in helicopters to guide you through putting a deposit down on your helicoper plus another expert in the law of the country to check out the legal side of it for you, expecting it to be build within 18 months Then after being lied to for years that it was being built, you are then offered one half the size, with no blades!……when you approach your so called experts in their field, and they then deny all knowledge of wrong doings, and say to you, ”well buy it anyway, i’m sure you can claim on the guarantee……..oh, by the way, there is no guarantee ……sorry!!”

    would you expect people to turn round and say ‘ well that’s your fault, that was the gamble you took’ ??????

    so easy to be wise after the event.

  • #69886
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    @inez wrote:

    If one is gambling in a casino then fair enough win or lose, but when you are told repeatedly by lawyers things are ok and legal, only to then later find it is not, cannot be the fault of the purchaser.

    Inez, our developer didn’t need lawyers to tell purchasers everything was ok – they had a videocam on their website showing ‘the latest’ re. the build.
    What they failed to show was that our plot/part of the developments was still wasteland and what they were showing was a different plart of the development that was being built. The developer’s map on their website however still showed the complete development in it’s total.

  • #69887
    Profile photo of Inez
    Inez
    Participant

    Crikey thats even worse. Really its unbelievable what is now comming out of the woodwork.

    In the UK thats out and out fraud, an offence of the theft act – obtaining money by deception. The police would be called in and criminal charges made.

    Really does make my blood boil!

  • #69888
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    “just a thought
    if after much research, you pay an expert for their knowledge in helicopters to guide you through putting a deposit down on your helicoper plus another expert in the law of the country to check out the legal side of it for you, expecting it to be build within 18 months Then after being lied to for years that it was being built, you are then offered one half the size, with no blades!……when you approach your so called experts in their field, and they then deny all knowledge of wrong doings, and say to you, ”well buy it anyway, i’m sure you can claim on the guarantee……..oh, by the way, there is no guarantee ……sorry!!”
    would you expect people to turn round and say ‘ well that’s your fault, that was the gamble you took’ ?????? “
    1. Wouldn’t have parted with money in advance. Placed on deposit in a joint account maybe.
    2. Would not consider making a large purchase of anything to be constructed, without at least monthly visits to check on construction progress.
    3. “that was the gamble you took” – Certainly would have been. The buck would stop with me, if I had not overseen the progress for myself also, had not scrimped on legal fees etc., (like many have).
    An inde., GOOD lawyer is needed at all times, unless you want to listen to the words of the selling agent, remembering, his interest is in getting things signed as quicly and easily as possible. Irrespective.

  • #69889
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    Anonymous
    Participant

    “In the UK thats out and out fraud, an offence of the theft act – obtaining money by deception.”
    Inez, again, I couldn’t agree more, but it is not UK. Remember, there are still Countries that cut off hands for theft.
    God help if us Brits decide it would make a good holiday destination. May end up with houses but no hands, as in UK we would not cut off peoples hands.
    Law of the land – we may not like it but………..
    If you are going to live in a place, as a resident or temporary visitor, worth knowing the laws?
    In UK, we don’t have to carry yellow waistcoats, but that isn’t an acceptable excuse to Spanish police.

  • #69890
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    Anonymous
    Participant

    @mg wrote:

    Law of the land – we may not like it but………..

    mg – The problem is it is not so much that the laws are different because it is a different country to UK. The problem is the ‘Laws of the (Spanish) land’ are blatantly ignored.
    For example there is a law (ley 57/68) that states that all off-plans must have a Bank Guarantee provided by the developer, free of charge, to cover down payments. It is a criminal offence for a developer not to provide this, punishable by not only fines but imprisonment.

    Yet how many thousands of purchasers ended up hitting their heads against a brick wall trying to get one, the developers – even the big ones like Aifos – just refuse.

    The comeback? Zero. No punishment for the developers for not giving one, no punishment for the lawyers who didn’t ensure their client received one…………even a report to the Colegio de Abogados making an official complaint that a lawyer failed to get one resulted in the Colegio not taking any action as they deemed the lawyer in question “had not broken any of their rules”.
    What happened to derelict of duty and leaving their client financially exposed?? And this is a law we are talking about.

    The laws are there and not so over-different to the UK, I don’t see that beng the problem at all when it comes to buying in Spain.
    It’s the enforcement of the law that just seems to be non-existent.
    This is why, at present, Spain is a no-hoper when it comes to the law.

  • #69891
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    Anonymous
    Participant

    That should read ‘ley 57/68’ – excuse the guy with the glasses, it did this to me a few months ago.
    Ley fifty seven/sixty eight (in case he appears again)!

  • #69894
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    “The problem is it is not so much that the laws are different because it is a different country to UK. The problem is the ‘Laws of the (Spanish) land’ are blatantly ignored.”
    Yes, but that is a “quirk” which appear acceptable in Spain, which similarities also exist in Italy.
    There are “quirks” in UK laws.

