Grim currency prediction

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This topic contains 57 replies, has 24 voices, and was last updated by Profile photo of Anonymous Anonymous 7 years, 11 months ago.

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  • #54571
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    Hi All,

    Was listening to someone from Currencies Direct on the radio and they are prediciting the pound to be at 80 to 90 centimes next year against the Euro. Thats realy grim for the property market unless you have buyers who already have Euros. Think this is going to be the final nail in the coffin for the Spanish market relying on the British. With most of Europe not buying very much, a frozen domestic market and just a few Russians, its going to be a disaster.

    Anyone with a UK pension coming in and living in Spain is also going to feel this very badly. I sold so many properties to retired people when the rates were around 1.5 and they could make their money go a long, long way.

    Even with price cuts by builders I cant see that they can make the original perceptions of the buyers return. Mostly its a place to buy a cheaper home, bank some money, lots of sunshine and a low cost of living. Please dont jump on me with a million other things, I know there is, Im just generalising from the main things clients have told me. The only part of the equation left will be the sunshine.

    So I will put my hand up and admit I was wrong. I voted in the poll here for a soft landing. Even if that had happened there is going to be hardly any UK buyers.

    At 80 centimes to the pound, be prepared for the Spanish to buy here!!

    Bernard

  • #88570
    Profile photo of katy
    katy
    Spectator

    Don’t think the Spanish are too interested just now. Saw a discussion on a Spanish forum yesterday. One poster pointed out that the apartment he rents at 500 euro pm. would cost him 1000 pm for a 70 year mortgage so why bother buying.

    An average property in Germany costs around 150,000 so why would they bother either. Was talking to someone last night, he has had/has many big interests here and said he has been liquidating what he can over the past 18 months, his opinion is that Spain is finished and this was before the crunch. His investments are going to the USA. He had been investing in Spain since the 80’s.

  • #88572
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    Anonymous
    Participant

    @blawes1 wrote:

    Hi All,

    Was listening to someone from Currencies Direct on the radio and they are prediciting the pound to be at 80 to 90 centimes next year against the Euro. Thats realy grim for the property market unless you have buyers who already have Euros. So I will put my hand up and admit I was wrong. I voted in the poll here for a soft landing. Even if that had happened there is going to be hardly any UK buyers.

    At 80 centimes to the pound, be prepared for the Spanish to buy here!!

    Bernard

    At 80 centimes/Pound I am sure most of the Brits will spend their holidays in UK or chose very cheap European destinations.

    I have a 70K Euros fund to purchase something in Spain, if the Euro goes to parity with £ I shall happily purchase something 5 minutes from me in UK instead.

  • #88573
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    Anonymous
    Participant

    It is very worrying for all of us with pensions in £s. However, be a little wary of predictions from Currency companies who are always keen for people to buy “before the rate goes down further”. Even the £ is unlikely to be a one-way bet forever and I have read several commentators who expect things to stabilise Feb-April 09 at a higher level than now.

    I stress I am not an expert or a predictor but it is easy to get carried away at the moment.

    In addition nothing would make me wish to spend my retirement in the UK.

  • #88574
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    Anonymous
    Participant

    It is also worth considering just how long Spain [& some other EU countries] can sustain the Euro at its present levels against the £. If the spanish economy is as bad as others suggest they may have to leave the Euro to survive and a peseta/£ exchange would be more generous than the current Euro/£ rate.

  • #88575
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    Anonymous
    Participant

    Well, I just don’t get it. The fall in the pound seems to be because of the generally poor economic situation in the UK, but is Europe really that much netter? I just cannot see that the drop in the pound (vs the euro) is supportable by the objective reality of the situation. I suspect that what is really going on is the same kind of speculative manipulation of the markets that pushed oil to such an extreme high earlier in the year.

    Of course, I am no economist and I could easily be wrong. But I just cannot see that there is a solid case for the pound falling to these new predicted lows. In fact, I cannot see the current levels are supportable either.

    Does anyone here know on what grounds these new lows are being predicted?

