Investor confidence in Spain improves says WSJ

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  • #56164
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    Anonymous
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    Good article in the WSJ. Spain is not out of the woods, but sentiments have improved. Spain might just muddle through yet.

    This chart is interesting. It shows how Spain’s risk premium has detached from the other risky countries, for the time being at least. This is very important, because it reduces Spain’s cost of capital, which has a big impact on the banks.

  • #103579
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    Anonymous
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  • #103581
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    Anonymous
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  • #103582
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    angie
    Spectator

    Well found dartboy, there’s always another side to a story and now Portugal is in big trouble this too will no doubt impact on Spain 🙄

  • #103584
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    Anonymous
    Participant

    @angie wrote:

    Well found dartboy, there’s always another side to a story and now Portugal is in big trouble this too will no doubt impact on Spain 🙄

    as they say there are lies damm lies and statistics 😆

  • #103597
    Profile photo of ozmunky
    ozmunky
    Participant

    @mark wrote:

    Good article in the WSJ. Spain is not out of the woods, but sentiments have improved. Spain might just muddle through yet.

    This chart is interesting. It shows how Spain’s risk premium has detached from the other risky countries, for the time being at least. This is very important, because it reduces Spain’s cost of capital, which has a big impact on the banks.

    Hello Mark

    The graph info is useful.

    However, the measure what really dictates whats going to happen in Spain are the the Credit Default Swap rates.

    These rates generally give a 10-14 day heads up to any crisis and have been very reliable and are followed by the markets due to their accuracy. Also, once this level is breached, the Spanish govt has minimal or no control over what happens next.

    When the CDS price goes above 750+ its time to get out or batten down the hatches.

    Spain isn’t in that zone yet but if things change quickly it soon will be. (last time I looked Spain was at 685)

    Kind Regards
    — Munky

  • #103598
    Profile photo of adiep
    adiep
    Participant

    Spain wont muddle through. It has no way to muddle through, unless the tooth fairy is going to start making a regular appearance.

  • #103642
    Profile photo of logan
    logan
    Participant

    The Spanish government and the Bank of Spain remain in denial regarding the cost of restructuring their Banks. Their estimates remain hopelessly inadequate. They began with an estimated cost to restructure the Caja’s of €17bn. The rating agencies estimate that cost alone at between €40bn to €50bn.
    Restructuring the entire banking sector to conform with the Basle 111 rules due to come into effect very soon will cost Spain €100bn according to Moody’s.
    This is in addition to the huge financial aid of around €70bn the ECB has already given to Spanish Banks.
    Any positive estimate for the likelihood of Spain recovering economically in the near future is premature. Its premature because in part the cost of servicing its debts represents a huge drag on the economy and will likely continue to increase.
    The country is drowning in debt. The regional governments like the banks are all but bankrupt and owe billions.
    I believe a financial bailout by Europe is almost and eventually inevitable.
    Spain represents the bottom line when it comes to the stability of the Euro project. Any bailout for Portugal and Spain will clean out the ESF. Germany will then have to stomp up even more cash or see the whole pack of cards come tumbling down.
    The principal question is will the German voters continue to support that or not? The signs are that they will not.
    http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/mar/29/banco-base-seeks-bailout
    http://www.eyeonspain.com/blogs/SpanishBusinessNews/5242/spain-lenders%E2%80%99-bad-loans-ratio-rises-to-highest-since-1995.aspx

  • #103647
    Profile photo of Chris McCarthy
    Chris McCarthy
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    Can somebody clear this up for me…

    Has not the UK the engaged in the practise of quantitative easing to a level previously considered unimaginable and is not the UK in rags and tatters?

    Did we not have the first run on a major bank in 200 years back in 2007, and don’t we the public, own something like 85% of the previously gloried RBS because it actually couldn’t make 2+2=4.

    Was it not, in the Houses of Parliament, that the heads of each major bank sat in front of a Commons Committee and it was discovered that none of the heads of the banks, had a single banking qualification between them?

    Was that the UK? I think it was and much more horrific stories of gross financial mismanagement and negligence besides when it came to the economy, which in our usual cahoots with the USA we, and they, almost managed to literally close down the entire world economy.