    Charlie, I read what you say and you are right, but people still fall into the trap, despite all the publicity, warnings, etc., These such people must accept some responsibility?

    Regarding the request for statistics and the 10 year cycle, would you also want that I post our financial trading figures.
    Be serious, property investors work on a 10 year cyle and it has cost substantially to acquire the data and collate our own data over the past 20 years.
    Regarding the criticism of some of my comments (the response seems to have disappeared from this thread now), unfortunatley, whilst I truly sympathise with the genuine people who have been ripped off, as we have all read, there are some who were aware that things were not right, were still prepared to take the risk and end up the ones who scream loudest when the consequences have to be faced.

  • #69895
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    katy
    Spectator

    Good post Charlie, exactly how I see the law in spain.

  • #69896
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    Anonymous
    Participant

    m g

    You quoted the 10 years and all I am asking is that you substantiate it as you appear to feel you have the answers to many of errors we mortals have encountered.
    Where does this 10 year cycle start from?”Where is the low point”/Where is the middle point” Where is the,high point.” WHERE ARE WE NOW.
    If you can claim to be able to do this with property and perhaps the stock market then you are one clever guy YOUR QUOTE”Property is cyclical. prices will return eventually.” Historically 10 years.
    5 years ago they said the stock market would take 15 years to recover,so lets face it your statement regarding the 10 year cycle is perhaps equally just a guess
    Tell me one thing?
    My apartment value ? 300,000 euros are you saying that its going to take 10 years to see a return ?
    Even I cant agree with the totally black and white picture as in the end all many did was make a simple mistake of trusting a few.

    Hope this is O.K Mark ?

  • #69897
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    Glassman, I can’t see what your problem is, or understanding.
    The “cycle” will be the same as any graph, made up of peaks and troughs. Pitch tends to be 10 years, therefore, 10 years from a pek, a further peak should be experienced.
    Don’t take the easy way out and ask for freebie stats., which have been gathered, do some research if you haven’t already done so.

    “all I am asking is that you substantiate it “
    We do not have to qualify our success or failure to anyone other than ourselves and our record is proof in itself.

    “as you appear to feel you have the answers to many of errors we mortals have encountered”
    Now that is something I wish I had, can anyone please post the “answers” on here?

    “Where is the,high point.” WHERE ARE WE NOW.”
    Assuming you are a serious investor, your own records and research would give an indication.
    Property investment is not a game and investors do not invest on “gut feeling” alone. You need good records, data adn advisors.

    “If you can claim to be able to do this with property and perhaps the stock market then you are one clever guy “
    Don’t seem to recall mentioning the Stock Market, but things aren’t too good this week, there again, a long term policy is one I go for in this market also.

    “5 years ago they said the stock market would take 15 years to recover”
    Who are “they”, it is not what my advisors claimed.

    “so lets face it your statement regarding the 10 year cycle is perhaps equally just a guess “
    If you say so, then yes, and I have wasted a lot of money

    “Tell me one thing?
    My apartment value ? 300,000 euros are you saying that its going to take 10 years to see a return ? “
    What return are you looking for, was it overpriced when purchased, did you require funding, what are the terms of funding, in the event of self funding what loss of returns have been experienced?
    May well be criticised for my parting shot, but if you have invested 300,000€ in a holiday property and cannot answer your own questions, you should seek advice from a professional.

  • #69898
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    m.g
    With respect.
    It is you that quoted these figures and if you cant quantify them then why make them in the first place.
    You make these off the cuff statements and then request WE back them up.
    Your the one with all of the answers so put up or s —- t up as alot of people look for advice and help on this forum.
    “Have you heard about the pigeon and the statue”?
    Well alot of people feel like the statue at the moment and your quotes that have no basis hardly help anyone.
    I take it from the advice you had regarding the stock market came from the same source as you are giving now I.E PURELY GUESS WORK.
    Again with repect you do appear a very big pigeon as we can all have that “!I told you so attidude”
    With regards to my property value in 10 years,”YOUR QUOTE Property is cyclical. prices will RETURN EVENTUALLY.” Historically 10 years.
    You appear to be the expert I was just asking your opinion and if you dont know just say so.
    WE STATUES ARE IN AWE, and await the anticipated you humble responce

  • #69899
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    This is a really fascinating thread.

    Speaking as an amateur property investor (I now have six, all in England) I personally would never invest anywhere abroad, and certainly not Spain. There are too many unknowns and uncertainties. I have absolutely no idea how much a property is really worth in any foreign country. In the UK, I can easily assess if a property is below market value by various means.

    In the UK I have confidence in my solicitor that they act in MY interest, I have confidence in my mortgage broker that they act MY interest, I have confidence in some agents, as they know I will only invest in good deals. I have no such confidence abroad. Basically in the UK, most brokers, agents and solicitors recognise the value of honesty and integrity to preserve reputation and secure repeat business. In the UK people inherently trust the system, the problem arises when people assume they can trust a foreign system in the same way. It may be naive to do so, but quite understandable.

