Marbella property market recovery?

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This topic contains 72 replies, has 14 voices, and was last updated by Profile photo of Anonymous Anonymous 4 years, 12 months ago.

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  • #56386
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    We don’t talk about Marbella much these days, but recently I’ve heard from quite a few different sources that the property market there is on the mend, after about 8 years on the decline, it has to be said.

    Some say Marbella is a bellwether for the Spanish holiday home market. It tanks first, and recovers first.

    Anyone got an opinion on this?

  • #106126
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    I would not go as far as being a bellwether for the Spanish market. I would however say that it for the CDS. To me Marbella is the Knightsbridge it either does not get affected or as you said ” tanks first & recover first.

  • #105926
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    I would not go as far as being a bellwether for the Spanish market. I would however say that it for the CDS. To me Marbella is the Knightsbridge it either does not get affected or as you said ” tanks first & recover first.

  • #106128
    Profile photo of katy
    katy
    Spectator

    Not according to my sources although the property agents will (naturally πŸ™„ ) say different. I do think when recovery happens (in about 10 years) marbella will probably be the first to recover, it was last time.

  • #105928
    Profile photo of katy
    katy
    Spectator

    Not according to my sources although the property agents will (naturally πŸ™„ ) say different. I do think when recovery happens (in about 10 years) marbella will probably be the first to recover, it was last time.

  • #106130
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    well, I don’t know if it’s on the mend yet; but I have four friends in La Zagaleta who’ve sold in the last six months; another after five years languishing on the market now has three novios “interested buyers” making offers. It must be said that these sales were concluded at 50% of initial asking prices; ie down from approx €8,000,000 to E4,000,000.FYI, around thirty houses in LZ have sold in the last 24 months.

    In central areas agents are busy showing bargains to prospective buyers. From what I hear the first six months were quite good but since July nothing much is going on apart from the odd sale.

    The town hall is working like crazy cleaning the place up and I believe when a few green shoots appear in the world economy Marbella will fly!!!!!!!!there is a huge amount of money sitting on the sidelines waiting for the green lights!!!!!!!!!!! 😐 😐 😐

  • #105930
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    well, I don’t know if it’s on the mend yet; but I have four friends in La Zagaleta who’ve sold in the last six months; another after five years languishing on the market now has three novios “interested buyers” making offers. It must be said that these sales were concluded at 50% of initial asking prices; ie down from approx €8,000,000 to E4,000,000.FYI, around thirty houses in LZ have sold in the last 24 months.

    In central areas agents are busy showing bargains to prospective buyers. From what I hear the first six months were quite good but since July nothing much is going on apart from the odd sale.

    The town hall is working like crazy cleaning the place up and I believe when a few green shoots appear in the world economy Marbella will fly!!!!!!!!there is a huge amount of money sitting on the sidelines waiting for the green lights!!!!!!!!!!! 😐 😐 😐

  • #106132
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    La Zagaleta is not the barometer for the CDS property market.

  • #105932
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    La Zagaleta is not the barometer for the CDS property market.

  • #106133
    Profile photo of Fuengi (Andrew)
    Fuengi (Andrew)
    Participant

    well if we look at the informaiton, in first half of this years there were 50 fewer property sales (free dwellings) in marbella compared to the first 6 months of last year.

    and if you go back to the 2004/05/06 figures sales are down approximately 50%.

  • #105933
    Profile photo of Fuengi (Andrew)
    Fuengi (Andrew)
    Participant

    well if we look at the informaiton, in first half of this years there were 50 fewer property sales (free dwellings) in marbella compared to the first 6 months of last year.

    and if you go back to the 2004/05/06 figures sales are down approximately 50%.

  • #106141
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    50% of numbers in the mid 2000’s is frankly incredibly good (if your figure is correct Fuengi); and this is in the middle of a dire recession; imagine when “green shoots start to appear”. Let’s not forget that 50% of sales in the mid 2000’s were idiots buying two or three units thinking they could flip them……. so maybe real sales figures (ie real end users) are not down that much.

    regarding figures for last year (2010) many of the sales completed in the first six months were off plan purchases effected in 2007/8 etc …. so maybe, REAL sales for 2011 are actually UP πŸ˜‰ πŸ˜‰ πŸ˜‰

    of course blood and tears are still everywhere with businesses closing every week, and many more still to go as we stare into the abyss – Spain will emerge as a favourite again – ΒΏwho wants to buy in North Africa, Sicily, Turkey, Egypt, Croatia, Bulgaria, Cape verde???????? nobody!! πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜†

  • #105941
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    50% of numbers in the mid 2000’s is frankly incredibly good (if your figure is correct Fuengi); and this is in the middle of a dire recession; imagine when “green shoots start to appear”. Let’s not forget that 50% of sales in the mid 2000’s were idiots buying two or three units thinking they could flip them……. so maybe real sales figures (ie real end users) are not down that much.

    regarding figures for last year (2010) many of the sales completed in the first six months were off plan purchases effected in 2007/8 etc …. so maybe, REAL sales for 2011 are actually UP πŸ˜‰ πŸ˜‰ πŸ˜‰

    of course blood and tears are still everywhere with businesses closing every week, and many more still to go as we stare into the abyss – Spain will emerge as a favourite again – ΒΏwho wants to buy in North Africa, Sicily, Turkey, Egypt, Croatia, Bulgaria, Cape verde???????? nobody!! πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜†

  • #106142
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    There are many thousands who have bought in North Africa, Sicily, Turkey, Croatia, Bulgaria, Cape Verde. You are speaking like a closed minded Spanish member of the tourism/building related sector who thinks sun only in Spain and whole population of the planet will come to live in Spain, hence millions of properties built all over spain.