    Am sure I was sat here watching Alistair Darling explaining to the BBC Money Programme special how, we were within two hours of all the ATM’s in the UK shutting down and being unable to dispense money and an equal number of hours before all banking would have frozen and literally no ones wages would have been paid.

    What…. you think Spain has problems?

    And where were all you guys prior to 2008? And what was your financial analysis and data collecting telling you back then? I know Mark was predicting the Perfect Storm for the Spanish Property Market back in 2006 and I was agreeing with him.

    But now all of a sudden you all know with unbelievable certainty that Spain’s economy is on the rack and you all come from where… exactly? And you were what all ahead of the ball game come the crash too I suppose?

    Sorry but am afraid it is all phooey round here. I say this not to be rude, just that for about 3 years I religiously watched the stock market daily having gone in and lost a bundle and was waiting for it to come back, and I used to know the exchange rate to the € / £ by the hour, but I gave up looking at any of that quite a while back.

    It matters not folks, you need to get out and live a little, lets all meet up on the Paseo in Marbella have a beer and a tapas and chill down some.

    And believe it, am sure investor confidence in Spain is improving and there is an argument to say that but for quantitative easing on a MASSIVE SCALE the UK would have been in a lot worse position than Spain no?

    Or do I have it all wrong?

  • #103649
    Profile photo of ozmunky
    ozmunky
    Participant

    @Chris McCarthy wrote:

    Can somebody clear this up for me…

    Has not the UK the engaged in the practise of quantitative easing to a level previously considered unimaginable and is not the UK in rags and tatters?

    Did we not have the first run on a major bank in 200 years back in 2007, and don’t we the public, own something like 85% of the previously gloried RBS because it actually couldn’t make 2+2=4.

    Was it not, in the Houses of Parliament, that the heads of each major bank sat in front of a Commons Committee and it was discovered that none of the heads of the banks, had a single banking qualification between them?

    Was that the UK? I think it was and much more horrific stories of gross financial mismanagement and negligence besides when it came to the economy, which in our usual cahoots with the USA we, and they, almost managed to literally close down the entire world economy.

    Am sure I was sat here watching Alistair Darling explaining to the BBC Money Programme special how, we were within two hours of all the ATM’s in the UK shutting down and being unable to dispense money and an equal number of hours before all banking would have frozen and literally no ones wages would have been paid.

    What…. you think Spain has problems?

    And where were all you guys prior to 2008? And what was your financial analysis and data collecting telling you back then? I know Mark was predicting the Perfect Storm for the Spanish Property Market back in 2006 and I was agreeing with him.

    But now all of a sudden you all know with unbelievable certainty that Spain’s economy is on the rack and you all come from where… exactly? And you were what all ahead of the ball game come the crash too I suppose?

    Sorry but am afraid it is all phooey round here. I say this not to be rude, just that for about 3 years I religiously watched the stock market daily having gone in and lost a bundle and was waiting for it to come back, and I used to know the exchange rate to the € / £ by the hour, but I gave up looking at any of that quite a while back.

    It matters not folks, you need to get out and live a little, lets all meet up on the Paseo in Marbella have a beer and a tapas and chill down some.

    And believe it, am sure investor confidence in Spain is improving and there is an argument to say that but for quantitative easing on a MASSIVE SCALE the UK would have been in a lot worse position than Spain no?

    Or do I have it all wrong?

    Hello Chris

    Always good to see you. Hope you are well and your golfing is getting better than mine.

    As a worker in the markets, I am always asked to explain in laymens terms whats going on.

    Essentially its this :

    (i) QE (quantitative easing) is the process of governments giving cash as a loan to banks in return for bonds/shares to keep them functioning
    (ii) Unfortunately, the Banks have not lent the money out for mortgages or to businesses etc. to keep them going as the govt wanted, but instead have used it to put out fires in their own back yard or invested it for their benefit — both against the govts wishes but the silly govts didn’t have any mechanisms to force them to do what the govts wanted.
    (iii) So, what you have is Banks getting cash and told what to do with it but not enforced how they have spent it — so they have done whatever they wanted
    (iv) Spain is different however.
    (v) In Spain’s case the govt doesnt have enough cash or credibility in the bond markets to do a QE program — markets say you are nearly bust and you want to borrow more from us to do QE ?
    (vi) Spain has a huge debt from the property bubble but not the means to pay it back to the bond markets — manufacturing, tourism, property sales cant pay the bills.
    (vii) Unemployment in Spain is 20% and economy contracting.
    (viii) Market (Bond market — bankers to the govt) cant see how they are going to repay.