  • #88576
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    Anonymous
    Participant

    Hi anciano,

    The basic reasons given were the Bank of England have let it be known that interest rates at 0% next year is an option they will not have a problem with. Which is OK for the domestic economy but any investors in sterling will take their money out if they get no return and put it into euros or dollars. Then when the economy recovers it is expected that the bank of england will start buying pounds and selling billions of euros to reverse the decline……thats the theory anyway

  • #88577
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    Anonymous
    Participant

    Thanks for that, but surely the ECB isn’t going to be far behind the BOE plan. The basic economic issues are much the same in the UK & the Eurozone IMHO, so I really cannot see the base rates having an effect for long.

    I guess I’d better put my pounds into a long term savings account though 🙁

  • #88578
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    Hi Anciano,

    I agree with you, its just the BOE have said it. I think the problems would be getting the ECB to all agree to it. Maybe it could lead to the break up of the Euro if the pain gets too much as they all want interest rates at different levels for different reasons.

  • #88583
    Profile photo of mike
    mike
    Participant

    @El anciano wrote:

    I guess I’d better put my pounds into a long term savings account though 🙁

    I’m thinking about this. I can see that the UK government will slash base rates to zero but will the banks follow them? They can’t raise money through the money markets so deposits should be of value to them. That’s why I don’t want to commit my money now for long deals that offer base rate plus 1%, for example, because I think that the banks will have to offer better deals next year to get deposits.

    Of course I could be wrong but I don’t feel that now is the right time to commit and I’d prefer to be flexible because God knows what’s coming next. Scarey, innit?

  • #88585
    Profile photo of GJ
    GJ
    Participant

    Just read this on BBC website
    Quote . After commission and handling fees were charged, customers at some airports got just 197.13 euros for £200 on Saturday.

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7782234.stm

  • #88586
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    Anonymous
    Participant

    If the pound falls much more than 1 euro then perhaps will be time to join the euro. That will have a high political price but perhaps will be the only option for the UK when the moment arrives. Let see what happens.

  • #88588
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    Anonymous
    Participant

    I have heard speculation about this quite a lot over the last few weeks, but I cannot see why this would mean it is time to join the Euro, it would seem that that is a bad idea. I also cannot see why this would make it the certainty many are predicting.

    Still, as ever, time will tell.

  • #88589
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    Anonymous
    Participant

    Britain would not be allowed to join the euro at such low rates. In addition the 8% public deficit we are running is against the rules.

    It is I think likley that the £ will slide further but do be wary of currency exchange company ‘predictuons’ – they are in the business to make money and will encourage forward buying in the current market – locking unsuspecting customers into the current very low rates. More neutral commentators are expecting the £ to bounce back in 2009 though certainly not to £1/€1.40 more likely to €1.20. Even they may be entirely wrong – predicting the future in these things is very difficult – look at the oil price over the last year! If you can avoid exchanging large sums for a while it’s probably better to wait.

  • #88591
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    The lower pound will help british tourism and exports so I am sure you all have familly who will benefit from that. It is of course very bad for expats.

  • #88592
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    One could say now is good time to sell, if you can make a decent, rather that great return, on your property, as you won’t lose as much on the exchange from euro to £. Does anyone have any arguments to this statement?

  • #88593
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    Anonymous
    Participant

    Not at all, prices here got way out of control. But people selling and taking the cash back to the UK can still do OK. And in many cases make a good profit.

  • #88594
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    I suppose it is just a question of making that sale and how long the exchange rates will stay at this level. Some people feel it will stay like this for at least six months. I have no opinion as I am not versed enough in finance or on how exchange rates work. What are others thoughts on this?

    At least their is some relief on the euribor is going down!

  • #88595
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    Anonymous
    Participant

    Much of Spanish property is so unrealistically priced that it is near impossible to sell – & of course especially to British buyers right now

  • #88597
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    Did I read the OP correctly??