  • #105942
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    There are many thousands who have bought in North Africa, Sicily, Turkey, Croatia, Bulgaria, Cape Verde. You are speaking like a closed minded Spanish member of the tourism/building related sector who thinks sun only in Spain and whole population of the planet will come to live in Spain, hence millions of properties built all over spain.

  • #106143
    Profile photo of Chris McCarthy
    Chris McCarthy
    Participant

    Sales in Marbella for us are up on last year guys, and significantly so, but Ubeda is right many businesses and agents included have continued to go to the wall.

    This time last year we thought we were in a great position, two years past the credit crisis and we thought give it one more year to make three years beyond and the worst would have to be over. Seems we were wrong again…

    The BOE statements on the general economy in UK, the QE2 injection have all told us that actually the worst is maybe yet to come, and of course the ongoing saga in relation to the Euro creates continued uncertainty all around.

    That is why a lot of businesses have continued to go under, a lot of people have not been able to adapt or tough it out long enough. And or crucially, perhaps they haven’t shown an ounce of faith or a cent to invest and diversify through these times.

    But… We do have people buying and in good numbers, but then we really seek to work for private vendors who are often in a better position to – price right – than the banks with their repossessed stock and the developer stock. There truly is property available at prices today that frankly leave me stunned they would come back to the market at such low levels.

    For buyers at some point it has to be the time to buy, and obviously a number of people think for them it is now.

    Are they right? Who knows?

    Ubeda is right that there is a huge interest awaiting in the wings, it is vast and it is as if all it requires is for someone with authority and officially to say – the worst is certainly over, and in will come the interest.

    Vendors are waiting for the same thing. Myself am not sure it is such a good thing. It is almost as if people believe that the bottom of the market announcement will be an instant springboard to a boom of activity, and it may, but that is when I think we will see a huge influx of private vendors looking again to sell but at increasing prices and buyers possibly not wanting to miss the boat / bounce / whatever and making poor decisions.

    I have great sympathy with people selling today, but I understand that anyone who does has their own reasons to do so. I think they are in market when priced right that actually gives them a chance to sell, anybody waiting might have too much competition.

    I think buyers who buy now, understand we are at the bottom of the market or as near as makes no difference and know what a great buy is when they see it. And despite this whole massive weight of negativity about markets, currencies, unemployment, recession, the wheel turns and it all comes about.

    Our business is significantly up on last year. We may struggle to make a profit at the end of the year having said that because we are investing substantially for the future.

    But, Marbella, and the wider Costa del Sol, for a thousand different reasons will lead the way out yes – and it is already doing so. However, it definitely isn’t what I would call easy!

  • #105943
    Profile photo of Chris McCarthy
    Chris McCarthy
    Participant

    Sales in Marbella for us are up on last year guys, and significantly so, but Ubeda is right many businesses and agents included have continued to go to the wall.

    This time last year we thought we were in a great position, two years past the credit crisis and we thought give it one more year to make three years beyond and the worst would have to be over. Seems we were wrong again…

    The BOE statements on the general economy in UK, the QE2 injection have all told us that actually the worst is maybe yet to come, and of course the ongoing saga in relation to the Euro creates continued uncertainty all around.

    That is why a lot of businesses have continued to go under, a lot of people have not been able to adapt or tough it out long enough. And or crucially, perhaps they haven’t shown an ounce of faith or a cent to invest and diversify through these times.

    But… We do have people buying and in good numbers, but then we really seek to work for private vendors who are often in a better position to – price right – than the banks with their repossessed stock and the developer stock. There truly is property available at prices today that frankly leave me stunned they would come back to the market at such low levels.

    For buyers at some point it has to be the time to buy, and obviously a number of people think for them it is now.

    Are they right? Who knows?

    Ubeda is right that there is a huge interest awaiting in the wings, it is vast and it is as if all it requires is for someone with authority and officially to say – the worst is certainly over, and in will come the interest.

    Vendors are waiting for the same thing. Myself am not sure it is such a good thing. It is almost as if people believe that the bottom of the market announcement will be an instant springboard to a boom of activity, and it may, but that is when I think we will see a huge influx of private vendors looking again to sell but at increasing prices and buyers possibly not wanting to miss the boat / bounce / whatever and making poor decisions.

    I have great sympathy with people selling today, but I understand that anyone who does has their own reasons to do so. I think they are in market when priced right that actually gives them a chance to sell, anybody waiting might have too much competition.

    I think buyers who buy now, understand we are at the bottom of the market or as near as makes no difference and know what a great buy is when they see it. And despite this whole massive weight of negativity about markets, currencies, unemployment, recession, the wheel turns and it all comes about.

    Our business is significantly up on last year. We may struggle to make a profit at the end of the year having said that because we are investing substantially for the future.

    But, Marbella, and the wider Costa del Sol, for a thousand different reasons will lead the way out yes – and it is already doing so. However, it definitely isn’t what I would call easy!

  • #106148
    Profile photo of peterhun
    peterhun
    Participant

    Chris, I think sign of the bottom of the market is when prices stop falling. At present the rate of fall is increasing, even when its stops prices are likely to stay low for a long time.