    I have every sympathy with people who trusted the system and all they wanted was the home of their dreams. However, if I was looking for a place to retire to, I would not look to buy in UK or abroad. Why tie up your capital? My neighbour rented a nice apartment in Lanzarote for £5k per year and had a great retirement living there for 6 months per year in in Uk for the other. Do the maths, cash in your property and rent and enjoy life.
    Kevin

  • #69901
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    Kevin
    Doing well by all accounts but the world is a big place and perhaps its case of a balanced portfolio investing in other markets and depending on when you bought I wouldnt be to sure on the U.K market at the moment either.

    m.g Yep the stock market dipped this week but as we both know that this represents a buying opportunity (thats what its all about)
    Give you even money that the F.S.T.E reaches 7,000 by the end of the year.

  • #69902
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    “Give you even money that the F.S.T.E reaches 7,000 by the end of the year.”
    Not interested, but have increased stock this week.

    “I wouldnt be to sure on the U.K market at the moment either”
    Yet again I must disagree, current trend for rent reviews on office, retail and industrial properties are up, up, up, and on a 5 yearly basis.

    “It is you that quoted these figures and if you cant quantify them then why make them in the first place”
    Not can’t won’t.
    Fund facts yourself, or all your life you will be listening to others and will never know where you are going.

  • #69904
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    m.g I to have bought in this week

    History shows that commercial follows domestic growth in the U.K so the commercial market in some areas could be good. (not so sure though as historically the big losers can be commercials and recall landlords begging for tenants at any rent)rent yeilds fall and this property value tumbles.

    You keep avoiding the issue here?
    ” YOUR QUOTE AGAIN “
    Property is cyclical prices “ WILL RETURN EVENTUALLY” Historically 10 years. (FROM WHAT POINT) just answer my question ?
    Think its not a case of cant, wont its a case of cant ,cant.
    Just some flippant off the cuff statement without a single way of quantifying and giving people with enough concerns more worry than they need.
    History can show statistics but NO ONE can guarantee the future of anything so perhaps the anorak politely be hung up as its facts that people are looking for at the moment with regards to this forum in general on Spanish property

  • #69905
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    @glassman wrote:

    Kevin
    Doing well by all accounts but the world is a big place and perhaps its case of a balanced portfolio investing in other markets and depending on when you bought I wouldnt be to sure on the U.K market at the moment either.

    m.g Yep the stock market dipped this week but as we both know that this represents a buying opportunity (thats what its all about)
    Give you even money that the F.S.T.E reaches 7,000 by the end of the year.

    Could not agree more about a balanced portfolio. That is why I also have significant investments in the stock market built up over several years and in several investment vehicles. The bottom line is that I only invest in things that I can understand and control and trust and are easy to manage. Foreign property just does not stack up in that respect.
    Kevin

  • #69906
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    kpw4v,

    While, I agree that you should not invest in anything you do not understand, no matter what the returns are ( I am not talking about gambling) and what you can have control upon.

    I am afraid you never have control with stock market. Reasons, funds managers control it. Sectors come and go and until you dont have team of spealist on each sector of the stock market events can over take. Not to mention political, (e.g Govt restriction on foreign holdings Rolls Royce and Rail track) /world events. World events may recover with time.

    Futher, money is made from other money i.e. the Banks. they will not lend you to buy into stock market.

    Property is a prudent way to invest and with banks money. To spread the risk you can invest in different countries. e.g recent % gain predictions.
    UK 6-7%, France 9-10%, Poland 12%, Spain& Italy 7%, morocco 15%,

    If you take an average return of say 10%, on borrowd money, without lifting a finger.

    I, understand this a simplistic, but I dont want the forum readers to go to sleep.

  • #69909
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    @shakeel wrote:

    kpw4v,

    While, I agree that you should not invest in anything you do not understand, no matter what the returns are ( I am not talking about gambling) and what you can have control upon.

    I am afraid you never have control with stock market. Reasons, funds managers control it. Sectors come and go and until you dont have team of spealist on each sector of the stock market events can over take. Not to mention political, (e.g Govt restriction on foreign holdings Rolls Royce and Rail track) /world events. World events may recover with time.

    Futher, money is made from other money i.e. the Banks. they will not lend you to buy into stock market.

    Property is a prudent way to invest and with banks money. To spread the risk you can invest in different countries. e.g recent % gain predictions.
    UK 6-7%, France 9-10%, Poland 12%, Spain& Italy 7%, morocco 15%,

    If you take an average return of say 10%, on borrowd money, without lifting a finger.

    I, understand this a simplistic, but I dont want the forum readers to go to sleep.

    At the risk of sending everybody to sleep, I agree I was being simplistic in stating I only invest in things I am in control of. Control is probably the wrong word to use. Perhaps understand how to extract maximum value would be a better description.