    1 Pound predicted to buy 80 cents !!! That would be be almsot a 50% fall in sterling.

    I think the fall has been engineered by the UK government. Global companies are looking for cost reductions, I work for one in high technology, work will be pulled from other development centres and moved to the UK or work continued in the UK. Work is not going to close in the UK when it’s now 30% cheaper, for the sake of keeping European sites open

    Europe is in a far worse condition that the UK, it’s just that it’s less transparent and hence the real situation is not being reported, the cracks are showing and cannot be covered up for ever.

    Spain: highest unemployment in Europe, no notably industry other than building

    Portugal: Similar to Spain not as bad on the building front

    Italy: Bankrupt

    Greece: Same as above more corrupt than Spain

    Germany: Already in recession

    France: better

    Plus all the new EE countries that are screaming out for EU funds.

    The UK is not yet technically in recession.

    The Bank of England puts out statements about 0% interest rates and the ECB state that the current rates need to feed into the system before another adjustment will be made.

    Have a read of this (it’s rather long)

    http://eurowatch.blogspot.com/2008/12/so-just-when-does-spains-twin-deficit.html

  • #88609
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    Hi Jp1

    Yes you did read correctly, the prediction was from 80 to 90 cents before the bank of England would have to step in.

    However I cant see any reason or logic when people suggest that when it is 1 to 1 to join the euro. That makes no economic sense at all, and if it did the government could easily deflate the pound right now and join. So in my opinion we wont be joining in the near future based on a pound collapse.

    I think the pound will recover next year when the euro comes under a lot of pressure. At the moment the only thing that keeps the euro rising is its a more attractive option for investors as interest rates are more stable and have been for long time than the dollar or pound. I know they have been lower in general until recently, but the stability make things safer for investors.

    I still have the opinion that the euro myth will eventually lead to its downfall. Individual countries like Spain cant survive with the euro with an economy based on tourism and constrution.

    My opinion is this, America sneezes and we get a cold, but the Euro is going to get the flu.

  • #88610
    Profile photo of katy
    katy
    Spectator

    That is my opinion too, just hope it doesn’t take too long 🙂

  • #88611
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    Anonymous
    Participant

    I do wonder if the weakness of the pound is a deliberate move on the part of the UK, as this will help UK business to continue exporting through the global recession.

    It seems a bit like the spin doctors are busy again (I do wonder what Alastair Campbell is doing these days :D)

  • #88613
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    Anonymous
    Participant

    It’s not Alastair Campbell I’m worried about, it’s Peter Benjamin (meddling-in-everything) Mandelson who I fear, lurking around the corridors of power. (I refuse to call him “Lord”).
    He is hell bent on getting us to join the Euro.

  • #88627
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    Countries with their own currencies can see their problems very early through the exchange rate mechanism. Countries that are bubble wrapped in one all embracing single currency have to wait for their problems to emerge. IMHO the UK will be well on the road to recovery while Spain still has it’s head buried deep in the sand in total denial of its problems. Perhaps a few euro members will go back to their old currencies in order to manage their own economies.

    The BOEBR reduction is just a gesture, its the 3 months LIBOR rate that sets interest rates both charged and offered. At the current 3.13% banks will add circa 2.0% to a) make a profit, and b) to be able to offer competitive savings rates, there will be no 2.0% mortgages.

    When UK and US problems started to come out of the woodwork many UK ex pats residing in Spain honestly thought that they were immune from contamination. God only knows what the real state of the Spanish ecomomy is, we have had to swallow some very bitter pills of late and in so doing have aired our dirty washing in public, what if Spain has just hidden its dirty wasing in laundry basket after laundry basket.

    My opinion, for what its worth is, that Spanish property prices will fall to 50% of what they were in their pomp. UK house prices will fall by a total of circa 20% before starting to firm up. The falls are irrelevent if you are not selling, and we are short of circa one million properties, unlike Spain that has one million too many. 2010 could be the time to snap up a bargain in Spain if prices continue to fall and the pound strengthens against the Euro. You guys who are drawing UK pensions or are relient on UK savings will have to draw in your belts a couple of notches and be patient, things can only get better.