  • #105948
    Profile photo of peterhun
    peterhun
    Participant

    Chris, I think sign of the bottom of the market is when prices stop falling. At present the rate of fall is increasing, even when its stops prices are likely to stay low for a long time.

  • #106152
    Profile photo of Mexberry
    Mexberry
    Participant

    I am one of those patiently waiting in the wings to observe what will happen in the elections and the effect that will have on the value of the euro, before taking the Costa del Sol property plunge. Hopefully (from my viewpoint) the euro declines in value so my purchase with Canadian dollars goes a lot further. There is sufficient housing stock begging to be bought that waiting a few months will not effect supply. I am sure that there are many others with a similar viewpoint.

  • #105952
    Profile photo of Mexberry
    Mexberry
    Participant

    I am one of those patiently waiting in the wings to observe what will happen in the elections and the effect that will have on the value of the euro, before taking the Costa del Sol property plunge. Hopefully (from my viewpoint) the euro declines in value so my purchase with Canadian dollars goes a lot further. There is sufficient housing stock begging to be bought that waiting a few months will not effect supply. I am sure that there are many others with a similar viewpoint.

  • #106155
    Profile photo of Chris McCarthy
    Chris McCarthy
    Participant

    @peterhun wrote:

    Chris, I think sign of the bottom of the market is when prices stop falling. At present the rate of fall is increasing, even when its stops prices are likely to stay low for a long time.

    I entirely agree with the first point when prices stop falling.

    The second point – rate of fall increasing – this statement depends on a number of variables, I simply wonder which set of stats you can rely upon to tell you the rate is still falling. By this I mean, if you waiting on official stats, well there is likely to be a time lag of anything from 6 – 12 months before the real situation filters through, and you will be a year beyond the bottom in reality.

    Also of course, if Marbella and the CDS as usual is ahead of the curve, their individual improved stats will be lost in the overall negative picture.

    Unfortunately the only person likely to be able to tell you the true position on a given day – heaven help us I know – but its me, right there at the front line day to day.

    As to the third point, I entirely want to agree, I pray that prices stay low for a long time, I don’t want a gold rush, I don’t want booming prices, just a nice, steady, gradual increase in prices and stability would be perfect for me.

    Somehow I think other factors may come into play however, I think there is MASSIVE pent up interest in owning a home in Spain, people have always wanted to buy here, in the past 5 years they have been held back but their interest has not gone away, I think Vendors have universally had to face lowering their prices to levels that ensure a sale so they can move on, and INFLATION is around the corner and bricks and mortar will be seen as a safe haven as opposed to cash or other investments and well… two to three years from now, the price of property here could be back where it was 5 years ago.

    The result then will look very positive for anyone who bought today, pre the official announcement of ‘market bottom’.

    But it is swings and roundabouts in the end. The fact is, despite and against all the odds, yes there is a Marbella property recovery and it is significant.

  • #105955
    Profile photo of Chris McCarthy
    Chris McCarthy
    Participant

    @peterhun wrote:

    Chris, I think sign of the bottom of the market is when prices stop falling. At present the rate of fall is increasing, even when its stops prices are likely to stay low for a long time.

    I entirely agree with the first point when prices stop falling.

    The second point – rate of fall increasing – this statement depends on a number of variables, I simply wonder which set of stats you can rely upon to tell you the rate is still falling. By this I mean, if you waiting on official stats, well there is likely to be a time lag of anything from 6 – 12 months before the real situation filters through, and you will be a year beyond the bottom in reality.

    Also of course, if Marbella and the CDS as usual is ahead of the curve, their individual improved stats will be lost in the overall negative picture.

    Unfortunately the only person likely to be able to tell you the true position on a given day – heaven help us I know – but its me, right there at the front line day to day.

    As to the third point, I entirely want to agree, I pray that prices stay low for a long time, I don’t want a gold rush, I don’t want booming prices, just a nice, steady, gradual increase in prices and stability would be perfect for me.

    Somehow I think other factors may come into play however, I think there is MASSIVE pent up interest in owning a home in Spain, people have always wanted to buy here, in the past 5 years they have been held back but their interest has not gone away, I think Vendors have universally had to face lowering their prices to levels that ensure a sale so they can move on, and INFLATION is around the corner and bricks and mortar will be seen as a safe haven as opposed to cash or other investments and well… two to three years from now, the price of property here could be back where it was 5 years ago.

    The result then will look very positive for anyone who bought today, pre the official announcement of ‘market bottom’.

    But it is swings and roundabouts in the end. The fact is, despite and against all the odds, yes there is a Marbella property recovery and it is significant.

  • #106156
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    @Chris McCarthy wrote:

    But it is swings and roundabouts in the end. The fact is, despite and against all the odds, yes there is a Marbella property recovery and it is significant.

    Significant recovery indeed:

    http://www.spanishpropertyinsight.com/buff/2011/10/17/spanish-property-market-shrinks-40pc-in-august/

    Or maybe people deferred their purchase in Madrid, Valencia and Barcelona to buy holiday apartments in Marbella… πŸ˜€

  • #105956
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    @Chris McCarthy wrote:

    But it is swings and roundabouts in the end. The fact is, despite and against all the odds, yes there is a Marbella property recovery and it is significant.

