How low will the Pound go?

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This topic contains 25 replies, has 9 voices, and was last updated by Profile photo of Anonymous Anonymous 3 years, 10 months ago.

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  • #57254
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    What is going on with the British Pound? It just keeps plummeting against the Euro. Isn’t the Euro-zone supposed to be a basket case? In which case, what does that make the UK?

    How low do you think it will go this time? Anyone dare to hazard a guess? Below 1.10 EUR/GBP? Below 1:1?

    For the rate I’m using http://www.google.com/finance?q=GBPEUR

  • #114971
    Profile photo of katy
    katy
    Spectator

    Pound up a cent from Friday πŸ˜† It could drop to parity, who knows, we would be rich if we did!
    Just like to point out the euro is also high against the dollar (from 1.28 to 1.36 in a week) It has to be looked at worldwide. Certainly not doing the eurozone recovery prospects any good.

    For a better understanding it is better to read the analysts on some Forex sites. Or google why is the Euro strong πŸ˜†

  • #114974
    Profile photo of angie
    angie
    Spectator

    The plummeting pound will probably make Brits postpone their decisions to buy property in the Eurozone, exacerbating the property markets, it would me, unless the property prices are reduced further to compensate. Then, assuming the rate stays poor for Brits, if your income is derived in the UK to spend in Eurozone such as pensions, Brits get hammered again. πŸ™„ British residents must be very worried. πŸ™

    If I wanted to sell now in Spain for example, I would cut my price to Brits in the hopes of a sale πŸ˜‰

    I think parity is quite likely as it nearly was before πŸ™„

  • #114977
    Profile photo of katy
    katy
    Spectator

    ….and if the Brits have their UK income sliced they aren’t helping the economy where they live.

    What baffles me is when the Eurozone economy was booming and (supposedly) overtaking the UK. the exchange rate was around Β£1 to 1.50€…any ideas πŸ˜•

  • #114978
    Profile photo of Chopera
    Chopera
    Participant

    I think it might in part be due to the noises Mark Carney (the next BoE head) has been making about going for growth at all costs, and not being too bothered about inflation. The UK has generally tried to talk the pound down every time it spends a few months above €1.20. I think they’d like it to be around €1.10 but obviously it’s not something that’s in their hands. It looks like the eurozone crisis might kick off again now with Spanish and Italian bonds creeping up, so maybe it won’t go much lower (if I knew these things I’d be a billionaire)

  • #114979
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    Mervyn King was an expert in talking down the pound, helped by a lot of QE. The new man seems just as keen to do both, perhaps even more so.

    The only hope for expats like me, in the clutches of currency traders, would be the Eurozone shooting itself in the foot again.

    There’s every chance of it happening.

  • #114980
    Profile photo of angie
    angie
    Spectator

    Probably some truth in what you say chopera, about Mark Carney going for growth, otherwise and like katy, I can’t find a reason for exchange rate at present, and certainly not linked to the Footsie either πŸ˜• Maybe manipulated somehow πŸ™„

  • #114983
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    Speculation and proof of that they are letting their printing presses run at light speed. Nothing weird really.

  • #114984
    Profile photo of katy
    katy
    Spectator

    The demise of the pound may be a bit premature…the sh** has hit the fan again :mrgreen: Up 2 cents today.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/markets/9847489/European-markets-and-euro-fall-amid-investor-concern-over-Spain-and-Italy.html

    Really pisses me off that he UK stock market takes a hit because of a coupl of banana republics!!

  • #114987
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    Sometimes a throw-away remark, probably written in haste, makes you sit up and smell the coffee, I’m on my second cup of the morning. We’ve both lived in the same ‘banana republic’ for many, many years, and I still do.

    For our own, personal reasons, you talk it down, I talk it up. You complain that the UK stock market falls because of Eurozone corruption and incompetence; I applaud the unexpected rising of the pound against the Euro because of it.

    I find it weird that both of our lives are affected by matters totally beyond our control. I would benefit from the UK joining the Eurozone to take away the uncertainty over my finances, you don’t want the UK to join in with the heathens across the channel.

    It’s unlikely that either of us will find complete peace of mind for many years, if ever.

    (The pound is rising again this morning).