    End Game: Markets lose faith, interest rates rise to spain, govt stubbornly goes alone,EU says they are too big bail out, govt runs out of money, IMF crisis who knows what else happens……

    What does this mean for property buyers, owners, agents ?

    (i) those on euro mortgages with not too much equity will be crushed
    (ii) property values must drop dramatically to provide liquidity for stressed banks
    (ii) agents better start telling sellers to be realistic or dont bother and deal with consequences
    (ii) those owning outright will be OK provided they hold and not sell due to health reasons, divorce etc ….

    The reasons the UK will come out of it better is:

    (i) London financial markets are the biggest on earth — 7 times bigger than New York (its next competitor)
    (ii) UK will innovate its way out of the slump — do not under estimate biotech and quality high value stuff the US cant do properly
    (iii) The UK will also lead the way for private finance/hedge funds — no other center can compete on rule of law, deal making and infrastructure (finance, lawyers etc)

    What does Spain have to offer ?

    (i) Weather
    (ii) Golf
    (iii) Nice relaxed lifestyle

    No contest in the end.

    — Munnky

  • #103650
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    logan
    Participant

    I would add to Munky’s excellent assessment the secrecy, lack of transparency and underhand dealings of the Spanish government and banks which erodes market confidence.
    A small personal example. I have some investments in CAM (Caja Mediterreaneo). I have had in the recent past various upbeat annual reports regarding their positive financial stability and liquidity base.
    I read this morning this bank are to seek financial aid from the government bailout fund and may face nationalisation.
    Any investor in Spain constantly faces these smoke and mirror screens and the government are experts in covering up the true state of the economy.
    As a consequence markets lose confidence in the countries ability to deal with their problems and turn the economy round on their own. Bringing the likelihood of ESF bailout ever closer.
    Britain dealt with it’s banking problems in an open manner, came clean with the markets and turned a very bad position quickly. Spain has allowed a very bad position to get even worse.

  • #103651
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    Anonymous
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    “those on euro mortgages with not too much equity will be crushed “
    Ozmonkey, Can you please explain this did you mean those with too much or too high gearing will be crushed ???

  • #103652
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    Anonymous
    Participant

    It can’t be a coincidence that this news is breaking on the same day as results of the revised bank stress tests are due to be published.

    I feel that a run on Cam, similar to that on Northern Rock, is on the cards.

    Even without one the news is worrying. Cam were in advanced merger discussions with three other cajas. These have fallen apart. I can only assume that the other cajas looked at Cam’s books and shied away from the deal. This also leaves the government/BoS strategy of merging the smaller cajas into larger more sustainable businesses in disarray.

    Hold tight, it could be a bumpy ride.

    http://www.forexyard.com/en/news/Spanish-savings-bank-CAM-to-ask-state-for-funds-2011-03-31T073700Z-UPDATE-1

  • #103653
    Profile photo of Chris McCarthy
    Chris McCarthy
    Participant

    @ozmunky wrote:

    What does Spain have to offer ?
    (i) Weather
    (ii) Golf
    (iii) Nice relaxed lifestyle
    No contest in the end.
    — Munnky

    Quite true…!

    Thanks for the rest of the post however, it was indeed excellent as Logan said, the only thing I would say, and jeeze its not like me to be on a ‘financial thread’ is that in relation to agents, sellers, prices etc you talk as if these things have yet to happen, when they have already happened to a large degree and are continuing, and a lot of the other needed ‘stuff’ is in process it seems to me.

    I still think the UK is a basket case however, I mean what kind of government is it that cannot regulate these banks that brought us to our knees in the first place, then gives them the money, our money, sorry printed new money, to just do with as they please?

    Personally, I think the heads of the banks should have been lined up and shot or at least jailed, and I think the people in the financial markets and banking community need to get back to realising it isn’t their own money they are playing with, it is yours and mine.