    Significant recovery indeed:

    http://www.spanishpropertyinsight.com/buff/2011/10/17/spanish-property-market-shrinks-40pc-in-august/

    Or maybe people deferred their purchase in Madrid, Valencia and Barcelona to buy holiday apartments in Marbella… πŸ˜€

  • #106157
    Profile photo of Chris McCarthy
    Chris McCarthy
    Participant

    @flosmichael wrote:

    Significant recovery indeed:
    http://www.spanishpropertyinsight.com/buff/2011/10/17/spanish-property-market-shrinks-40pc-in-august/
    Or maybe people deferred their purchase in Madrid, Valencia and Barcelona to buy holiday apartments in Marbella… πŸ˜€

    That I think just makes my point about official statistics Flosmichael, it depends on what you read, from where you read it, when it was produced or what it is referring to. Is it based upon national, local, targetted information and what is the validity of its source?

    As it happens August was certainly not a great month for us this year, but if you can believe me when I tell you that our performance against 2010 was up by 34% this year to date and if I gave you a chart would that help? Or would you simply think I am massaging the figures for my own benefit or self promotion. Even if I gave you a chart it most certainly might not be relevant, it could be that we are up 34% but then we have invested to be so and everyone else who has not done so is down 30%.

    It is then swings and roundabouts, but what does your gut tell you? Can it go much lower, if we are at a point where real vendors have dropped their prices – at point of sale by 40 -50% – not valuation, or listed on portals, do we think that by the time these real selling prices become official stats next year that this will have been the bottom for prices? Or does it still have more to drop?

    I am just offering our perspective – whether it is relevant or not is for you to decide, however, if you want to come take a look at the accounts at any time, just pop in and ask, we have nothing to lose and everything to gain by being entirely transparent.

    My figures are entirely accurate, wether they are relevant – well that’s another story.

  • #105957
    Profile photo of Chris McCarthy
    Chris McCarthy
    Participant

    @flosmichael wrote:

    Significant recovery indeed:
    http://www.spanishpropertyinsight.com/buff/2011/10/17/spanish-property-market-shrinks-40pc-in-august/
    Or maybe people deferred their purchase in Madrid, Valencia and Barcelona to buy holiday apartments in Marbella… πŸ˜€

    That I think just makes my point about official statistics Flosmichael, it depends on what you read, from where you read it, when it was produced or what it is referring to. Is it based upon national, local, targetted information and what is the validity of its source?

    As it happens August was certainly not a great month for us this year, but if you can believe me when I tell you that our performance against 2010 was up by 34% this year to date and if I gave you a chart would that help? Or would you simply think I am massaging the figures for my own benefit or self promotion. Even if I gave you a chart it most certainly might not be relevant, it could be that we are up 34% but then we have invested to be so and everyone else who has not done so is down 30%.

    It is then swings and roundabouts, but what does your gut tell you? Can it go much lower, if we are at a point where real vendors have dropped their prices – at point of sale by 40 -50% – not valuation, or listed on portals, do we think that by the time these real selling prices become official stats next year that this will have been the bottom for prices? Or does it still have more to drop?

    I am just offering our perspective – whether it is relevant or not is for you to decide, however, if you want to come take a look at the accounts at any time, just pop in and ask, we have nothing to lose and everything to gain by being entirely transparent.

    My figures are entirely accurate, wether they are relevant – well that’s another story.

  • #106160
    Profile photo of katy
    katy
    Spectator

    I think there is MASSIVE pent up interest in owning a home in Spain, people have always wanted to buy here.

    Probably true, sure the surveys will show that. Unfortunately most of them are dreamers who live in council estates or Β£100,000 semis.

  • #105960
    Profile photo of katy
    katy
    Spectator

    I think there is MASSIVE pent up interest in owning a home in Spain, people have always wanted to buy here.

    Probably true, sure the surveys will show that. Unfortunately most of them are dreamers who live in council estates or Β£100,000 semis.

  • #106162
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    “we have invested to be so and everyone else who has not done so is down 30%.”
    Can you please explain how you have invested and it what form that others have not done ????

  • #105962
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    “we have invested to be so and everyone else who has not done so is down 30%.”
    Can you please explain how you have invested and it what form that others have not done ????

  • #106165
    Profile photo of Chris McCarthy
    Chris McCarthy
    Participant

    @shakeel wrote:

    “we have invested to be so and everyone else who has not done so is down 30%.”
    Can you please explain how you have invested and it what form that others have not done ????

    Website – hugely changed at the minute but behind the scenes a whole new development site in progress to fullly launch hopefully next year would be one. It is certainly a six figure project.

    Outdoor Contact Programs – We have since the early part of the year had promotional teams out each evening with invitations, magazine and gifts (pretty fans) and other offers.

    Personnel, now over 45 staff and expanded office space.

    Support materials, two new cars, new language campaigns for Germany and the Scandi area about to go.

    We increased the last two issues of our magazine HOT Properties to 30,000 instead of 20,000 and extra 50% print run off our own bat because of demand.

    Oh jeeze Shakheel a ton of things that we do, that nobody else does, not at all. Don’t even come close, not even remotely close.

  • #105965
    Profile photo of Chris McCarthy
    Chris McCarthy
    Participant

    @shakeel wrote:

    “we have invested to be so and everyone else who has not done so is down 30%.”
    Can you please explain how you have invested and it what form that others have not done ????

    Website – hugely changed at the minute but behind the scenes a whole new development site in progress to fullly launch hopefully next year would be one. It is certainly a six figure project.

    Outdoor Contact Programs – We have since the early part of the year had promotional teams out each evening with invitations, magazine and gifts (pretty fans) and other offers.