    At the end of the day, none of this investing stuff is cast iron guaranteed. If you want cast iron certainty, then put your money in the Building Society and get 1% after tax and inflation. However, the UK stock market and the UK property market offer good returns if invested in with care, due dilligence and research, and there are legal safeguards as well. With all due respect, nobody makes money by buying property or stocks. You only make money on property when you sell. And there is the rub, all talk of 15% growth in Morroco and 12% in Poland and 20% in the latest property hotspot are just baloney when you come to try and sell. They are just usually predictions based on hype.

    At least in the UK, the property market is based on sound fundamentals of a trustworthy legal system, competitive mortgage market and not enough houses available or being built to satisfy demand.

    K

  • #69910
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    If anyones interested in data on the Spanish market you might find some in this report by The Federal Reserve (US). Its a study of the performance of several international housing markets including the Spanish.

    -71 page PDF-

    http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/2005/841/ifdp841.pdf

  • #69911
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    I did not want to state the obvious that you only make profit when you sell property or stock and this profit is based on what one has paid for it at the out set.

    Yes, the projections may and may not be hype. It depends what/who you read and how independent the author is etc, etc.

    Like everthing in the market place. A price is what is one willing to accept. In the mean time for valuation purposes you need to book in a paper profit.

    While, I agree that British Housing market is advance, with good controls, and innovative financial produts. The entry levels are very high and to minimise the risk. The investor can spread the risk while remaining in the sector, a sector for which funding is easily availible and have genrous tax allowances.

  • #69912
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    Anonymous
    Participant

    Ponzi – have just scrolled through your link, now that is definitely going to send everyone to sleep!

    So for everyone out there who feels these guys are getting a little ‘in depth and serious’ I would just like to add my twopence worth in very much layman/simple terms.

    How about simply buying a piece of nice land, and sitting on it for a few years? As Winston Churchill said (or did I just read it in the Daily Mail?), land will always increase in value as they’re not making it anymore.

    My recent investment experience was to buy a 6000 sq. metre goat field (up a mountain with sea views) in a beautiful part of Greece last year. Haven’t built anything yet but going by land prices at present, it has increased in value by about 20%.
    I’m happy, so are the goats, and best of all it’s maintenance free (goat poo is biodegradable….).
    The stock market is too scary for me, think I’ll buy another goat field. 😀

  • #69914
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    i think Kevin has hit the nail on the head with his quote from an ealier post……

    ”Basically in the UK, most brokers, agents and solicitors recognise the value of honesty and integrity to preserve reputation and secure repeat business. In the UK people inherently trust the system, the problem arises when people assume they can trust a foreign system in the same way. It may be naive to do so, but quite understandable.”

    …….i know this is no big news, but i think it says such a lot about why things have got so bad, and why most people i know looking to buy, wont touch Spain with a bargepole now. Talk about shoot yourself in the foot!

  • #69915
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    Charlie
    I am happy for your purchase in Greece. You are indeed right about the land. However if property is for five years hold than land is atleast for twenty years.

    Land is ok, if you have cash floating aroud which you do not need and you wish to something for your children/grandchildren, university fee or a nest egg for their wedding etc.

    Banks will not be very willing to lend on it, so you have to service this. I have a few friends who have subcontracted their land for farming purposes etc. The only benefit is a few eggs/grapes.corn etc.

    If you are into buying land. Buy in Transalvania ( Romania for get it for 30years) present cost lesss than a € M2.

  • #69916
    Profile photo of katy
    katy
    Spectator

    If you buy land in Spain make sure you keep an eye on it. A german woman bought 5000m2 prime seafront land on the CDS. When she visited many years after there was a hotel built on it!! She was taking it to court, never found out what happened.

  • #69917
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    “if property is for five years hold”
    I think that commerical property should be held for much longer that 5 years, as most commercial leases tend to have a 5 year review pattern (although 3 years where a shorter lease), the full benefit is not seen until after the first review.

  • #69918
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    @charlie wrote:

    Ponzi – have just scrolled through your link, now that is definitely going to send everyone to sleep!

    So for everyone out there who feels these guys are getting a little ‘in depth and serious’ I would just like to add my twopence worth in very much layman/simple terms.

    How about simply buying a piece of nice land, and sitting on it for a few years? As Winston Churchill said (or did I just read it in the Daily Mail?), land will always increase in value as they’re not making it anymore.

    My recent investment experience was to buy a 6000 sq. metre goat field (up a mountain with sea views) in a beautiful part of Greece last year. Haven’t built anything yet but going by land prices at present, it has increased in value by about 20%.
    I’m happy, so are the goats, and best of all it’s maintenance free (goat poo is biodegradable….).
    The stock market is too scary for me, think I’ll buy another goat field. 😀

    Charlie that report is worth reading especially if you are investing or speculating in property.

    We find that real house prices are pro-cyclical and tend to reach a maximum near business cycle peaks, often after a prolonged period of buoyant growth in activity has raised output above its potential level and inflation pressures have begun to emerge. Subsequently, real house prices fall for about five years and their previous run-up is largely reversed. Real GDP growth slows during the first year or so after house prices peak as do growth rates of private consumption and investment.