    Now how boring, silly and just plain flat cap does all that sound! But true.

    And yet like I said before, I give up worrying about it all quite frankly, life is too short, we on the back of the most cataclysmic financial collapse and crisis in living memory. One that the full detail of which may not come out for another decade or more, because it is just toooo scary even now to recognise.

    So everything is going to be screwed up for a while whatever way we all can look at it.

    Where is the glass half full stuff is what I want to know?

  • #103654
    Profile photo of logan
    logan
    Participant

    Some more background information here:-
    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/a1ba31d8-59db-11e0-ba8d-00144feab49a.html#axzz1IBFszBwG
    It is clear that the true extent of losses in the property sector are finally being revealed. Merger talks have sent some Caja’s running for the exits.
    This may well be Spain’s Lehman Brothers moment if the government does the same.
    Nobody is likely to escape the catastrophe that is investment, property or otherwise in Spain.
    As one very wise lady once said, “just when you think things can’t get any worse, they get worse”. 🙁

  • #103656
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    Anonymous
    Participant

    “what kind of government is it that cannot regulate these banks that brought us to our knees in the first place “

    Slight,diversion. With the perceive threath to UK & UK plc, we have sent boys to war & have around 500 killed. However UK Plc has been destroyed by the Bankers. Instead what we do give them Bonus & more money !!!!!!

    I am not Banker bashing. Bankers have been a fair weather friend since their inception. Society needs to clip their wings.

  • #103657
    Profile photo of Chris McCarthy
    Chris McCarthy
    Participant

    Here we go the glass is half full after all…

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/mar/27/spain-portugal-economic-crisis-default-debt

    ….and yes this is me posting a link on a ‘financial’ thread, long live the Spanish Property Investment forum.

    So there you go guys, cut yourselves some slack…

  • #103659
    Profile photo of logan
    logan
    Participant

    OK that’s fine then. God’s in his heaven and all is right with the world.
    No need to worry about my dodgy investments and my depreciating property portfolio heading south.
    If a Guardian jurno thinks it’s all OK it’s OK. Thank Christ for that!
    Think I’ll celebrate a little. My assets are in safe hands, thanks Chris. 😆

  • #103660
    Profile photo of kgpoc
    kgpoc
    Participant

    I have been enjoying all the latest topics and input great job and great reading, but THAT WAS A TERRIBLE ARTICLE! (no offence Chris, I like your stuff, this is purely with that author) I will be the first to agree that I do not think Spain will use the ESF or need too, but getting the outcome right off bad analysis is just luck!

    It reads like an English professor (no offence) writing an economics paper:
    – History of bailouts, come on!
    – Increase of retirement age, give me a break, this is a 0 on the left when you have a market that cannot create jobs..
    – Good government decisions, WHAT! They lowed public debt in the 2000 – 2008, well of course with a VAT system everything goes up with consumptions increases, so even if you did not pay down your principle, your GDP is growing. Talk about austerity working, we still do not have 2010 results buddy!

    And the real topics, he said he did not have time to go into them.. Augh, that is classic..

  • #103661
    Profile photo of kgpoc
    kgpoc
    Participant

    And I forgot to add that he already got it wrong, he should have waited 3 days and then deleted the comment on the banks needing or seeking public money. CAM needs twice the funding thought and now their whole ‘fusion’ with that 2 or 3 other cajas has fallen through..

  • #103662
    Profile photo of ozmunky
    ozmunky
    Participant

    @shakeel wrote:

    “those on euro mortgages with not too much equity will be crushed “
    Ozmonkey, Can you please explain this did you mean those with too much or too high gearing will be crushed ???

    Hi Shakeel

    Hope you are well and I have enjoyed your posts over the years.

    Yes, certainly.

    Those folks that are highly geared (ie big mortgage little deposit) did it in good times when property was thought to only go up in value.

    In a down market (like now), 2 critical things will happen:

    (i) Interest rates will increase and so will the cost of the mortgage — this we all know and understand — the killer is the next point :
    (ii) all mortgages (UK ones do, suspect Spanish ones also) have fine print that says if the Bank determines you are in negative equity, the Bank will demand a “deposit top up” to reduce their exposure and give you 30 days to make the cash deposit — people in this bind will get a letter to pay a cash top up of 10-20% of original property market value on the documents.