  • #88629
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    Anonymous
    Participant

    Just received this email from Worldwide Currencies – make of it as you will:

    One of the UK clearing Banks has just sent out its end of quarter Stg euro view for the year ahead in which it states that in their opinion given the recent sharp sell off in the pound it is now almost certainly well oversold. It goes on to add that the last time the pound was as oversold as this was in 1990 when it eventually recovered sharply, they go on to conclude that in their view 2009 has the potential to be a very positive year for the pound.

    A

  • #88630
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    Makes sense too me 😀

    Sellers here, who want to take profits back to the UK had better get a sale soon if this is right!

  • #88632
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    The feared moment arrived:

    Some people getting less than 1 euro per pound at airports:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/3776820/Holidaymakers-get-less-than-1-euro-per-pound-at-airports.html

  • #88633
    Profile photo of katy
    katy
    Spectator

    1.07 today in Gibraltar…still bad though! If it continues into the summer this will really hit the costas.

  • #88636
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    When it reaches parity, entry becomes easy. You call it the ‘Pound Euro’ and shopkeepers do not need to adjust prices.

    For all it’s faults – If we are going to be in Europe then we should go for the same currency, rather than sitting on the sidelines and cherry-picking.

  • #88638
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    Anonymous
    Participant

    Hi,

    There is no chance of it reaching parity and then the government saying its time to join. That would be political suicide here for Labour. To admit it has to join the Euro because it couldnt save the Pound is just never going to happen.

    I still believe the Euro will start to break up when the whole European econonical situation comes undone. At the moment it is held together by smoke and mirrors.

  • #88656
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    Anonymous
    Participant

    It’s now definitely confirmed that this fall is UK government engineering.

    It’s fallen nearly 3% today on the release of the BOE minutes. Namely that they considered a bigger cut but feared the implications on the pound.

    Now by releasing this very same news it’s had exactly the same effect, but without the need to lower rates that would affect savers.

    Effectively you can’t get a mortgage less than 4~5% in the UK, higher than when interest rates were nowhere near 2%.

    It’s being engineered to fall to make UK PLC cheaper.

  • #88657
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    I’m told that if you change money at the airport now you get less than parity.

    Mark

  • #88658
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    Im wondering when to change my Spanish office here into an office to sell cheap houses to Spaniards………………….

  • #88659
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    This is just madness, the pound falls because we anticipate rate cuts, then because we have rate cuts, and then because the minutes of the meeting says that rate cuts were needed.

    Oh, well not long now before the reversal I think 😀

  • #88661
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    Dont forget, a lot of this smoke and mirrors is also to make sure that any falls in the market happen before they announce more rates cuts so any drops are built in slowly now and dont cause panic on the days cuts are made.

    Now we know there will be more rate cuts, because they have already told us in advance.

  • #88663
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    Anonymous
    Participant

    Changed a few thousand pounds sterling this morning at my Greek bank and got 1.10 euros to the pound.

    Looking at the live forex chart just now, I wonder if I did it just in time. It’s just touched 93.20p to the euro, that makes about 1.07 euros to the pound. Life almost seems like a casino-game at the moment.

  • #88672
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    Anonymous
    Participant

    The mpc always releases minutes two weeks after every meeting, they know the release will have an impact on the markets. The ecb release the minutes of there meetings after 30 years have elapsed. Another example of the difference in the transparency of the two committees. And why the euro zone is full of surprises yet to come.

    Ditter

  • #88717
    Profile photo of mike
    mike
    Participant

    @maximus wrote:

    When it reaches parity, entry becomes easy. You call it the ‘Pound Euro’ and shopkeepers do not need to adjust prices.

    For all it’s faults – If we are going to be in Europe then we should go for the same currency, rather than sitting on the sidelines and cherry-picking.

    maybe it would be a better idea to see which countries drop out of the euro before we try to join it. Germany aren’t happy with all the bail outs, will they stick around and if they don’t will the euro seem as attractive?