    House price booms are typically preceded by a period of easing monetary policy with rates bottoming out about three years before house prices peak. Rates then reverse quickly (after the peak) in response to falling GDP growth

    We have reached the top of this global business cycle. Liquidity (the supply of money) is now being wrung from the system.

  • #69921
    Profile photo of Paul
    Paul
    Participant

    My 2p’s worth Glassman.

    Property prices on the Costas is overvalued we’re reliably informed (Bank of Spain, Caixa Bank and many other informed publications) by as much as 30%.

    Some rogue agents we know, whack on commissions up to 30% to their valuations. Add on up to 11% completion costs, Bank charges for converting sterling and transfers, loss of interest on stage payments and waiting for late completions, extra charges for community funds, service charges etc, furnishings (which you never recover costs of buying), legals re selling etc etc etc (could go on), result:

    Property in negative equity or unable to profit on for many years in Spain, maybe 10 years is realistic in some areas.

    However those same rogue agents and lawyers are the only ones making any money on these properties.

    My opinion only, no intention to ‘shatter any glass’,.

  • #69922
    Profile photo of Inez
    Inez
    Participant

    Yes al the threads are rather heavy reading but my comment – and this borne from direct experience with regards to negativy equity (UK 80-90’s)

    UK bounced back as places like Madrid, Barcelona and other industrial towns will. The industry keeps the town alive, people in employment and there for finacially sound to buy.

    the Costas have none of this. There is no real NEED to live here except for the lifestyle. Under Thacher the service indurstry in the UK built up and was encouraged, under the recession these services went into decline. The same is happening here on teh Costa. People cant afford to pay mortgages when they are not doing well with renatsl, cleaning, selling and all the opther services dependant on the visitors and buyers. I know as I am involved in all these services and see the true picture.

    People will and are still buying here, but these are peol;e either with extra funds for a holiday home OR are still living and renting here but finding themselves in a position to buy PROVIDING they can secure 100% funding of purchase and purchases costs.

    Despite the hot air out there, no one is doing well and any agency not looking at other markets will be in big trouble in a few months time.

    Yes they are overpirced – I am finding even well priced stuff isnt shifting and the underpinning of all the house buying THE SPANISH are also reticent in buying, partly due to interest rate rises, partly due to the illegality issue but also due to interest rate rises.

    The spanish are huge borrowers and it will all end in tears.

    This ‘cycle’ cannot be fortold as the circumstances surrounding the costa is not like in any other city or town!

  • #69923
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    Anonymous
    Participant

    @inez wrote:

    Despite the hot air out there, no one is doing well and any agency not looking at other markets will be in big trouble in a few months time.

    I agree partially. CDS is rather quiet -but not dead as sales and purchases are done every day here- compared to three years ago which was frantic.

    But other areas in Spain such as Cádiz and Murcia are still hot and foreign clients are purchasing nicely (obviously the prices there are much lower due to lack of infrastructure).

    Katy: I remember her case. She was a bit naive just letting the property sit there for over 20 years and not checking on it or paying someone to look after it on her behalf. It was the Hotel who stole it from under her nose. They had also the adjacent plots of land to hers.

    In Spain a vacant plot can be “occupied” and if the owners don’t say anything (challenge you) after a certain deadline the property ends up being yours.

  • #69924
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    Inez, as I mentioned, many never experienced the 80/90’s slump or put it out of their mind and “live for today”.
    I would not say tha “UK bounced back”, as it took many years to recover, despite having the manufacturing base that the Costas doesn’t.
    Holiday homes are like restaurants and hair salons. When living costs go up, due to inflation, interest rates, or whatever, they are the first to see a drop off in trade as they are luxuries.
    Yes places like Madrid, Barcelona and other industrial towns will always bounce back and at a far quicker pace that the Costas, for the reasons you mention.
    In the residential market, be it for residency or holiday, far safer to buy near a large town or city than a resort, where if you wish to sell, you are reliant on somebody wanting a holiday home as opposed to a home to live.
    When manufacturing is in decline, or no existing, what is there to service?

    What percentage of purchaser, from your experience, have the funds to purchase without borrowing, as within the last week, people with liquid assets of £100,000 were reportedly just 6% of the population.
    There surely be a time when the banks call a temporary halt on funding holiday home purchasers in the likes of the Costas, due to all the uncertainties regarding illegal builds, fall off in rentals, etc.,?

    The hot air out there with agents, does nothing to help the confidence of the purchaser and before long, GOOD agents will suffer as they will be tarred with the same brush.

  • #69925
    Profile photo of Inez
    Inez
    Participant

    Hi Drakan – yes there are still buyers. I sold 2 last week, although I ONLY class a sale as a sale after notary and I have got paid. The phones are noticably quieter but the quality of client has improved.

    With regards to cash liquidity, well they are out there but for inheritance tax reasons and other reasons they are all advised to take out a mortgage so quite hard to guage in total.