    Personnel, now over 45 staff and expanded office space.

    Support materials, two new cars, new language campaigns for Germany and the Scandi area about to go.

    We increased the last two issues of our magazine HOT Properties to 30,000 instead of 20,000 and extra 50% print run off our own bat because of demand.

    Oh jeeze Shakheel a ton of things that we do, that nobody else does, not at all. Don’t even come close, not even remotely close.

  • #106167
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    Thanks. It was not my intention that you set bare your marketing strategy.

  • #105967
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    Thanks. It was not my intention that you set bare your marketing strategy.

  • #106168
    Profile photo of katy
    katy
    Spectator

    Chris I imagine your Hot properties must be a cash cow to keep the company afloat. I liked reading it, well presented. When we sold properties with VIVA our properties were in free. I believe now you charge at least a few hundred euro. A very good marketing strategy, sign them up to sell their house and charge for the ad. I know quite a few who have done and still not sold. To be effective the magazine should be available at major outlets in the UK and maybe other countries. I would prefer to advertise in the Sunday supplements.

  • #105968
    Profile photo of katy
    katy
    Spectator

    Chris I imagine your Hot properties must be a cash cow to keep the company afloat. I liked reading it, well presented. When we sold properties with VIVA our properties were in free. I believe now you charge at least a few hundred euro. A very good marketing strategy, sign them up to sell their house and charge for the ad. I know quite a few who have done and still not sold. To be effective the magazine should be available at major outlets in the UK and maybe other countries. I would prefer to advertise in the Sunday supplements.

  • #106171
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    Somehow I think other factors may come into play however, I think there is MASSIVE pent up interest in owning a home in Spain, people have always wanted to buy here, in the past 5 years they have been held back but their interest has not gone away, I think Vendors have universally had to face lowering their prices to levels that ensure a sale so they can move on, and INFLATION is around the corner and bricks and mortar will be seen as a safe haven as opposed to cash or other investments and well… two to three years from now, the price of property here could be back where it was 5 years ago.

    The result then will look very positive for anyone who bought today, pre the official announcement of ‘market bottom’.

    .[/quote]

    Do you really believe that 2 to 3 years will see it return to the peak if so please tell me the name of your dealer as that is some seriously good stuff your smoking πŸ˜†

  • #105971
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    Somehow I think other factors may come into play however, I think there is MASSIVE pent up interest in owning a home in Spain, people have always wanted to buy here, in the past 5 years they have been held back but their interest has not gone away, I think Vendors have universally had to face lowering their prices to levels that ensure a sale so they can move on, and INFLATION is around the corner and bricks and mortar will be seen as a safe haven as opposed to cash or other investments and well… two to three years from now, the price of property here could be back where it was 5 years ago.

    The result then will look very positive for anyone who bought today, pre the official announcement of ‘market bottom’.

    .[/quote]

    Do you really believe that 2 to 3 years will see it return to the peak if so please tell me the name of your dealer as that is some seriously good stuff your smoking πŸ˜†

  • #106173
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    @Chris McCarthy wrote:

    Somehow I think other factors may come into play however, I think there is MASSIVE pent up interest in owning a home in Spain, people have always wanted to buy here, in the past 5 years they have been held back but their interest has not gone away, .

    I think there are many more who are cursing the day they were sold on the idea of buying in Spain and they were either conned and lost their money or bought and the value of their “investment” is at low level.

    Why buy when the number of available apartments for rent is just enormous? Prices need to take a real fall in order to make sense to buy.
    Up to now there has only been a joke. 50% reduction out of what? Up-in-the sky prices?

    I love your dedication Chris, but prices will not return to 2006-2007 levels for a looong time. Except of course multi-million Euros prime property but I am not sure how many of those are you selling.

  • #105973
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    @Chris McCarthy wrote:

    Somehow I think other factors may come into play however, I think there is MASSIVE pent up interest in owning a home in Spain, people have always wanted to buy here, in the past 5 years they have been held back but their interest has not gone away, .

    I think there are many more who are cursing the day they were sold on the idea of buying in Spain and they were either conned and lost their money or bought and the value of their “investment” is at low level.

    Why buy when the number of available apartments for rent is just enormous? Prices need to take a real fall in order to make sense to buy.
    Up to now there has only been a joke. 50% reduction out of what? Up-in-the sky prices?

    I love your dedication Chris, but prices will not return to 2006-2007 levels for a looong time. Except of course multi-million Euros prime property but I am not sure how many of those are you selling.

  • #106178
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    location, location, location !!!!!!!! concentrate on that and you’ll find prices up to 2006 levels sooner than we think; ie 3 years time……… and forget about surveys etc; the only official one is TINSA and everyone knows that they are complete nonsense!!!!!!!!

  • #105978
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    location, location, location !!!!!!!! concentrate on that and you’ll find prices up to 2006 levels sooner than we think; ie 3 years time……… and forget about surveys etc; the only official one is TINSA and everyone knows that they are complete nonsense!!!!!!!!

  • #105987
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    @UBEDA wrote:

    location, location, location !!!!!!!! concentrate on that and you’ll find prices up to 2006 levels sooner than we think; ie 3 years time……… and forget about surveys etc; the only official one is TINSA and everyone knows that they are complete nonsense!!!!!!!!

