Is Spain the next "victim"?

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This topic contains 4 replies, has 3 voices, and was last updated by Profile photo of Chopera Chopera 4 years, 6 months ago.

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  • #56832
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    Greece seems to be heading for the exit from Euro. After that I expect that the next country to follow is going to be Spain.

    Do you expect Spain to leave Euro in the (very) near future(1-2 years, or less if things roll down quickly)?

  • #108855
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    its not just the real estate problem that is going to tip spain over its unemployment will be another factor as will the failure of the last government to act quickly

  • #109040
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    its not just the real estate problem that is going to tip spain over its unemployment will be another factor as will the failure of the last government to act quickly

  • #108856
    Profile photo of Chopera
    Chopera
    Participant

    The Spanish economy has more in common with Ireland than Greece.

    And as things stand I’d say that Spain will end up going the same route as Ireland: bailing out its banks and then getting bailed out by the EU. I see this happening before the end of the year. This would entail yet more austerity as Spain tries to meet the bailout conditions, and it will carry on for at least another 3 years. However during those 3 years Germany will come under too much pressure and will have to allow the ECB to QE. There will be a new “growth and stability” agreement that removes the ridiculous 3% deficit targets and the euro will stagger on. Eventually there will be a transfer union. Nothing will be done about the trade imbalances between the north and south of the eurozone because, with the same currency, nothing can be done.

    A messy Greek exit from the euro could change everything though.

  • #109042
    Profile photo of Chopera
    Chopera
    Participant

    The Spanish economy has more in common with Ireland than Greece.

    And as things stand I’d say that Spain will end up going the same route as Ireland: bailing out its banks and then getting bailed out by the EU. I see this happening before the end of the year. This would entail yet more austerity as Spain tries to meet the bailout conditions, and it will carry on for at least another 3 years. However during those 3 years Germany will come under too much pressure and will have to allow the ECB to QE. There will be a new “growth and stability” agreement that removes the ridiculous 3% deficit targets and the euro will stagger on. Eventually there will be a transfer union. Nothing will be done about the trade imbalances between the north and south of the eurozone because, with the same currency, nothing can be done.

    A messy Greek exit from the euro could change everything though.

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