    Some millionaires are as you know only paper ones. Liquidate their assets and pay off the loans would leave them bankrupt!

    And dont forget in SPain al lot of cash is still under the mattress so yet again the stats are not a true reflection.

    In my experience, far more Spanish buy with substantial sums of cash than Irish or UK but again this is an accountancy reason.

    The confidence has been damaged far more by the illegal scandals than the bad agents – as MRI can testify to, they are selling by the bucketload!

    I make no bones about CDS will bounce back stronger than ever but I believe it will be a cuple of years for the dust to settle before buyers will have confidence to buy here. Its still the best place to be with everything anyone wants and to live here for me is a privilege that even after 12 years and all the hassle I have been through, I still wake every morning mightily happy with myself and my lot.

  • #69926
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    The “liquid assets of £100,000” had to be truly liquid and not tied to investments such as property. I think they would class Stocks and Shares, bur primarily deposit accounts.

  • #69927
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    Hmm I think the affluent are always watching the real estate market closely ready to grab property at a discount and diversify assets, but that will likely happen in a couple of years time from now. Now it’s like catching a falling knife. There’s huge liquidity waiting and yes there’s quite a lot of paper millionaires who are going to get caught.

    CDS will bounce back with capital growth of over 2 digits p.a. in the future. It’s all cyclical. The million dollar question is when will this be.

    Location, location, location. CDS will always beat other more risky ones (Morroco, Turkey, Bulgaria etc…) in despite of living now one of it’s worst moments. Even people who have bought overpriced if they manage to hold on over the next years they will eventually break even and make a profit in time for the next cycle. Obviously they have neglected the Opportunity Cost.

    Whereas those who bought or are buying in “hotspots” (what on earth does that fancy word mean ?) such as Bulgaria will get their fingers badly burnt IMHO.

    The key is getting in at the right moment and that takes a great deal of research (and patience) and market insight as MG points out and is not information that is easily shared by savvy investors.

  • #69930
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    OK, so let’s widen the property market to include commercial. Has the commercial market suffered as much as the residential?
    What sort of yeilds are commercial properties changing hands for.
    I can only assume that on the Costas, the knock-on has bound to have had affect?

  • #69931
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    Paul
    No problem as I break glass everyday
    Some say the market is overvalued by 30% ????????
    I just completed on an apartment purchased for 300.000 euros and say 330,000 inc fees etc internal 135m2 ,total built 196 m2 excluding parking I have up until now only had 30% invested i.e. my deposit.

    Now I take an interest only mortgage for 3 years and have rentals which will pay towards the payments, I also have a great place for holidays but if I were to sell today I would be happy with 365,000 euros, however I am going to stick for now (probably no choice anyway)
    Now there is an apartment in the next block that wants 445.000 euros for the same property< so what is over valued by 30 % (get my drift)

    Now as the market has hit problems I either do what I am doing or as m.g says I treat it as a 5 year investment(which everyone should have been prepared to do) or loose money by dumping it.
    The real losers in the investment game are those that were in it for the short term gain and they took the chance many with no finances to complete and they all played a part in the game and lost,(some went for multiple purchases and really not a lot different views to some of the developers ie GREED)
    The poor souls that got caught up in this mess we all have sympathy for but reality is that the problem for them is not going away and it just may be helpful if they can see how some have chose to deal with the situation.(How many of these didn’t think that this will be a lovely holiday home and didn’t take on board that they would make some money as well) BE HONEST?

    As Drakan states, it will be back for the next cycle and the future problems may be in countries that he pointed to ( the question is when, reality no one really knows and can only put forward their opinion much like the Investment managers in the stock market

    SAFTEY IN THE GOOD OLD U>K
    “Can someone in this fine country with morals tell me what happened with the pension fiasco when many lost everything?(who were the sharks and conmen here)
    “Can some in this fine country tell me what happened to the endowment scandal?
    “Can someone in fine country tell me that if the domestic property bubble bursts if interest rates climb again young couples could loose the lot due to negative equity?
    Read the news, this country has nothing to brag about, almost everything revolves around religion and greed.much the same as the rest of the world
    CONMEN<SHARKS DONT JUST BLAME SPAIN

    As Inez states he wakes up in the COSTA DEL SOL every morning happy with his lot and so do 100s of thousands of others

    Maybe down for a while but all the reasons that everyone bought, including investors or those purchasing a holiday home are still there i.e it’s a great part of the world.

    THE END

  • #69933
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    @glassman wrote:

    Paul
    No problem as I break glass everyday
    Some say the market is overvalued by 30% ????????
    I just completed on an apartment purchased for 300.000 euros and say 330,000 inc fees etc internal 135m2 ,total built 196 m2 excluding parking I have up until now only had 30% invested i.e. my deposit.