    Point (ii) is already happening here in London for those with BTL portfolios, HSBC is famous for sending out the letters and now all banks do it.

    I dont know if this has started yet in Spain, but it will — todays action in Ireland will only increase the chance it will happen because bond markets will now not lend to Southern EU nations (Spain, Portugal, Italy — who all depend on this funding avenue) because the Irish want to impose haircuts on EU bondholders (ie other Banks, pension funds).

    Sorry to be rambling, but its important to explain the source of the knock on effect you will see in Spain’s property market down the track.

    Best Wishes
    — Munky

  • #103663
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    Anonymous
    Participant

    Thanks Ozmunky. My understanding was on the lines that you mention. Yes as interest rates goes up the instalment goes up. However when it comes to beefing up the Banks margin or the negating the shrinking LTV. I wonder whose valution the bank will use to establish if the values have fallen and if yes, to what extent. The demand of 15% -20% can be challanged.

    In the present climate would the Bank forclose or accept an off balance sheet lower value on it Assets.

  • #103666
    Profile photo of ozmunky
    ozmunky
    Participant

    @shakeel wrote:

    Thanks Ozmunky. My understanding was on the lines that you mention. Yes as interest rates goes up the instalment goes up. However when it comes to beefing up the Banks margin or the negating the shrinking LTV. I wonder whose valution the bank will use to establish if the values have fallen and if yes, to what extent. The demand of 15% -20% can be challanged.

    In the present climate would the Bank forclose or accept an off balance sheet lower value on it Assets.

    Yes, you are right.

    However in the case of the UK, the Banks have hired lots of registered valuers on contract to go through their entre mortgage books.

    The valuation they act on — and will demand a cash top up on — is accepted as such in a court of law so fighting it is difficult — if you have funds to fight it, its better to top up.

    The excitement in Spain is about to start. Once everyone realises in Spain they (Banks, Govt) cant get money anymore from the markets, the Banks will turn nasty within to those who have highly geared mortgages on an asset that has decreased in value.

    With Spain’s unreliable legal system the risk to owners is worse.

    Regards

    — Munky

  • #103667
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    Anonymous
    Participant

    To top up you need funds and to fight one can reprsent him/herself. I doubt if the Judge will allow cost if one loses even if the case is brought in a small claims Court.

    In so far as the Legal system is concerned The person just has to take the judge to the pole dancing club in Banus a night before the hearing.

  • #103669
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    Anonymous
    Participant

    osmunkey said “(ii)

    all mortgages (UK ones do, suspect Spanish ones also) have fine print that says if the Bank determines you are in negative equity, the Bank will demand a “deposit top up” to reduce their exposure and give you 30 days to make the cash deposit — people in this bind will get a letter to pay a cash top up of 10-20% of original property market value on the documents.”

    this doesn’t exist here in Spain, even on commercial (commercial property loans); here the banks shut their eyes and hope for the best; ie that you pay; and if you don’t they nail you good and proper……….. 😯

  • #103670
    Profile photo of peterhun
    peterhun
    Participant

    @Chris McCarthy wrote:

    Here we go the glass is half full after all…

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/mar/27/spain-portugal-economic-crisis-default-debt

    ….and yes this is me posting a link on a ‘financial’ thread, long live the Spanish Property Investment forum.

    So there you go guys, cut yourselves some slack…

    Spanish Property Insight kind of hints at investment don’t you think? Certainly does’t make me think about golf or sunshine.

    Besides which, you don’t need to buy to live in Spain and you don’t spend such a massive amount of money without considering the investment/financial implications.

    @kgpoc wrote:

    And I forgot to add that he already got it wrong, he should have waited 3 days and then deleted the comment on the banks needing or seeking public money. CAM needs twice the funding thought and now their whole ‘fusion’ with that 2 or 3 other cajas has fallen through..

    Its not an article, its comment; an opinion. There is no need to prove anything or check facts. Hence:

    Albert Marcet is professor of economics at the LSE and a former professor at the Institut d’Anàlisi Econòmica and the Universitat Pompeu Fabra (Barcelona)

    Is typical of Spanish economic commentators,they are biased and spill out propaganda to fit their agenda. The fact that he’s already been proven wrong, cements the fact.