    Personally, I would never join regardless of how big and powerful it gets because we need to develop our own economy and not one that faceless bureaucrats would like us to have.

  • #88719
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    Anonymous
    Participant

    I can’t think of a worse time to join the Euro.

    It’s a tough enough decission to make when the markets and economy are good, who, in their right mind, would decide now is a good time with all the financial turmoil going on? It’s hardly a good backround for such a big move.

    Most analysts are predicting a large fall in the strenght of the Euro by Spring 2009.

    I have decided to turn my attention to Christmas for the next couple of weeks and see just what things are like when everyone returns to work in the new year.

  • #88722
    Profile photo of katy
    katy
    Spectator

    @peter Good wrote:

    I have decided to turn my attention to Christmas for the next couple of weeks and see just what things are like when everyone returns to work in the new year.

    Me too 🙂 We or off on holiday after Christmas, with money changed long ago at a good rate 8) Will be tighten the belts by March though if the situation doesn’t improve, we are not only down on the exchange rate we have lost out on our investments too 🙁

  • #88723
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    @katy wrote:

    Me too 🙂 We or off on holiday after Christmas, with money changed long ago at a good rate 8) Will be tighten the belts by March though if the situation doesn’t improve, we are not only down on the exchange rate we have lost out on our investments too 🙁

    I’m pleased to hear someone is giving Christmas some serious thought katy 🙂

    It’s my favourite time of the year, guess I never grew up!

    I would happily swap the next few weeks with Chris in North Yorkshire though.

    I used to love Christmas shopping in Harrogate and Northallerton. Probably the only thing I really miss about the UK.

    Oh and country pubs 8)

  • #88916
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    Just a couple of cents to go to reach parity.

    Forex chart today: 1.02 euros/£1.

  • #88917
    Profile photo of Inez
    Inez
    Participant

    Its still christmas and new year to look forward to. No more bad news allowed until the 8th january please!! 😆

  • #88918
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    Anonymous
    Participant

    ok Inez…..just for you….guess what, it’s bounced back to 1.5 ! 😀

  • #88921
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    Hi

    As Charlie posted on another thread
    Its unchartered waters.
    Have to agree with everything Blawes 1 has posted on the Euro as it just not adding up with the way it is.
    When the bail out of other Euro Countries start watch the toys start coming out of the pram.
    Possible zero interest rates around the corner and the rental returns on property that may in the future show capital appreciation may be the better option than leaving money in some Banks or investments.
    Its going to take someone with either a crystal ball to forecast interest rates, stock markets or indeed property in 2009.
    Perhaps time to sit tight and try to ride the waves

    Just Frank 8)

  • #88927
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    Anonymous
    Participant

    Perhaps everyone should stop second guessing where property values will/will not go until say….this time next year? 😉

  • #88929
    Profile photo of Chris McCarthy
    Chris McCarthy
    Participant

    @peter Good wrote:

    I would happily swap the next few weeks with Chris in North Yorkshire though.

    I used to love Christmas shopping in Harrogate and Northallerton. Probably the only thing I really miss about the UK.

    Oh and country pubs 8)

    Well Peter I have to tell you, it has been a bit special for me too!

    First time in many a long year I haven’t worked up till Christmas Eve and then back to the desk the day after Boxing Day. In fact I haven’t even turned on my computer for 8 days or so, which has also not happened since I first got one about 15 years ago.

    Back to Spain in the first week of January though, and like Claire, I think I am going to stop second guessing where property values are going, where exchange rates are going, and then try to enjoy what is possible today.

    Harrogate was wonderful this Christmas, but I know the coast is going to be splendid for a round of golf or two in January and a lovely place to go to work as well.

    Its all swings and roundabouts really.

  • #88935
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    Frank: “This is unchartered waters alright and the boat hasnt even got a damn rudder”

    “Perhaps time to sit tight and try to ride the waves”

    Let’s not forget: Time to batten down the hatches, stormy weather ahead ……………..