    Now I take an interest only mortgage for 3 years and have rentals which will pay towards the payments, I also have a great place for holidays but if I were to sell today I would be happy with 365,000 euros, however I am going to stick for now (probably no choice anyway)
    Now there is an apartment in the next block that wants 445.000 euros for the same property< so what is over valued by 30 % (get my drift)

    Now as the market has hit problems I either do what I am doing or as m.g says I treat it as a 5 year investment(which everyone should have been prepared to do) or loose money by dumping it.
    The real losers in the investment game are those that were in it for the short term gain and they took the chance many with no finances to complete and they all played a part in the game and lost,(some went for multiple purchases and really not a lot different views to some of the developers ie GREED)
    The poor souls that got caught up in this mess we all have sympathy for but reality is that the problem for them is not going away and it just may be helpful if they can see how some have chose to deal with the situation.(How many of these didn’t think that this will be a lovely holiday home and didn’t take on board that they would make some money as well) BE HONEST?

    As Drakan states, it will be back for the next cycle and the future problems may be in countries that he pointed to ( the question is when, reality no one really knows and can only put forward their opinion much like the Investment managers in the stock market

    SAFTEY IN THE GOOD OLD U>K
    “Can someone in this fine country with morals tell me what happened with the pension fiasco when many lost everything?(who were the sharks and conmen here)
    “Can some in this fine country tell me what happened to the endowment scandal?
    “Can someone in fine country tell me that if the domestic property bubble bursts if interest rates climb again young couples could loose the lot due to negative equity?
    Read the news, this country has nothing to brag about, almost everything revolves around religion and greed.much the same as the rest of the world
    CONMEN<SHARKS DONT JUST BLAME SPAIN

    As Inez states he wakes up in the COSTA DEL SOL every morning happy with his lot and so do 100s of thousands of others

    Maybe down for a while but all the reasons that everyone bought, including investors or those purchasing a holiday home are still there i.e it’s a great part of the world.

    THE END

    Well I was quite in agreement with the post until you started listing all the problems with the UK. I can’t disagree with your listing of these problems except for one thing. It may take a long time and a lot of blood sweat and tears, but usually the law comes down on the side of the wronged individual, much to the embarrassment of the Govt of the day and/or big business. Yes endowments were miss sold, but there is compo available for wronged individuals. The Govt has just lost a high court case for pension compo. In the UK the ultimate safeguard (flawed may be) is that lenders do not want to lose money on a property. Yes they may offer stupid multiples of salary, but the valuations are realistic and independent. In the UK BTL market, it is virtually impossible to achieve 100% leverage of a property purchase unless you decide to borrow your deposit (not a good idea). You are restricted to 85% LTV or some calculation based on forecast rentals in terms of how much you can borrow.

    In the UK you may get sucked into the hype and conned over property. But then some bstard valuer comes along and rains on your parade, but also brings you down to reality. Does this happen in Spain? I don’t know but somehow I doubt it.

    Property investment is all about detailed research and investigation and hard work. However, in the UK if you want to be a moopet then at least there are some checks and balances and legal recourse.

    Kevin

  • #69934
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    Hi Kevin
    Not intended as detailed issues regarding the U.K sorry if it came across that way
    The fact is that no country is perfect as some feel the U.K is.
    Some lenders do lend more tha 85% loan to value and some lenders do stupid multiple of earnings and sell the insurance to cover thats full of holes
    You have the main markets where there is some re-course and you have places like Spain which are being dragged along behind.
    At least they have some sort of legal system and while it clearly needs improving perhaps that will come in time (hopefully)
    I wouldnt mind a bet that when the Spanish go to say Bulgaria they say the same that legal system there as being no where near as good as they have in Spain
    Regards to you

  • #69936
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    @glassman wrote:

    Hi Kevin
    Not intended as detailed issues regarding the U.K sorry if it came across that way
    The fact is that no country is perfect as some feel the U.K is.
    Some lenders do lend more tha 85% loan to value and some lenders do stupid multiple of earnings and sell the insurance to cover thats full of holes
    You have the main markets where there is some re-course and you have places like Spain which are being dragged along behind.
    At least they have some sort of legal system and while it clearly needs improving perhaps that will come in time (hopefully)
    I wouldnt mind a bet that when the Spanish go to say Bulgaria they say the same that legal system there as being no where near as good as they have in Spain
    Regards to you

    Hi Glassman

    You are more than probably right over Bulgaria (or Morocco, or Turkey, or Cape Verde or Rumania or the next big thing). At the end of it all. I know and trust the systems in UK, and don’t abroad.

    Each to their own
    Kevin

  • #69938
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    @Drakan wrote:

    Katy: I remember her case. She was a bit naive just letting the property sit there for over 20 years and not checking on it or paying someone to look after it on her behalf. It was the Hotel who stole it from under her nose. They had also the adjacent plots of land to hers.

    In Spain a vacant plot can be “occupied” and if the owners don’t say anything (challenge you) after a certain deadline the property ends up being yours.

    This is also the same in the UK.

    You can fence in an area of land and if this is not challenged for 7 years, you can legitimatly claim ownership.