  • #114988
    Profile photo of DBMarcos99
    DBMarcos99
    Participant

    The UK finances are looking very dodgy to outside analysts – all that QE to buy up gilts has to be repaid at some point, probably by the younger generation, and if there is no growth, then the money men get worried..Still, if the govt actually goes ahead with its infrastructure schemes, we may see progress.
    Good news if the rise in the Euro has been halted. There have been various announcements of car companies making major investments in Spain this year (Ford, Volkswagen, Renault and Nissan), plus clothes manufacturers and the like have planned to move outsourced work back to Spain http://economia.elpais.com/economia/2013/01/21/agencias/1358776187_526072.html It’s starting to be recognised as a low cost and efficient place to do work again, but that effect will be wiped out if the Euro rises too far.

  • #114989
    Profile photo of katy
    katy
    Spectator

    Hmmm…and how is the IBEX this morning. ❓ 7900 and dropping yesterday!

  • #114990
    Profile photo of logan
    logan
    Participant

    The Forex markets in which I am a small player are just that a market. It’s simply designed to make those involved money and provide a bench mark for international investment. Buy at one price sell at another. It always amuses me when I listen to ‘experts’ talking one currency up against another and predicting the future. Only the almighty knows that and I think he lives in Omaha. πŸ˜†

    If you try and find a logic you will be wasting your time. Ask yourself where the logic is when a roulette ball lands on black three time out of seven.

    Traders buy and sell currency just because they feel the ball may land on red next because of three successive blacks. I agree they get jittery when there’s bad news about but that just wakes up their concentration.

    Sterling is basically as sound as any other currency. It’s down now and likely to stay that way until good UK economic news starts to increase confidence. BTW a weak currency is instrumental in changing a countries export fortunes and the UK sure needs that.

  • #114991
    Profile photo of DBMarcos99
    DBMarcos99
    Participant

    @katy wrote:

    Hmmm…and how is the IBEX this morning. ❓ 7900 and dropping yesterday!

    Climbing back up – now 8036. Thanks for asking πŸ˜† http://www.eleconomista.es/indice/IBEX-35
    I was hoping TEF would fall a bit more – still time…

  • #114993
    Profile photo of DBMarcos99
    DBMarcos99
    Participant

    @mgspain wrote:

    It’s important to keep things in perspective, the government and the newspapers will spin the new investments and rightly so, it’s good news for the people who will get jobs.
    If we take the case of the Nissan plant in Barcelona. It will be 1000 direct and 3’000 indirect.

    Correct me if I’m wrong but haven’t we have lost 8’000 jobs every day in January? (yes. every day)

    So the 4’000 new jobs in this particular case will cover half a days lost jobs in the country.
    I think this puts in scale the size of the task ahead.

    Even in the past few years of recession, you have months where the unemployed figures go down.
    You can’t take January figures in isolation and then say it’s an average for the year. Otherwise we could take figures in June or July and say 1000s of jobs are created every day.
    The govt has said that jobs overall will be created by year end *. Various events and signs, such as the motor industry investments (not just Nissan, you have Ford, Volkswagen and Nissan too), assembly plants bringing back outsourced work, and yes, the 50euro measure for young autonomos, will all help in this respect. Remember too that the internal tourist industry has been hit very hard by the recession. As car makers in Pamplona or Barcelona, or tram makers in Bilbao, gain new contracts, they will start to come back to Benidorm or Mallorca.

    And yes, it’s anticipated that construction work at EuroVegas will start by the year end. It slipped out yesterday that Alcorcon is very likely the designated location (also that Casarrubios aerodrome will be converted into a full airport to help with capacity in central Spain).

    * you may choose not to believe this, but we’ll see soon enough.

  • #114994
    Profile photo of Chopera
    Chopera
    Participant

    I get the impression January is the main month for laying people off in Spain. I suspect it is mainly down to tax reasons.

  • #114995
    Profile photo of logan
    logan
    Participant

    I think it’s perhaps a positive aspect of this forum we have contributors who post good news and bad news. Provided it is not disingenuous. ie: agents and property sellers talking up the property market solely for their own selfish reasons.

    Western capitalist nations usually do not stay in an economic depression forever. Investors see opportunity when markets decent so low. That’s an intricate part of how the system works. Sterling for example this last week looked very cheap at 1.148 so investors took a punt pushing it up to 1.16 today and right now we see profit taking so it’s weakening again. The logic is 1.14 may perhaps be it’s current base but who knows.

    Spain will recover at some point in the future. Their exports are doing well despite the strong Euro. However until consumers start spending again and unemployment falls not much will change.

  • #114996
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    I broke one of my New Year resolutions on the second day of this odd year – I checked the currency markets. Like poor Gazza, I don’t seem to be able to stop myself, maybe I need a spell in Arizona too.