  • #103673
    Profile photo of Chris McCarthy
    Chris McCarthy
    Participant

    @peterhun wrote:

    Is typical of Spanish economic commentators,they are biased and spill out propaganda to fit their agenda.

    You sure got that right….

    Economic commentators and predictions hey, who needs them, my point exactly.

    Thanks Peterhun couldn’t have got it more spot on.

  • #103674
    Profile photo of adiep
    adiep
    Participant

    Spanish banks may be in for a shock. How will this pan out?

    http://www.propertyworks.org/blog/post.cfm/court-case-in-navarra-court-stops-banks-from-persuing-mortgage-debt

    Court case in Navarra, Court stops banks from persuing mortgage debt

    Court case in Navarra, Court stops banks from persuing mortgage debt

    The judge ruled that by taking the property the bank had enough to cancel the loan of 72,000 Euros, even though there were no bidders when the property was offered at auction for half the loan, around 43,000 Euros, as required by law.

    The judge pointed out that the banks own valuation suggested the property was worth enough to cover the loan. The judge also said it was morally unacceptable to go after the couple for more money. BBVA, the bank, are going after the couple for the difference of around 28,000 Euros, and have appealed the decision calling it irrational and arbitrary, in the strictly legal sense. They will probably win on appeal. Non-recourse vs. Personal Liability Mortgages.

    By law, mortgages in Spain are all personal liability loans, meaning borrowers have to answer with all their assets, present and future, until the debt is repaid. That contrasts with non-recourse mortgages in the US, where the worst-case for borrowers is losing their home and credit rating but nothing more. Hence the term jingle-mail in the US, whereby borrowers walk away and post their house keys back to the bank. Debt-for-property swaps are an option in Spain, known as dacion en pago, but only if the lender agrees. If not, borrowers are stuck with their debts, and may end up paying off the mortgage long after the property is gone. Now that Spain has 20pc unemployment and hundreds of thousands of repossessions, and clamour is growing to change mortgage laws that can trap families in a lifetime of debt.

    The government has made it clear it has no intention of changing the law in the short-term. Doing so would harm Spains financial system, says Elena Salgado, Minister of Finance. She didnt rule out a change in future.

    Posted by Property Works on 02/07/2011 at 11:18 AM | Categories:

  • #103675
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    ” Doing so would harm Spains financial system, says Elena Salgado, Minister of Finance. She didnt rule out a change in future “.

    None of the system Legal, financial, political is held in any esteem. This inequatable system has been a drag on Spain & will remain a drag. This is a golden opportunity for Spain to get their act together & blame the crises without losing political face. ( They had already lost out on the opprtunity to restructure during the construction boom )

    However as they do not feel that they are behind the curve in relation to other advance economies so I do not expect any changes. One has to see once’s shortcoming to take any action.

  • #103678
    Profile photo of logan
    logan
    Participant

    Serious bank boardroom meetings in Madrid yesterday afternoon to decide the future of some Caja’s including CAM.
    Word on ‘the street’ is CAM requires a cash injection of €3bn. That figure and the extent of toxic property holdings at the bank broke the back of the merger deals. CAM was a major financier of Polaris World.
    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-31/spanish-caja-merger-collapse-may-scare-off-potential-investors.html
    The latest rumour is that Banco Santander may take over CAM but nothings confirmed. The government will have to act soon. Incidentally in the last Spanish Bank stress tests CAM sailed through. As discussed at the time on here those stress tests were fatally flawed. Even the Irish banks came up smelling of roses.

  • #103690
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    Anonymous
    Participant

    @logan wrote:

    Serious bank boardroom meetings in Madrid yesterday afternoon to decide the future of some Caja’s including CAM.
    Word on ‘the street’ is CAM requires a cash injection of €3bn. That figure and the extent of toxic property holdings at the bank broke the back of the merger deals. CAM was a major financier of Polaris World.
    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-31/spanish-caja-merger-collapse-may-scare-off-potential-investors.html
    The latest rumour is that Banco Santander may take over CAM but nothings confirmed. The government will have to act soon. Incidentally in the last Spanish Bank stress tests CAM sailed through. As discussed at the time on here those stress tests were fatally flawed. Even the Irish banks came up smelling of roses.