    @mg wrote:

    What sort of yeilds are commercial properties changing hands for.
    I can only assume that on the Costas, the knock-on has bound to have had affect?

    That’s a nasty slur on my good name, sir, and I demand you retract it 😆 😆 😆 (Probably right though 😉 )

  • #69941
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    Hi Kevin
    Back to the shares and if you have a balanced portfolio then everone does.
    Not eveyone goes for the stock market,some dont go for property at all.
    As you say we all have to make our own minds up as to the risks we take.
    Cheers

  • #69945
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    Hi everyone

    without wishing to pour fuel on the fire (but I probably will) I still think Spain is a great place to invest – now more than ever because so many people wanting to sell means you can get a real bargain. A year ago every 50th property I saw would fall into the category of bargain and undervalued. Now I would say it is closer to 1 in 10.

    However with caveats already mentioned here

    1. Dont invest in Spàin unless you know what you are doing
    2. Dont do it if you cannot speak Spanish or have someone you can trust that does
    3. Dont do it without having seen at least 100 properties (time consuming yes but worth it in the end)
    4. Dont do it for short term gains
    5. Dont buy off plan unless you have researched thoroughly the area, the builder, that licences are in place etc and dont do it for short term gains
    6. Dont ever buy in Spain without a good lawyer and preferably one not even in the area you are buying (nepotism reigns supreme here)

    When to do it

    1. You want and can afford a second home in the Sun
    2. You have the finances to pay for it and hold on for at least five years
    3. You have researched your area thoroughly
    4. Ideally buy in a city/town that is a year round place (not a holiday destination)
    5. Put in a ridiculously low offer. If it isnt accepted walk away and move on to the next
    6. Always buy a property that will sell (at the right price) therefore do not overpay. What happens if you need to sell it quickly – buy it at the right price and leave yourself some equity for such situations and you will be able to sell at a lower price later and still come out winning
    7. DO NOT EVER get emotionally involved in a property purchase for investment – emotions lose you money.

    Remember the art of selling is in the buymg. The more you pay now the less profit you will ultimately make

    Spain is a great place to invest – if you live here and can manage it. If you dont and are not considering a holiday home purchase then keep to the UK – or wherever you are based. It will be a lot less hassle.

    Good luck and I hope the fire isnt out of control

    Vince

  • #69951
    Profile photo of Paul
    Paul
    Participant

    Glassman you appear to have it all sewn up, so you are very fortunate.

    However many people are stuck in negative equity in Spain due to factors I’ve previously mentioned, and it’s going to be an awful long time for them to break even, and I’m not talking about investors only here.

    Some greedy agents have conned them into buying overpriced property and all the added completion costs mean they are stuck with it, they haven’t only put down 30% as you have.

  • #69955
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    Talking to a long established agent on Mijas Costa today he says the market is the worst he’s known on the coast in over 20 years

  • #69956
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    Paul
    I just had to deal the best I could with the situation and perhaps in some way it may help some to deal with theirs.
    The problem is Paul that its no good going over what has happened as its history and everyone has to deal with the situation.
    Yep 30% down and a bloody big mortgage or loose alot of money?
    Simple choice worry myself sick or make the best I could out of the situation,same as everyone else.
    20 years ago,taken for 200K when a very large devolper went bust on me and lost everything and it was no good feeling sorry for myself as just had to start rebuilding 20 years of my business life.
    In every country negative equity has perhaps been a problem that time
    sorts out.
    Vince
    I have my share of money being returned by the developer on another
    development La Reserva de Marbella that went wrong (good solicitor you see)
    As soon as I have that money I am going for another and thats 100% fact
    because as you say the golden rule is.
    Its not what you sell for,its what you buy for.

    PJA Well all the more reason to buy (never buy on a high if you can avoid it)

  • #69968
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    As a indicator of what happens to markets that witness prolonged periods of speculation its worth looking at the Florida market. It is similar to the Spanish Costa’s market in many ways; essentially a holiday market, many overseas buyers, rampant development etc.

    http://observer.guardian.co.uk/cash/story/0,,2030972,00.html

  • #69972
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    Oscar Martinez, president of the professional real estate association predicts that 3000 EA’s in the province of Malaga will go bust over the next few months.

    http://www.typicallyspanish.com/news/publish/a … 9365.shtml

  • #69996
    Profile photo of angie
    angie
    Spectator

    Dorothy, 3000 agents in Malaga Province alone might go bust? If that’s so then it shows what a lucrative business it must have been for years. Personally I hope that includes Awful Estates who apparently are being bought out according to http://www.eyeonspain.com under forum page Spanish Estate Agents ‘Warning I do not recommend Ocean Estates’

    If as said, one of their owners is lawyer Pablo Anderson then that is a direct conflict of interests since he is also one of their recommended lawyers. Maybe the AIPP should look into that as Ocean are one of their members.

  • #70006
    Profile photo of katy
    katy
    Spectator

    Some of the agents who “claim” to have been bought out or sold have just merged a little more into the background and are still in control.

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