    At least Chris has something relevant to say…

  • #106187
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    @UBEDA wrote:

    location, location, location !!!!!!!! concentrate on that and you’ll find prices up to 2006 levels sooner than we think; ie 3 years time……… and forget about surveys etc; the only official one is TINSA and everyone knows that they are complete nonsense!!!!!!!!

    At least Chris has something relevant to say…

  • #105991
    Profile photo of Chris McCarthy
    Chris McCarthy
    Participant

    @dartboy wrote:

    Do you really believe that 2 to 3 years will see it return to the peak if so please tell me the name of your dealer as that is some seriously good stuff your smoking πŸ˜†

    No I don’t actually believe it, but then I would never have believed that a perfectly lovely home that I sold 6 years ago would sell today for 50% less. And I don’t think anyone here would have believed that either.

    Who knows though… and we are talking about Marbella recovery, am not talking Spain, All the Costas etc, am just talking about Marbella and am just talking about certain elements within Marbella, and then yep… actually I think in 2-3 years certain units in certain locations will sell for the price that they sold for in what will then be a 9 year period.

    Back to swings and roundabouts, calling the bottom of the market, being in the right place (Marbella) at the right time and price. But like I said who really knows?

  • #106191
    Profile photo of Chris McCarthy
    Chris McCarthy
    Participant

    @dartboy wrote:

    Do you really believe that 2 to 3 years will see it return to the peak if so please tell me the name of your dealer as that is some seriously good stuff your smoking πŸ˜†

    No I don’t actually believe it, but then I would never have believed that a perfectly lovely home that I sold 6 years ago would sell today for 50% less. And I don’t think anyone here would have believed that either.

    Who knows though… and we are talking about Marbella recovery, am not talking Spain, All the Costas etc, am just talking about Marbella and am just talking about certain elements within Marbella, and then yep… actually I think in 2-3 years certain units in certain locations will sell for the price that they sold for in what will then be a 9 year period.

    Back to swings and roundabouts, calling the bottom of the market, being in the right place (Marbella) at the right time and price. But like I said who really knows?

  • #105992
    Profile photo of Chris McCarthy
    Chris McCarthy
    Participant

    @flosmichael wrote:

    At least Chris has something relevant to say…

    That has just about made my day, I am never sure whether I truly have a part to play on the forum, and it has just been a long and tiring day, am just off home and popped in for a five minute look around and well… that made my day – thank you!

  • #106192
    Profile photo of Chris McCarthy
    Chris McCarthy
    Participant

    @flosmichael wrote:

    At least Chris has something relevant to say…

    That has just about made my day, I am never sure whether I truly have a part to play on the forum, and it has just been a long and tiring day, am just off home and popped in for a five minute look around and well… that made my day – thank you!

  • #105993
    Profile photo of katy
    katy
    Spectator

    @Chris McCarthy wrote:

    @dartboy wrote:
    Do you really believe that 2 to 3 years will see it return to the peak if so please tell me the name of your dealer as that is some seriously good stuff your smoking πŸ˜†

    I don’t No I don’t actually believe it, but then I would never have believed that a perfectly lovely home that I sold 6 years ago would sell today for 50% less. And think anyone here would have believed that either.

    I believed it, perhaps not as low as 50% but anyone on the Costa could see it coming. Perhaps I was a little pessamistic starting to liquidate in 2002 but I am glad we did.

  • #106193
    Profile photo of katy
    katy
    Spectator

    @Chris McCarthy wrote:

    @dartboy wrote:
    Do you really believe that 2 to 3 years will see it return to the peak if so please tell me the name of your dealer as that is some seriously good stuff your smoking πŸ˜†

    I don’t No I don’t actually believe it, but then I would never have believed that a perfectly lovely home that I sold 6 years ago would sell today for 50% less. And think anyone here would have believed that either.

    I believed it, perhaps not as low as 50% but anyone on the Costa could see it coming. Perhaps I was a little pessamistic starting to liquidate in 2002 but I am glad we did.

  • #105997
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    @Chris McCarthy wrote:

    @dartboy wrote:
    Do you really believe that 2 to 3 years will see it return to the peak if so please tell me the name of your dealer as that is some seriously good stuff your smoking πŸ˜†

    No I don’t actually believe it, but then I would never have believed that a perfectly lovely home that I sold 6 years ago would sell today for 50% less. And I don’t think anyone here would have believed that either.

    If that the same house of 2005 also existed in 1996, it was probably at least 3 times more expensive in 2005 (at least 300% raise) than in 1996. A 300% rise followed by a 50% decrease still gives a 50% price increase in 15 years which is much more than the usual income increase.

    A further 20% decrease should not be surprising.

  • #106197
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    @Chris McCarthy wrote:

    @dartboy wrote:
    Do you really believe that 2 to 3 years will see it return to the peak if so please tell me the name of your dealer as that is some seriously good stuff your smoking πŸ˜†

    No I don’t actually believe it, but then I would never have believed that a perfectly lovely home that I sold 6 years ago would sell today for 50% less. And I don’t think anyone here would have believed that either.

    If that the same house of 2005 also existed in 1996, it was probably at least 3 times more expensive in 2005 (at least 300% raise) than in 1996. A 300% rise followed by a 50% decrease still gives a 50% price increase in 15 years which is much more than the usual income increase.

    A further 20% decrease should not be surprising.