  • #88939
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    @Claire wrote:

    Perhaps everyone should stop second guessing where property values will/will not go until say….this time next year? 😉

    Actually I find it makes interesting reading when one looks back on threads like this one.

    Have just been taking a look at Mark’s ‘Spanish property market 2008: soft landing or train wreck?’ thread, started exactly a year ago, and people’s comments are interesting to read now.

    And who were the 40% who voted for a soft landing? 😯

    http://www.spanishpropertyinsight.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=2781&postdays=0&postorder=asc&start=0

  • #88944
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    Anonymous
    Participant

    And who were the 40% who voted for a soft landing?

    Not me!! 🙂

  • #88946
    Profile photo of Inez
    Inez
    Participant

    Nor me!!

  • #88947
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    Charlie Posted 😀
    Let’s not forget: Time to batten down the hatches, stormy weather ahead ……………..

    There screwed well down gal.
    Made my decision to complete and will go down with the ship if I have too.
    If its my fault or not no ones coming to bail me out.

    Note .Didnt vote as I hate guessing anything and impossible to put a figure on an overall percentage drop unless you have a common acurate starting point.( looks like a train crash though )
    As we can see its anyones guess where some of us will be next year and so will have to take it month by month.
    One day we will enter 2020 and then I may get my money back 😕

    Until then will have to fight on and make the best of it. 😆

    Wished everyone a happy Christmas now sincere good wishes to all and hopefully 2009 wil not be as bad as some are guessing 😉

    Just Frank 8)

  • #88948
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    Anonymous
    Participant

    Well, the financial pages of the newspaper have made for very grim reading this afternoon. Maybe my New Years resolution will be NOT to read them!
    Nobody can alter what is happening to the world economy, so I guess we will all have to find our own ways of dealing with it on a day by day, month by month basis and hope and pray we all survive without to many cuts and bruises.
    I personally, am looking forward to 2009 with my son getting married on May 1st and my daughter’s second baby due on June 1st. I then have a “special” birthday July 3rd. 🙁 So for our family it will be a year of celebration come what may.

    I wish everyone a very happy and healthy New Year. 🙂

    ( Let’s hope it will not be as bad as we may fear.)

  • #88954
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    Anonymous
    Participant

    Claire

    i sort of feel that the shi* really has got to hit the fan in Spain, to force various change that will hopefully start the long road to recovery.

    The ‘kings new clothes’, feeling from the government, the fact property movement is almost stagnant, the exchange rate, along with high profile cases like Priors, still not being resolved and so many other cases of corruption/injustice/overbuild still not being faced head on, all go to make me think that the train must crash pretty soon, then who knows? Common sense might even get a look in, if enough people demand it?

    This has to be the year of big change in Spain…surely???

    Anyway, Happy new year, and best wishes to everyone in 2009, and a special and huge THANKS to those who are pro-active in trying to bring about justice.

  • #88964
    Profile photo of rt21
    rt21
    Participant

    Even if the s***t hits the fan I cannot honestly see big changes happenning in Spain. In my opinion they will just try muddling on

    From what I have read Spain has been a backwater for centuries and failed to develop in line with other european countries. Corruption at government level and in the courts has always been rife and the current crop of politicians and judges are simply following previous traditions. They appear to have ridden roughshod over the general populations for generations and have no concept of individual rights.

    Another complicating factor is that power seems to be shared between the state and the regions, which is a recipe for stagnation particularly in terms of rectifying the abuses of the different levels of government.

    Perhaps the witholding of funds by the E.U. might have sufficient leverage to change behaviour but I have some doubts about whether the E.U. would actually do this. After all this might create a precedent which MEPs might be wary of in case it was used against their own countries in the future.

    Richard

  • #88966
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    Very true rt21

  • #88967
    Profile photo of Anonymous
    Anonymous
    Participant

    rt21

    you are probably right. For the sake of Spain itself, and for all of us cheated, and those fighting so hard for change, then i’m trying to stay positive. I think change can happen, but only with huge pressure on those responsible from inside and outside Spain.

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