    I can’t think of a single excuse for my compulsion to check on the state of the pound every day, and I was going to check it on a monthly basis this year, but failed, I’ve already checked it about three times today and I’ve been out in the blazing sunshine for the past two hours. Even the most basic Spanish cafes have internet access these days, they don’t make it easy for me.

    1,1625, and that’s a second ago.

  • #114998
    Profile photo of logan
    logan
    Participant

    On about the weather again Rocker. 8) Excessive compulsive disorder is a sign of too much time on your hands. Methinks you need a distraction. Someone once wrote you need three things to be happy in life.
    1. Something to do
    2. Someone to love.
    3. Something to look forward to.

  • #114999
    Profile photo of angie
    angie
    Spectator

    Rocker, be careful in that blazing sun every day, too much sun is bad for your skin, you don’t want to end up like a wrinkled prune πŸ™„

    When we lived in Spain, we often longed for some cool grey days and soft rains, a lot of Brits we knew didn’t know what to do with themselves in the baking heat day after day, apart from drinking cheap booze πŸ˜‰

  • #115008
    Profile photo of angie
    angie
    Spectator

    Good post mg, refreshing to hear your views. You live in Spain and employ others yet you speak with realism and understand the situation with clear glasses on. I think if Spain said it truthfully at least people thinking of moving there would understand the issues and make their own minds up without being misled by spin and hype. At the moment I don’t think people in the UK know what’s really going on there so probably do nothing which does not help the Spanish economy πŸ˜‰

  • #115010
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    @logan wrote:

    On about the weather again Rocker. 8) Excessive compulsive disorder is a sign of too much time on your hands. Methinks you need a distraction. Someone once wrote you need three things to be happy in life.
    1. Something to do
    2. Someone to love.
    3. Something to look forward to.

    Whoever wrote of those three things must have been a wise man. And I’m not doing too badly.

    I had a phone call this morning from 6,000 miles away and it was all good news. But it could feed my obsession with the currency market, this time with the pound/American Dollar, but reversed to my fears for the pound/Euro.

    Optimism is the word I was searching for, and the dermatologist can wait another year.

    Anyway, for a few thousand Zlotys you can go to Poland and have all the wrinkles removed, cheaply. I know a lady who has had it done, I saw her today and she looks all right, and ten years younger.

  • #115013
    Profile photo of angie
    angie
    Spectator

    ‘Yes but no but’ Rocker, she might look all right now, 10 years younger, but her face will tighten in next 10 years, her lips will be like slits, and she will need it done again or look 20 years older πŸ™„ I saw one yesterday in London, thought she was 20 something from the back instead of which the face lift made her look well into her sixties now it’s tightening, known as a 16/61, looks 16 from the back but 61 from the front, seriously. 😯

    All these tattoos are going to wither and go limp in the sun too, beautiful butterflies now will look like mosquitoes, some on their backs above their elastic will disappear into women’s bottoms never to be seen again, ‘LOVE’ will look like a bruise, ‘anchors’ will drop like a stone, and then all the piercings will recede into belly buttons and nostrils, don’t do it Rocker, it’s not worth it, retain your fair looks with good old English rain πŸ˜‰

  • #115014
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    Good advice, Angie, but I wasn’t going to have it done anyway, I’m a man and think that a few unobtrusive wrinkles in the right place make you look intelligent and world-wise.

    I do know a lady locally who has lived in the sun for 20 years or so. She is a stunner from behind, but as you said, her face has been ravaged by the sun and she could do with an urgent visit to Poland.

    During the hot summer, I slap on coconut oil, factor 20, I’ve gotten used to the smell and it keeps the Mozzies away too.

    I don’t think fair skin in the rain is something I crave for, I had too many years of it.

  • #115015
    Profile photo of pizzacheaze
    pizzacheaze
    Participant

    @Rocker wrote:

    She is a stunner from behind

    πŸ˜†

  • #115017
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    @mgspain wrote:

    @pizzacheaze wrote:
    @Rocker wrote:
    She is a stunner from behind

    πŸ˜†

    Those Benny Hill women were like that. πŸ˜†

    You must have been telling porkies about your birthday if you remember Benny Hill. Diez anos mas, eh, minimo.

    I do wonder at the present obsessions with behinds, it used to be the other way round. Getting back to wrinkled faces, very common among the expat community, it’s not brown envelopes that are popular, it’s brown paper bags.

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