  • #106010
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    well, as we “speak” Marbella is having a “boom” October. Restaurants, chiringuitos, bars are all packed with the tills ringing; shops in the port are enjoying an “unusually” busy October as well. (gold clubs apart from members only) are still empty; not surprising really after increasing the fees and spitting poison at the golfers for the last ten years!!………….the agents tell me (after busy first six months) that they are busy showing but everyone is now too scared to take the plunge; and when they do vendors don’t take the offers………….

    good areas will start to tick up – as i said before location, location, location!!!! well off people still have the money, they just don’t have the confidence at this moment!!!!! 8) 8) 8) 8) 8)

  • #106210
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    well, as we “speak” Marbella is having a “boom” October. Restaurants, chiringuitos, bars are all packed with the tills ringing; shops in the port are enjoying an “unusually” busy October as well. (gold clubs apart from members only) are still empty; not surprising really after increasing the fees and spitting poison at the golfers for the last ten years!!………….the agents tell me (after busy first six months) that they are busy showing but everyone is now too scared to take the plunge; and when they do vendors don’t take the offers………….

    good areas will start to tick up – as i said before location, location, location!!!! well off people still have the money, they just don’t have the confidence at this moment!!!!! 8) 8) 8) 8) 8)

  • #106855
    Profile photo of DBMarcos99
    DBMarcos99
    Participant

    @UBEDA wrote:

    well, as we “speak” Marbella is having a “boom” October. Restaurants, chiringuitos, bars are all packed with the tills ringing; shops in the port are enjoying an “unusually” busy October as well. (gold clubs apart from members only) are still empty; not surprising really after increasing the fees and spitting poison at the golfers for the last ten years!!………….the agents tell me (after busy first six months) that they are busy showing but everyone is now too scared to take the plunge; and when they do vendors don’t take the offers………….

    good areas will start to tick up – as i said before location, location, location!!!! well off people still have the money, they just don’t have the confidence at this moment!!!!! 8) 8) 8) 8) 8)

    I don’t know the area, but I noticed this news article today. Perhaps the rich are going to keep investing in their designated zones?

    http://www.theolivepress.es/spain-news/2011/12/02/hundred-million-euro-plan-to-expand-marbella-port-gets-go-ahead/

    A 109 million euro plan to expand Marbella’s fishing port has finally been given the green light.

    The long planned transformation of La Bajadilla into one of the most luxurious marinas on the Mediterranean can now take shape after the Junta de Andalucia, Marbella town hall and The Nasir Bin Abdullah & Sons Consortium signed a contract allowing construction to begin.

    The move comes just weeks after the Andalucian High Court overruled objections to the scheme – submitted by Sheikh Abdullah Al-Tani, a member of the Quatari Royal family and owner of Malaga CF – that it would cause irreversible damage to Marbella.

    Work will now being within six months and will see the port undergo intense renovation

  • #106858
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    What to do?

    We paid a deposit in 2002 on a three year build. By the time we completed in 2005 the predictions of a 30% profit had disappeared. We were going to sell before completion but we kept the apartment which we then learned in 2006 was illegal. This has now been sorted out.
    Our problem is in 2002 the apartment was sold to us for 199,000e.
    We have now started to pay the repayment mortgage even though we tried to get an extension of the interest only until we sold our UK property next year with the effect of paying off the Spanish mortgage and going to live in Spain until the property prices recovered.

    I am now becoming very worried if we do that and since the situation with the European Community is in such a mess that our planned time out of 2-3 years will see us selling at a price which will give us little choice of what we can buy in the UK to get us back or worse scenario not enough to get a decent place.

    We could try and sell the Spanish apartment now and have looked at three selling prices all very much below the selling price. We would then have 16 months to clear the outstanding mortgage on our UK property which in the long run will see its value recover much quickly than Spain.

    Is it better to shell out 2,000e in mortgage repayments or save the eqivelant in British pounds to clear our UK mortgage. I suppose what I am really asking is what hope has Spain
    in the market recovery. We do not have 10 years, we are near retirement, but have until 2013 to still have an income.

    I know none of us have a crystal ball, but I have followed this site for years and I can see there are experts who contribute. My daughter has been telling us for years to cut our losses and get out and is adamant we should hold on to the UK property.
    We never foresaw how bad things were going to get.

    Not that it matters but the apartment is end of bloque large terrace and garden overlooking the pool and gardens 15 minutes from Marbella.

    Any advice would be appreciated.

    Thank you.

  • #106859
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    Your daughter is right. You should not sell the your UK abode. Even if the market recovers in Marbella. God forbid that you had to return for personal reasons you will not be able to buy in most area’s in UK.

  • #106862
    Profile photo of peterhun
    peterhun
    Participant

    @shakeel wrote:

    Your daughter is right. You should not sell the your UK abode. Even if the market recovers in Marbella. God forbid that you had to return for personal reasons you will not be able to buy in most area’s in UK.

    I agree.

  • #106863
    Profile photo of angie
    angie
    Spectator

    holly, you say your property is 15 mins from Marbella but not where as this can make quite a difference when you try and sell.

    I’ve posted recently that we know someone who can’t resell his apartment even though it’s on Los Monterros an upmarket site near Marbella, maybe he could if he really reduced it though!

    IMO, if you can sell then with all this uncertainty going on, then I would try to get rid of it. You could also try swapping it maybe for a UK property, because believe it or not there are still 1000’s of Brits who for some reason despite the gloom still do not know how bad things are in Spain and they still harbour hopes of a life in the sun. Many of these Brits can’t sell their UK homes either and are willing to swap, and you’d be possibly better off taking their UK home. You could Google search home exchange or swap sites, if you’re lucky enough to swap then you wouldn’t pay the excessive commission costs in Spain either.