    Just want to give a warning about CAM. A friend of mine works there and he has been telling me for quite some time now that everything is going sour. Some of his bosses doesn’t even seem to care anymore according to him.

  • #103691
    Profile photo of adiep
    adiep
    Participant

    @logan wrote:

    Serious bank boardroom meetings in Madrid yesterday afternoon to decide the future of some Caja’s including CAM.
    Word on ‘the street’ is CAM requires a cash injection of €3bn. That figure and the extent of toxic property holdings at the bank broke the back of the merger deals. CAM was a major financier of Polaris World.
    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-31/spanish-caja-merger-collapse-may-scare-off-potential-investors.html
    The latest rumour is that Banco Santander may take over CAM but nothings confirmed. The government will have to act soon. Incidentally in the last Spanish Bank stress tests CAM sailed through. As discussed at the time on here those stress tests were fatally flawed. Even the Irish banks came up smelling of roses.

    3bn??? haha, very typically spanish technique. They need far more than that, the 3bn will be just the amount needed to get the water turned back on.

  • #103692
    Profile photo of adiep
    adiep
    Participant

    Any external that throws funds at these banks now is either an idiot or a thief

  • #103696
    Profile photo of logan
    logan
    Participant

    The €3bn figure is not confirmed and is thought to be just the start of the financial black hole.
    Moddy’s believe the cost of restructuring the entire Spanish banking sector is over €100bn even that may prove inadequate.
    It is very difficult even for market professionals to find out the true extent of the problem. Lack of transparency is endemic in Spanish business affairs, so the speculation and gossip continues undermining their stock.
    If the banks came out and revealed to the world the true state of their positions perhaps some degree of confidence could return to the markets. Yet they simply prefer to bury bad news.
    When you have a government behaving in the same way what chance?

  • #103697
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    Anonymous
    Participant

    “Yet they simply prefer to bury bad news”
    Sadly, that is the Spanish mentality hence ” the pasa nada attitude & I just go for a fiesta. This to me shows a lack of maturity one can take an indivual behaving in this manner but when the Government & governmental bodies acting in a similar manner than we have a serious problem.

    Do, I blame Franco for it !!! who manipulated the situation & as no would question & lived in a parallel world a whole generation grew with it & its consequences.

  • #103699
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    Anonymous
    Participant

    @shakeel wrote:

    “Yet they simply prefer to bury bad news”
    Sadly, that is the Spanish mentality hence ” the pasa nada attitude & I just go for a fiesta. This to me shows a lack of maturity one can take an indivual behaving in this manner but when the Government & governmental bodies acting in a similar manner than we have a serious problem.

    Do, I blame Franco for it !!! who manipulated the situation & as no would question & lived in a parallel world a whole generation grew with it & its consequences.

    Hehe what one wouldn’t expect is that Franco is very much liked by many older spanish people. My father in law is around 80 years old and raised in a small farm village on Mallorca but went to Sweden to work back when Spain was poor. His family was hunted by Franco and he still thinks it was better back then. 😀 According to him everything was better back then because people behaved and crime was none existant. Only downside according to him was that you couldn’t play poker without doing it in hiding.

    Sorry for being off topic.

    Yes for us that come from the north their system of getting stuff done is hard to get used to. As an example “donating” som wine to the local council would in Sweden be considered a bribe but in Spain it’s nothing strange and usually the only way to get a permission to do something sorted. I actually think people miss factoring in these sort of costs when doing bussiness in Spain and especially in the southern parts of it. We usually joke about our civil servants in Sweden being lazy but compared to Spanish ones they work like crazy. 😆 I have so many funny stories regarding their hiearchy/bureaucracy that I could keep on going for hours.

    In the end though I love Spain but it’s best for long vacations. I have enjoyed working there also but working in Spain is not very efficient and you usually spend way to much being at work but not accomplishing to much because you can’t count on anything going as it should.

  • #103702
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    Anonymous
    Participant

    Spanish or Swedish. People who wants to acheive & do things with their lives do not become bureauctrats.

    Older people will invariably say that the bygone years were better.

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