    It’s a conundrum for you, your daughter is right though. πŸ™„

  • #106871
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    Great article in today’s WEEKEND FT on Marbella – this is the first time in at least two years that they’ve dared to write up the area – Generally quite positive and will do us no harm whatsoever !!!!! ΒΏGreen shoots ??? πŸ˜€ πŸ˜€ πŸ˜€ πŸ˜€ πŸ˜€ πŸ˜€

  • #106873
    Profile photo of DBMarcos99
    DBMarcos99
    Participant

    @UBEDA wrote:

    Great article in today’s WEEKEND FT on Marbella – this is the first time in at least two years that they’ve dared to write up the area – Generally quite positive and will do us no harm whatsoever !!!!! ΒΏGreen shoots ??? πŸ˜€ πŸ˜€ πŸ˜€ πŸ˜€ πŸ˜€ πŸ˜€

    Yes, the article is here (you may have to register, free, to read it)

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/f21312aa-16a3-11e1-bc1d-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1fU1ecgxr

    It states Russians are becoming significant buyers. Seems the people predicting this, were correct after all !

    EDIT The article does mention various infrastructure projects going ahead, but they include the Malaga high speed link. I would have thought that was a long way off?

  • #106876
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    Thank you all your advice I think it is what I suspected and I just hope we can sell it to draw even, then to address UK costs.
    Very sad, we love being there and could see ourselves there for a few years until prices recovered enougth to buy something down south near our daughter, but this is not going to happen soon enough for us.

  • #106877
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    Holly, I can understand your sentiments. We all cant have want we want at differeent stages of our life. I wanted to win the Lottery last week & the week before & the week before the last week …….

  • #106881
    Profile photo of katy
    katy
    Spectator

    @dbmarcos99 wrote:

    @UBEDA wrote:
    Great article in today’s WEEKEND FT on Marbella – this is the first time in at least two years that they’ve dared to write up the area – Generally quite positive and will do us no harm whatsoever !!!!! ΒΏGreen shoots ??? πŸ˜€ πŸ˜€ πŸ˜€ πŸ˜€ πŸ˜€ πŸ˜€

    Yes, the article is here (you may have to register, free, to read it)

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/f21312aa-16a3-11e1-bc1d-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1fU1ecgxr

    It states Russians are becoming significant buyers. Seems the people predicting this, were correct after all !

    EDIT The article does mention various infrastructure projects going ahead, but they include the Malaga high speed link. I would have thought that was a long way off?

    It’s another churnalist advert…all their sources quoted are estate agents πŸ˜† Same ole, same ole. Would we want to be there anyway if it’s fullof Russian chavs. Seen enough of them in Banus. Uncouth, flash….
    Have been following the new Marina development, sounds interesting if it gets off the ground.

  • #106891
    Profile photo of angie
    angie
    Spectator

    So Russians and Chinese are taking over Marbella property, great, it won’t be long before their gangs start taking over and a lot more lap dancing clubs. There’s already turf wars between Eastern European, Irish, British and other Costa crims, and for these reasons ‘I won’t be investing’ πŸ˜‰ It reminds me of Tijuana on steroids, but with lots of bling and undesirables all dealing in cash, drugs and porn πŸ™„

  • #106893
    Profile photo of DBMarcos99
    DBMarcos99
    Participant

    @angie wrote:

    So Russians and Chinese are taking over Marbella property, great, it won’t be long before their gangs start taking over and a lot more lap dancing clubs. There’s already turf wars between Eastern European, Irish, British and other Costa crims, and for these reasons ‘I won’t be investing’ πŸ˜‰ It reminds me of Tijuana on steroids, but with lots of bling and undesirables all dealing in cash, drugs and porn πŸ™„

    Lol. Didn’t they say similar things when the Brits first starting coming to the area – Costa del Crime etc.? Must make for an interesting tele series, like Miami Vice?
    As I’ve already stated, the prices in Marbella would put me off anyway, but the way it’s been internationalised (like London or even Monte Carlo, I suppose) is also a turn-off for me. But for many that’s part of the appeal, and perhaps why prices tend to recover here first before other areas?

  • #106903
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    A chav is a chav. English or Russian.

  • #106914
    Profile photo of angie
    angie
    Spectator

    shakeel, you are right about chavs, however British Crims and their porn are lightweight compared to the hardcore Russkis and Eastern Europeans/Chinese triads that will take over the Costa del Sol if allowed. πŸ˜†

  • #107079
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    Why, do I have to agree with you Angie ?????????? Our thoughts are transplanted in our respective brains.

  • #107091
    Profile photo of angie
    angie
    Spectator

    shakeel, sometimes we are like ‘one’, sometimes katy and I are like ‘one’ too, three, four and sometimes I agree with everybody here and on another day no-one, help I’m cracking up πŸ˜†

  • #107093
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    Thats the fun of the forum, agreements or not it is healthy to share & not to share views in a grown up manner.

  • #107094
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    must admit was a bit sad saying goodbye last weekend when I was out in Costa del Sol attending notary etc

    The sun was shining, the place was deserted (the way I like it) and that andalucian light brightened up my whole mood for the weekend

    Β£50 for a plane ticket, 3 hours away, a different world indeed to back home which is miserably cold and gloomy

    These qualities will endure as economies, politicians come and go

    I see it bouncing back no doubt just simply a better quality of life overall

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